Case Studies in Modernizing the Reserving Function
Many insurers have instituted modernization of their reserving processes. In this round-table discussion, we will speak about the importance of strategic thinking and planning as well as engagement with stakeholders. We will discuss short-term and long-term planning, project management vs. business as usual (BAU), professionalism issues (including technical and peer review, documentation, etc.), and communications. I look forward to also exploring typical challenges that can arise and brainstorm about solutions.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Roundtable Discussion
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Jacqueline Friedland
Use of Machine Learning for Reserving
We will share the substantial work of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) Machine Learning in Reserving Working Party (MLR WP). While machine learning (ML) techniques are widespread in pricing, they are not being adopted widely in reserving. In 2019, the IFoA formed the MLR WP, which includes more than 50 actuaries from around the world, to identify barriers, communicate benefits, and develop research techniques in pragmatic ways. The scope includes:
Find out where the market is on progressing ML
Identify relevant papers
Undertake research, identify gaps, carry out research
Look at specific questions around techniques, such as:
What techniques should be reviewed
Which techniques works best
Incorporating actuarial judgement
Measuring/spotting trends
Quantifying uncertainty
IBNER vs. IBNYR
Using case estimates
Using operational time/claims process
Trust/ethics related to ML in reserving
Identify data sources for te
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Jacqueline Friedland, Sarah MacDonnell, Grainne McGuire, Kevin Kuo, Nigel Carpenter
A Practical Approach to Estimating the Unpaid Claim Liability Distribution
The concept of a simple and practical approach for determining a reasonable estimate of the unpaid claim liability distribution will be described and feedback from the attendees will be encouraged . The approach will rely on information readily available in the Annual Statement, traditional actuarial analyses, and the Actuarial Opinion Summary. How this distribution and approach could be used by Appointed Actuaries and/or regulators to aid in their identification of the underlying causes for uncertainty and in assessing whether an affirmative RMAD should be in the Statement of Actuarial Opinion will be discussed.
Source:
2020 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
John Dawson
Risk Management in Light of the Coronavirus Pandemic
The outbreak of COVID19 is developing into a major asset and liability event for the P&C insurance industry. The first part of this session will go over relevant insurance coverage, potential losses and emerging legislative initiatives arising from this historical event. The second part will cover the financial impact of the ongoing pandemic to (re)insurers, the lessons we are learning, and how our industry could help the society to get through this difficult time.
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Kudakwashe Chibanda
Panelists:
Dustin Loeffler, Zoheb Noorani, Tancred Schiavoni, Sherman Power
Flood Insurance in the Private Sector
As of 7/1/2019 banking regulations were updated to allow lenders’ acceptance of a private flood insurance policy to satisfy the mandatory purchase of flood insurance. The privatization of flood insurance may provide a real growth opportunity for the right company. In fact, insurers have already been increasing their presence in the flood insurance industry. There are several considerations for those assessing the opportunity to underwrite flood insurance. One of the main resources to price the coverage will be the utilization of a flood model. In addition to an overview of the current landscape of the privatization of flood insurance, this session will delve into the best practices of evaluating a flood model.
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Joe Milicia
Panelists:
Greg Frankowiak, Megan Hart
How to Allocate Capital if You Really Must
This session follows on from those sessions we, along with Jesse Nickerson and Don Mango, presented in 2018 on Spectral Risk Measures (SRM). It presents new work providing a complete solution for allocating capital and for determining the cost of capital by line in a spectral risk measure world. The session will review SRMs and pricing by layer. It will then show how there is a uniquely defined capital allocation assuming only an SRM pricing function, a regulator risk-based capital formula and an assumption of equal priority in default. The new solution has several interesting features, most notably that it produces different target ROEs on allocated capital by line. It can produce negative margins for low risk lines. Overall its allocations appear sensible to the working actuary. The approach solves the problem of so-called excess capital. It gives materially different results than the industry standard, RORAC approach. The theory will be illustrated with several realistic examples a
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
John Major, Stephen Mildenhall
CAS President Armstrong and CEO Carter-Bey speak
Steve Armstrong and Victor Carter-Bey hold a "fireside" chat.
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Joe Milicia
Panelists:
Steven Armstrong, Victor Carter-Bey
Going Along for the Ride
This session will review the history of shared vehicle coverage and how the insurance industry has reacted, including details regarding the policy and coverage. We will discuss current market conditions, address challenges and the future. This will include the quantification of the exposure and how to make better use of the data.
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Blanca Qin, Aran Paik, Max Feldman
Public Entities
There are more than 90,000 public entities in the United States with risks comparable to commercial insurance (e.g. work comp and property) but also other risks that are unique (e.g., police officer liability). Three panelists (1-pool administrator, 2-underwriter, 3-actuary) with different roles regarding reinsurance of public entities will share their perspectives on exposures unique to public entities.
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Peter Wildman, Christopher Krepcho, Heather Burgess
Mortgage CRT During a Pandemic
Mortgage credit risk transfer (“CRT”) is an important component of the U.S. housing finance system.
Under conservatorship of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (“FHFA”), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (together, the Government Sponsored Enterprises or “GSE”s) have come to market with various structures to transfer mortgage credit risk to both investors, via securities offerings (“Capital Markets execution"), and reinsurers, via insurance offerings (“Reinsurance execution”). Reinsurance of the monoline mortgage guaranty insurers has also become an important part of the CRT landscape.
The COVID-19 pandemic is shifting all facets of the economic landscape including CRT. This panel will explore the implications of the evolving pandemic on mortgage CRT by addressing the following questions:
• Economic conditions have changed drastically during the unfolding pandemic. What will mortgage performance look like in light of these shifting economic conditions and why should this differ from perf
Source:
2020 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Michael Schmitz, Jonathan Berenbom, Seamus Fearon
Risk Agility: Linking Enterprise Risk Management to Strategy
Because we usually operate in a competitive environment, even the simplest of plans can be wrecked by unexpected reactions of our competitors. Risk Agility is needed to provide a clear path to linking risk management with a successful approach to strategy.
This session will introduce the three main components of Risk Agility:
• risk intelligence
• bias towards action
• flexibility.
Risk Intelligence is the intersection of experience, education, and analysis. This session will include a lively discussion of the relative importance of those three elements to an ERM program. We will concentrate on examples of Risk Intelligence in action, showing how it reduces the impact of the biases described in behavioral economics. Topics covered will include discussion of how risk intelligence helps a risk manager with:
• Identifying the difference between danger and fear
• How the 80/20 Rule applies to risk management
• Learning from losses: yours and others
• Shape of the loss distribution
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Joe Milicia
Panelists:
David Ingram, Leo Tilman
ERM and Climate Change Risk
This session will include a discussion of how US insurance companies are looking at global warming and discuss the implementability of items discussed in the IFoA’s Practical Guide to Climate Change for General Insurance Practitioners. The speakers will represent views from a personal lines insurer and a commercial lines insurer. Our third speaker will talk about how actuaries can add value to the climate risk process.
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Barry Franklin, Rade Musulin, Parr Schoolman
A Visual Walk Through Reserving
This presentation will introduce fundamental principles of effective visualization and provide examples of visuals to enhance a reserving analysis. We will explore the benefits and pitfalls of various visuals as well as explain the importance of storytelling. The goal will be to challenge actuaries to think about their analyses with visuals in mind while providing tangible examples to help them begin down the path of visualizing their work products.
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kathryn Walker
Panelists:
Paul Majchrowski, Keith Quigley
An Insurers Perspective on Carbon Intense Fuels
At this session the speaker will address the impact of decisions made by insurers moving to restrict the insurance cover they offer to companies that build or operate coal power plants or other plants powered by carbon-intense fuels.
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Ben Harper
Professionalism and the Enterprise Risk Management Practitioner
Actuaries working in Enterprise Risk Management have a variety of standards to help guide them. This interactive session will explore all of the tools with a special focus on ASOP 46,47, 55 and new ASOP 56. The session will include background, case studies, and trivia to test and apply your knowledge of these important ASOP's.
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Joe Milicia
Panelists:
Robert Wolf, Michael Speedling, Kendall Williams
Enterprise Risk Management – Steering Your Board : A Case Study
This session will be represented as a case study and role playing where the Enterprise Risk Professionals will be communicating his/her quarterly ERM report to the Board. What style of presentation is recommended to gain optimum buy-in, understanding, and support from you Board?
Risk Appetite statements are often vague and qualitative, making it challenging to make the connection to day-to-day decision making. In this session, we discuss leading practices for defining risk appetite clearly and quantitatively, providing a direct and actionable line-of-sight to decision making.
Join us in an interactive session where panelists will be involved in role-playing in the interest of generating interactive discussions with the audience.
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michelle Iarkowski
Panelists:
Robert Wolf, David Ingram
Managing Legacy Risks in 2020
The legacy markets are very active as we move into this new decade, with latent risks that continue to give rise to claim activity (e.g., asbestos, talc, sexual misconduct, hazing, opioid usage, PTSD, CTE, etc.). This session will provide important background on this growing market, including the major players and the types of solutions available to companies to manage their legacy risk. This will include an update on the unique benefits of the Insurance Business Transfer (IBT) legislation in Oklahoma, which has received significant interest and is viewed as the first-mover in this space. How will this success aid in future IBT transfers? What’s the progress of similar legislation in other states?
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Joe Milicia
Panelists:
Sandra Santomenno, Marc-Andre Lefebvre, Travis Grulkowski, Carolyn Fahey
Telematics - What Works and What Does Not?
In this session we will start with early usages of telematics to test advanced driver assistant system (ADAS) and driver behavior studies funded by National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). We will cover how telematics data were collected, data domains and challenges to process the data etc. With rapid development of new technologies and autonomous vehicles, telematics data are becoming more and more popular to provide insights on fleet management and driving safety. It is an unavoidable trend for insurance industry to turn the flood of raw data cascading from the fleet’s vehicles into meaningful and profitable actions.
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
HongTao Wang
Panelists:
Wei (Alex) Chen, Huimin Xiong
Actuarial Trivia Challenge
During this session by the Committee on Professionalism Education, participants will use their cell phones to participate in a real-time Trivia game! This session will qualify for Continuing Education in the area of Professionalism, as many questions will relate to Actuarial Standards of Practice, the US Qualification Standards, and/or the Code of Conduct.
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Joe Milicia
Panelists:
Peter Royek, Kendall Williams, Elizabeth Bart
CAS Admissions Update
Get updates on some of the recent changes in admissions including the delay of Spring Exams, how the CAS plans to administer fall exams, and other future changes in the works. The CAS Vice President of Admissions and the CAS Admissions Staff Actuary will answer your questions on the current syllabus and the future of the CAS syllabus.
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Joe Milicia
Panelists:
Wesley Griffiths, Jeanne Crowell
Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Queer Identities & Allyship in Actuarial Workplaces
Being an LGBTQ+ professional isn’t always easy. In this gathering of LGBTQ+ folks and Allies, let’s unpack that. As an industry, we’ve made huge strides (especially in the past few years), but there is still much more progress to be made. In this session, we will discuss challenges and triumphs of the LGBTQ+ community in actuarial workplaces. You will hear from actuaries actively involved in Diversity & Inclusion initiatives in the insurance industry and beyond. Come ready to participate!
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Joe Milicia
Panelists:
Jake Akstins, Matthew Gentile
The Unintended Consequences of Data
Dr. Charles Wheelan, author of Naked Statistics, will be the Featured Speaker at the 2020 Spring Meeting. He will address the unintended consequences of data being used in inappropriate ways. Dr. Wheelan said when informed of his selection as Featured Speaker, “”I look forward to speaking at the CAS Spring Meeting on the topic of the unintended consequences of data because data is the new dynamite: fabulously powerful but also capable of inflicting enormous damage if used improperly.”
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
Featured Speaker
Moderators:
Joe Milicia
Panelists:
Charles Wheelan
Insuring Low-Income People against Catastrophes in Developing Countries
Low-income people are the most vulnerable to the effects of natural catastrophic events. With global climate change upon us, this problem will only be exacerbated. This session will provide some cutting-edge knowledge on efforts that are being implemented right now to help low-income people manage these risks more effectively. Among the topics the speakers will discuss are:
- Direct and indirect insurance for the benefit of low-income populations
- The role of subsidies
- “Forecast-financing” products that pay before the impact occurs
- Examples from Peru, Mongolia, the Philippines, Republic of Georgia, Ethiopia and others
- Insurance as a component of risk management
This will be followed by discussion of actual insurance products that have been implemented among low-income markets.
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Joe Milicia
Panelists:
Michael McCord, Jerome Skees, Minnie Green
Climate Change and Catastrophic Trends
Many scientists assert that global climate change is occurring, but questions remain as to whether there is evidence in P&C insurance loss trends. Estimating the impact of climate change on P&C losses exclusive of inflation and exposure changes remains to be a difficult task.
The first speaker will open with an insightful discussion on some of the most recent global catastrophes and how such events compare to what is often considered the historical norm.
The second speaker will introduce the newly released Actuarial Climate Risk Index which is being developed to help actuaries to answer the question: Are the extreme weather conditions that result from a changing climate producing increased property losses?
The third speaker will go over the IFoA’s Guide to Climate Change for General Insurance Practitioners and suggest what actuaries should start focusing on today.
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Keith Palmer
Panelists:
James Orr, Richard Gibson, Daniel Hartung
Insurtech: Disruption in the Industry
Change is coming to insurance. The tradition-bound P&C Industry is on the cusp of the most radical change since the invention of the automobile. Are insurers prepared for the size, scale, and speed of what’s to come from the wave of millennials, new technology and venture capital funding? This session will likely explore:
• Evolving distribution systems through Insurtech;
• New Insurtech companies and emerging risks (e.g. drone insurance);
• Real time pricing and on-demand insurance;
• Big Data, Predictive modeling, Artificial Intelligence; and
• Mitigating bureaucracies and regulation.
Source:
2020 Spring Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Joe Milicia
Panelists:
Robert Galbraith, Eric Schmidt, Pankaj Parashar, Lyndsey Toeppen, John-Isaac Clark