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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Reserving for the Next 100 Years - Thinking outside the Triangle
What would the actuarial profession do if we had never estimated reserves before, and faced a blank sheet of paper today? The panelists will share some ideas from areas such finance and social sciences. They will introduce you to Thomas Bayes, and how his theorem can be applied to our problem. They will look at the social sciences, and draw conclusions about latent variables that are not directly observable, which may help us incorporate market cycles.
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Bradley Andrekus
Panelists:
Donald Mango, David Clark, James Guszcza, Jessica Leong
Reinsurance Markets - US vs International
This session will compare the reinsurance pricing approaches taken by US and international actuaries. The speakers will cover the following topics: • Cultural differences that US actuaries need to consider when working abroad.
• An overview of the size and growth potential of various international markets compared to the US.
• Different views and methods for experience and exposure rating and a suggested method for blending the approaches.
• Varied approaches to property per risk rating and a unique approach to building exposure curves for business outside of the US, which will be illustrated via a case study.
• Unique issues involved in rating European motor excess of loss business, particularly in countries, such as the UK, which provide unlimited bodily injury coverage and annuity rather than lump-sum settlements have become more common.
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Bradley Andrekus
Panelists:
Jeffrey Dollinger, John Buchanan, David Snow
Predictive Modeling for Actuaries Book Project
The editors embarked on a two-volume book project that would incorporate a discussion of techniques in 20 volume 1 chapters and case studies with data sets in 10-15 volume 2 chapters. They are now expecting publication in 2014 for V1 and l 2015 for V2. Three chapter summaries will be given by:
Chapter: Overview of Linear Models
James Gusczca, Deloitte
Chapter: Bayesian Computational Methods
Brian Hartman, University of Connecticut
Chapter: Unsupervised Learning
Louise Francis, Francis Analytics & Data Mining
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Bradley Andrekus
Panelists:
Louise Francis, Glenn Meyers, James Guszcza, Brian Hartman
Predictive Analytics in P&C Insurance
How can advancements in predictive modeling be used to better understand the latest trends and to better manage claims? How can statistical models be used to better analyze the effectiveness of any underwriting changes? How can predictive models complement actuarial work? This session will examine the role of predictive modeling in actuarial work and also present specific predictive models to show how these models can be used in property and casualty insurance.
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Bradley Andrekus
Panelists:
Brian Stoll, Timothy Fleming
Predicting Insurance Loss: Two Approaches
This session is for the presenation of the 2014 CAS ARIA Award paper, “Predicting Multivariate Insurance Loss Payments Under the Bayesian Copula Framework".
The literature of predicting the outstanding liability for insurance companies has undergone rapid and profound changes in the past three decades, most recently focusing on Bayesian stochastic modeling and multivariate insurance loss payments. In this article, the authors introduce a novel Bayesian multivariate model based on the use of parametric copula to account for dependencies between various lines of insurance claims. They derive a full Bayesian stochastic simulation algorithm that can estimate parameters in this class of models. They provide an extensive discussion of this modeling framework and give examples that deal with a wide range of topics encountered in the multivariate loss prediction settings.
The session will also have a presentation by Luyang Fu, "Skewedness, Heterogeneity, Mixture Distributions, and GLM Extension."
The distributions of insurance losses often have fat tails and are skewed to the right. In practice, standard GLM may not fit the real-world data well: 1) it assumes homogenous variance structure while insurance data often exhibits heteroscedasticity because of unobserved heterogeneity; 2) it uses a single distribution from exponential family. Keatinge (1999) reported that the set of single distributions suggested by popular actuarial text books are not adequate and proposes to use mixture exponential distribution to improve the goodness of fit. In this session, the panelists will present a few extensions in GLM to address the concerns above. A real-world case study will illustrate those techniques.
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Wei Xie
Panelists:
Luyang Fu, Wayne Zhang
Outlook for the PC Industry
This session will cover the state of the PC industry and the outlook moving forward. With several years of managable catstrophes and the recent influx of capital from the Capital Markets, where does the insurance industry go from here?
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Wei Xie
Panelists:
Robert Hartwig
Original Research Published in Variance: Reserving and Risk Management Models
First Paper: A Flexible Framework for Stochastic Reserving Models
Maximum likelihood estimators provide a powerful statistical tool. In this paper the authors directly deal with non-linear reserving models, without the need to transform those models to make them tractable for linear or General Sessionized linear methods. They also show how the same General Session approach can be easily adapted to provide estimates for a very wide range of reserving methods and models, making use of the same framework, and even much of the same computer code. They focus on the triangle of incremental average costs, and show how five common methods can be set in a stochastic framework.
Second Paper: Interval Estimation for Bivariate t Copulas via Kendall’s Tau
Copula models have been popular in risk management. Due to the properties of asymptotic dependence and easy simulation, the t copula has often been employed in practice. A computationally simple estimation procedure for the t copula is to first estimate the linear correlation via Kendall’s tau estimator and then to estimate the parameter of the number of degrees of freedom by maximizing the pseudo likelihood function. In this paper, the authors derive the asymptotic limit of this two-step estimator which results in a complicate asymptotic covariance matrix. Further, they propose jackknife empirical likelihood methods to construct confidence intervals/regions for the parameters and the tail dependence coefficient without estimating any additional quantities. A simulation study shows that the proposed methods perform well in finite sample.
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Martin King, Roger Hayne, Liang Peng
Original Research Published in Variance: Data Patterns and Risk Pricing
Interpolation Along a Curve
Actuaries quite often have to interpolate data to obtain quantities such as loss development factors for maturities in between the maturities included in a loss development triangle, or increased limits factors for limits between the data points used in the increased limits analysis. This paper presents an approach that includes the advantages of using fitted curves for non-linear data, that avoids the errors arising from mismatches between patterns in the data and patterns inherent to the curve family used for interpolation.
Case Studies Using Credibility and Corrected Adaptively Truncated Likelihood Methods
Two recent papers by Dornheim and Brazauskas (2011a, b) had introduced a new likelihood-based approach for robust-efficient fitting of mixed linear models and showed that it possesses favorable large- and small-sample properties which yield more accurate premiums when extreme outcomes are present in the data. In particular, they had studied regression-type credibility models that can be embedded within the framework of mixed linear models for which heavy-tailed insurance data are approximately log-location-scale distributed. The new methods were called corrected adaptively truncated likelihood methods (or CATL, for short). In this paper, the authos build upon that work and further explore how CATL methods can be used for pricing risks. They extend the area of application of standard credibility ratemaking to several well-studied examples from property and casualty insurance, health care, and real estate fields. The process of outlier identification, the ensuing model inference, and related issues are thoroughly investigated on the featured data sets. Throughout the case studies performance of CATL methods is compared to that of other robust regression credibility procedures.
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Wei Xie
Panelists:
Joseph Boor, Harald Dornheim, Vytaras Brazauskas
NCCI Studies: Excess Loss Factors and Unexpected Impact of Workers' Compensation Medical Fee Schedules
NCCI will present two recent studies. Tom Daley will review the new and significantly enhanced NCCI methodology for estimating Workers' Compensation excess losses, and its impact on Excess Loss Factors. Barry Lipton will follow with a recent study on Workers' Compensation fee schedules. While fee schedules have been shown to be effective at controlling costs, particular circumstances can undermine their effectiveness, such as when fee schedule amounts are high relative to Group Health. By examining the entire distribution of payments, we show that the influence of fee schedules is not confined to limiting reimbursements and, moreover, their consequences are not always as intended. We look at how fee schedules relate to the broader marketplace for medical care, using experience from Group Health and fees paid by Medicare.
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Adam Troyer
Panelists:
Thomas Daley, Barry Lipton
Migrating to the Next Generation of Analytics: Logistic Models vs. Machine Learning Techniques
Model-Based Inspection Decision and Real-Time Decision Modeling
Insurers can use predictive modeling techniques to determine which home to inspect/re-inspect to reduce losses and loss adjustment expense and improve customer experience. Real Time Decision process can provide the “To Inspect/Not to Inspect” decision at an early stage. Similar predictive modeling techniques can be applied to broad decision making process.
Presenters will provide practical examples of ways predictive modeling can be used in the inspection decision process, as well as advice on improving the perception towards home inspections. A group exercise on real world problem solving will be conducted. Audience will have the opportunity to practice the trade off in decision making process.
Customer Retention: A Comparison of Traditional Logistic Regression and Alternative Predictive Modeling Techniques
In response to the changing market, insurance companies have started taking a more scientific approach to understand customer retention behavior. One of the tools at the heart of this analysis is the logistic regression model which predicts the likelihood of customer renewal. Thanks to advances in statistical modeling and increased computing power, analytics professionals now have new tools at their disposal. Machine learning methods, such as neural networks and random forests, have gained popularity in other industries for predicting customer renewal. These statistical methods, however, are not commonly used in the actuarial discipline. In this session we will explore some alternative approaches to logistic regression for predicting customer retention. We will also discuss the advantages and disadvantages to these alternative modeling methods.
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Adam Troyer
Panelists:
Drew Lawyer, Nan Zhang
Medicare Secondary Payer Act
Under Section 111 of the Medicare, Medicaid, and SCHIP Extension Act of 2007 (“the MMSEA”), liability insurers (including self-insureds), no-fault insurers, and workers compensation insurers are obligated to notify Medicare about claims involving ongoing medical treatment, settlements, judgments, awards, or other one-time and lump sum payments received by or on behalf of Medicare beneficiaries. The reporting requirements for Section 111 concern Medicare beneficiaries who also are receiving medical treatment for a work-related injury or an injury where the incident was covered by a liability policy or self-insurance arrangement. In recent years, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has used Section 111 to track Medicare’s secondary payer status: the reporting of claims has become more formalized and the financial thresholds for reporting these claims have decreased. In this paper, we review the Section 111 reporting requirements that have implications for a practicing casualty actuary. The panelists will present a General Session discussion of the potential impacts of Section 111 reporting on insurer and self-insured losses, and other potential financial impacts. They will review the regulations and discuss the features of the Section 111 reporting requirements that have implications for a practicing casualty actuary.
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Ann Bok
Panelists:
Philip Borba, Guy Avagliano, Christine Fleming
Medical Professional Liability – Caught in the Crosshairs
The world of health care providers is changing as the provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) continue to be implemented. Even before the ACA, the need to control the increasing costs in the healthcare system impacted physician demographics and their practice structures as organizations have pursued economies of scale. Medical professional liability (MPL) writers are caught in the crosshairs, facing a decreasing market due to provider consolidation, rate pressures due to competition, and other uncertainties of health care reform. In addition, defense cost severities are rising by double-digit percentages for many writers, frequency has been seen to increase in certain locales, and several states have seen tort reform overturned. This session will explore the developments and trends of the last decade, prospective uncertainties in the near future, and other challenges facing MPL insurers.
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Ann Bok
Panelists:
Susan Forray, Jeffery Smith, Anne Petrides, James Kunce
Hydrofracking: Risks and Rewards
The number of wells that use hydrofracking techniques to extract natural gas is growing, as well as the controversy around it. At this session, attendees will hear insurance and legal perspectives. The session will start with an overview of hydrofracking presented by an expert in fracking from a reinsurers perspective and how it has changed over the years. Hydrofracking is a process of drilling into shale deposits and injecting water and other materials at very high pressures into the wells to extract natural gas that would not normally be accessible. The challenges of using this technology as well as the potential problems that could results will be explored. Attendees will then hear about the personal lines coverages available. Two attorneys with experience in these areas will address the exposures and risks and the types of claims that have arisen.
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Ann Bok
Panelists:
Robert Weireter, Marc Voses, Gregory Hoffnagle
History of Property/Casualty Actuarial Work -- Ratemaking (1914 - 2114)
This session provides a survey of where we've been, where we are, and where we're going. It opens with our panelists discussing the paramount issues of the first 100 years and how they evolved and the part the CAS pioneers played in developing solutions to these issues. Topics considered include the development of credibility theory, the application of Bayesian techniques, the use of loss distributions in actuarial analysis, and predictive modeling. The session will conclude with a discussion of long term emergent issues, including global warning, new technologies such as autonomous and flying automobiles, and the possibility of insurance becoming federally regulated.
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Elizabeth Riczko
Panelists:
David Hartman, Glenn Meyers, Roger Hayne
Actuaries on Corporate Boards
Actuaries are increasingly serving as members of corporate boards, principally insurance companies. Will the greater focus on risk management lead to more actuaries on boards? What resources are available to develop board membership skills? What experiences will help actuaries gain board seats? Panelists include a recruiter, a representative from an association of directors, and actuaries with board experience.
Source:
2014 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
James Bulkowski
Panelists:
Albert Beer, Pamela Packard, Patrick O'Brien
Customer Lifetime Value - Opportunities and Challenges
Customer lifetime value (CLV) is a useful tool in marketing and customer relationship management (CRM). CLV has been gaining ground in the insurance industry over the last several years. Despite the theoretical simplicity of CLV, it is fraught with difficulty when applied in practice. In this talk, we will discuss critical issues to consider when modeling and implementing CLV applications within the insurance industry.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Russell Bingham
Panelists:
Mohamad Hindawi
Cost of Capital and Capital Attribution- A Primer for the Property Casualty Actuary
This session will provide a historical primer on the subject and address past and current research of the practical ways in reflecting the cost of capital in ratemaking. This primer will discuss aspects as developed by Merton-Perold, Myers-Read, Mango's asset share model, and the RMK procedures. Also considered will be current research as it relates to how actual capital should perhaps be considered in percentile layers, based on the risk metrics considered. We have come a long way since using premium to surplus ratios of 30 years ago. Let's continue the evolution.
Source:
2014 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Kerner
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers, David Ruhm, Neil Bodoff
Workers Compensation Reform Updates
Did California lawmakers hit it out of the ballpark with Senate Bill 863? The law went into effect January 1, 2013, increasing permanent disability benefits and making extensive changes to the system. The session will provide an update on the implementation of the changes and the likely impact on California WC loss costs.
We will also investigate how prior workers comp reforms have played out beyond California – IL and NC in 2011, NY in 2007 – with some additional historical perspective on some of the more significant changes from the 1990's.
Source:
2013 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Aadil Ahmad
Panelists:
Ann Conway, Joanne Ottone
Usage-Based Insurance – From Concept to Market
Usage-based insurance (UBI) is quickly gaining popularity in the personal auto market. This session will start with introduction to UBI and marketplace update, then focus on developing a business case for UBI in your company. Organizations entering the telematics arena are faced with a long and costly road to market and a clear vision is required to make good on the possibilities. This session will also focus on integrating UBI into existing business models and explore common challenges.
Source:
2013 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Fred Lybrand
Panelists:
Patrick Woods, Kelleen Arquette
Update on Canadian Regulatory Capital Requirements
The speakers will review the current plans and work to date on the potential changes to the Canadian standardize capital guidelines (Minimum Capital Test – MCT), with an emphasis on some of the behind the scenes actuarial analysis supporting the key insurance risk factors.
Source:
2013 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Fred Lybrand
Panelists:
Chris Townsend, Fiona So
The NFIP, Sandy & You
The widespread flood-related damage caused by Hurricane Sandy has further exposed weaknesses in the United States’ flood management policy and has ignited on-going discussions and concerns surrounding the National Flood Insurance Program’s financial sustainability and the effectiveness of its flood risk management practices.
About 143,000 Sandy-related flood insurance claims have been filed, resulting in $5.6 billion in payouts under the NFIP, making Sandy the second worst flood event behind Hurricane Katrina in 2005. After Sandy, Congress had to increase the program’s borrowing authority from $20.7 billion to $30.4 billion of which $7.4 billion remains under the cap. Uncertainty persist about the NFIP’s ability to repay the $30 billion owed the U.S. Treasury, particularly given the program will be burdened by the probability of more frequent and costly extreme weather-related coastal flood events
The panel will discuss the effects of Sandy on the NFIP, congressional views regarding the critical challenges facing the NFIP, and other options being contemplated in managing U.S. flood risk, including but not limited to, the use of long term contracts and community-based insurance arrangements.
They will also present an actuarial perspective on current events, including the extent to which privatization of flood insurance is possible in light of recent developments, and how our profession can influence flood insurance legislation and solve a problem of national significance.
Source:
2013 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Fred Lybrand
Panelists:
Stuart Mathewson, Rawle King
The Easiest Way to Become a Better Presenter
The secret of becoming an effective speaker is actually counter-intuitive; it is hard because it is easy. Every effective speaker learns to consistently do 3 exact things for every presentation. These simple elements, however, are ignored by the super majority...which explains why there are not that many effective speakers around in our day. Because these 3 things are pretty easy to do, most folks consider them unimportant. Once you begin to integrate these elements in your own presentations they will begin to work automatically. Best of all, fear fades away presentation by presentation.
Source:
2013 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Fred Lybrand
The Danger of Irrelevance – Nanotechnology & Other Emerging Risks - See more at: http://cas.confex.com/cas/spring13/webprogram/uploadlistall.html#sthash.yzzwCEt1.dpuf
The face of risk is constantly evolving. In order to keep pace and adapt, the P&C insurance industry must diligently monitor the emergence of complex risks. This adaptation includes modification of existing coverages as well as creation of new products that will meet customer needs appropriately while maintaining financial balance of insurers. Panelists will discuss the role actuaries can play in linking the monitoring of new and emerging risks into the Enterprise Risk Management process so that it can successfully influence better business decision making.
To further the discussion, Nanotechnology will be presented as a case study. The global nanotechnology market is expected to exceed $30 billion worldwide by 2015; unfortunately, casualty insurers have made very little to no progress in understanding this exposure and in creating new products and services to address the insurance needs of that industry. What can be done to avoid becoming an irrelevant bystander as the economy evolves to manage this emerging risk?
Source:
2013 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Fred Lybrand
Panelists:
Parr Schoolman, David Snow, Charlie Kingdollar
The CAS Loss Simulation Model: Enhancements and Uses
The Loss Simulation Model Working Party (LSMWP) was charged by the Dynamic Risk Modeling Committee (DRMC) in 2005 with the task of creating an open source model to simulate processes of loss emergence and settlement that researchers could use to test the performance of loss reserving methods and models. The model was completed in 2010.
In 2011 the CLRS Call Paper Program, jointly conducted by the DRMC and the Committee on Reserves, gave rise to Kailan Shang’s prize winning paper "Loss Simulation Model Testing and Enhancement." Hai You, original engineer of the LSM, recently incorporated Shang’s suggested enhancements. The model, the working party paper, and model documentation are available at the LSMWP’s website (www.casact.org/research/lsmwp).
This session will focus on these enhancements, tests that have been performed, and the mechanics of running the model with these features. The session will also discuss uses for the model’s detailed claim transaction database.
Source:
2013 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Fred Lybrand
Panelists:
Joseph Marker, Hai You, Robert Bear
Taming the Wild Burning Cost and the Collateral Sleeping Giant
Large deductible programs present a unique challenge due to the relatively small premium but potentially large costs. In this session, the panelists will address two of the most impactful and challenging exercises actuaries undertake in regards to large deductible accounts: burning cost analysis for excess layers and collateral-setting. Potential pitfalls in commonly used approaches as well as suggestions for more reliable, practical and actuarially sound alternatives will be discussed.
Source:
2013 Spring Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Fred Lybrand
Panelists:
Joseph Boor, Esther Becker
