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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
How to Best Support Underwriting Operations Using Predictive Modeling
In P&C insurance business, Actuaries and underwriters are dealing with risks from different perspectives. Particularly, as two major pricing stages in P&C insurance, actuarial pricing and underwriting pricing are different by nature, the corresponding analytical approaches applied in the two pricing areas are also different regarding their different business considerations .
In this session, we will discuss the differences between actuarial pricing analytics and underwriting pricing analytics in both personal lines and commercial lines. Specifically, we will address the following topics:
1. Level of predictive modeling
2. Predictive modeling design
3. Target variable selection
4. Predictive variable selection
5. Model validation methodologies
6. Business implementations and IT implementations
In the presentation, we will use real examples which we experienced in both US market and China market.
Source:
2015 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jean-Frederic Breton
Panelists:
Jun Yan, Yousheng Xu, Fang Yang
Foreseeing Synergies: A Changing Global System, Emerging Risks and 'Catastrophe' Dynamics
If, as the saying is, 'We wear the chains we forge in life', then certain kinds of large-scale 'shaping' or facilitating choices and events within the global system can be tied to emerging risks and the so called 'catastrophes' that arise because of them. If short, if nothing comes from nothing, then looking at how we set ourselves up for the likely emergence of future 'catastrophes' ought to go a long way in assessing their impact and scope.
This presentation looks at two huge shaping issues that are General Sessionly ignored (or seriously misunderstood) in the risk management fields. The first involves the question of who actually owns and controls lands and natural resources within the modern - mostly existent since the post 1940's, we should remember - state (country) systems and how a very under-appreciated shift in legitimate political-legal-moral "rights" within countries worldwide is costing international firms and numerous governments billions of dollars. The second related issue involves how changes in the global and regional/country 'systems' that evolved after the start of the United Nations era (1940's) shapes risk exposure and informs catastrophe foresight for international firms, governments and other actors.
Source:
2015 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Samantha Steiner
Panelists:
Robert Curry, Guntram Werther
Bringing Increased Sophistication to Commercial Property Underwriting
Underwriting tools and techniques have become more sophisticated as companies try to better estimate potential risk. Today, actuaries and underwriters have the ability to collaborate more effectively to ascertain the risk of a policy during the underwriting process. The discussion in this panel explores the progress and future of commercial property underwriting through the impact of greater sophistication in analytics, data and organizational behavior (actuaries/underwriters collaboration, simplicity/complexity conundrum, paradigm shifts). Audience participation with their viewpoints and questions will greatly enhance the session.
Source:
2015 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Samantha Steiner
Panelists:
George Davis, John Elbl, Neal Zonfrelli, Dean Lapierre
UBI/Telematics - Going Beyond Simple (Pricing Discount) UBI
A growing number of auto carriers are monitoring driver performance for usage based insurance policy underwriting and pricing—a trend likely to accelerate.
This session will explore how insurers can go beyond a 'simple UBI discount' using huge amount of data, from the actuarial point of view, and the Telematics Services Provider's point of view. Practical examples are to be looked at.
Source:
2015 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Samantha Steiner
Panelists:
Anita Sathe, John Lucker, Daniel Lajeunesse
Underwriting Overhaul
In an increasingly complex world, underwriters need better signals presented in a visually intuitive way that allows for faster, more effective response. Decision support requires data infrastructure and support tools to put information directly in the underwriters’ hands as they make key point of sale decisions instantaneously. The panel will focus on underwriting decisions and insights driving the data needs and the need to utilize improved technologies such as iPad type technologies. The panel will provide information regarding underwriting cycles, discuss the types of information needed to make underwriting decisions, comment on the challenges to which insurance company management needs to respond, and examine the advanced technologies being used in other industries to make similar type pricing/“underwriting” decisions and the opportunities to use these technologies in insurance underwriting.
Source:
2015 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rich Yocius
Panelists:
Richard Lino, Michele Raeihle, George Faigen
Data Science - Collaboration between Actuaries and Underwriters
This session will cover how actuaries and underwriters can work together in applying data science for insurance problems.
Source:
2015 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rich Yocius
Panelists:
Jeremy Achin, Vinu Kuriakose
Best Practices: How to Assess and Plan for Emerging Risks
Early recognition and assessment of potential loss exposures from emerging risks can help carriers anticipate and prepare for underwriting and claims pitfalls, disruptive financial consequences, negative customer reaction, and other downstream ramifications. Understanding the loss potential as well as growth opportunity of emerging risks is critical and successfully doing so will better position insurers to meet the needs of today's policyholders and the changing marketplace for years to come. In this session, we will explore the strategic context of emerging risks and provide commentary and guidelines for ongoing risk monitoring and integration into enterprise planning by insurers. This session will also focus on potential exposures of several of the emerging issues of interest to the insurance industry including the sharing economy and the Internet of Things.
Source:
2015 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mavis Walters
Panelists:
Robert Curry, Gerard Finley, Chuck Schlager
Underwriting Decisions: Evaluating Model Risk
In an increasingly data-filled and data-driven underwriting world, there is a growing need for models that synthesize data into information, and information into decisions, that materially impact both top and bottom line growth. Models provide a tremendous opportunity for changing how we do business but their ‘black box’ nature simultaneously introduces risk into the underwriting process. What is the risk-return tradeoff? This session will tackle what we mean by models, model risk, and - in a world that is increasingly data-driven - how we make underwriting decisions under conditions of uncertainty embedded in increasingly sophisticated models.
Source:
2015 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
W. MacGinnitie
Panelists:
Jonathan Hayes, John Major, Alietia Caughron, Erin Kang
Identifying Target Segments for Underwriting Actions using Decision Trees in R
This presentation will consist of an overview of the mathematics behind decision trees, an example of how to create a decision tree in R, and an interactive portion to showcase the flexibility and usefulness of decision trees to identify segments for underwriting actions.
Source:
2015 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
W. MacGinnitie
Panelists:
James Hollman
New Approaches for Managing Cyber Risk
Cyber risk has been consistently in the news lately with a slew of high-profile data breaches at a range of global companies. Given the magnitude of this emerging risk, AIR Worldwide is committed to providing clients with tools to better understand and manage cyber risk. In this session, we will discuss our approach to developing probabilistic and deterministic cyber risk loss estimation models which can be used at the time of underwriting, for portfolio management, and to study the impact of tail events.
Source:
2015 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Scott Stransky, David Ovenden
High Precision Crime Risk Analytics for Telematics/UBI
Telematics are becoming more mainstream in commercial and personal auto. Using telematics, carriers now have a good handle on two of the primary building blocks that contribute to usage based insurance losses: 1) vehicle/driver parametrics and 2) road conditions. Many carriers are now moving to phase 2 and looking for additional pricing advantages. High precision analytic products provide insight into a third important building block: location-based data on the behavior of others. Appropriately, these tools recalculate risk every 33 feet allowing carriers to assess risk along street segments with high precision and easily integrate into UBI platforms. Today we’ll explore a data set with proven lift for collision and related driver/passenger injury, vehicle theft, and cargo/contents theft.
In this session:
- Learn about high precision risk analytics.
- See univariate and multivariate test results in auto predictive models, and examples of rate differentials per road segment per coverage/kind of claims.
- See how the data set can be leveraged in telematics application for pricing advantage.
- Think outside the box.
Source:
2015 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Andrew Schiller, Isaac Wash
UBI/Telematics : Opportunities and Challenges
Part 1 : Usage-based Insurance for Personal Lines recent Trends and Evolutions.
Usage based insurance (UBI) in the personal insurance space is both growing and evolving rapidly. This session will look at recent trends in UBI with a particular focus on three areas:
1) The power of new telematics clearinghouses.
2) The efficiency of mileage focused programs.
3) The myriad telematics options - cell phones, OBD, hybrid devices, OEMs, etc.
Part 2 : Usage-based Insurance for Commercial Lines. What can we learn from personal lines?
Making the business case for a telematics application in commercial lines is easier than personal lines. Surprisingly, the majority of successful product offerings in the insurance industry are in personal lines. In this presentation, we will contrast personal and commercial lines needs. We will discuss UBI strategies that worked for personal lines and why they do not work in commercial lines. Finally, we will focus on how to build a strategy for your commercial UBI offering that is aligned with your customer needs and your company’s long term goals.
Source:
2015 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Robin Harbage, Ryan Morrison
Improving Lifetime Value and Brand Decisions using Social Media Data
In a basic sense, social media data has already proven to be valuable in diagnosing soft fraud in claims and at the point of sale. However, when linked with insurance data the social sphere presents broader potential to enhance underwriting decisions. For example, insurers can evaluate the success rate of advertising campaigns in drawing in profitable business, what types of messages and offerings connect with an insurers target policyholders, and how policyholders may behave as prospective customers over the longer term relationship. In this session we consider relevant social media data and tools to inform such underwriting, pricing, and marketing decisions.
Source:
2015 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Jim Weiss, Matt Hogan
Program Business: Risk and Opportunity
In the current environment where profitable growth is becoming trickier, program business offers an opportunity to boost premium. There are significant issues around availability of data, and even with data, underwriting rules can move program results from success to failure. This panel, with expertise from both the MGA side and the company side, will examine what makes for a sustainable and profitable relationship, based on the intersection of incomplete data married to underwriting judgment. The panel will also discuss how programs fail and what are the warning signs.
Source:
2015 In Focus Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mark Priven
Panelists:
Jonathan Hayes, Scott Lamb, Joseph Sacala
WC and the Intersection with Asbestos Bankruptcy Trust Claims and Other Emerging OD Trends
Insurers are finding success with increasing workers comp subro specifically as it relates to asbestos or other respiratory illnesses. thousands of asbestos tort claimants are also WC claimants and the subrogation from the tort recovery and the recovery they are receiving from the asbestos bankruptcy trusts is not occurring. We will discuss the tools that exist that allow you to estimate recoveries and more importantly realize recoveries through enhanced subrogation efforts.
Source:
2015 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mark Priven
Panelists:
Brad Drew, Lauren Cavanaugh
State of WC in Pennsylvania and Illinois - Old, New and Potential Trends
A view of the WC environment in Pennsylvania and Illinois. This session will look at the current environment, what's on the horizon and anything being discussed in these two states including legislation, medical and other emerging issues affecting the Workers Compensation loss cost environment.
Source:
2015 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kenneth Carlton
Panelists:
Ken Creighton, Angela McGhee
Presumptions in Workers' Compensation – A Double Edged Sword
Workers' Compensation was considered remedial law. As such many states had tipped the scales in favor of the employee. Many jurisdictions (example: NY) still follow the "Rule of Liberality," where, given a causal relationship between an injury an employment, the employer must show substantial evidence in order to overcome the assumption that the injury is work related. However, there is a move away from this posture towards one of impartiality. (Tennessee in 2014).
When these workers' compensation changes occur, they can cause market turmoil, with some classifications relegated to the residual market. – What has the impact been where such changes have been adopted? What are the key elements to consider in evaluation the impact of new presumptions in a jurisdiction?
Claims professionals and actuaries must understand the impact of presumptions in workers' compensation, and how these presumptions vary by jurisdiction. Perhaps more importantly, these professionals must understand how to reasonably react to changes in presumptions within a given jurisdiction. This session will present a historical perspective on the impact of changes in workers' compensation presumptions. Insights into the drivers of the impacts may aid those attending to better evaluate prospective changes in presumptions, modifying underwriting/pricing, claims management, and loss reserving, accordingly.
Source:
2015 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Lu Li
Panelists:
Jim Kremer, Mike Parish, James Volta
NCCI Studies - Unexpected Impact of WC Medical Fee Schedules and Prescription Drug Fee Schedules
Barry Lipton will present a recent study on Workers Compensation medical fee schedules and Natasha Moore will present a recent study on prescription drug fee schedules both performed by NCCI.
Source:
2015 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Lu Li
Panelists:
Barry Lipton, Natasha Moore
Medicare Secondary Payer Status: The Impact of Section 111 Reporting Requirements
Section 111 of the Medicare, Medicaid, and SCHIP Extension Act of 2007 (MMSEA) requires insurers and self-insureds to notify Medicare about claims involving ongoing medical treatment and lump sum settlements received by or on behalf of Medicare beneficiaries. Although Medicare has long been the secondary payer for medical services received by individuals 65 and over, Section 111 changed the reporting requirements and these changes may increase the losses paid by insurers and self-insureds. The purpose of a recently completed, CAS-commissioned study was to identify potential implications of Section 111 for a practicing casualty actuary.
We interviewed several claims consultants and actuaries with recent experience performing claim reviews and actuarial analyses for books of business that include large numbers of claims for injured workers and individuals 65 and over. We developed 10 cases to illustrate situations that may arise and require special attention from a casualty actuary. For a hypothetical insurer or self-insured, we also produced estimates of the impact of Section 111 reporting requirements by applying assumptions to aggregate data for work-related and automobile injury insurance claims.
This is a reprise of presentations made at the Centennial and Spring meetings.
Source:
2015 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Lu Li
Panelists:
Philip Borba, Craig Taylor, Christine Fleming
Incorporating Model Error into the Actuary's Estimate of Uncertainty
This is a repeat from last year's session at the 2014 CLRS meeting.
In this session, the presenters introduce methodologies for incorporating oft-neglected model uncertainty into reserve variability estimates. The first methodology, called Weighted Sampling, aims to incorporate model error into the uncertainty of a single prediction. Two additional methodologies, called Rank Tying and Model Tying, aim to incorporate model error in the uncertainty associated with aggregating across multiple predictions. Examples are shown throughout the presentation and a case study is discussed.
Source:
2015 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Lu Li
Panelists:
Paul Bailey, Jamie Mackay, Sara Hemmingson
Extrapolating Co-Linear Payment Trends for Development Triangle GLMs
In the context of stochastic property and casualty reserving, one of the promises of using GLM techniques is that it becomes possible to include the payment year dimension. "Classical" non-stochastic loss development methods, by contrast, usually only include the exposure and development period dimensions. It is well known (e.g. Barnett and Zehnwirth, 1999) that one has to deal with two mathematical challenges when trying to realize this promise: the payment year period is functionally dependent on the exposure and development periods, and reserve projections require out of sample extrapolation of future payment period trends. While software packages successfully implement workarounds, we are not aware of an in-depth analysis of how to deal with the functional dependence. Furthermore, the out of sample extrapolation of payment period tends is left to ad-hoc user assumptions. This paper provides a rigorous framework for understanding of how the functional dependence among the three dimensions of analysis affects the parameterization of a GLM. Two subtleties emerge. Firstly the familiar parameter structure with a constant offset variable does not apply here. Secondly, while it is possible to set up a design matrix of maximal rank, it is not possible to interpret the values of model parameters in one dimension in isolation from the other dimensions. The last point complicates the task of extrapolating future payment period trends, which becomes an issue in the context of using bootstrap simulations to determine a confidence interval for reserve outcomes. To deal with this challenge, we propose a class of future payment period trend estimators, which we describe as offset invariant. The paper concludes with a comparison of simulation results based on the new offset invariant estimators vs ad-hoc extrapolation purely based on past payment period trends.
Source:
2015 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Thomas Hartl
Beyond the Point Estimate: How to Understand and Communicate Reserve Ranges and Variability (Live Polling Session)
Actuaries have become accustomed to using reserve ranges to express the uncertainty in the value of loss reserves. A range can be more intuitively accessible than other more technical statistical measurements of uncertainty, and it can be a useful way to communicate uncertainty to the various stakeholders who have an interest in an insurer's loss reserve and the risk associated with it. The price paid for this ease, however, is a lack of precision and a danger of misunderstanding and miscommunication; the phrase range of reserves can have many different interpretations. In this panel discussion we will consider some of the most common interpretations and discuss appropriate methods for estimating ranges for different audiences and in different contexts. Come to this interactive session prepared to share your experiences and insights.
Source:
2015 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Lu Li
Panelists:
Heidi Sullivan, Jennifer Blackmore, Carver Roya, Sasha Orlova
R Markdown and GIT for Collaborative Actuarial Research and Analysis
Collaboration between actuaries presents certain hurdles, including reproducibility of shared results, updating documentation, and file sharing and versioning. When actuaries use spreadsheets (e.g., Excel), the documentation is usually in a different environment (e.g., Word or PowerPoint). The actuary must constantly update several documents to ensure consistency between exhibits and the narrative which supports them. Text which clarifies the intent and operation of complex calculations is often difficult to find or absent. This creates operating risk to the actuary and the Principal, as well as lost opportunity to both in meeting the emerging requirements of auditors, management, and regulatory regimes such as Solvency II. This session will discuss two open-source tools that help overcome these hurdles: R Markdown and git.
R Markdown, which uses the R statistical software, provides two great benefits to an actuary
Literate programming -- The documentation of the analysis becomes integrated with the analysis itself
Reproducibility -- The analysis may be reproduced by someone other than the original author
Git, invented by Linus Torvalds to handle development of his more famous software, Linux
Has become the most widely used version control system for software development.
Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) have made git more accessible to less technical folks, and its Windows implementation is almost "magical."
The session will walk through examples in the context of a reserve analysis.
Source:
2015 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Bill Carpenter
Panelists:
Daniel Murphy, Brian Fannin, Kirsten Singer
Reserving for Loyalty Rewards Programs
The explosion of loyalty programs in the airline, hospitality, financial services and other industries has resulted in the significant growth in associated liabilities on loyalty program sponsors' financial statements. This session will provide participants with an introduction on how companies financially measure and report the loyalty program liabilities that they have made to their loyal customers. We will discuss the characteristics of loyalty rewards programs, the unique circumstances and environment that must be considered when reviewing these programs, and the basic methods used by actuaries and statisticians to estimate the cost of these promises.
Source:
2015 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rick Gorvett
Panelists:
Rachel Dolsky, Tim Gault
Insurance Fraud and Crime – What the National Insurance Crime Bureau is Doing To Combat Insurance Fraud
The National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB) partners with insurers and law enforcement agencies to facilitate the identification, detection and prosecution of insurance criminals. Joe Wehrle, President and CEO, will share his perspective on the impact of organized rings on the property/casualty industry, the steady rise in questionable insurance claims, efforts to recover stolen vehicles and NICB's focus on medical fraud.
Source:
2015 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rick Gorvett
Panelists:
Deborah King, Joseph Wehrle
