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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Professionalism Considerations and the Reserving Actuary
The session will provide attendees with professionalism considerations when performing work related reserve evaluations and Statutory Statement of Opinions.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Donald Hendriks
Panelists:
William Wilkins, Mike Speedling
Pandemics
COVID-19 has become the dominant story of 2020, presenting health and economic challenges that have transformed the way we live and work. The insurance and reinsurance industries have been no exception, as they have had to deal with not only operational challenges in conducting business, but also loss impacts across many lines of business that could range from moderate to massive.
This panel of industry experts will discuss the latest developments in the ongoing pandemic, including pandemic modeling takeaways and thoughts, updates on potential policy coverage concerns and determinations, and perspectives on COVID's likely impacts to the industry as a whole.
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Franklin Nutter, Ernesto Palomo, Doug Fullam
State of the Reinsurance Market
The general session for the virtual Reinsurance Seminar will bring together industry leaders to discuss the state of the industry during a unique and challenging time. With a pandemic and social inflation following on the heels of a series of active loss years for property lines of business, the reinsurance market place is working its way through the challenges and opportunities of an uncertain marketplace. For this panel, discussion topics will include:
• How is the reinsurance industry handling the ongoing pandemic from an operational and financial perspective?
• What might the pricing environment look like in the upcoming year?
• How might initiatives to bring new technology or innovation to the reinsurance sector be impacted by the current market situation?
• Five years from now, how do you expect the reinsurance industry to look different from today?
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Keith Wolfe, Amy Stern, Jean-Paul Conoscente, John Bender
The Japanese Market – Navigating the Storms and Post Loss Challenges
Significant loss activity in two consecutive years turned a highly profitable major International market into deficit for reinsurers. We explore the impact of recent loss activity on primary insurance business, how insurers have adjusted their purchasing behavior and how some reinsurers’ views of Japan have evolved.
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Karthi Indran, William Thompson
Wheels: Commercial Auto, Another Dip in the Road
This session provides a year-end 2019 holistic update to the Commercial Auto industry experience and trends, most recently presented at the May CAS On-line Webinar (“as part of the 4-year Wheels series”). In addition to reviewing items such as lengthening LDFs and large loss pressures on ILFs, a comparison between commercial and personal auto trends will be presented.
A company actuary/underwriting managers perspective will be given on the state of the market, including the expected impact of various societal and jury impacts. Impacts on the portfolio and potential underwriting responses, as well as discussion of the significant issues and pausing impacts from Covid-19, will be given.
To also help frame potential scenarios, this session will Include a historical look to prior shock events including the Great Recession on premium level dips, troughs and recovery shapes, and a framework for measuring similar impacts under various Covid-19 emerging scenarios.
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
John Buchanan, Terry Knull
Professionalism Trivia
During this session by the Committee on Professionalism Education, participants will use their cell phones to participate in a real-time Trivia game! This session will qualify for Continuing Education in the area of Professionalism, as many questions will relate to Actuarial Standards of Practice, the US Qualification Standards, and/or the Code of Conduct.
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Peter Royek, John Gleba
Drivers of Social Inflation and the Impact on Casualty Results
The topic of this session is the drivers of social inflation and the impact on casualty results. Panelists will approach this issue from several different perspectives. The first panelist will review evidence of increased social inflation and the socio-economic drivers. It will include a review of the trends in court statistics and in jury verdicts. He will then discuss drivers including increased legal advertising, developments in litigation financing, and income inequality. The second panelist is an attorney and reinsurance claims department leader. Based on her experience working on large cases, she will discuss the increased effectiveness of the plaintiff’s bar and some of the tactics they have been employing to drive their success; thereby, causing strong challenges to the insurance industry. Finally, both panelists expect to offer their perspective on how the novel coronavirus pandemic will affect, temporarily or permanently, trends in social inflation.
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
William Wilt, Dana Franzetti
Reputation Risk in Reinsurance Transactions
The US Department of the Treasury published guidance in 2007 on Complex Structured Financial Transactions. Reinsurance could well have triggered some of those principles with transactions that betrayed public trust. In a time of substantial growth targets in our industry the pressure to write deals that could damage individual company's and the reinsurance industry's reputation is high.
In this session, we will review and talk about how reinsurance could run afoul of the CSFT guidance. There will be both actual and hypothetical examples within our industry and in the economy at large.
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Todd Hess
Workers Compensation - Market Update
This session will provide a current view of the US workers compensation market from three perspectives - a primary writer, a reinsurer, and a rating bureau – and will include discussion of recent reactions to COVID-19.
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Bryan Ware, Brett King, Jeff Wittlich
Reinsurance from the Ceded Re Perspective
This session will include insight from senior professionals on the (re)insurance market, issues and lessons learned from designing an effective reinsurance strategy including the placement process.
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Christopher Rabley, Jeffrey Preston, Christopher Coelho, Andrew Matczak
D&O BC/AC : Before Coronavirus / After Coronavirus
The D&O market was shifting even before the coronavirus. Join us for a discussion on the state of the D&O market. We will cover rate, claims, and marketplace dynamics affecting the D&O market before the coronavirus, as well as viewpoints on how the coronavirus will impact D&O going forward.
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Ricardo Ramotar, Brian Sabia, Brian Finlay
Environmental Liability
We will discuss trends and issues in the environmental liability market. We will provide an overview of different products offered in this market, with a specific focus on current exposures (excluding legacy asbestos and environmental). We will break down the latest frequency and severity trends, rate changes, pricing considerations, and coverage issues including COVID-19.
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Daniel Greer, Mark Vuono, Gregory Heidemann
Med Mal: Pre Covid-19 State of the Market and Post Covid-19 possible impact
In this discussion we will hear from Industry experts on the current state of Medical Malpractice insurance. This session will cover coverage trends, recent large losses, price movements as well as possible scenarios post Covid-19.
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Erik Johnson, Tracy Valentine, Patricia Marzella-Graubart
Racial, Ethnic and Gender Equity in California – Leading-Edge Legislation and the Impact on Bodily Injury Loss Reserves
California Senate Bill 41 took effect January 2020, supported by a nationwide campaign to reduce racial and gender disparities in litigation outcomes. It will increase the loss reserves needed for bodily injury reserves on California auto, homeowners, and general liability lines.
At present, the claims settlements underlying these reserves are influenced by tables that vary by gender and sometimes by race. Prohibition of “reductions” for race, ethnicity and gender is expected to impose a new floor on claims amounts. The audience will be presented with the example of a boy and a girl, who suffer permanent injury, along with the damages amounts currently calculated for each. The audience will debate disparate impact, on nominally neutral claims amounts.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Roundtable Discussion
Moderators:
Donald Hendriks
Panelists:
Craig Allen
Risk Transfer Testing
This session will describe risk transfer testing requirements, methods, and considerations. Risk transfer from different perspectives from ceding company, assuming reinsurer, and auditor will be examined. The discussion will cover technical aspects of risk transfer analysis and calculation of a contract's expected reinsurer deficit(ERD). Focus will be given to the creation of loss and cash flow models, parametrization, and actuarial considerations in performing an analysis.
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
William Miller, Robert Downs
Stochastic Loss Reserving: A New Perspective from a Dirichlet Model
Forecasting the outstanding claim liabilities to set adequate reserves is critical for a nonlife insurer's solvency. Chain-Ladder and Bornhuetter-Ferguson are two prominent actuarial approaches used for this task. The selection between the two approaches is often ad hoc due to different underlying assumptions. We introduce a Dirichlet model that provides a common statistical framework for the two approaches, with some appealing properties. Depending on the type of information available, the model inference naturally leads to either Chain-Ladder or Bornhuetter-Ferguson prediction. Using claims data on Worker’s compensation insurance from several US insurers, we discuss both frequentist and Bayesian inference.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Shelby Wolff
Panelists:
Peng Shi
Florida Homeowners: The 21st Century Version of Whack-A-Mole
The Florida homeowners insurance market has a number of difficult situations that companies must navigate. This session will focus on the challenges of developing reserve estimates for Florida homeowners exposures. The session will cover how various disruptions unique to the Florida market have impacted claims data, how companies have responded to the situations, and how actuaries handle them in their reserve estimate.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Donald Hendriks
Panelists:
Derek Freihaut, Arthur Randolph, Wes Strickland
The Future of Work is Flexible
To deliver more value to consumers, insurers are adopting advanced analytics and automation across their organizations. Technology is changing how work is done, redefining traditional roles. Technology has also enabled a rapid shift in where work is done, redefining the workplace. What can actuaries due to adapt to a rapidly changing work environment and ensure they remain critically valuable?
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Shelby Wolff
Panelists:
Day Bishop, Stefan Peterson, Taralyn Slusarski
Stochastic Cape Cod: An Old Friend in a New Suit
Many of the existing reserve uncertainty techniques focus on results implied by chain ladder method, which has the advantage of being “automatic”, meaning that with an average ratio selection (say, volume weighted average), the computer can produce a range of ultimate loss estimates with minimal judgmental inputs from the user.
Like chain ladder, Generalized Cape Cod (GCC) method is also “automatic,” which allows it to fit naturally into the existing stochastic frameworks such as bootstrap. Although chain ladder bootstraps can be unstable or produce no coefficient of variation (CoV) in certain realistic reserving scenarios, we show that GCC always returns a CoV and is generally more stable.
Using Excel and open source software, we will demonstrate how actuaries can immediately apply this technique in their next reserve uncertainty study as an additional method or to help solve cases where traditional methods fail.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Shelby Wolff
Panelists:
Enbo Jiang, Jonathan Sappington
Who's Watching Me Now - the IRS?!
Actuaries are familiar with the requirements of state regulation. But there is nothing in the syllabus, or in most actuaries' experience, about the implications that loss reserves have on income - and the consequent interest of the Internal Revenue Service.
This session will provide an overview of the IRS regulations regarding property/casualty insurer loss reserves. We will discuss the overlap and differences between IRS standards and statutory and actuarial standards.
We will review primary source material for the various standards. Legal cases interpreting the IRS regulations will also be discussed. Implicit in this is the definition of what a "reasonable range" is, and the various types of ranges for different circumstances. The process by which the IRS audits reserves, and adjusts them for tax purposes if necessary, will also be discussed.
The presentation will be similar to that given to several regional affiliated, most recently the MAF in March 2020.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Shelby Wolff
Panelists:
Lawrence White
Rated Age Mortality for Lifetime Medical Claims
We will discuss a model for estimating unpaid liabilities for lifetime medical claims, with four steps. The first is to estimate claimant mortality, where we will discuss alternatives to standard methods leveraging recent research from life actuaries. Second, the annual medical payment should be estimated based on recent data. Third, expected medical inflation is applied, and fourth, reinsurance is applied. We will also discuss how to derive stochastic distributions for each of the major inputs
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Shelby Wolff
Panelists:
Jonathan Sappington, Lori Helge
The Robot Reserving Analyst
Modern technology platforms provide reserving teams with additional brain- and muscle-power. How can we best deploy these robots and where can they add most value? What risks can they help mitigate when a team’s ability to interact is compromised (as in the case of Covid-19) and what risks can they introduce? This session will look at how robots and automation utilities augment the work done within a reserving team and consider how it changes how stakeholders interact with both the reserving process and the results.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Shelby Wolff
Panelists:
James Mackay, James Marshall
Recent Environmental Liability Trends
This round table will discuss recent environmental industry loss experience and considerations in evaluating environmental liabilities. We will discuss industry outlook, new EPA sites and the potential impact of a change in administration.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Roundtable Discussion
Moderators:
Michael Mancuso
Panelists:
Kwame Davis, Terri Kremenski
Building a Stochastic Reserve Model with the BRMS Package
The goal of the session is to make creating a Bayesian MCMC stochastic reserve model more accessible to actuaries. The brms package is a macro writer that creates STAN code to run a Bayesian MCMC program using the syntax from the lmer package to describe the model structure in a Mixed Model format. STAN is a powerful tool, but grasping the syntax to build the first model can be a barrier. The lmer syntax is simpler to grasp than the more detailed STAN code which reduces the barrier to writing ones first Bayesian MCMC model. The general sequence of the presentation will be to start with a few exploratory data charts and exhibits. Make some initial selections for the Mixed Model structure. Show the code created to implement and test that model via brms and the STAN code created as well. Review the modeling results via Shiny.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mike McComis
Panelists:
Michael Larsen
What's that line? - Industry Benchmarking
The panel will discuss how they create and use industry benchmarks based on publicly available data in loss reserve analyses. There will also be discussion about professionalism considerations and documentation associated with using benchmark data. Audience participation will be encouraged through discussion of hypothetical loss reserving scenarios.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Roundtable Discussion
Moderators:
Maroun Mourad
Panelists:
Erich Brandt, Darcie Truttmann
