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Fracking: An Emerging Resource and Source of New Risk

In this program the presenters will discuss the basic mechanics of hydraulic fracturing, the myriad of trades and industries involved in this emerging form of shale oil and gas exploration, as well as the domestic and international economic factors driving this practice.  The presenters will also discuss some of the potential risks and exposures implicated in fracking operations, its impact on insurers, and some common coverage issues that may arise under the various insurance products facing fracking-related risks.
Source: 2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: George Davis
Panelists: Steven Nassi, Deborah King, Robert Lang, Bill Hardin

Flood Insurance: How Deep is the Risk?

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) has been undergoing many changes recently.  Our expert panel will provide background about the history of the NFIP and the reasons for a Federal solution. The session discussion will also: • include a policy perspective of the recent and current regulatory, legislative and industry efforts to resolve flood insurance pricing; • include a perspective on the forces behind the push to privatize flood insurance; • update us on current CAT model developments related to US flood risk;  • explore the motivations and opportunities for companies interested in designing private flood programs; • highlight the future of private flood insurance in the US and abroad.
Source: 2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: George Davis
Panelists: Matthew Chamberlain, Stuart Mathewson, Donald Griffin

Expenses and Schedule P

This roundtable session will allow participants to drill down into the expense side of reserves, especially as relates to Schedule P.  Expect a discussion on reconciling Adjusting and Other Expenses, among others.  Bring issues that you have successfully dealt with, and maybe some you have not quite figured out yet.  If it was simple, it would not take an actuary to do it.
Source: 2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Anders Ericson

Estimating Reserve Variability:  Why Bother?

When we compare actual vs. expected from last year, most everyone knows that reserve estimates are always wrong. So why should we try to figure out just how wrong we are?  Can the Solvency II requirements in Europe help? If you are unsure of the answer to these questions, then this session is for you. Practical use of reserving variability will be discussed in this session.
Source: 2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Andy Neal
Panelists: Mark Shapland, Jamie Mackay

Emerging Trends in Asbestos Reserving

This session will involve a discussion of current issues in asbestos reserving, including how demographic trends are affecting the emergence of mesothelioma claims.
Source: 2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Andy Neal
Panelists: Thomas Toce, Jorge Gallardo-Garcia

Effective Reserving Project Management

This presentation will focus on various aspects of effective management of reserving projects.  The presenters will describe the steps involved in setting up and executing a repeatable reserving process, including items to watch out for within each step, timelines, and tracking spreadsheets.  There will also be discussion on implementation changes and improvements to existing processes and analyses, while adhering to regular financial reporting obligations, and actuarial standards of practice.  Techniques to ensure proper communication between various team members and management throughout the process will also be addressed.
Source: 2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Andy Neal
Panelists: Laura Maxwell, Joshua Greene

CLRS 2014 Hot Topics

This session will highlight some of the concurrent session topics that are current events based.
Source: 2014 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Andy Neal
Panelists: Arthur Cohen, Steven Nassi, Robert Parisi

Demographic Trends

Opportunity to dig deeper into some of the implications of changing demographics and how companies and society may be addressing some of those changes:  • Company responses to changing demographics: considerations in planning-- how much is being done, does it get into overall ERM considerations (ORSA)-- scenarios, stochastic considerations in underlying business modelling?  • Beyond demographic trends: Opportunities with data and analytics to explore segments and micro-segments, including both objective and behavioral criteria-- does credit (or other behavior markers) trump all?  • Given reports of the FIO and rating considerations in Healthcare, what are implications of regulation and the conflict between actuarial pricing of risks and fairness and affordability considerations? • Discuss potential for new competition entering the market by exploiting communication and buying preferences of (youthful) markets? • Some opportunity to discuss demographic implications in commercial lines.
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Andy Neal
Panelists: Rick Marchetti

Usage-Based Auto Insurance — Truth or Consequences?

In this roundtable, we discuss two sets of considerations with respect to usage-based auto insurance programs.  First we consider the extent to which today's technology and economics enable "truths" to be derived from telematics data, and various approaches to evaluating confidence in predictions.  Second we evaluate potential "consequences" of different data strategies and implementations, for example, predictive benefits potentially foregone with lower levels of telematics data collection.
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Roundtable
Moderators: Andy Neal

CAS & You for New Fellows

The CAS is the organization that has provided New Fellows with development and learning opportunities through the examination process.  Do you know the mission of the CAS, its history, or governance structure? Are you familiar with the member services available from the CAS? Members of the New Members Committee will provide this information and more. Here you will find information about the additional personal development and enrichment available through the many CAS volunteer opportunities.
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Andy Neal
Panelists: Shane Barnes, Kathryn Walker, Adina Erdfarb, Kimberly Walker

Price Optimization in Today's Market

In recent years, insurance companies in North America have increasingly recognized the need to advance their pricing sophistication in response to new market realities. For those interested in or already implementing price optimization, there are a number of key challenges to address that will help improve your results along the way. During this session, we’ll identify today’s biggest potential hurdles – such as data availability, model sophistication, strict pricing rules/rating structures, organizational & time-to-market issues, and measuring impact of pricing decisions – and together discuss viable solutions.  Join us in sharing your experiences, ideas and best practices around price optimization.
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Roundtable
Moderators: Andy Neal

Owning Your View of Catastrophe Risk

In catastrophe risk management the new buzz phrase is “own your view of risk”.  Even though there are significant differences between the new platforms—RMS(one), Touchstone, Oasis, RiskInsight—all claim to make it easier for you to customize the catastrophe model assumptions so you own the risk because insurers and reinsurers are expected to take more control over their risk management decisions.  This roundtable will build on the discussion from the session “Using Open Source and Open Platforms to Build Your Company’s Own View of Catastrophe Risk”.  Participants will be invited to share their thoughts, challenges, and successes in building a proprietary view of risk that differs from the vendor models.
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Roundtable
Moderators: Andy Neal

How to Think Like a  Futurist

Over 2500 years ago, the Greek philosopher Heraclitus wrote, “Change is the only constant.” His words are even more prophetic today because the greatest change society is now dealing with is the rate of change itself—it is accelerating.  How does a person think about—and prepare for—such change? In this stimulating concurrent session, global futurist Jack Uldrich will take much of the guesswork out of this question by outlining for CAS members a series of tangible ideas and concrete actions they can take today in order to “future-proof” themselves against tomorrow’s tides of change.
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Andy Neal
Panelists: Jack Uldrich

Homeowner's Telematics

Auto telematics has become a way of life for many insurers and is increasing in its share of the Auto market. Auto taught us the way an insured interacts with the insurable asset measured through new technological capabilities provides insights otherwise unavailable. And while this evolution has happened very quickly in Auto, the path has now been tread for Home. Will telematics be adopted as quickly in Home? There are a few notable, major differences to telematics in Home than in Auto that may speed or slow the evolution: 1. There is significantly more that can be measured in a Home and 2. Homeowners may receive utility benefits from the technology. Already available technology is becoming more elegant in smaller, less intrusive and easier to install packages while learning to measure new things in new ways and all the while, providing more and more and more data. What are the some of the challenges the Homeowners insurance industry will face in adopting the use of telematics? Are there new regulatory or privacy concerns? What can be collected now and what is in the works? How much does the equipment cost and how will consumers be incented to install? Are there insurance-valuable components that must be professionally installed? And how much data is too much data?
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Andy Neal
Panelists: Mike Patterson, Stephen Lekas, Lauren Vingiano

Future of the Insurance Industry – The Next 100 Years

Insurance Companies vs. Capital Markets: Friends or Foes?  This session will explore the future of managing risk through insurance and other vehicles.  The panel will include high level executives and analysts and will focus on how the insurance industry has changed over time, the key turning points and what to expect in the future in the areas of distribution, capital market involvement and how it may change the way insurance companies operate.  A discussion of what actuarial skills will be needed in future will be discussed.
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: General Session
Moderators: Andy Neal
Panelists: Vincent Dowling, Brian Duperreault, William Berkley

Executive Presence

Are you "leadership material?" More importantly, do others perceive you to be? Sandra Scharf, will show you how to identify and embody the Executive Presence (EP) that you need to succeed. You can have the experience and qualifications of a leader, but without executive presence, you won't advance. Executive Presence is an amalgam of qualities that true leaders exude, a presence that telegraphs you're in charge or deserve to be. Articulating those qualities isn't easy, however. Filled with eye-opening insights, analysis, examples, and practical advice for both men and women, Executive Presence will help you make the leap from working like an executive to feeling like an executive.
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Xiao-shu Su
Panelists: Sandra Scharf

Exams: The Journey from Student to Fellow

Exams have been a hallmark of our profession since as far back as we can remember.   At this session, you will hear actuaries from different generations share unique experiences they went through during the exam process, from before they started taking exams up until fellowship and beyond.  During the session, you will have the chance to share your personal experiences as well.  At the end of the session, the Chair of the CAS Examination Committee will briefly discuss how the current goals of the committee will end up shaping this journey in the future.
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Xiao-shu Su
Panelists: Shawna Ackerman, Steven Armstrong, Allan Kaufman, Adam Sturt

Estimating Reserve Variability:  Why Bother?

“When we compare actual vs. expected from last year everyone knows that reserve estimates are always wrong, so why should we try to figure out just how wrong they are?” “When I am forced to provide distributions, I can just have one of my new students use Mack to give them what they need can’t I?” “None of the Solvency II requirements in Europe can help me here can they?” If you don’t know the answer to these questions, then this session is for you. Using an Enterprise Risk Management case study we will demonstrate why using only Mack is not advisable (you wouldn’t instruct your staff to just use Paid Chain Ladder would you?), we will show how estimating reserve variability can (and should) become an integral part of your reserving processes, and we will illustrate the added benefits of sharing your variability estimates with your company management.  Further, these estimates can and do support stress and scenario testing for your Own Risk and Solvency Assessment process (‘ORSA’), as well as prospective capital analyses.  Can you afford not bothering to attend?
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Xiao-shu Su
Panelists: Michael Schmitz, Mark Shapland, Alietia Caughron

Environmental Intelligence: Making the Best Use of Publically Available Data and Information

The U.S. federal government is making data and information more useful and accessible. The US Department of Commerce and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides environmental intelligence to citizens, businesses and governments. Just as every citizen depends on NOAA for weather information, the private sector increasingly relies on a range of NOAA’s services. The fishing and shipping industries count on NOAA’s nautical charts and information about tides and currents before heading to sea.  Farmers depend on long-range forecasts and drought information. Examples of how the data is already being used to inform decisions abound. Can we uncover possibilities for actuaries to further the intelligence into risk management? The session will begin with a presentation about how the federal government is making data and information more useful and accessible and a demonstration of NOAA’s environmental intelligence data and other tools such as those available through DigitalCoast and Climate.gov. This will be followed by a progress report on the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI), which is expected to be rolled out by the Climate Change Committee by early next year.  The ACI and the Actuaries Climate Risk Index (ACRI), which is under development for roll out later in 2015, are good examples of how actuaries are using data from NOAA.
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Constantin Cazacu
Panelists: Margaret Davidson, Ellen Mecray

Dependency and Calibration Working Party (DCWP) Research Results

TBD
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Constantin Cazacu
Panelists: Robert Butsic, Allan Kaufman, Manolis Bardis

Credibility - Challenges for the Next 100 Years

For a hundred years, property and casualty actuaries have made great strides developing the concept of credibility and applying it to a host of problems, most notably in class ratemaking and individual risk rating. What are the challenges for the next hundred years?   - Will new predictive modeling techniques make credibility obsolete?  - What are the ways credibility will be  extended to reserving?   - How should we extend credibility to projecting loss costs on a portfolio where we have removed all the classes we no longer write, usually the ones that had poor experience. Participants will be encouraged to share their own experiences and ideas for the future in what promises to be a lively roundtable.
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Roundtable
Moderators: Constantin Cazacu

Insights and Advice from Chief Actuaries

This is an informal session with Chief Actuaries to discuss challenges faced by the insurance industry in General Session and actuaries in particular and how they believe those challenges can be addressed.  The panel discussion will cover the following topics: 1.            What is the role of Chief Actuary in their company? 2.            How are actuaries organized in their company including interaction between pricing, reserving and other actuaries?  How do they ensure that knowledge transfer regarding industry trends and best practices occurs within their organization?   3.            What is the role of the actuary currently and how they expect it to change in the future? 4.            What do actuaries have to do in order to remain relevant in the age of big data? 5.            What do they see as the best practices for actuaries to comply with their professional obligations as well as their duties within their own company? 6.            What do they see as the challenges for the property casualty insurance industry in terms of profitability, underwriting, reserving and capital management? 7.            What are some significant changes they have noted in the last 5 years with respect to how their company is being managed and what gave rise to those changes? Audience participation is encouraged and there will be time allowed for questions from the floor.
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Constantin Cazacu
Panelists: Smitesh Davé, Susan Cross, Stuart Shepley

Demographic Trends and the Impact on P/C Insurance

The U.S. consumer market is undergoing significant change in its social and economic structure with far-reaching implications. An analysis of the changing U.S. consumer base affords personal lines insurers not only a look at the needs and preferences of today's client (or target) but also provides insight into possible fundamental shifts that may emerge in the personal lines insurance market.
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Roundtable
Moderators: Constantin Cazacu
Panelists: Stephan Christiansen, Rick Marchetti

Déjà Vu and Vuja De: A Futurist Takes a Stroll Backwards into Tomorrow

Dejà vu, the French word meaning “already seen,’’ is better known as the phenomenon of having the strong sensation that a current event has been experienced in the past. The comedian George Carlin, however, defined vuja de as “the strange feeling that, somehow, this has never happened before.” In this entertaining, energetic and educational keynote presentation, renowned global futurist Jack Uldrich will use CAS’s centennial celebration—and the past 100 years of history—to guide CAS members into the future. Paradoxically, he will then use history to explain why yesterday and yesteryear won’t be a reliable guide to tomorrow. Jack will also present a concurrent session called “How to Think Like a Futurist.”
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Featured Speaker
Panelists: Jack Uldrich

Credibility - A Unique Contribution from Casualty Actuaries

From Bayesian to Frequentist foundations, full credibility standards to partial credibility formulas, split to no-split experience rating and more, actuaries have developed, expanded and adapted the basic idea of credibility to solve a host of practical problems.  This session will first provide an overview of the concept of credibility and how actuaries have applied it in diverse settings. Then it will turn to ASOP 25 (Credibility Procedures), examining how professional standards play a role in the use of credibility and reviewing key changes to ASOP 25 recently adopted by the Actuarial Standards Board.  Next, the evolution of credibility as utilized by the Workers Compensation Experience Rating plan will be traced over the last 100 years and the reasons for the success of this split plan will be discussed. Finally, this session will take a fresh look at credibility, exploring questions such as whether high credibility is synonymous with low volatility, how the application of credibility reduces variance in the estimate of the mean, and whether or not splitting claims into primary and excess components leads to dramatic improvements in the estimate.  Attendees will benefit from a refresher review as well as some new ideas on applications and professional standards, and develop a greater appreciation of the unique contribution casualty actuaries have made developing the concept of credibility.
Source: 2014 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Constantin Cazacu
Panelists: Ira Robbin, Paul Braithwaite, Aadil Ahmad, Tony DiDonato