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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Evolution in Business Models: On-Demand and Microinsurance
Microinsurance and insurance on demand seek to challenge traditional business models for insurance, leveraging advancements in technology and creative thinking to deliver new products and differentiated levels of service to customers. In this session we will hear from the CAS Working Party on Microinsurance and an executive at an on-demand startup about how these developments are shaking up the insurance landscape, tie ins to the sharing economy, and potential implications of these innovations on the actuarial community.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Frank Gribbon
Panelists:
Michael Fitzgibbon, Xiaosu Wash
Actionable Insights: How to Make Actuarial Research Come to Life
Actuaries provide critical research for the insurance industry. But often, that research is not easily understood by other insurance professionals. In this session, we’ll explore how to transform your findings into actionable insights that are concise, compelling, and easy to understand. Using best practices and case studies, we’ll show you how to describe and illustrate your technical research to a broader audience.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Scott C. Anderson
Panelists:
David Novich, Brian Ostrowski
Advanced Predictive Modeling
*A laptop is required for this workshop and there will be a maximum of 40 participants.
Although the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) is a natural foundation for much actuarial work, it is best viewed as a starting point, not the last word on the subject. This day-long, hands-on R workshop will discuss a variety of statistical learning methods that either refine or serve as complements to the GLM framework.
Methods for capturing potentially complex non-linear relationships, integrating credibility, tree-based modeling, and machine learning techniques will all be covered in this workshop. Core themes such as the bias-variance tradeoff and cross-validation will be woven throughout the presentation. This workshop will also include a section on feature engineering from unstructured text data that will focus on using natural language processing tools in R to extract predictive signals from noisy text data.
Attendees will develop a better understanding of more advanced modeling techniques including Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), Hierarchical Models, Penalized Regression (Ridge, Lasso, Elastic Net), CART, random forests, boosting and bagging, and natural language processing tools.
The workshop will assume a working knowledge of GLM modeling and R software.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
David Moore
Panelists:
Jason Rodriguez, Jean-Francois Greeff, Kudakwashe Chibanda, Rachael McNaughton, William Frierson
Emerging Issues - Utopia or Dystopia?
Technological evolutions present enormous potential upside and downside for insurers. This session provides a rundown of the internet of things, mobile, robotics, 3D printing, and artificial intelligence, including the basics of each, current use cases in insurance, and risks and opportunities for insurers. It concludes with an overall exploration of risks and potentially unforeseen consequences, as well as analysis of whether we are spiraling towards a utopia or dystopia
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Scott C. Anderson
Panelists:
Robert Weireter, Josh Taub, Brian Ostrowski
Predictive Modeling Loss Assumptions: What's the Impact?
Differences in the maturity of losses and historical cost levels are inherent issues of any analysis involving insurance losses, and predictive modeling analyses are no exception. However, traditional actuarial adjustment methods, which are usually applied at an aggregate level, tend to break down theoretically when applied at the individual claim level in a predictive modeling dataset.
In this session, we’ll discuss several different techniques in which insurance losses can be adjusted to account for time-related differences as well as their merits from a theoretical perspective. Additionally, we will present results of a research project which evaluate these different adjustment methods across a variety of lines of business and the impact that they may have on modeling results as well as the predictive modeling process.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Joshua Merck
Panelists:
Eric Krafcheck, Katie Pipkorn
Using Predictive Analytics to Decompose Workers Compensation Loss Triangle Anomalies
Loss triangles often produce reserve estimates that are unusual for a particular evaluation. For example, where the previous three years might indicate a 1.25 change in reserves at a particular evaluation, the latest indication is a 1.40 change. Often such an anomaly requires checking with underwriters, claim adjusters, case managers, and other operations specialists to understand the unusual adverse loss experience. By contrast, advances in predictive analytics are allowing for much more granular decompositions of claim experience that permit isolating changes in claim frequency and severity for narrow subgroups of claims or claim characteristics. For example, a Segmentation Analysis might identify an unusually large number of claims for a high-cost segment, an unusually large increase in severity for a moderately-severe segment, or some combination of both. Segmentation analysis can tease-out changing associations between specific claim characteristics (increasing or decreasing opioid utilization, cumulative trauma and attorney involvement) and their associated outcomes.
The panelists will describe a general framework for the predictive analytics and provide a detailed example of a segmentation analysis, which uses claim characteristics to segment (or to some, cluster) claims into mutually exclusive subgroups, and then they will analyze frequency and severity changes for these subgroups across different evaluations in the loss triangle. The panelists will also describe information the actuary should consult to determine whether the changes to the subgroups is systemic to the book of business or due to external changes. The external changes may include public policy changes, change in adjudication practices or changes in market claims trends.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Derek Freihaut
Panelists:
Philip Borba, Alex Swedlow
Getting Impact from Predictive Analytics: You have a model. Now what?
Getting impact from Predictive Modeling and analytics means effective communication, strategic thinking, and follow through. This session will discuss the predictive modeler’s core messages from the perspective of senior management, as well as strategies to communicate model results effectively with senior management. We’ll also discuss how to think strategically about execution and how to cross the final mile to impact.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Derek Freihaut
Panelists:
Jessica Leong, David Wang
Ensembles and Combining Models
Ensembles are powerful analytical methods used commonly in the wider Predictive Analytics community outside of Insurance. We’ll describe the rationale and explain the effectiveness of Ensembles in general, as well as the basic approaches of bagging and boosting Ensembles of Trees. Advantages of Ensembles on insurance data will be shown and the issues surrounding complex models discussed. Finally, strategies for combining linear regression and ensemble models will be explored through a case study.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Julie Lederer
Panelists:
Christopher Cooksey
Basic Ratemaking
Part 1: Fundamental Insurance Equations
This session will go over the process for developing a rate indication. Participants will gain familiarity with the steps and adjustments needed. Considerations such as loss development, trend, credibility, etc will be discussed.
Part 2: Ratemaking Relativities
This session will examine the reasons and some methods that actuaries use to allocate overall average rates to various subdivisions of a line of business. Some of the methods discussed will consist of univariate, multivariate, and generalized linear modeling techniques.
Part 3: Estimating Claim Liabilities
The session will focus on estimating claim liabilities including development factor techniques, advantages and disadvantages of different methods, and diagnostics of the various methods
Part 4: Large Account Pricing
This session will examine the differences between large accounts and small accounts, and how they can and should be treated differently from an insurance pricing perspective. Participants will be introduced to pricing methods that both utilize the increased credibility of large account experience and recognize the uniqueness of each risk. Specifically, this session will serve as an introduction to experience rating, schedule rating, and retrospective rating.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Workshop
Panelists:
Christopher Cooksey, Alejandro Ortega, Josh Taub, Patrick Stapleton
Neural Networks – Could We Actually File One?
Rather than dismissing Neural Networks as a technique to be used in rate filings, this session will throw caution to the wind. If we start with the assumption that they could work, acknowledge the difficulties inherent as legitimate problems, but then work to solve those problems…how far could we get?
This session will present enough theory for an unfamiliar audience to understand the workings and potential advantages of Neural Networks. The issue of model transparency will be discussed, particularly in contrast with GLMs, and options for explaining/presenting Neural Networks will be presented. In addition, a regulator will ruminate on what is actually required in a filed model. Do we make assumptions on this that may not be true?
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Julie Lederer
Panelists:
Christopher Cooksey, Thomas Hess
Predictive Modeling- A Regulator's Perspective
This session has three parts. First, we will give attendees insight into the Regulator’s perspective regarding the increasing use of GLM models and other Predictive Analytic tools. It includes a brief review of relevant GLM theory and a list of common regulatory concerns and complaints. These shared concerns and complaints include sloppy filings, incomplete filings, and filings where it appears the filers assumes the requested information won't be read. We talk about how regulators are talking and working together to address their shared challenges and concerns.
The second part focuses on the concerns in one state, Nevada. Finally we provide time for questions and answers.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Gennady Stolyarov, Thomas Hess, Daniel Davis
ASOP on Estimating Future Costs for Prospective Property/Casualty Risk Transfer and Risk Funding
"As part of the traditional ratemaking and other projections of the cost of future fortuitous events, many actuaries are involved in the development of the estimates of the underlying future costs of many risk transfer or risk retention programs – insurance, re-insurance, excess insurance, captives, self-insurance, etc. These estimates serve as the preliminary basis for the development of the filed rates, negotiated contracts or charges to operating costs.
This panel will provide a summary of the recently approved ASOP covering the area of estimating future costs prospectively whether they are transferred or retained.
"
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Julie Lederer
Panelists:
Patrick Woods, Christopher Carlson
Predictive Modeling with Generalized Linear Models
*A Laptop is required for this workshop and a maximum of 40 participants will be allowed.
This popular, hands-on, interactive predictive modeling workshop has been offered at the RPM seminar now for several years. It will be conducted exclusively in the R statistical computing language, which is widely adopted by statisticians and data scientists.
The course will provide a refresher of regression theory before proceeding to a variety of practical modeling applications and case studies. The focus will be on generalized linear models (GLMs) — their specification, interpretation, and validation. A variety of distributions will be covered, including classical, Poisson, logistic, gamma, and Tweedie. Other topics will be discussed and illustrated as time permits. All datasets will be distributed to attendees prior to the seminar.
Important note: familiarity with R is assumed. An "introduction to R" presentation will be distributed before the seminar which will contain a primer on basic features and statistical functions, as well as installation instructions, that will enable beginners to get up to speed. While R beginners are encouraged to attend, they should make some attempt to become comfortable with the language prior to the workshop. This workshop has been designed for beginning predictive modelers, but more experienced modelers seeking a refresher or a deeper working knowledge of R have attended past workshops and expressed satisfaction with the coverage of topics.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Workshop
Panelists:
Mark Goldburd, Manyi Luo
Product Development Workshop
This workshop will explore the different stages of the product lifecycle – from ideation through design, development, and launch – with hands-on exercises for the attendee. Industry leaders will serve as facilitators to review the various stages of the product development lifecycle and to help guide the attendees through the realities of developing an insurance product. Attendees will work in teams to develop fictitious products that will be integrated into the product development lifecycle stage discussions.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
Joshua Merck
Panelists:
Robin Harbage, Donald Hendriks, Kelly Cusick, Thomas Hess
Data Driven Opportunities in the Smart Home and Implications for Insurers
The continual harvest of data from everyday devices, combined with shifts in consumer preferences, is pushing synergies for those in the smart-home market and the insurance industry. Gain an understanding of the definition of a smart home and learn how these two industries can leverage successful collaborations.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Sandra Maples
Introduction to R
*A Laptop is required for this workshop and a maximum of 40 participants will be allowed.
Are you one of the millions of actuaries around the world who wish they could draw maps showing the progress of hurricanes, fit generalized linear models to predict sporting events, create complex Monte Carlo simulations, or fit loss distributions? Or maybe you’re the sort of person who wants to fit a stochastic reserving model and have a computer display stacks of pretty pictures for you. Do you want one point of access for all of your Excel, text, database and web-based data? Are you fascinated by programmers whose first names begin with the letter “R”?
If that’s the sort of person you are, this is the workshop for you. And if none of those people is you, maybe all you want is to be able to get R to work for your computer. We can take care of that too.
R is the single most important technological advance for actuaries since the invention of the pocket calculator. Come see what all the fuss is about.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
Julie Lederer
Panelists:
Gary Wang, Scott Sobel, Brian Fannin, Radost Wenman
Loss Sensitive Large Accounts Pricing: Approaches and Challenges
This session will delve into the challenges and decision points associated with loss sensitive large account pricing. Topics will include potential information available to support this process along with the decision points associated with available parameters and methodologies, including an update regarding NCCI’s new Aggregate Loss Factors (formerly known as Table M) and Aggregate Loss Factors On Demand application for retrospectively rated policies. This is intended as an open discussion of ideas, so please prepare for an interactive session.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Blake Berman
Panelists:
Russell Buckley, Kirk Bitu
Commercial Auto: Reading the Terrain
This session will address the continuing Commercial Auto issues. We will break the overall results into the latest frequency and severity trends, rate changes, pressures on increased limits factors, lengthening development factors, and resulting profitability issues being experienced by much of the industry in this line of business. We will discuss the importance of accurate underwriting and predictive analytics. The role premium leakage plays today will be discussed, as well as how new developments like ISO’s Optional Class Plan will affect the market in years to come.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jean-Philippe Boucher
Panelists:
Kevin Hughes, Kirsten Hernan
Aims and Advances in Personal Lines Risk Classification
Insurance risk classification continues to become more sophisticated and refined, fueled by enhancements in data, analytical techniques and computing power. This session will open with a brief discussion of the aims of risk classification, including how this topic is addressed in actuarial standards of practice and insurance rate regulation and some recent anecdotes of where it’s been covered in the press. We will focus on personal lines insurance and discuss real examples of novel risk classification used in pricing and what issues the classifications aim to address, what data and techniques are used to develop these classifications, and what implementation challenges they may present. We will then examine how telematics, as well as advances in autonomous safety features, has and will continue to change risk classification.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
David Moore
Panelists:
Claudine Modlin, Katie DeGraaf
Workers Compensation - State of the Market
An overview of the current state of the Workers Compensation line will be presented, including a review of financial results, recent trends, and a discussion of where the line might be headed.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Julie Lederer
Panelists:
Jay Rosen, Brent Otto
The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Risks
What is the impact of autonomous vehicles on insurance risks? This session will discuss effects of AV on crash frequency and severity, how it will change how the risks are transferred (e.g. will OEMs become insurance carriers in the future), and the macro-impact for the whole auto insurance industry.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Frederic Bruneteau
The Future of Auto Insurance
How will the future of auto insurance look like? This session will demystify the OEM threat to the insurance sector, discuss how insurance carriers can stay relevant, and debate on the future insurance rating in the age of connected cars.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Matteo Carbone
Severe Weather
This popular workshop gives the attendees an opportunity to learn more about how Natural Catastrophe Models are developed and used within Property and Casualty Insurance. The workshop starts with a series of sessions that will explore the science underlying three Catastrophe Models (Hurricane, Flood, and Wild Fire), with an opportunity for a Q&A session with representatives from Cat modeling firms. The afternoon will include sessions that explore how weather information is being used in the insurance industry, focusing in on current topics of interest. Please bring your laptop for a more interactive experience.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
Jean-Philippe Boucher
Panelists:
David Smith, Garrett Bradford, Jeff Waters, Edward Byrns, David Evans, Rehan Siddique, Tammy Viggato
Professionalism Trivia
Join the Committee on Professionalism Education as they roll out the next generation of Trivia games! This session will present Actuarial professionalism topics in a new, fun way! Be sure to bring your phone or mobile device to play along!
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Derek Freihaut
Panelists:
Peter Royek, Elizabeth Bart
Lights! Camera! Professionalism!
Join us as we "act" out various real-world examples that might just require a review of the Actuarial Standards of Practice! This session will be eligible for Professionalism Continuing Education Credits, and is hosted by the Committee on Professionalism Education.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Derek Freihaut
Panelists:
Peter Royek, Kelly McKeethan, Michael Chen
