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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Pricing and Reserving for Catastrophe Reinsurance
The price of catastrophe reinsurance in the U.S. has fluctuated noticeably in the past. What are some drivers of the volatility in Catastrophe Reinsurance and is there an implication for how reserves are established?
This session will first explore the pricing of catastrophe reinsurance contracts. Components and factors other than catastrophe modeling output that impact catastrophe reinsurance pricing will be discussed, such as: • The supply and demand of catastrophe reinsurance
• Market cycle
• Exposure analysis, non-modeled exposures
• Cedants’ loss experience
• The Relationship with your reinsurer
• Reinsurers’ underwriting strategy, etc.
This session will then discuss the reserving process for catastrophe losses in the Property & Casualty industry. Traditional loss reserves are only established upon the occurrence of a covered event and are estimated to be the amount of the expected ultimate payout. For catastrophe losses, do P&C companies establish reserves only after the catastrophe losses are incurred? Or the catastrophe reserve is established to cover future losses for which the company’s ultimate payout is not yet known? If the latter, how are the reserves estimated? Are there any tax benefits in setting up catastrophe loss reserves before catastrophe happens?
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jun Yan
Panelists:
Michael Angelina, Sean Devlin
Predictive Modeling with Healthcare Reserves
Reserving for Healthcare lines has some unique challenges for reserving actuaries due in part to the traditional structure of the class and coverage, as well as to changes that are taking place in the medical industry today. At the same time, lines like Medical Professional Liability that are written on a claim-made basis are particularly well suited to reserving analysis using predictive modeling on claim level detail. Since the issue of claim emergence is minimized, the uncertainty in the estimates is primarily driven by the unknown future development on known claims.
This session will explore some of the challenges that the typical exposure model presents to actuaries as well as new challenges from industry trends. It will describe how building predictive models can more fully describe the loss development process than more traditional methods. We will describe how the characteristics of the underlying exposures can be used to predict, understand, and account for many of the challenging aspects of actuarial reserving. An overview of available data sources as well as other uses for the simulated output of the predictive models will be discussed.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alietia Caughron
Panelists:
Christopher Gross, Edward Lionberger
Performing or Reviewing a Reserve Analysis: Structured Tools to Help Organize Your Thoughts
We are often called upon to review reserve analyses prepared by other actuaries. This course will define a set of structured tools for reviewing a reserve analysis. We will examine various methods for tracking actual emergence vs. expectations, identify drivers of change in analyses performed at different periods in time, and compare LDFs and other assumptions to the indications from underlying data.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alietia Caughron
Panelists:
Jennifer Balester, Adam Hirsch
Part IV — Open Discussion
Folow-up on the prior Sessions. The panelists will attempt to respond to any attendee questions on the Opinion, the Report and interaction with management, auditors and regulators.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Melanie Ostiguy
Panelists:
Charles Cook, Karen Adams, Kathleen Odomirok, Richard Gergasko
Part III — The Auditors Will Read Your Report and Probably Ask Questions
How should the actuary interact with the auditors?
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Melanie Ostiguy
Panelists:
Charles Cook, Karen Adams, Kathleen Odomirok, Richard Gergasko
Part II — Writing For Management And Presenting To The Board Of Directors
How do you make your opinion and report useful to those who appointed you?
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Melanie Ostiguy
Panelists:
Charles Cook, Karen Adams, Kathleen Odomirok, Richard Gergasko
Part II — Bayesian Models for Stochastic Loss Reserving
Modern Bayesian data analysis offers unprecedented flexibility in specifying models appropriate for the data-generating process. However, model criticism and validation are needed to ensure that the model captures salient features of the data and predicts well out-of-sample. The afternoon sessions outline a model validation methodology and discuss model features that can improve predictive accuracy. Participants will test the performance of the popular Mack and Bootstrap Overdispersed Poisson models on actual data from the CAS Loss Reserve Database.
Participants will then explore various Bayesian models for stochastic loss reserving including:
• A Bayesian version of the chain ladder reserving model
• The Correlated Chain Ladder (CCL) model that allows for correlations between observations from successive accident years
• The Correlated Incremental Trend (CIT) model that employs a skewed distribution with support over the entire real line to accommodate the possibility of negative incremental paid observations, and allows for payment year trends on paid data
• The Changing Settlement Rate (CSR) model that accounts for allows for changing settlement rates on paid data
The CCL, CIT and CSR models will be tested using actual data for several insurers from the CAS Loss Reserve Database.
The workshop assumes some familiarity with the R programming language and some experience using the RStudio IDE. Participants are expected to bring laptops with RStudio, JAGS and R installed. Participants will receive software installation instructions as well as other educational materials prior to this workshop.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Melanie Ostiguy
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers, James Guszcza
Part I — Basics of Loss Reserving
This session will focus on why loss reserves are needed, tracing the life cycle of the claims process and discussing the importance of reserves in establishing an accurate financial picture of insurance entities. It will include a review of where reserves are used, including some discussion of how reserves factor into Enterprise Risk Management or Merger and Acquisition analyses. The principles that guide reserving will be examined and common definitions and terminology will be explained. Other considerations regarding collection, segregation and organization of data for loss reserving will be explored. How loss development factors are calculated and what they represent will be examined, including discussion of some of the complexities of the process. Guided by experienced loss reserving actuaries, each participant will work both independently and in small groups using realistic sets of data in Excel to gain better understanding of the concepts covered.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Melanie Ostiguy
Panelists:
Kurt Johnson, Alexander Alimi, Sally Levy, Scott Lamb, Ellen Edmonds
Part I — Writing For The Regulator And Responding To Questions.
What does the regulator want to know.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mathieu Picard
Panelists:
Charles Cook, Karen Adams, Kathleen Odomirok, Richard Gergasko
Mock Trial
This session will offer snippets of question and testimony from an imaginary actuarial malpractice trial. Some will be well done and some will be poorly done. After each bit, there will be time for discussion. Audience participation will be encouraged.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mathieu Picard
Panelists:
Martin Simons, Charles Cook, Jason Russ, Deborah King
Reserving Actuaries Leaning In
In this session participants will share their experiences "leaning in" in the reserving actuarial environment.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mathieu Picard
Part I — Bayesian Data Analysis and Actuarial Case Studies
The morning sessions begin with a brief review of the fundamental concepts of Bayesian data analysis and an introduction to the MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) simulation technique. Participants will solve a simple motivating example first by using only R, then by using the JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) software.
Participants will be guided through a sequence of case studies including Bayesian versions of regression, GLM, loss distribution analysis, exponential trend analysis, and the chain ladder model. Hierarchical model structure and the Bayesian hierarchical growth curve model will also be introduced. Participants will practice data analysis using JAGS in order to prepare for the afternoon sessions but will also learn how to "think Bayesian" for other actuarial work.
The workshop assumes some familiarity with the R programming language and some experience using the RStudio IDE. Participants are expected to bring laptops with RStudio, JAGS and R installed. Participants will receive software installation instructions as well as other educational materials prior to this workshop.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mathieu Picard
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers, James Guszcza
Owning Precept 13
This session will include a discussion on issues related to compliance with Precept 13 of the Code of Profession Conduct. As a self-regulated profession, the integrity of the actuarial profession lies primarily in the hands of its members. As such, each credentialed actuary has an obligation to understand how to fulfill their obligations under the Code and most importantly, the requirements of Precept 13. In our professional lives, we may see instances of apparent unresolved, material violations of the Code by other credentialed actuaries, but it can be a perplexing and sensitive situation to determine what to do. This session will include some of the issues at play, such as confidentiality, and how to interact with the ABCD. Several case studies will be included in the discussion.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mathieu Picard
Panelists:
John Purple, Michael Toothman
ORSA — Linking Risk Management, Capital Management and Strategic Planning
The requirement for companies to prepare an Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA) is intended to link an insurer’s risk profile to its capital needs and to provide a more effective way for insurers and their regulators to monitor capital requirements on a more prospective basis. This session will discuss the building blocks of a successful ORSA process, key deliverables, and practical considerations. In addition, we will review lessons learned from NAIC’s Pilot Program and present examples of how companies are addressing these requirements.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mathieu Picard
Panelists:
Prateek Chhabra, Maryellen Coggins
Opinion Writers Coffee Klatsch
This session will include an interactive, participant-driven discussion about any topics of interest for opinion writers or opinion readers. Is your opinion unreasonable, or has it changed since last year? We will discuss strategies and responsibilities for delivering messages to management and boards, and more...
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mathieu Picard
Panelists:
Wendy Germani, Lisa Slotznick, Dale Ogden, Smitesh Davé
Non-Technical Advanced Reserving Topics
This panel will present a survey of several of the non-technical reserving topics included in the Fall 2013 Casualty Actuarial Society E-Forums. Specifically, this session will begin with a quantitative analysis of industry reserve adequacy, relate the industry's reserve deficiencies and redundancies to commonly used actuarial methods, and conclude with an example of a novel projection method.
First, Robert Walling will describe an analysis he performed to understand and quantify reserve uncertainty risk. In his analysis he used publicly available US insurance data on both an industry and by-company basis. He will discuss a number of interesting findings from his analysis, including differences by line of business, correlations across lines of business, and the impact on calendar year results.
Next, Susan Forray will examine the extent to which the industry’s fluctuations in reserve adequacy may be related to fluctuations in the results of standard actuarial methods. She will show that about half of the industry's historical deficiencies and redundancies are correlated with the results of standard actuarial methods and also highly correlated with the economic cycle. She will discuss implications in the level of reserve adequacy for the industry as well as for individual companies.
Finally, Dan Schlemmer will introduce a non-standard reserving method that analyzes Pure IBNR and Incurred but Not Enough Reported ("IBNER") reserves separately, rather than the common practice of projecting these items as a single, combined projection. This presentation will discuss a case in which this approach not only provided increased accuracy, but also aided in communication regarding reserve estimates with management.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mathieu Picard
Panelists:
Robert Walling, Susan Forray, Dan Schlemmer
Medical Information and No Fault for Personal Lines Carriers
During this session, the presentation will cover medical cost trends based on medical billing data. The session will aslo include a discussion on state specific issues impacting personal lines No Fault.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kyle Freeman
Panelists:
Kelli Broin, Michele Hibbert-Iacobacci
Lights! Camera! Action!: A Sequel
Come witness the acting of some fine fellow actuaries who will perform several skits involving professional dilemmas. The skits have been refreshed and as always they will lead to some lively and educational audience discussions. You will walk away from this session with a better understanding of the ASOPs, codes of conduct and how to apply them when you face your own professional ethical dilemmas.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kyle Freeman
Panelists:
Pat Teufel, Robin Davis, Erich Brandt, Adam Swartz, Laura Maxwell, Arlene Richardson, Anand Khare
Integrating “Claim Specialist” into the Reserving Process
Many actuarial methods and techniques depend on credible and consistent historical data. However, for corporate self-insured entities, this is typically not the standard. For some corporate self-insureds, there is insufficient historical data and/or the volume of data is so small that the actuary must consider using other benchmark development patterns. However, some self-insureds administer their own claims and others have a significant influence on how claims are reserved and/or settled making the use of benchmark development patterns ineffective. For larger entities, there may be a sufficient volume of historical data, but the corporate risk manager may have changed its Third Party Administrators (TPS’s) multiple times during the program’s tenure. This session will explore how to effectively integrate a claim specialist into the actuarial review process to identify claim issues and assist in developing the estimates of unpaid claims.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Vagif Amstislavskiy
Panelists:
Alan Hines, Ann Conway, Scott Cederburg, John Murphy
Incorporating Model Error into the Actuary’s Estimate of Uncertainty
In this session, the presenters introduce methodologies for incorporating oft-neglected model uncertainty into reserve variability estimates. The first methodology, called Weighted Sampling, aims to incorporate model error into the uncertainty of a single prediction. Two additional methodologies, called Rank Tying and Model Tying, aim to incorporate model error in the uncertainty associated with aggregating across multiple predictions. Examples are shown throughout the presentation and a case study is discussed.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alan Seeley
Panelists:
David Otto, Lela Patrik, Jamie Mackay
Improving Actuarial Reserve Analysis Through Claim-Level Predictive Analytics
Aggregate reserving techniques such as triangle analysis dominate current actuarial practice. However, there is much to be gained by analyzing the detail that is otherwise lost when triangles are created. Advances in predictive modeling are allowing companies to detect patterns in data which were not able to be detected in the past.
Chris Gross will illustrate some of the approaches and the benefits of using predictive modeling techniques in actuarial reserving. His work ranges from adding additional insight to traditional reserving techniques by analyzing changes in case reserve adequacy or assisting with reserve segmentation, to a full reserve development model based on individual claim development and emergence behavior over the life of a claim.
Lori Julga and Philip Borba will describe a General Session framework for claim analytics and provide a detailed example of the General Session model used to help predict characteristics of problematic workers’ compensation claims early in their life cycle. Topics covered will include the identification of claims expected to be large and the identification of variables that indicate loss ratio differences. They will discuss some actuarial assumptions to consider in creating the model and the potential impact on those assumptions. Finally they will discuss diagnostics that can be created to help monitor the impact of the changes to claims due to predictive analytics.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alan Seeley
Panelists:
Christopher Gross, Philip Borba, Lori Julga
How to Deal with a Risk-Focused Exam
Is there a Risk-Focused Exam in your future? Come and talk with a regulator. Share your ideas with others on what to expect and how to deal with it.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alan Seeley
How Does the Reinsurance Market Affect Reserves?
What can the reinsurance market tell us about reserves? During the session the panelists will discuss the reinsurance market, the impact on business written, and considerations for reserving. Topics covered will include: • How reinsurance pricing and utilization cycles affect reserves
• Rate cycles for primary writers and reinsurers
• The differences between the property and casualty reinsurance markets
• Increased capital inflows into the reinsurance market
• Reinsurance program design changes and implications for primary insurer’s reserves
• Implications for primary insurer ceded reserves
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
George Davis
Panelists:
Raju Bohra, John Ferrara
How Changes in the Health Care Landscape Can Impact Medical Professional Liability
Join us for a discussion on industry wide changes to medical professional liability. We will stay somewhat away from the Affordable Care Act, but discuss some of the movements such as mergers and acquisition activity, social media, changes in technology and delivery.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
George Davis
Panelists:
William Burns, Gregory Chrin, Anthony Bustillo, Timothy Mosler
How Accurate Are Your Unpaid Claims Estimates?
As Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke (German Field Marshal from the 18thcentury) noted, ‘no plan survives contact with the enemy’. In P&C actuarial speak, the equivalent is ‘no reserving method survives contact with the future’.
Traditional reserving methods examine historical experience and attempt to extract a historical ‘average’ from the data. This ‘average’ is then used to estimate the future and calculate a deterministic unpaid claims estimate. What happens when your actual claim experience bounces around the expected? How well do traditional reserving methods respond to these situations? What is the impact on management information flowing from reserve reviews? Are there ‘better’ and ‘worse’ reserving methods that can be used?
This session will discuss the above questions, introduce a per claim stochastic longitudinal model and use this model to ‘test’ various reserving methods.
Source:
2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
George Davis
Panelists:
Timothy Pratt
