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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
COVID-19’s Impact on the P&C (Re)Insurance Industry
In addition to being a significant industry loss event, COVID-19 has also been a unique challenge for actuaries, given the lack of historical precedent, the ongoing nature of the event, its broad and varied impact across different lines of business, the lack of relevant data available, and the high degree of uncertainty.
Brian Brown will share a consulting actuary’s perspective on the impact of COVID-19 on the industry as a whole, including the latest available insight on the magnitude and nature of the impact by line of business.
Justin Brenden will discuss his experience in estimating COVID-19 losses at a reinsurance company across most of the affected lines of business, including not only the actuarial analysis, but also the accounting implications and the communication of those results.
Source:
2020 Annual Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Caryn Carmean
Panelists:
Brian Brown, Justin Brenden
Prosperity Ahead or Not?
The economy never sleeps, and neither can your business. As the U.S. heads toward the 2020 elections, and the E.U. and U.K. wrangle over Brexit, Todd Buchholz shows you the forces that will determine whether the economy climbs higher and what it means for you.
· Discover how demographics, technology, and globalization are reshaping the economy and our future
· Pinpoint the signs of stock market rallies, and the warning signs of slumps
· Identify the political pressures on trade, debt, and interest rates from the U.S. to the E.U. to China
Source:
2020 Annual Meeting
Type:
Featured Speaker
Moderators:
Caryn Carmean
Panelists:
Steven Armstrong, Todd Buchholz
Pandemic Risk Management: Contingency Planning and Allocation
Repeated history of pandemics such as SARS, Swine flu, Ebola, Zika and COVID-19 have shown that contingency planning for pandemics is a necessary component of risk management for all organizations in modern society. Today’s technology allows us to use epidemiological models to predict the spread of infectious diseases in the similar way that meteorological models are used to forecast weather. Taking advantage of epidemic models, we can project the dynamics of demand and supply for medical resources at different phases of a pandemic. Such predictions provide quantitative bases for decision makers of healthcare systems to understand the potential imbalance of supply and demand, and to address disparities of access to critical medical supply across different subsidiaries.
Source:
2020 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Caryn Carmean
Panelists:
Linfeng Zhang, Wing Fung Chong, Runhuan Feng
Avoiding Adverse Selection
The changing and growing used vehicle market has given insurers and opportunity to create a new underwriting/pricing variable. Not all used vehicles are in good condition and vehicles in poor condition or heavily damaged are shown to have much higher loss costs. By more accurately pricing used vehicles, insurers can save one to two points to their bottom line.
Source:
2020 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Richard Haines
Panelists:
Christopher Whipple, David McDonald, Brandon Wockenfuss
Determining Vehicle Symbols Using Machine Learning Techniques
Vehicle symbols (VS) are codes that group vehicles experiencing similar loss costs. Insurers writing motor liability coverage would typically charge vehicles belonging to the same VS group the same price — all policyholder characteristics being equal. In practice, a numeric code is assigned to a vehicle which corresponds to a loss relativity. Loss relativities typically vary by peril.
The presentation will:
a) Briefly review current uses and implementations regarding VS.
b) Show how to apply suitable clustering algorithms for mixed data on typical insurance data sets.
c) Compare different approaches in terms of predictive performance and practical usability.
Source:
2020 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Richard Haines
Panelists:
Marco De Virgilis, Giorgio Spedicato
COVID Has Exposed a Massive Secret about Home Insurance
How much does occupancy change the risk profile for a home insurance policy? What does this mean for your company and why should you pay close attention? What is virtual occupancy and how can insurers leverage to gain a competitive advantage?
Until now, the impact of occupancy has been a theoretical supposition. But COVID has given us the gift of putting data behind that assumption.
This session will be shocking. And depending on your outlook, it is either alarming or exciting as you think about the future of home insurance and what this means to your company!
Jon-Michael Kowall, an insurance industry veteran, is focused on helping the industry adopt and leverage the massive amount of change happening in our world.
Source:
2020 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Richard Haines
Panelists:
Jon-Michael Kowall, Orlando Machado, Andy Kearns
Formulating Reserve Risk
This session explains how to derive reserve risk from a triangle of ultimate loss estimates. The ultimate losses are assumed to be computed by an “Actuary in a Box” using a fixed algorithm. The resulting reserve risk depends on both the data and the method used for estimating ultimate. The presentation focuses on the closed-form methods using a triangle of ultimate loss estimates, including the Siegenthaler Method (2018) and the Rehman-Klugman (2010) method. These approaches can also be viewed as a generalization of the closed-form Mack formula and its one year Mertz-Wultrich extension when the Chain Ladder method is used. The session will provide useful context defining one-year risk and comparing the different methods. Case studies will be explored using hypothetical data.
Source:
2020 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Richard Haines
Panelists:
Ira Robbin, Yu Shi "Andy" Feng
The Secret Life of Trend
Actuaries use loglinear trend regularly. However, there are several aspects of trend that are not common knowledge among actuaries. For example, loglinear trend is actually a quasi-weighted average of the points being trended, which has ramifications for the the way that trend is affected by uncertainty regarding the true point values. For example, the loglinear model for trend is not the only model for trend. Two alternatives involving random drift (Brownian motion) are presented, one with the point-by-point error associated with regression, and one without it, are presented.
Further, there are alternate algorithms for computing trend. Trend estimation is discussed in all three contexts and using those alternate algorithms, credibility formulas for trend are provided.
Source:
2020 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Richard Haines
Panelists:
Joseph Boor, Jeffery Smith
Weapons of Math Destruction
Cathy O’Neil’s book "Weapons of Math Destruction" has highlighted the social impacts and the downside on society of some of the widely used predictive models. Her book highlights the unintended consequences and sometimes apparent discriminatory impact of the use of models on such disparate areas as education, employee hiring decision, insurance and the criminal justice system.
The panelists for this session will discuss the book from the vantage point of their own analytics experience and research. The panel will represent diverse perspectives and include actuaries and a public servant.
Source:
2020 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tyler Wykoff
Panelists:
Louise Francis, Amy Brener, Robert Miccolis, Christopher Monsour, Nina Ahmad
Building Dynamic Simulation Models
This session describes the building of a dynamic simulation model for training purposes. The emphasis is that these models are home-grown and thus customized to the particular needs of your company. I will describe two separate simulation models, one for Personal Auto and one for Specialty Accounts. The actual models require four teams to go through three rounds of strategic pricing selections to attempt to grow while remaining profitable. This proposed interactive session will require the participants to run through one round of the personal auto model, after which we will calculate the results and discuss the apparent strategies of each team and the level of success for those strategies in relation to the other teams. By actually running through one round the session participants will get a feel for the power of this training tool.
Source:
2020 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tyler Wykoff
Panelists:
Lijuan Zhang, L. Weltmann
The New Workplace: Trends for 2021 and Beyond
This session will present the results from a recent comprehensive survey of members of CAS Student Central, the CAS’s membership program for university students. CAS Student Central includes over 8,500 members from over 700 different universities. The survey will inform actuarial hiring managers, candidate program coordinators, and recruiters about the actuarial talent pipeline. Survey results will cover demographics of desired employees and the strategies employers are using successfully. Results may also provide insight into recruitment in a virtual/hybrid world, what students are seeking from employers in the current (and post-) COVID-19 environment, and more.
In addition, the International Association of Black Actuaries (IABA) will present results from their IABA Work Culture Survey, which explored attitudes from its members in areas such as relationship management, work environment and career development within their companies.
Source:
2020 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kiki Wang
Panelists:
Kendall Williams, Gloria Asare, ACAS, MAAA, Tamar Gertner
We’re All “Getting Social”, But is It Really Social Inflation?
There has been a lot of discussion about recent social inflation, but many of the identified factors would have been considered general inflation in the past. In this roundtable we’ll explore current trends in inflation with a focus on similarities and differences from the past.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Roundtable Discussion
Moderators:
Shelby Wolff
Panelists:
Christina (Tina) Gwilliam
Reserves Call Papers
In this session researchers Mark Shapland and Matthias Lindholm will share their most recent research as presenting in the 2020 Reserves Call Paper program.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Mark Shapland, Mathias Lindholm
What is the Last ASOP you read
The panelists will lead a discussion on various ASOPs based on audience responses to what is the last ASOP you read and other questions.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Roundtable Discussion
Panelists:
Patricia Teufel, Laura Maxwell
Effective Governance: Property/Casualty Reserving for Boards
Reserving is one of the top considerations for boards and audit committees, but often technical complexity prevents enough depth of understanding and inhibits effective oversight. The presenters found little literature to help non-actuarial directors in this area and so wrote a paper on this topic in plain English. Avoiding actuarial technicalities the paper and the presentation offer real-world insights into how reserving works. Considering the standpoint of a director, the paper explains common causes of problems, and provides the key questions to be posed to the actuary – it is essentially a “how to guide” for directors involved with reserving.
Whilst the paper is written primarily for non-actuaries, this presentation should help reserving actuaries perform their job better by offering a wider perspective - for example discussing when estimates may contain unintended biases. In particular, the paper should also aid actuaries in communication with boards.
The authors, all senior and
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Pam Sealand Reale
Panelists:
Patricia Teufel, Brian Brown, Steve Wilson
Current Issues for Your 2021 Statement of Actuarial Opinion and Reserve Report
Much has changed for appointed actuaries in the last 12 months. Covid-19 and the resulting impact on insurance products brings new considerations for development of reserves and writing of Statements of Actuarial Opinion. In addition, the NAIC has new requirements for qualifications and documentation of qualifications as well as new requirements for attestation and CE logging with the CAS. Join speakers from the industry and regulation to discuss these changes to help you prepare to write your 2021 actuarial opinions.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Donald Hendriks
Panelists:
Kendall Williams, Miriam Fisk, Jeffrey Carlson
Professionalism Trivia
During this session by the Committee on Professionalism Education, participants will use their cell phones to participate in a real-time Trivia game! This session will qualify for Continuing Education in the area of Professionalism.
Questions will focus on the new NAIC qualification Standards for appointed actuaries, general qualification standards, and ASOP's related to reserving practice.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kiki Wang
Panelists:
Patrick Gilhool, Kendall Williams, John Gleba
An Insider's View of Reshaping our Disrupted Industry
The Institutes is the premier knowledge provider to those interested in risk management and insurance. As its President/CEO, Pete Miller has a unique view of all parts of risk management and insurance. This wide-ranging discussion will focus on both the short and long term direction of the industry and will include discussions about how COVID, technology, regulation and economics will help shape the future of actuaries and other jobs going forward.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Pam Sealand Reale
Panelists:
Pete Miller
Picture This: Using Data Visualization to Drive Results
According to John Tukey, former chairman of Princeton’s statistics department, “the greatest value of a picture is when it forces us to notice what we never expected to see.” In this session we will briefly introduce the topic of data visualization and provide examples of visuals in action. Examples will include dashboards oriented around streamlined reserve diagnostics and intuitive benchmarking against industry results, as well as an investigation of advanced visualization applications and best practices.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mike McComis
Panelists:
Nathaniel Loughin, Jennifer Andrzejewski, Alexis Patrick
Telehealth Impacts on Medical Malpractice & Workers Compensation
Telehealth is impacting the way medical professionals treat patients and how carriers manage the medical treatment of injured workers. This session will discuss how telehealth is impacting the frequency, severity, and types of claims for workers compensation and medical malpractice. The impact of COVID-19 on telehealth will also be discussed as some states and CMS have made changes to regulations and requirements.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Mancuso
Panelists:
Frank Pecht, Brian Reardon, Brian Fillion
Transportation is Advancing Rapidly, Will Commercial Insurance Keep Up the Pace?
Transportation is rapidly evolving as connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technology becomes more commonplace. Dozens of cities have already piloted driverless shuttles and ridesharing companies have been carrying passengers in autonomous vehicles for years. Goods are also being carried by CAVs with autonomous trucks successfully navigating cross-country routes, while groceries and packages are being carried the last mile by unmanned vehicles. At this point, most of the focus has been placed on how insurance will adapt to CAVs for personal use, but there is a looming impact on commercial lines that needs to be considered. We will discuss the state of this technology and how it may reshape commercial insurance, such as auto, workers’ compensation, cyber, and inland marine. Actuaries need to gain an understanding of this evolving technology in order to begin quantifying the impact CAVs will have on company stakeholders and to create effective strategies to account for this new risk in
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Donald Hendriks
Panelists:
Drew Groth, Jonathan Riehl
NCCI and WCRIB: Workers’ Compensation - What’s Now? What’s Next?
A summary of the evolving state of the Workers’ Compensation system as it is being affected by COVID-19 pandemic impacts including dramatic reductions in the workforce, reduced claim activity during the stay-at-home orders, an influx of COVID-19 claims and a potential surge of post-termination claims.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
David Bellusci, Donna Glenn
Legacy Liabilities – Keep or Sell
Many companies have legacy asbestos, pollution, sexual misconduct, workers’ compensation and other liabilities. These exposures still generate new claims and some open claims continue to develop.
Management wants to focus on its current business plan and upcoming business opportunities. However, other third parties like AM Best and Stock Analyst are concerned with the legacy liabilities. Therefore some management teams have reinsured or sold the liabilities to third parties to create finality. Other companies have decided to keep the liabilities on their Balance Sheet.
This session will discuss some recent deals and the type of analysis used by buyers and potential sellers of the liabilities. Some key items include- variability of results,quality of claims staff and how the actuaries interact with the claims staff to produce its work product, Claims/Insureds that have the potential to result in a very large claims, and new claim activity in the last 3-5 years
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Pam Sealand Reale
Panelists:
Brian Brown, Rita Zona, Deborah Price
Covid in the Workplace: Who Pays?
Roundtable participants will discuss the complex and evolving issues surrounding who is responsible for workplace-related Covid costs.
Some workers have contracted/will contract Covid from workplace exposure. If so, does their employer have workers’ compensation liability? How does the shift in liability from health insurance (if the employee has health insurance) to workers’ compensation impact the employee, employer, payer, and provider? Is workplace-required Covid testing a health insurance liability or a worker safety expense? Does it matter if the employer is fully insured or self-insured? What if the person being tested and submitting claims to an employer-sponsored health plan is an employee’s dependent who works for another employer?
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Roundtable Discussion
Moderators:
Pam Sealand Reale
Panelists:
Tia Sawhney
Healthcare Reserving, Including COVID-19 Considerations
As is all too obvious to everyone attending CLRS virtually, COVID-19 has impacted almost every aspect of our lives and our businesses. Short of frontline healthcare providers, one would be hard-pressed to name an industry that has been impacted more by COVID-19 than the Health Insurance industry. As an FSA, a healthcare reserving expert, and an actuarial specialist auditing health plan reserves for Deloitte & Touche, Todd Sherman has been immersed in understanding the financial impact of COVID-19 with all of his health plan clients, both large and small.
This session will start with a discussion of Healthcare reserving, comparing and contrasting to Property-Casualty reserving. This will set the stage for a discussion on the challenges in setting reserves in the face of the tremendous unknown caused by COVID 19.
Property-Casualty reserving actuaries are encouraged to attend and contribute to the discussion of this interesting topic. Healthcare reserves are really very similar to PC
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Pam Sealand Reale
Panelists:
David Sherman
