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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Predictive Modeling for Actuaries Book Project
PREDICTIVE MODELING FOR ACTUARIES BOOK PROJECT
The editors embarked on a two-volume book project that incorporates a discussion of techniques in 20 Volume One chapters and case studies with data sets in 10-15 Volume Two chapters. Volume One was released in July 2014, and Volume Two is expected to be published in the fall of 2015.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Matt Caruso
Panelists:
Louise Francis, Glenn Meyers, James Guszcza, Peng Shi, Brian Hartman
Predictive Modeling Applications for Commercial Specialty Lines Business
In the last several years, people have begun to apply predictive modeling techniques to commercial insurance business. The commercial line applications have been focused on the primary lines of business, including Auto, BOP, WC, and Package. In this session, we will discuss how predictive modeling can be further applied to commercial specialty lines business, such as D&O, EPL, and other specialty commercial insurance products.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Matt Caruso
Panelists:
Matthew Carrier, Kimberly Holmes, Denys Lebedev
Predictive Modeling Advanced: Beyond GLM —  Statistical Learning Methods for Insurance
A Laptop is required for this workshop.
Although the General Sessionized Linear Model (GLM) is a natural foundation for much actuarial work, it is best viewed as a starting point, not the last word on the subject. This day-long, hands-on, R-based workshop will discuss a variety of statistical learning methods that either refine or serve as complements to the GLM framework. General Sessionized Additive Models [GAM] will be discussed as a means to capture potentially complex nonlinear relationships. Multilevel/hierarchical models, ridge regression, and lasso regression will be discussed as a way of achieving shrinkage ("credibility weighting") effects within linear models. Various forms of tree-based modeling (CART, random forests, boosted trees) will be used to exemplify the use of non-parametric, machine learning, and ensemble methods. Time permitting, other machine learning methods such as support vector machines [SVM] and artificial neural networks [ANN] will also be discussed. Core themes such as the bias-variance tradeoff and cross-validation will be woven throughout the presentation. The workshop will assume a working knowledge of the R statistical computing environment and GLM modeling.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Matt Caruso
Panelists:
James Guszcza, Steven Berman
Product Development: Part V — Regulation
Depending on the product, the regulatory concerns can be substantial. During the session, key questions and how their answers affect filing strategy will be discussed. For example, is the company making a new filing or revising a current one? What is the impact on existing customers? Will the change improve the potential for more customers to be written, thus reducing state pools? How were rates substantiated?
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Matt Caruso
Panelists:
Thomas Hess
Product Development: Part IV — Governance
New products are important to an organization's continued growth and marketplace relevance. What processes and governance should companies consider in terms of approving new products? What role (if any) do senior management and the board have in shaping and bringing forth new products? Speed to market is not always a predictor of success in managing product. This session will provide a perspective on how to achieve speed to profit through effective project selection, prioritization, and execution. We will also discuss the factors that contribute to success in launching new products and leading practices based on research and practical experience.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Matt Caruso
Panelists:
Kelly Cusick
Moving HealthCare Risk to the P&C World
Please join Michael Walters and Jerry Frye as they explain healthcare risks and the ways those risks can be insured. Their presentations will be followed by an open discussion of healthcare’s relationship to property/casualty insurance.
Michael Walters is a Fellow and past president of the Casualty Actuarial Society. Mr. Walters has spent four years designing a system to replace the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) system with one that achieves the original goals of the ACA without federal intervention in America’s health care systems. His approach is modeled after auto and homeowners insurance plans that have for decades successfully dealt with availability and affordability problems. The goal is to increase competition in health insurance through the offering of individual policies by casualty insurers. These individual policies will have the same tax advantage as group insurance, but are portable and guaranteed renewable and have the ability to cover pre-existing conditions with needs-based subsidies from Medicaid funds block granted back to the states. Pricing for the greatly expanded number of competing insurers will require large numbers of casualty actuaries that are well versed in predictive modeling techniques.
Jerry Frye is president and owner of BSG Analytics, a subsidiary of the benefits consulting firm he co-founded in 1987. BSG provides data analytics consulting to integrated healthcare systems in the Midwest. Jerry has been instrumental in developing one of the largest commercial Accountable Care Organizations in the nation. His presentation will explain various types of healthcare risk, including geographical risk, clinical risk, pricing risk and administrative risk. He will also discuss the types of data available to price these risks.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Matt Caruso
Panelists:
Michael Walters, Gerald Frye
Moving Beyond History - Behavioral Economics and the Liability Risk Drivers Model as a Means for Casualty Pricing and Risk Quantification
Many commercial lines have not performed as expected over the last two cycles market wide, resulting for several consecutive years in large market losses. Is it possible to expand our approach beyond the traditional ratemaking methods and use lessons learned from behavioral economics and catastrophe modeling approaches to price commercial risks better?
Behavioral economics deals with the psychological and behavioral variables involved in consumers' economic decisions. We will explore how the insights from this field of study may be used to influence commercial pricing decisions.
Also, compared to personal lines, commercial liability risks are more difficult to predict because of their inhomogeneous exposures, long tail nature, and susceptibility to legal, societal, and economic changes as well as future liabilities arising from emerging risks. When rating casualty risks, the history of the risk itself ("experience rating") or an entire market ("exposure rating") is often projected from the past into the future using some more or less explicit assumptions on the risk factors driving casualty exposure.
To overcome this, there was developed a comprehensive model for commercial liability risk, called the Liability Risk Drivers model (LRD). The LRD model calculates expected loss costs starting from a set of loss scenarios, assesses the impact of key risk factors, and evaluates the effect of insurance/reinsurance terms and conditions.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Aaron Hillebrandt
Panelists:
Reuven Shnaps, Eric Huang
Modeling With Unstructured Data
Predictive modelers will always be looking for the next great data source to enhance their analytics. Unstructured data has slowly been introduced through text mining and data mining. With the explosion of BIG data and the emergence of non-numeric and non-text data sources, companies will need to identify ways to handle these novel forms of unstructured data.
In this session, two speakers will explore a variety of "unstructured" data sources. Mr. Wing will discuss best practices on how to use visual imagery to build models and tools, and make informed business decisions. Mr. Mosley will discuss extensions of research that he has done with regard to mining text “tweets” related to P&C insurance, including looking at multiple social media networks for a common theme. He will also discuss how to derive real-time insights and to make business decisions based on social media data.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Aaron Hillebrandt
Panelists:
Roosevelt Mosley, Douglas Wing
Measuring Models and Testing Hypotheses
The session will discuss various ways to validate statistical models and measure model performance. The panelists will take two distinct approaches to the topic.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Dustin Loeffler
Panelists:
Christopher Monsour, Hicham Elhassani, Allen Li
Managing Data for Analytics: Resources Needed, Strategies and Industry Survey Results
Part 1 - Managing Data for Analytics : Resources needed, strategies, and industry survey results.
Managing data needed for predictive analytics projects is especially challenging, because the considerations differ from those that come into play when data is used for other corporate purposes. This presentation will discuss the widespread nature of this problem, including insights that have been gleaned from an industry survey of predictive analytics that was conducted by ISO and Earnix. How much of a typical analytic project's resources are consumed by data issues? Speaker will suggest strategies for making the data management aspect of these projects more efficient.
Part 2 - Managing Data for Analytics : UBI Granularity of data considerations and data management
Analytics and modeling are expanding in UBI, and a lot of new info flows in. Actuaries and other managers have to prepare it, manage it, use it, and transform it into valuable data driven decision making. However, many questions are to be answered before getting the data; for example : definitions of a hard braking event, hard acceleration event, hard curve taking event, use of latitude, longitude, altitude, and so on. Among others, these aspects have to be considered, too: • Quantity of data
• Quality of data
• Data provider
• Transformation into a GLM data file or other format suitable for multivariate analysis
• Interaction with traditional actuarial rating variables
This session explores the actuary’s role in defining the exact data that could be monitored and used in UBI, definitions, and other related aspects.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Germain Denoncourt, Phil Hatfield
Making a Scientific Business Case for Usage-Based Insurance
Actuaries and product managers play a unique role in the success or failure of any usage based insurance (UBI) program. Before launch, they must evaluate different implementation parameters; simulate effects on ROI, retention and other metrics; and help design a resulting program that achieves business objectives. They must also help design and advise on pricing models whose ability to differentiate plays a large role in the effectiveness of the program. In this session, we discuss the business case for UBI, including results achievable under various implementation scenarios and techniques for measuring and improving model lift.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Scott Swanay
Panelists:
Jim Weiss, Curt Davies, Duke Daugherty
Leading Practices in Automating Underwriting for Small Commercial Insurance
In this session, the panelists will discuss how leading insurance companies use automated underwriting, powered by analytics, to accelerate profitable growth in the small commercial insurance marketplace. In fact, industry research indicates that certain small business customers may have an appetite for purchasing commercial insurance direct from carriers. In response to this emerging trend and financial pressures, automated underwriting initiatives that focus on improving no-touch / low-touch flow rates in existing portfolios, may be part of a disruptive marketplace strategy, or fall somewhere in between. In these scenarios, achieving business objectives requires consideration of the impacts to product design, pricing, and organizational capabilities. This session will cover the challenges and benefits of automated underwriting, illustrated through real life examples and practical experience.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Kelly Cusick, David Kuder, Jamal Kader
ISO’s Commercial Lines Program Initiatives – Emerging Issues and Predictive Models
This session will explore several recent and proposed enhancements that the Insurance Services Office (ISO) is making to its commercial lines insurance programs. These enhancements General Sessionly fall into two broad categories: evaluation of emerging risk exposures, or applications of predictive modeling to current rating plans. Topics that may be covered include the following: • Liability endorsements to address drone-related exposures
• Probabilistic modeling of catastrophic cyber risk
• Refinement of commercial automobile classification program
ISO’s actuarial and product professionals will review these topics thoroughly: the underlying research, the rating impacts, and the considerations during product development.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Scott Swanay
Panelists:
Joseph Palmer, Tim McCarthy, Ron Beiderman, Tomas Girnius
Introduction to R: Part II – (Afternoon Session)
Still with us? The afternoon will focus on problems that are specific to actuaries. In addition, we’ll touch on some of the advanced tools that aren’t available in a typical spreadsheet program. • Reserving in R with ChainLadder and MRMR
• Fitting size of loss distributions
• Simulation
• Intermediate data visualization
• Basic machine learning
If participants want to get anything out of the workshop, they should bring their own laptop, with R and RStudio already installed. Installation instructions will be sent via e-mail and available on the internet prior to the workshop.
Not required, but strongly recommended is patience, enthusiasm and a sense of humor. R is difficult, but will give back everything you put into it.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Patrick Gilhool
Panelists:
Brian Fannin
Introduction to R: Part I — (Morning Session)
It’s ridiculous to think that anyone can learn R in a day. What we hope to accomplish is to learn what R is and why actuaries should think about adding it to their toolkit. To do this, we’ll walk through some basic practical exercises and emphasize the power and flexibility of R.
Grab a muffin and some coffee and get ready to learn! • A brief history of R
• "Why isn’t this working?" – Making sure that R is installed and functioning
• "This doesn't look like a spreadsheet!" – Variables, basic calculation, loading and saving data
• Linear models
• Introduction to data visualization
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Patrick Gilhool
Panelists:
Brian Fannin
Integrating UBI into Operations
A successful UBI program requires foundational operational support to be successful. The current UBI buzz focuses on the technology, data and marketing, but what else is needed for a successful program? This session will focus on the operational side of UBI.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Patrick Gilhool
Panelists:
Katie DeGraaf, Torie Hefel, Christopher Dell
Integrated Commercial Lines Predictive Modeling: Merging Qualitative and Quantitative Views
The interplay of models, rules, risk appetite, and field personnel knowledge is critical for a successful deployment of a predictive model to any part of the value chain. This is particularly true for commercial lines underwriting due to the latitude given to underwriters in applying schedule debits and credits and the resulting impact on premium.
In our session we will discuss typical challenges with an emphasis on active field involvement and participation throughout the process. The qualitative side will be illustrated with an industry case study narrative that speaks directly to the advantage of creating alignment of model scores, firing of rules, and quality of account knowledge as defined by the field. The quantitative side will illustrate the challenges of knowledge engineering and how to blend with data-driven decision making. The discussion will highlight choices made to incorporate field input and achieve “last mile” success.
The session is designed to feature a moderated dialog with the participation of an industry leading executive who is wrestling first-hand with the challenges of commercial lines modernization. Audience participation and active question & answer are encouraged.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rebecca Williams
Panelists:
Mark Hoffmann, Keith Toney, Cathy Allocco
Insurance in the Age of Connected and Self-Driving Cars: What Changes and What Stays the Same?
What changes, what stays the same? Join a representative of the United States Department of Transportation for a discussion on the future of automobile insurance in a world with self-driving vehicles.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Insurance 2.0: Insuring the Sharing Economy
The rise of the sharing economy (including firms such as Uber, AirBnB and TaskRabbit) has created new insurance challenges as assets traditionally insured under personal lines policies are being used by micropreneurs to generate income on a part time, and often full time, basis. The peer to peer nature of these unique risks is unprecedented as they have only been recently enabled by advances in mobile technology. The insurance industry has been extremely cautious about entering this space, even as regulators have increased calls for a solution bridging the insurance gaps between personal and commercial coverage. We believe this peer to peer trend will continue, culminating in true peer to peer insurance, or risk transfer between individuals, with regulators constantly playing catch up and insurers either adapting or being displaced. In preparing this paper, we interviewed executives from major players in the sharing economy and the insurance companies dealing with them, as well as regulators, legislators and politicians.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Amit Verma, Dion Oryzak
Information Graphics for Actuaries
This session will cover visualization principles and examples, e.g. what charts to use, how to scale, how to use color, how to use text, etc. This will extend beyond mapping and use real examples to demonstrate how to create data visualization exhibits.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Sheri Scott, Garrett Bradford
What Makes a Good Rate Filing?
"What makes a good rate filing?" is an easy question to answer, if you are only wearing one hat. Hats come in different styles and size, even if it is a company hat or regulator hat. Different players and stakeholders in the rate regulation process have different ideas and definitions of what "good" means when you are talking about a rate filing. In this round table session we will look at the various different definitions and attempt to reconcile some of these different ideas.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Premium Optimization
Recently, there is quite a lot of interest and concerns around the topic of optimization. Actuaries develop a rate which reflects the expected cost of a risk. We then incorporate business decisions to select a price that may deviate from the rate. Optimization is a tool which provides a more rigorous framework in selecting the difference between the rate and the price. In addition there are several optimization approaches that could be used to support this decision. Join us as we discuss the various approaches and demystify their application within a regulated marketplace.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
What is the Next UBI?
UBI has occasionally been billed as the next Insurance Scoring in terms of its disruptive potential and pricing accuracy. With vehicle telematics representing just one connection to the broader Internet of Things, actuaries are rightfully considering what might be the next UBI. This session will discuss how wearables, social media, genetics, and other alternative data sources may help shape future predictions.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Survey Says! Professionalism Edition
We surveyed a number of actuaries on professionalism questions - can you guess what they said? Come refresh your knowledge of actuarial professionalism in this interactive session! This trivia game will cover a number of topics, helping you determine what you know and what you might want to review. Who said professionalism can’t be fun? This session may count as Professional Continuing Education credits.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Michael Chen, Kathryn Walker, Emilee Kuhn, Adina Landesman
Ask a Regulator
During this session, each member of a panel of regulators will field questions about current issues, the rate regulation process in their state, and other concerns raised by the audience. Audience suggested “Hot Button” issues and concerns will be discussed. The differences and the similarities in regulatory approach should become apparent.
Source:
2015 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rebecca Williams
Panelists:
Birny Birnbaum, Kathryn Koch, Carl Sornson, Lynne Wehmueller, Charles Angell, D. Lee Barclay
