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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
C-17: Embrace driver data to create actionable insights
Emerging data from vehicles, aftermarket, and mobile sources provide a wealth of new observations describing driving behavior and the intimate transportation activities of people, goods, and services. In this interactive session, we will jointly examine the transformation of telemetry data from its origin with in-vehicle sensors all the way through the pipeline to filtering, cleansing, anomaly identification, and the creation of actionable insights. Throughout this journey, you will engage in debates on the advantages and disadvantages of different data sources and machine learning techniques, explore the implications of distracted driving, divergently think about new data sources and applications, and learn from first-hand experiences shared about diverse US and global scenarios. Please bring your curiosity, questions and an open mind to embrace driving data and find ways to generate additional value on the road ahead. A helpful cheat-sheet with best practices and decision-making steps along the data journey will be provided.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Ben Miners, Ed Rochfort
C-9: The Big Short, Part II
We are living through one of the longest economic expansions in US history, evidenced by the performance of the US market over the past decade and the low unemployment numbers; yet, it feels like we never even recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, evidenced by sluggish GDP growth, continued and increased deficit spending, and the Fed's inability to normalize interest rates and their balance sheet after the 2008 crisis. We are now heading into unprecedented times where the economic cycle may soon shift into recession without having ever really recovered from the last recession. The Fed discussed this very predicament in their 6/4/2019 Conference on Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications Practices and laid out their plan for the future. What risks might this economic situation present to the P&C insurance industry and are we contemplating these risks in our internal risk capital models and risk committee discussions? Like 2008, are there risks we are failing to recognize and contemplate in our risk capital models now? Are we ready for another major financial event? This session will shed more light into the events that got us to our current economic situation and how these potential risks like monetary system change, civil unrest, and high inflation will impact areas of actuarial interest, like ORSA, RBC, risk capital modeling, investment income, trend, claims patterns, rate filings, and regulatory changes.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Robert Anderson, Jeffrey Snider
C-55: Visual Thinking – Data Visualization for Actuaries and Data Scientists
The goal of this session is to provide actionable insights into the rapidly-evolving data visualization realm and empower actuaries and data scientists with data visualization tools to achieve high-impact results in story-telling and decision-making. We will provide basic principles of data visualization and use them to recommend a data visualization framework which includes step-by-step guidelines to creating successful visualizations tailored to suit the practicalities of day-to-day actuarial work. A focus will be placed on describing the thinking and design track from the perspective of actuarial science and data science.
A one-page summary of the visualization framework will be provided, including a list of actionable data visualization principles and further readings.
During this interactive session, we will engage audiences to brainstorm on their key challenges around data visualization, include hands-on exercises through polling to reinforce learning, and offer time for the audience to discuss and reflect on their key takeaways.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Marcela Granados, Corey Alfieri, Neil Greiner, Nan (Jenny) Zhang
C-58: Workers Compensation - Current Issues and Future Game Changers
This session will start with current Workers Compensation issues and bridge to potential future game changers for the line as a whole. The specific topics will be:
1) A cost comparison between Workers Compensation and Group Health Insurance for similar injuries
2) The NCCI experience rating plan through a predictive modeling lens
3) An interactive discussion of major future societal developments that could be game changers on Workers Compensation.
The WC and GH comparison provides strong public policy input into WC fee schedule designs.
The Experience Rating Plan analysis quantifies the value of longer experience periods when evaluating small risks.
The game changer section will bring context to the likelihood of key issues facing workers compensation and the potential impact on workers compensation costs.
The audience will be involved through live polling, and the handouts will include additional state-specific information beyond what is discussed by the presenters.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Barry Lipton, Sean Cooper, Raji Chadarevian
C-12: Current Challenges and Future Prospects of Fire Insurance in Japan
In this session, we will introduce the current situation and challenges of fire insurance in Japan. Japan is one of the world’s leading natural disaster countries, and suffers from earthquakes and typhoons ever year. The Tohoku Earthquake in 2011 will be remembered by US actuaries. Since then several natural disasters have occurred. The earthquakes, heavy rains and typhoons that occurred from June to September in 2018 have caused insurance payments of JPY 1.7 trillion (USD 15 billion). With these backgrounds, we will introduce the issues Japanese P&C insurers have and how they try to cope with the challenges.
In addition, Japanese P&C insurers are trying to implement Insurtech to the fire insurance as one of the measures. We will also introduce use cases on Insurtech in Japan and describe the future prospects of Japanese actuaries.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Yohei Konishi, Nobuyuki Ozeki, Daisuke Shimamoto, Mitsuru Tomono, Hirohisa Mikogami, Naoki Hamaguchi, Hiroyuki Togashi, Yuuta Uematsu
C-11: Claims Analytics using Multivariate Survival Analysis: A Legal Representation Model
Our claims team asked us to identify "pain points" for our customers by determining the points in the life cycle of a claim when claimants are most likely to take on legal representation, and identifying factors that affect the likelihood of legal representation. A key challenge in building this model is that the data are censored: we don't know if an open claim will eventually become represented. Participants will learn how to approach such questions using a Cox proportional hazards model, and how to adapt traditional model validation techniques when test data are censored. The audience will participate in the discussion through interactive polling about the factors influencing legal representation, and brainstorming ideas for actions that the claims team might take in response to these factors. The session will be reinforced by a handout that provides sample code and output, illustrating how to apply these techniques using open source software.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Craig Sloss
AR-14: Triangle Free Reserving: The Power of Dis-aggregated Data
This presentation will incorporate an overview of triangle free reserving techniques outlining strengths and challenges of applying these methods. There will also be a comparison of performance to other established reserving methodologies. The presentation will conclude with an identification of instances where we believe the triangle free techniques would expect to outperform the triangle based approaches.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Brian Mittleberg, Trevar Withers
AR-13: Bayesian Techniques: From Theory to Practice
The first half of this session will cover Bayesian stochastic models, highlighting the evolution from prior to posterior distributions assumptions that employ likelihood functions calculated from a GLM model. The session will describe the underlying Bayesian statistical framework in simple terms and how that is employed within the reserving context. Some popular Bayesian sampling techniques will be described in layman’s term.
The second half of this session will demonstrate how the theories introduced in the first half can be deployed in practice by examining select models from Meyers’ monograph and going through one example step-by-step. This session will conclude with a discussion on the strengths/weaknesses of these Bayesian models compared to bootstraps and the deterministic methods, followed by Q&A in the end.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Enbo Jiang
AR-12: Reserve Variability: A Practical Guide
This session will focus on the practical aspects of a variability study. The first half will focus on how analysis of reserve variability is performed in a real-world environment, including some of the common obstacles and ways to overcome them. We will examine the strengths and weaknesses of several variability models. A framework will be provided which will enable the practitioner to select from a variety of methods. The second half will focus on the uses and results of a variability study at an insurer. We will discuss some of the drivers of variability and show how various portfolio attributes can impact variability in unexpected ways. We will also discuss how the outputs from the variability study can help answer other business questions. We will discuss ways a variability study might require refinement depending on which areas of the distribution are being considered.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Nina Gau
Panelists:
Simon Day, Christina (Tina) Gwilliam, Jonathan Sappington
ST-11: The Board's Role in Monitoring the Loss Reserve Process
This is planned as a very interactive session. Participants will be asked to weigh in on the role of the Board, what Boards need to know when evaluating the environment within which reserves are established, and the questions that Board members might ask and procedures they might follow in executing their fiduciary responsibilities.
Results of the discussion are likely to be reflected in a paper being written by Brian Brown, Pat Teufel, Steve Wilson (prior group chief actuary at Zurich) and Michael Price (FCAS, prior CEO of Platinum Reinsurance and Chair of the Audit Committee for Hanover (THG)).
The paper will consider whether the changes that have occurred since the S&P article entitled "Insurance Actuaries: A Crisis of Credibility" have been sufficient for the public to trust that reserve surprises are less likely to occur or will be significantly reduced in magnitude. Consideration will be given to changes in all aspects of the reserve process: have actuarial methods improved sufficiently to identify changes in market condition and take them into account in the reserving process; have internal controls evolved such that company managements must document and explain material deviations from the actuarial estimates; and have boards, in their oversight role, become sufficiently aware of pitfalls to ask appropriate questions and demand appropriate disclosures.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jason Harland
Panelists:
Patricia Teufel, Brian Brown
C-50: Traditional Actuaries transformed by Chinese insurtech industry
Although its insurance market is not yet mature enough to support complete innovation, China’s insurance industry is experiencing significant growth in the past several decades and it is expected to contribute to one third of global premium increase by 2030.
The supply gap left by slowly reforming Chinese state-owned financial institutions has provided opportunities for Chinese fin-tech players with new, disruptive insurtech providers emerging to challenge insurance industry incumbents. Some of these integrated insurance products foster ground-breaking innovations.
This session will illustrate the current market landscape faced by Chinese P&C insurers, their opportunities and challenges in insurance innovations, as well as the transformation of actuary’s role.
Two actuaries from an international reinsurance company and a local tech firm will also share details of insurtech collaboration between them as well as their professional role expansion during the process.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Sheen Allen, Xiang Ji
C-22: GLM vs. Machine Learning - with Case Studies in Pricing
GLM based predictive modeling becomes a standard practice in auto pricing. At the same time, machine learning is getting more and more popular. Though it is hard to explain the rationale of results, many modelers believe machine learning is a way more powerful tool than GLM in term of predictive power.
A comparison on GLM approach vs. machine learning approach can be interesting and useful in many P&C pricing and underwriting predictive modeling projects. In this session, we will discuss pros and cons of the two modeling approaches. We will specifically describe major challenges of using each of the two approaches. A case study with a data set of three years auto customers from a mid-sized company will be used to show the concepts, results and conclusions.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Jun Zhou
C-13: Data Science: The Changing Role of a Pricing Actuary
The insurance industry is undergoing a transformation, and actuaries get to be in the driver’s seat of this data-driven, technology revolution. With the incorporation of cutting-edge machine-learning techniques and powerful features to automate data treatment and creation of models, the day-to-day responsibilities of a pricing actuary are changing.
On the flip side, the additional complexity of rating algorithms creates a fundamental need for understanding, validating and communicating the output of those models. Actuaries have the perfect background to contribute in this journey. This session will give insights on the skills to develop to have success in this role.
Speakers will provide story-telling experience and share visualization examples (available in handout) to ease communication and facilitate model acceptance. The audience will be asked to share their thoughts and reflections on those use cases examples.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Greg Frankowiak, Stephane Provost
ST-10: The Exponential Insurance Professional & the Industrial Revolution 4.0
The world is changing at an increasing pace and is disrupting everything from how one orders goods and services to how they take a taxi or Uber. Increasingly, this disruption is affecting the work of actuaries. Moreover, actuaries are being asked to provide more value-added services. Not only is this requiring actuaries to leverage exponential technologies not traditionally used in the insurance industry, but it is also impacting the types of staffing and training models utilized by actuaries. With a broader trend to alternative workforce arrangements, such as the gig economy and crowdsourcing, how will actuaries transition to this new future of working? What are the different types of off-balance sheet workers? How can companies create a strategy to deal with the hybrid workforce that involves different types of workers, cross-country borders, and other changes?
Another potential impact to actuaries and the insurance industry is the fourth industrial revolution, which is evolving at an exponential pace, connecting the digital and physical worlds. Survival during this time is a challenge for all organizations as they compete in an environment where taking advantage of technology is critical. The discussion will focus on perspectives on thriving in this environment ranging from what we learned from previous revolutions to leveraging new capabilities such as IoT digital twins, and machine learning.
Join this session to learn how actuaries, actuarial functions and the insurance industry can successfully prepare themselves for this change, and create an advantage for the insurance industry during this time of transformation.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Nina Gau
Panelists:
Matthew Carrier, Nathan Pohle, Vera Sakalova
ST-9: Recent Weather Extremes: Historical Outliers or the Norm of the Future?
This presentation will cover four topics. The first will be an overview of some of the recent weather disasters as they have impacted the US and other parts of the world. The overview will cite examples from the record 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the California Wildfires of 2017 and 2018, the extreme winter weather (cold and snowstorms) of 2018 and 2019 across the US, and from the extreme weather that has been occurring in Asia, Africa, Europe, and the South Pacific. The second part will summarize how and why we expect weather extremes to change in the future under continued climate change. The third part of the presentation will provide a brief explanation of a relatively new branch of climate change science known as extreme event attribution and the levels of confidence we have for different weather phenomena and why. The last section will put some of the extreme weather discussed in the first part into perspective with some commentary on whether they are simply expected outliers or whether collectively they are defining a new normal that is being influence by climate change.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Clifford Rossi
Panelists:
Peter Sousounis
PD-8: NAIC Changes for the Appointed Actuary
The NAIC recently updated the instructions for the definition of an Appointed Actuary in the P/C Actuarial Opinion Instructions. In addition, the NAIC has approved the CAS syllabus as meeting the requirements for an Appointed Actuary starting in 2021. What are these changes? What are the new requirements for you as an Appointed Actuary? What if you received your designation years ago? Come and hear the Director of Research and Actuarial from NAIC, a CAS member who has been deeply involved, and the CAS Staff Actuary as they discuss the recent changes and how these change impact the duties of the Appointed Actuary.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jason Harland
Panelists:
Kris DeFrain, Chris Nyce, Kendall Williams
PD-7: Actuaries and the Law
Sometimes you just have to face it. There may be legal hurdles you will struggle with in your reserving career. Come and listen as lawyers talk about actuaries (instead of the other way around) and where they have misstepped or side-stepped across fine lines that separate good actuaries from great actuaries.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Adam Walter
Panelists:
Patrick Cantilo, James Dugan
PD-6: Reserving War Stories: Statement of Actuarial Opinion Edition
As Spider Man often said, “With great power comes great responsibility”. Statements of Actuarial Opinion provide our profession a special role in the regulatory process, supporting insurer solvency for the good of the general public. Appointed Actuaries have many responsibilities which are outlined in various guidelines. In this session we’ll wrestle with some of the unique challenges and potential issues you may encounter as an Appointed Actuary. We’ll talk through key areas of the Statement of Actuarial Opinion, Actuarial Opinion Summary and Actuary Report highlighting common pitfalls as well as best practices. Come and learn from those who have prepared (consulting actuary) and reviewed (insurance regulator) documents, and learn how to avoid red flags.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Adam Walter
Panelists:
Miriam Fisk, Christina (Tina) Gwilliam, Joshua Merck
C-57: Wheels – Commercial Auto is Getting Personal
This session will provide an update to the Commercial Auto industry experience, most recently presented at this year’s CARe, last years CLRS, and prior CAS Webinar.
Although there has been significant rate improvements in the past few years, recent results have still been rather challenging. This session will investigate why, including an analysis of lengthening LDFs and reserving issues. Additional claim drivers and litigation trends will be reviewed, including a diagnosis of the past and potential remedies for the future from a product manager’s perspective. A comparison of commercial and personal auto trends, and drivers, will also be explored. An underwriter / commercial auto product manager who has lived through the wheels ups and downs over the last decade will give their experience from a ground level perspective, including measures to help underwriters improve their insights in this continually challenging line of business.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
John Buchanan, Jennifer Stevens
AR-11: Isn't it True? Questioning Our Conventional Wisdom
The session will promote a discussion by questioning several widely held actuarial beliefs. Is the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method deterministic? Do link-ratios have a statistical meaning? Is severity risk diversifiable in a loss reserving context? In each case, the counter-point is analyzed as a convolution equation. The session will use polling to gauge audience opinions before and after a discussion of each topic.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jason Harland
Panelists:
James Ely
FR-6: IFRS 17 – Is your Company on Its Way?
IFRS 17 reporting standards are expected to be operational in 2022, with comparative financial statements for 2021. Even though IFRS standards will not be required for U.S. financial reporting, many US Companies have foreign affiliates who will be required to report under IFRS 17. Furthermore, many executives in US firms understand that competition for international capital will require them to be able to present their earnings and balance sheets on an IFRS basis if they want to compete for international capital. For most foreign companies, implementation efforts are well underway while some US firms are still determining the scope of the changes they will need to make.
This session will begin with the basic principles of IFRS 17 and what steps P&C insurance companies will need to take to comply with IFRS standards. The speakers will present some questions and challenges faced by companies as they begin the transformation. The issues presented in this session will be a good introduction for actuaries who are considering attending the IFRS 17 round table discussions.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
David Third
Panelists:
Nathalie Begin, Matthew Shockley
C-40: A Quantum Leap in Benchmarking Unpaid Claims
Unpaid claim distributions are a critical component of many different risk management applications. Prior research has suggested that commonly used models tend to underestimate the breadth of the distribution of possible outcomes so benchmarks to help gauge the quality of the distribution are needed. Extensive research based on over 30,000 triangles of industry data over a 10-year span has provided new insights into benchmarking all models, including deterministic ranges and correlation. These insights have important implications for all uses of reserve variability modeling, including capital modeling and enterprise risk management that will be illustrated by comparing actual results from common methods and models with new benchmarks derived from the research.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Mark Shapland
AR-10: Loss Reserve Variability: Two Fundamental Models – Part Two
Understanding reserve variability has become an important skill for the practicing actuary. Moving from point estimates and deterministic ranges to distributions of possible outcomes is one of the critical quantitative building blocks for effective Enterprise Risk Management. Insurance executives, regulators, risk managers and rating agencies are all raising the bar for the actuarial profession with respect to discussing and disclosing insurance risk calculations.
Based on material from the Reserve Variability Limited Attendance Seminar, this mini workshop will cover two commonly used models for reserve variability: Mack and ODP Bootstrap. The instructors will present both the background to the models and how to implement them using hands on exercises.
The mini workshop is limited to the first 40 participants and will be run in two back-to-back concurrent sessions. The first session will introduce the Mack model and the second session will introduce the ODP bootstrap model. Participants will receive Excel files prior to the session and are expected to bring their laptop to the sessions in order to complete the exercises.
Excel Files: https://www.casact.org/education/clrs/2019/AR-9.zip
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gregory Chrin
Panelists:
Mark Shapland, Michael McPhail
AR-9: Loss Reserve Variability: Two Fundamental Models – Part One
Understanding reserve variability has become an important skill for the practicing actuary. Moving from point estimates and deterministic ranges to distributions of possible outcomes is one of the critical quantitative building blocks for effective Enterprise Risk Management. Insurance executives, regulators, risk managers and rating agencies are all raising the bar for the actuarial profession with respect to discussing and disclosing insurance risk calculations.
Based on material from the Reserve Variability Limited Attendance Seminar, this mini workshop will cover two commonly used models for reserve variability: Mack and ODP Bootstrap. The instructors will present both the background to the models and how to implement them using hands on exercises.
The mini workshop is limited to the first 40 participants and will be run in two back-to-back concurrent sessions. The first session will introduce the Mack model and the second session will introduce the ODP bootstrap model. Participants will receive Excel files prior to the session and are expected to bring their laptop to the sessions in order to complete the exercises.
Excel Files: https://www.casact.org/education/clrs/2019/AR-9.zip
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gregory Chrin
Panelists:
Mark Shapland, Michael McPhail
AR-8: A Quantum Leap in Benchmarking Unpaid Claims
Unpaid claim distributions are a critical component of many different risk management applications. Prior research has suggested that commonly used models tend to underestimate the breadth of the distribution of possible outcomes, so benchmarks to help gauge the quality of the distribution are needed. Extensive research based on over 30,000 triangles of industry data over a 10-year span has provided new insights into benchmarking all models, including deterministic ranges and correlation. These insights have important implications for all uses of reserve variability modeling, including capital modeling and enterprise risk management that will be illustrated by comparing actual results from common methods and models with new benchmarks derived from the research.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gregory Chrin
Panelists:
Mark Shapland
