Search Presentations
STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Refine Your Search
The presentation materials are offered in connection with CAS professional education offerings. © 2022 Casualty Actuarial Society. All Rights Reserved. The presentation materials may contain copyrighted content the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. You are permitted to view and print the materials for personal/professional noncommercial research purposes. Except for the foregoing, you agree not to reproduce, distribute, modify, create derivative works, or commercially exploit the presentation materials without prior written permission from CAS. Please direct any copyright permission inquiries regarding use of the presentation materials to acs@casact.org.
STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Predictive Analytics in Strategy and Decisions - A Tour Around the Globe
Predictive analytics can shape key aspects of insurers’ business strategies and thus is gaining popularity world-wide. Regional diversity in practice, market conditions and regulation is influencing the way analytics is being implemented around the globe. The availability of data, analytical sophistication and the maturity level of customer-centric views can also influence many business problems. These problems can be addressed by predictive analytics, and the efficiency and precision of actuarial decisions. We can learn from the global differences as well as from the commonalities.
This session will discuss various analytical challenges around pricing, underwriting, retention management, customer life time value, etc. and provide real life examples acquired through numerous projects in over 20 countries around the globe.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Julie Lederer
Panelists:
Reuven Shnaps, Ph.D
GLM - III
This session will consider new techniques and refinements to the basic GLM which can add material value to the modeling process. It will specifically consider amendments which address some of the purported failings of GLMs in comparison to emerging methods such as machine learning techniques.
The session will include a discussion of:
• An innovative approach to detecting subtle and higher dimensional interactions in an efficient way, potentially eliminating
the need to consider alternative, harder-to-implement model forms such as nonlinear models.
• The role of such automated methods in comparison with a more manual construction of composite explanatory variables.
• Ways to mitigate the risk of over-parameterization through the use of modifications which incorporate elements of credibility within the GLM framework.
• Simple practical modeling steps that can be used to remove distortions created by combining models across claim types.
• Innovative ways of modeling bodily injury claims and other miscellaneous refinements.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Julie Lederer
Panelists:
Brent Petzoldt
Data Visualizations of Auto Crashes
We will show how companies can take external data and combine it with their own internal information (such as loss costs) to create dynamic data visualizations that will help stakeholders make important decisions about pressing current issues such as distracted driving, marijuana usage (in states where it is legal) and crash rates, and partially automated cars (and what to charge for cars with these enhanced safety features). The focus will be on showing participants how they can apply this type of cutting-edge data visualization at their own company. We will also feature how companies can use interactive data visualization directly in presentations as opposed to static PowerPoints.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Joshua Merck
Panelists:
Klayton Southwood, Madeline Main
GLM - II
GLM I provided the case for using GLMs and some basic GLM theory. GLM II will be a practical session outlining basic modeling strategy. The discussion will cover topics such as overall modeling strategy, selecting an appropriate error structure and link function, simplifying the GLM (i.e., excluding variables, grouping levels, and fitting curves), complicating the GLM (i.e., adding interactions), and validating the final model. The session will also include a discussion on diagnostics that help test the selections made.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Julie Lederer
Panelists:
Ernesto Schirmacher, Pong Woo
And the Winner Is: How to Pick a Better Model
You have just finished running some data through a predictive modeling package. Now all you need to do is summarize the results, send them along, and you’re done, right? Wrong. At the absolute minimum, you should understand and demonstrate the goodness of fit of the model. In most cases, you should also prove the constructed model provides lift over the existing rating structure. After all, what good is a new model if it cannot outperform the competition? In this session, we will explore in significant detail three often overlooked components of the modeling process: measuring goodness-of-fit, assessing lift, and internally validating a predictive model. Key topics include confusion matrices, ROC curves, Gini indices, lift charts, double-lift charts, residual plots, likelihood, penalized likelihood and deviance. Model development is usually a major investment. We should make sure our models are performing well to get the best bang for the buck.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Blake Berman
Panelists:
Hoi Leung, Hernan Medina
Sparsity Blues: How to Improve Your Predictive Model with Categorical Data
Linear models don't always handle categorical data well. And yet, categorical predictors are common in classification rating plans. Credibility has long been a tool which can smooth predictions across segments. This presentation will illustrate decision trees and naive Bayes as alternatives to a strict credibility-focused modeling approach.
Source:
2018 Ratemaking, Product and Modeling (RPM) Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Joshua Merck
Panelists:
Brian Fannin
Overview and Practical Application of Machine Learning Methods in Pricing
The term "machine learning" covers a range of methods that can be powerful, with very practical benefits, in pricing and other insurance applications. Such methods can aid in further improving statistical modeling (e.g., GLM) results or more broadly bring valuable insights to complex problems. There can also be a number of practical challenges in using these methods effectively. In this session, we will review a range of commonly used methods and illustrate different ways they are being applied in insurance. The session will focus on the high-level mechanics of each method and the benefits/challenges of their application - as opposed to the underlying technical details.
Source:
2017 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Claudine Modlin, Mark Richards, Duncan Anderson
Data and Cybersecurity: Legal and Regulatory Developments
This session will consider the issues associated with recent developments in regulation of cybersecurity matters and the cyber insurance marketplace, as well as new cyber-related issues looming on the horizon. The proposed cybersecurity model law of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners ("NAIC") will be discussed, including a deep-dive into how its provisions would impact the insurance industry, and some of the criticisms of the NAIC's approach. Other activity at the state level will also be discussed, including some of the most recent guidance developed by insurance departments. Tips for working with regulators to avoid compliance pitfalls will also be shared. Lastly, the possibility of federal regulation will be considered, with an analysis of the pros and cons of such a scenario.
Source:
2017 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Fred Karlinsky, Robert Parisi, Lori Nugent
Actuarial Perspectives in the Era of Social Consciousness
Over the last few years, gun liability bills have been introduced in a number of states. The insurance industry has not been engaged in the discussion in more than a superficial level. This session will offer attendees the opportunity to look critically at the issues involved in gun liability insurance - the public policy goals, the economics involved, and how an insurance framework could or could not achieve its desired goals.
The second part of the discussion will focus on the rise of 3rd party data and its implications for the industry. Competitive pressures compel insurance companies to introduce new pricing factors, though in some cases this may be detrimental to the industry as a whole, and particularly to consumers. The issue will be analyzed in the context of game theory and the Nash equilibrium, and a method to measure the overall economic value of pricing factors will be discussed.
Source:
2017 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Stephanie Rabin, Peter Kochenburger, Joshua Wykle
The Predictive Modeling Context With Minimum Bias, GLMs, and Credibility
Traditional statistical model building involves testing the model assumptions to validate the appropriate model is being applied to the data. For this process detailed model specifications are needed and hypotheses are tested. Instead, the presenters propose predictive performance testing where only the predictive framework is needed. A model is valid as long as it performs well at predicting outcomes for data not used to fit its parameters.
An empirical case study will be presented comparing the relative predictive performance of a multiplicative minimum bias model and a generalized linear model (GLM) without specifically testing the validity of any of the model assumptions, such as likelihoods, independence assumptions, etc. Comparison of models is also made when credibility is incorporated
Source:
2017 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Christopher Gross, Jonathan Evans, Curtis Dean
How Sustainability Practices Impact P&C Insurance
This session gives an overview of a general sustainability framework, its pillars and principles. In line with United Nations Principles for Sustainable Insurance, it introduces its potential implications on P&C insurance operations, such as investments, underwriting, product design, claim adjudication, and reporting. This session also intends to explore sustainability considerations to take into account while completing actuarial work in reserving, pricing or risk management.
Source:
2017 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Houston Cheng, Anh Le, Arnaud Van Dijk, Barbara Turley-McIntyre
GLM: A Deep Dive of Frequency-Severity vs. Pure Premium Approach
When Tweedie distribution is getting more popular for the GLM based predictive modeling practice, the comparison on frequency-severity separated modeling approach vs. pure premium modeling approach is always a hot topic in many P&C pricing and underwriting predictive modeling projects.
It is not only a technical question on estimation accuracy, it data availability, product management and various implementation considerations.
In this session, we will discuss pros and cons of the two modeling approaches under different modeling scenarios, for instance, long-tail vs. short tail, high volume vs. low volume etc. We will specifically describe major challenges of using each of the two approaches and show case studies for each approach. We will also provide a guideline from the class plan development and implementation perspective about how to make a judgement.
Source:
2017 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Jun Yan, Jun Zhou, Tu Ta
Effectively Evaluating External Data
Data is at the core of the ratemaking process. By effectively leveraging new and innovative data sources, companies can out segment the competition and gain competitive advantage. However, anyone who has been through a data evaluation process knows that it is typically as simple as reading the label on the package, tossing it into the cart, and heading to checkout. It is not uncommon for data evaluations to take months and ultimately yield results that are difficult to interpret.
In this session we will share some tips and tricks to make sure you have an efficient and effective data evaluation. There will be a focus on different statistical methods to quantify the business value of adding new data assets. This session will also use live polling so companies can better understand how they compare to their peers on topics like:
* How many new data sources do you typically evaluate in a year?
* How long does the typical evaluation last?
* What business lines benefit the most from the inclusion of external data?
Source:
2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Drew Lawyer, Jim Weiss, Adi Bar-Lev
LL3: Emerging Risks Learning Lounge (60 minutes)
Hinging on the idea that social interaction that makes learning stick, the planning committee is arranging five facilitated meet-in-greet hours for actuaries and underwriters within specific insurance fields. These facilitated hour long events will take place throughout the seminar and will provide a platform for insurance professionals to discuss issues, learn and network.
This learning lounge is for professionals within the practice area of emerging risks.
Source:
2017 Underwriting Collaboration Seminar
Type:
Roundtable
Panelists:
Lamont Boyd
LL4: Predictive Analytics Learning Lounge (60 minutes)
Hinging on the idea that social interaction that makes learning stick, the planning committee is arranging five facilitated meet-in-greet hours for actuaries and underwriters within specific insurance fields. These facilitated hour long events will take place throughout the seminar and will provide a platform for insurance professionals to discuss issues, learn and network.
This learning lounge is for professionals within the practice area of predictive analytics.
Source:
2017 Underwriting Collaboration Seminar
Type:
Roundtable
Panelists:
Michael Solomon
LL5: Interaction between Underwriter and Actuary Learning Lounge (60 minutes)
Hinging on the idea that social interaction that makes learning stick, the planning committee is arranging five facilitated meet-in-greet hours for actuaries and underwriters within specific insurance fields. These facilitated hour long events will take place throughout the seminar and will provide a platform for insurance professionals to discuss issues, learn and network.
This learning lounge is for professionals interested in communication opportunities and challenges.
Source:
2017 Underwriting Collaboration Seminar
Type:
Roundtable
Panelists:
Scott Sobel, Steve Sumner
LL2: Personal Lines Learning Lounge (60 minutes)
Hinging on the idea that social interaction that makes learning stick, the planning committee is arranging five facilitated meet-in-greet hours for actuaries and underwriters within specific insurance fields. These facilitated hour long events will take place throughout the seminar and will provide a platform for insurance professionals to discuss issues, learn and network.
This learning lounge is for professionals within the practice area of personal lines.
Source:
2017 Underwriting Collaboration Seminar
Type:
Roundtable
Panelists:
Rob Galbraith
LL1: Underwriting Catastrophe Risk Learning Lounge (60 minutes)
Hinging on the idea that social interaction that makes learning stick, the planning committee is arranging five facilitated meet-in-greet hours for actuaries and underwriters within specific insurance fields. These facilitated hour long events will take place throughout the seminar and will provide a platform for insurance professionals to discuss issues, learn and network.
This Learning Lounge is for professionals with practice areas in Underwriting Catastrophe Risk
Source:
2017 Underwriting Collaboration Seminar
Type:
Roundtable
Panelists:
George Davis
CS16: Demographics Data in the Insurance Industry – Know WHO and WHERE your Customers are
Insurance companies may think they know their customers, but do they really? In this session the audience will learn how demographic data, coupled with GIS tools, allows for deeper understanding of the potential policyholders. The session will use examples to show how demographics can influence decisions about marketing, growth and portfolio management.
Source:
2017 Underwriting Collaboration Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Andrew Siffert
CS8: Weather Trends and Impact to Insurance Industry
There is no escaping the wild weather that shows up across various media in our technology driven society. From recent events like hurricane Matthew and deadly tornadoes in the Midwest to extreme droughts, fires and floods, it may appear we are having more extreme weather events and many in the insurance industry question if this is the "new normal". This talk will dive into the weather data to discuss the trends and its impacts on insurance industry across the U.S.
Source:
2017 Underwriting Collaboration Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Andrew Siffert
CS12: NICB Digital Intelligence Collection - An Innovative Approach to CAT Response
The National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB) is conducting extensive testing in the area of Digital Catastrophic Event response. The presentation will provide the audience with the an overview of our capabilities focused on imagery collection, data collection and social media collection prior to, during and post CAT. We will discuss the current state of testing, present preliminary results and discuss our future intentions. We will also discuss NICB efforts, in partnership with Northwestern University, to utilize new technologies and predictive algorithms to build a Disaster Resiliency Index.
Source:
2017 Underwriting Collaboration Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Rob Galbraith, James Schweitzer, Ryan Bank
Enhancing Pricing Precision for Today’s Market - The Path to Customer Centricity
In response to new market realities, a growing number of North American insurance companies have recognized the need to establish tighter and more engaging relationships with their customers, and are looking into doing so with improved use of analytics.
In the modern age of insurance, financial institutions collect large amounts of customer data. Utilizing a variety of different channels, insurance companies have more information than ever before. However, to improve customer experience, this information needs to be used intelligently. The implementation of customer centric processes and technology does not happen overnight. In the North American insurance industry, a successful implementation necessitates a robust process and technological solution that can cope with a number of specific challenges. These include effective ways of dealing with “Big Data”, lack of in-house analytical sophistication, limited time-to-market capabilities, and ability to measure the impact of pricing decisions. This session will review these common hurdles and propose effective solutions to address them.
This session will review common hurdles to adopting this advanced analytics techniques and propose effective solutions to address some of the challenges along the path to Customer Centricity.
Source:
2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Martin Ellingsworth, Reuven Shnaps, Adi Bar-Lev
CS4: Unleashing the Power of Predictive Analytics: The Underwriter and the Data Scientist
Predictive modeling projects can be quite a bit different from traditional actuarial pricing work from a project management perspective, and not just from a mathematical perspective. Two experienced presenters will discuss the activities that make for a successful collaborations between underwriting and predictive modeling. What should each team look to the other for? What questions should they ask? What are key pieces of information they can provide each other to facilitate the best decision-making? What are the blind spots each party is likely to have that the other can help with?
Source:
2017 Underwriting Collaboration Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Christopher Monsour, Lamont Boyd, Susan Kearney
CS20: Workers Compensation Experience Rating
Experience Rating (ER) has been in use for over a century, since the earliest days of Workers Compensation, and is heavily relied upon by both underwriters and actuaries. While the general principles remain the same, the specific features and formulas used in ER have changed over time and can vary from one state to another.
This session will initially provide a brief overview and history of the NCCI ER Plan with a focus on recent changes. Performance results will also be discussed. Next, the ER changes implemented this year by the WCIRB of California will be presented.
Source:
2017 Underwriting Collaboration Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
David Bellusci, Anthony DiDonato
California Insurance Market - Current Events
This closing general session will feature a panel of experts who will address various topics surrounding the current state of the insurance market in the state of California. Our panel will cover issues with Workers Compensation and various Property related natural hazard issues, and will feature a lively Q&A session.
Source:
2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
General Session
Panelists:
Shawna Ackerman, Alex Swedlow, Howard Kunst, Howard Botts
