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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
CAS Leadership Skills for the 21st Century
Have you ever wondered what skills the CAS Nominating Committee looks for in nominating members for a CAS leadership position? Or, for that matter, what it takes to be selected as a leader within your own company? Join us to learn about what attributes get an actuary noticed and how the CAS will be using skills information in the future to select CAS leaders.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Aman
Panelists:
Aaron Halpert, Mark Vonnahme, Camille Minogue
Hachemeister Prize Paper
“The Marginal Cost of Risk in a Multi-Period Risk Model” by Bauer and Zanjani
Capital allocation is used widely within the insurance industry for purposes of pricing and performance measurement. The practice, however, inspires controversy on several levels. Some question its necessity Phillips, Cummins, and Allen, 1998; Sherris, 2006). Others argue that it leads to economically suboptimal decisions (Venter, 2002; Grundl and Schmeiser, 2007). In this report, the authors start by reviewing the various approaches to capital allocation and identifying the circumstances under which pricing based on capital allocation is economically optimal. To preview, in relatively simple settings, where the objective is to maximize firm value in a single period, capital allocation can be consistent with marginal cost pricing. This results trivially if the problem is cast as expected profit maximization subject to a risk measure constraint (in which case gradient allocation methods applied to the constraining risk measure are appropriate for pricing purposes). It also results in more complex specifications of the single period model, although the correct risk measure is similarly complex (Bauer and Zanjani, 2013a).
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
Tim Aman
Panelists:
George Zanjani, Carl Ashenbrenner, Daniel Bauer
Building Buy-In: Case Study on Overcoming the #1 Obstacle to Effective ERM
ERM programs often face obstacles to achieving full potential. The most common symptoms are (a) incomplete buy-in from internal stakeholders; and (b) incomplete integration of ERM into decision making. These are often the result of suboptimal elements in ERM program design and/or implementation. In this session, we discuss the keys to correcting these suboptimal elements, addressing: ERM framework; qualitative risk assessments; ERM models; risk scenario development and quantification; quantification of enterprise risk exposure; defining risk appetite quantitatively; and internal risk disclosures to the board of directors. Each of these elements will be discussed and illustrated with a recent case study.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Aman
Panelists:
Sim Segal, David Raszeja
What Actuaries Need to know about Data Science
For many years, actuaries have been at the forefront of extracting insights from different datasets in insurance industry. For the past few years, a new field has emerged called data science — mostly driven by cheap computing and storage capacity, various sources of easily available data and an unprecedented access to a large class of algorithms. Session presenters will first talk about the historical context of data science and use Drew Conway’s definition of data scientist: someone with hacking/coding skill + mathematical & statistical knowledge + subject matter expertise. Presenters will expound on each of these skillsets and will share where actuaries have some solid advantage and where they could focus further. In the remaining part of the session, presenters will “peek under the hood” of different machine-learning concepts (variance-bias trade-off and regularization) and algorithms (GLM and GAM to more advanced tree based algorithm such as random forest and boosted trees). Presenters will illustrate the predictive power and ease of use of these newer machine-learning techniques. Throughout the talk, presenters will share different resources for actuaries to learn data science and open-source toolkits.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Aman
Panelists:
Jim Guszcza, Jeremy Achin
Can Randomness in Daily Fantasy Sports Contests Be Reduced?
The results of daily fantasy sports contests on websites such as FanDuel and DraftKings appear to contain a great deal of randomness. Yet some participants win consistently playing these games, and a fortunate few are even able to make a living doing so. This session will explore whether predictive modeling can improve a participant's chances of being successful playing daily fantasy sports contests.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Aman
Panelists:
Dustin Loeffler, Scott Swanay, Todd Zola, Mike Gianella
JRMS Research Hour - An Introduction to the Research of the Joint Risk Management Section
The Society of Actuaries (SOA), Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA) jointly sponsor the Risk Management Section. The purpose of the Risk Management Section is to further the education and research in the area of risk management and establish leading risk management techniques. The research committee of the Joint Risk Management Section sponsors research on Risk Management. Many significant projects have been completed, but this research is not well known to members of the CAS. This session will familiarize participants with JRMS research projects and will include:
? An overview of projects that have been sponsored by the JRMS
? Information on how to access the papers from completed projects
? A more in depth presentation by the authors if two specific projects. The two projects are:
o the Emerging Risk Survey an annual survey of Risk Managers
o Risk Assessment Applications of Fuzzy Logic
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Aman
Panelists:
Louise Francis, Max Rudolph, Arnold Shapiro
Effective Methods for Measuring and Evaluating the Success of Newly Implemented Pricing Strategies
There's truth in the saying "If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it." But what if some of those things you think are immeasurable can actually be measured and subsequently improved?
The designed experiment with a randomly selected control group is the gold standard for evaluating competing alternatives. However, formal experimentation is usually infeasible because of ethical, legal, or practical considerations.
It is common for insurance companies to invest a significant amount of time and effort in coming up with new pricing strategies; however, often the effectiveness of these strategies is in question due to the difficulty in disentangling the "treatment" effect from other factors which can't be controlled for directly.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Aman
Panelists:
Leo Guelman
Stochastic Reserving - the Theory and the Practice
The first part of this session will provide an overview of several common stochastic reserving methods, including Mack, Merz and Wüthrich, bootstrapping and others. This overview will include the theoretical basis and practical examples for implementing each method, as well as a comparison to demonstrate benefits and limitations of each. We will also consider how stochastic reserving is used in practice in an insurance company. After the results are available how do you use them? What do they mean for the business? How do you explain them to management and the Board?
The second part of this session will focus specifically on double chain ladder stochastic claims reserving models. Double chain ladder is a statistical model to predict outstanding claim reserve. Double chain ladder and Bornhuetter-Ferguson are extensions of the originally described double chain ladder model which gain more stability through the inclusion of expert knowledge (via an incurred claim amounts triangle). In this part of the session, we introduce a third method, the incurred double chain ladder, which replicates the popular results from the classical chain ladder on incurred data. We will compare and validate these three using two data sets from major property and casualty insurers.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Aman
Panelists:
Richard Verrall, Thomas Le, Neil Covington
A New Era in Regulatory Capital Standards - An Inside View on how P&C Actuaries are Effecting Policy Change
More than 20 years after the development of NAIC Risk Based Capital, there is a flurry of activity--both domestically and internationally--concerning insurance regulatory capital frameworks. Solvency II implementation is upon us, international standard setters are developing the first ever global group capital framework, state regulators continue to modernize US legal entity RBC and consider an appropriate group capital approach, and the Federal Reserve Bank is considering a capital approach for the insurance groups under their umbrella. This presentation will provide an overview of existing and proposed capital standards from the perspective of casualty actuaries who work in their development. Questions addressed will include time horizons, correlations/dependencies, catastrophe risk, calibration and just what are we talking about when we talk about a 99.5% VaR. Emphasis will be given to the continued evolution of RBC for US legal entities, the journey to implementation of Solvency II and the latest work on the Risk-Based Global Insurance Capital Standard (ICS) that has been proposed by the International Association of Insurance Supervisors.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Aman
Panelists:
David Payne, Lauren Cavanaugh, Ned Tyrrell
Taming Catastrophe Risk: Portfolio Management and Pricing Strategies for Catastrophe-Exposed Lines
Reinsurance and capital costs consume a significant portion of the premium charged for property insurance in catastrophe exposed areas. As an insurer writing policies in these areas, it is important to have a system in place to properly incorporate the cost of risk concentration. The panel will discuss a portfolio management ecosystem for property portfolios that incorporates reinsurance and capital costs proactively and allows key stakeholders to understand the cost drivers. In lines with limited price flexibility at the point of sale, it is important that manual rates reflect these costs as well. We will discuss best practice rate filing strategies for catastrophe risk.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Steven Searle
Panelists:
Jason Harger, Bob Fox
Increasing Diversity in the Actuarial Profession
The CAS promotes involvement in the property/casualty profession regardless of race, ethnicity, gender, religion, age, sexual orientation, nationality, disability, appearance, military service or geographic location, among others. In support of those values, the CAS has adopted the CAS Diversity Strategy which encourages an inclusive community where differences are celebrated and all have the opportunity to participate to their fullest potential in the CAS’s success. The panel will discuss the various aspects of diversity and inclusion including their impacts on the CAS, the Profession and Company culture. The panel will discuss the efforts within the CAS and the profession towards increasing diversity in the Actuarial community and discuss best practices, success stories, and challenges of building a diverse, high-quality actuarial work-force within a corporate setting.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Steven Searle
Panelists:
Roosevelt Mosley, Arthur Randolph, Marcela Granados, Nancy Braithwaite, David Terne
Man versus Machine?: Do Actuaries Have the Correct Skills to Leverage Machine Outputs in Future Forecasting?
One of the goals of technology enabled forecasting assessment is to produce industrial scale automated solutions and better futures insights while another (frankly) seems to be to reduce the amount of sunk cost learning (reading 10,000 good books, for example, and studying across multiple fields of learning) that analysts need to engage in to get good at forecasting. The point of my talk will be to discuss the kinds of training CAS might consider if it wants to improve foresight in its members going forward. The 'cutting edge' of good foresight, seen arising as a conclusion in many recent presentations in the risk management and actuarial field, seems to be "man AND machine" is the best solution, yet the necessary skills in analysts seems over heavy on the math and weak on the 'humane' sciences that give output numbers their contextual meaning.
I think CAS needs to have a discussion about just what kind of analyst is needed for the future, and my view is that this is well beyond number crunching.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Guntram Werther
Is It Worth It? Quantifying the Value of Risk-Managed Investing
The presentation would be built around a recent whitepaper of mine...http://www.giraldaadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Giralda-RMI-whitepaper-00092063xB5B01.pdf.
The idea is to quantify the economic value of risk management (in this case, applied in an investment context), building upon the work of Gary Venter, et al (whom are cited in the paper).
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Steven Searle
Panelists:
Jerry Miccolis, Gary Venter
Automated Vehicle Task Force: Industry Update and Update on CAS Studies
The purpose of this is to continue to discussion and spread of knowledge about Automated Vehicles and the potential impacts on the insurance industry. We hope to inform the audience about updates in automotive technology in 2015 as well as any updates from the CAS AVTF
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Steven Searle
Panelists:
Jonathan Charak
Effective Methods for Measuring and Evaluating the Success of Newly Implemented Pricing Strategies (2)
There's truth in the saying "If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it." But what if some of those things you think are immeasurable can actually be measured and subsequently improved?
The designed experiment with a randomly selected control group is the gold standard for evaluating competing alternatives. However, formal experimentation is usually infeasible because of ethical, legal, or practical considerations.
It is common for insurance companies to invest a significant amount of time and effort in coming up with new pricing strategies; however, often the effectiveness of these strategies is in question due to the difficulty in disentangling the "treatment" effect from other factors which can't be controlled for directly.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Steven Searle
Panelists:
Leo Guelman
ARIA Prize Paper
ARIA Prize: “Ratemaking and a Gini Index” by Cummings, Frees, and Meyers
Welfare economics uses Lorenz curves to display skewed income distributions and Gini indices to summarize the skewness. This article extends the Lorenz curve and Gini index by ordering insurance risks; the ordering variable is a risk-based score relative to price, known as a relativity. The new relativity-based measures can cope with adverse selection and quantify potential profit. Specifically, we show that the Gini index is proportional to a correlation between the relativity and an out-of-sample profit (price in excess of loss). A detailed example using homeowners insurance demonstrates the utility of these new measures.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers, David Cummings, Edward Frees
Cyber Risk
Not a week goes by anymore without another major news story about some firm or government agency being hacked and losing control over millions of records of private data. Cyber has stepped off of the “emerging risk” list and is firmly into the “current risk” arena. This session will present examples of what is being done about Cyber risk – within insurer IT departments, in the area of cyber liability insurance, from the insurance regulators, with reinsurers and in risk modeling. Participants will leave with a broad exposure to the concerns and types of responses that are developing both within insurers and for customers.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Steven Searle
Panelists:
Dave Ingram, Martin Frappolli, Vincent Regina
Survey Says – Professionalism Edition
We surveyed a number of actuaries on professionalism questions; can you guess what they said? Come refresh your knowledge of actuarial professionalism in this interactive session! This trivia game will cover a number of topics, helping you determine what you know and what you might want to review. The game was a hit at Annual Meeting so we are bringing it back with new questions…you won’t want to miss it! Who said professionalism can’t be fun? This session may count as professional continuing education.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Steven Searle
Man versus Machine: Do Actuaries Have the Skills to Leverage Machine Outputs in the Future?
Machine outputs in assessment practice have advanced dramatically both in quality and ubiquity. Nevertheless, human understanding of change in complex, dynamic environments and especially of pre-crisis dynamics has not advanced nearly so much. Towers Watson Director Dr. Kevin Madigan says, “Nobody is making any decisions today that are much different than they were making 100 years ago or 50 years ago, including in the insurance industry. How did you make it before you had fancy computer models? So why throw all those other tools away? It’s not like those tools aren’t any good. It’s that these models just give you even more tools.”
In this roundtable discussion, we will explore three machine/human interface questions involving assessment and prediction (forecasting):
1) What human judgment skills do you think are absent or weak in actuarial / risk management education and early career practice?
2) Has human judgment become too reliant – as the interview article affirms –on machine (arithmetic) outputs in decision making? Not critical enough?
3) In your experience and opinion, what human skills do the most successful actuaries and risk managers possess that the average ones do not?
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Steven Searle
Taming Catastrophe Risk: Portfolio Management and Pricing Strategies for Catastrophe-Exposed Lines
Reinsurance and capital costs consume a significant portion of the premium charged for property insurance in catastrophe exposed areas. As an insurer writing policies in these areas, it is important to have a system in place to properly incorporate the cost of risk concentration. Jason will discuss a portfolio management ecosystem for property portfolios that incorporates reinsurance and capital costs proactively and allows key stakeholders to understand the cost drivers. In lines with limited price flexibility at the point of sale, it is important that manual rates reflect these costs as well. Bob will discuss best practice rate filing strategies for catastrophe risk.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Steven Searle
Panelists:
Jason Harger, Bob Fox
Advancing Your Actuarial Career through the CAS: The New Associate Perspective
New Associates are invited to participate in this roundtable discussion about their decision to pursue a career as a casualty actuary through the CAS. As the CAS pursues an aggressive marketing strategy to attract students to the CAS career path, the input of new Associates is invaluable. Building on the State of the CAS discussion during the opening general session, we will invite new Associates to share their perspectives regarding how the CAS can position itself as the best career path for aspiring actuaries. In addition, we will discuss how the CAS can improve its connection to candidates and better engage new members in the CAS membership community. This roundtable is limited to new Associates only.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kimberly Barnett
University Engagement: How the CAS is working to enhance and expand its support of university students and faculty
The CAS has implemented a robust and comprehensive strategy to engage university students and faculty and to promote the CAS and the property/ casualty actuarial profession. This roundtable will discuss the CAS's goals related to university engagement and how members can help the CAS achieve those goals. Organizers are seeking a diverse group of participants including those working closely with universities (University Liaisons and academics) as well as those not currently involved in university initiatives, but interested in providing input or learning more.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kimberly Barnett
A Passion for Innovation in Insurance
Since 1984 the annual TED (Technology, Entertainment and Design) conference has featured passionate speakers delivering short presentations under the motto "Ideas Worth Spreading." This year's Annual Meeting features three actuaries who feel passionately about innovation. They will share their ideas with the broader actuarial community in three "TED-style" keynote addresses. The insurance industry has been historically slow to change, but the world around us is moving quickly. Our risks are changing, technology is evolving, customer needs are different today than they were 10 years ago. What will be the next great innovation in insurance? What role can actuaries play in getting us there?
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Kimberly Barnett
Panelists:
Claudine Modlin, Roosevelt Mosley, Jim Guszcza
The Future of Catastrophe Risk - Factors Influencing Change
Traditionally we think of the costliest catastrophes, such as hurricane, earthquake or terrorism. In the recent years, we are seeing an increasing amount of activities from severe winter weather, thunderstorm, flash flood, wildfire, tornado, and the like. This session will discuss rise of these nontraditional catastrophe activities, additional factors influencing the change, implications on loss estimate and how we respond to the new dynamic.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Kimberly Barnett
Panelists:
Robert Meyer, Debra Ballen
Blending of Data Scientists and Actuaries
How do companies optimally blend the skills and roles of the “pure” data scientist and the actuary within the context of insurance predictive modeling? Data scientists are relatively unencumbered by traditional thinking and practice within the insurance industry and can follow where the data leads, pursuing new data sources and identifying relationships that actuaries might tend to overlook. On the other hand, actuaries bring a wealth of domain knowledge regarding insurance, and they possess sufficient statistical and modeling knowledge to partner effectively with the data scientists. The two disciplines acting in concert with one another will produce better outcomes than one or the other working independently.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Kenneth Kim
Panelists:
Louise Francis, Jessica Leong, Chris Steinbach, Swapnil Chhabra
