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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
C-28: International (Asian) Property Insurance and Regulation
"An international panel (including Japan) on Property Insurance and related capital regulations.
Japan's property insurance regulations are unique. All property insurers are required to carry both an EQ reserve and a CAT reserve which can be described as a self-funded stop loss reinsurance, both funded and utilized per statutory rules, impacting capital requirements.
The difference between Japan and participating countries will be discussed with respect to:
1. Risk-aversion
2. Typhoon season and flood coverage
3. Earthquake coverage (JERC)
4. Regulation
Three panelists will present a brief summary slide of their country's current environment, followed by questions. Then halfway through the moderator will present (panelist provided) historical loss detail, followed by questions on global warming's impact on the country.
Each panelist responds regarding other future impacts on Property Insurance, including demographics, and regulatory trends.
Other panelists found through email request by the CAS (similar to Spring Meeting's Auto Insurance topics) "
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Chor Leong Aw Yong, Sang Cho, Marcus Yamashiro, Laurel Hu
C-44: The Road Ahead: Evolving Auto Business Models and Autonomous Trucking
The advent of autonomous vehicles (AV) has opened up discourse within the insurance industry, typically focused on self-driving private passenger vehicles. Commercial AV use cases, such as trucking, are quietly positioning themselves to have a wide-spread impact on insurance in the near future. At the same time, consumer expectations are pushing retailers and motor carriers to evolve their business models to deliver greater efficiency and transparency causing a ripple effect in the risk management arena. The emergence of AV technology to address business changes in the commercial space will reshape traditional lines of business, such as commercial auto, workers’ compensation, and product liability. It will also bring new liabilities to light that are not typically considered in today’s insurance policies. Actuaries need to gain an understanding of this evolving technology in order to build sound approaches for the changing auto market today and AV risk down the road.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Kenneth Hsu, Andrew Groth
C-32: Model data breach risk in the catastrophe framework
As the cyberinsurance market grows and insurance carriers see more opportunities for computer-based risks, it becomes increasingly important to quantify the risk and understand correctly what is going on in the cyber threat landscape. In this session, Na Xu, Principle Modeler for Cyence Risk Modeling at Guidewire, will discuss about a modeling framework that can be used to assess and quantify the cyber risk, data breaches in particular. She will 1) analyze the trend of data breach, both frequency and severity, in recent years; 2) present the modules of the framework, and 3) the model application to U.S. companies.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Na Xu, Margaret Olesen, Jessica Senou
C-54: Using Chess to Assess Human Error in Insurance Related Decisions
To err is human, but do you know why? Recent chess research identifies surprising results, describing how human error can be predicted with a few variables. In this session we will describe this chess research and give examples of how one might use these predictive variables to recognize and alter risky scenarios in insurance. In the insurance industry, human error is part of the insurance process through customers' accidents as well as employees' modeling mistakes and poor business decisions. After this session, participants will have a new lens through which they can identify and change some of the conditions that lead to human error and, in so doing, improve business results. Following a presentation of the materials, participants will have small-group time to practice the identification of risky scenarios and to brainstorm how these might be altered using the learned material. Electronic handouts will include slides and a link to the referenced research paper.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Timur Gareyev , Ross Johnson
C-48: Text Mining even your boss will understand: Using LDA to get data from free-form text
Subtitle: Text Mining even your boss will understand.
Unstructured text data, such as claim notes, can be a valuable source of information for modeling and analysis. One easy and intuitive approach is Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). This session will describe LDA in simple terms, and then invite the session participants to follow along in a hands-on LDA analysis using live data, and sample code in R and Excel. Data, code. Instructions to download the examples can be found at www.cgconsult.com/CAS2019
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Andrew Doll, Bret Shroyer, Michael Mancuso
C-31: Loss Reserving Topics using CAS Loss Simulator tool
We would like to present some research topics related to loss reserving, using the CAS Loss Simulator Tool. More specifically, we plan to use this tool to test impacts of varying degrees of correlation between lines of business on loss reserve ranges, and, implication for loss development when there are business profile changes such as drifting to higher policy limits over time. In addition to discuss the impacts of such factors on loss development, this session is also intended to highlight the value and functionality of the loss simulator tool, and to encourage its use in daily work as well as in research. We hope wider use of this valuable tool will then lead to further enhancements of it.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Hai You, Ziyi Jiao, Jonathan Blake
C-10: Changing Physical & Digital Climates: Risk Modeling For Catastrophic & Cyber Security Loss
The global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day-to-day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations. The manifestations of climate change include higher temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and more frequent or intense extreme events, such as hurricanes, wildfires, heatwaves, drought, floods, and winter storms. This session will analyze how risk management professionals account for the impact of climate change on risk management, risk modeling, and other strategic planning activities, and will examine the role of risk modeling in preparing governments and the insurance industry for the changes that lie ahead. Speakers will also discuss legal and regulatory issues related to the availability of insurance covering catastrophe perils, such as floods and wildfires. Emerging risks will require risk managers to act nimbly and quickly. Decisions makers up and down the corporate structure need to be informed and act fast. Companies must plan & react to threats at all levels of an institution.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Matthew Nielsen
DD-3: Loss Reserve Variability: Two Fundamental Models (Part 1)
Understanding reserve variability has become an important skill for the practicing actuary. Moving from point estimates and deterministic ranges to distributions of possible outcomes is one of the critical quantitative building blocks.
Based on material from the Reserve Variability Limited Attendance Seminar, this mini workshop will cover two commonly used models for reserve variability: Mack and ODP Bootstrap. The instructors will present both the background to the models and how to implement them using hands on exercises.
The mini workshop is limited to the first 40 participants and will be run in two back-to-back concurrent sessions. The first session will introduce the Mack model and the second session will introduce the ODP bootstrap model. Participants will receive Excel files prior to the session and are expected to bring their laptop to the sessions in order to complete the exercises.
Please NOTE: There is pre-reading material required that you will receive upon expression of interest. As there is a capacity of 40, please email Katrina Evans (kevans@casact.org) if you are interested in attending this workshop. As this will be a hands-on session, you MUST bring your own laptop or tablet.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Deep Dive Workshop
Panelists:
Louise Francis, Mark Shapland
LOB-12: Workers' Compensation Tail Reserving Using Mortality
A recent paper by Shane and Fowle provides a practical approach to the challenging task of worker compensation tail modeling whereby a parametric curve is fit to LDF’s and the life expectancy of claimants is used to determine the duration of development, or, in other words, the truncation point for the extrapolated curve. Application of this method in practice revealed potential areas for refinement. First, an analysis of the curve fits led to an understanding of the implications of the use of the popular inverse power and exponential curves at a fundamental level. Additionally, a new curve form is introduced based on the findings of the analysis. Furthermore, theoretical and practical considerations gave rise to an approach for a gradual application of mortality to provide a more realistic tail. Finally, the determination of a process for updating the proposed model was developed for use by a practicing actuary.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Adam Walter
Panelists:
Dawn Fowle, Shon Yim, Dolph Zielinski
C-20: FPI’s Ten Most Wanted (ASOP Considerations)
The Fully Professional Issuer of actuarial work products should know the Actuarial Standards of Practice by heart, including the multitude of considerations within the ASOPs. In this session attendees will determine, via polling, which considerations from a select number of ASOPs our panel of experts will address. Attendees will be invited to confirm, contradict and otherwise contribute to the panel discussion of the selected considerations. If we can capture and put away your most wanted consideration, then you won’t have to worry about it escaping your notice and becoming publication enemy number one. Bone up on your actuarial standards of practice (which can also earn you additional CE along the way) and come prepared to play the Fully Professional Issuer and/or take advantage of the wisdom of other FPIs’. Warning: This session alone won't guarantee avoidance of run-ins with law enforcement agencies, but it could help you with your ABCDs.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
John Wade, Abby Sternberg, Laura Maxwell
R-1: Credibility-like Shrinkage in Linear Models for Pricing and Reserving
Segments
• Credibility reduces predictive variance – example
• Similar shrinkage reduces predictive variance in linear models
• This is easy to apply with freely available software, including a goodness-of-fit measure and parameter uncertainty
o Illustrate with example from class ratemaking
• Semiparametric regression is an emerging area of statistics generating a lot of excitement. It is like fitting curves to the data instead of straight lines, but curves created from the data, not parametric forms.
• There are numerous actuarial applications – like fitting curves to development factors – and it easily fits into the shrinkage framework
o Illustrate with fitting curves for loss development and for improving the class ratemaking example fit
• The methodology can be applied to pricing, reserving, and ERM.
• Software will be discussed and illustrated.
• A questionnaire to be provided for the meeting app.
• Audience questions including discussion by the participants.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Gary Venter
C-25: Impact of Declining Opioid Trends in California Workers Compensation
The opioid epidemic is a well-documented, often discussed public health issue. In terms of the workers’ compensation system, prior research has shown that graduated opioid use is associated with both delayed recovery from workplace injuries and increased medical costs. The workers’ compensation industry has responded to the crisis with a multitude of strategies that have led to dramatic declines of opioid utilization within the California workers’ compensation system. The authors will examine ten years of workers’ compensation claim experience to measure the association between a declining opioid trend and the changing mix of opioid users, on average claim cost and differences in claim development between claims with opioid usage and those without, duration of lost time at work, and the impact on system wide performance features. The study will also identify risk factors associated with opioid use that help predict claim outcomes, including total claim cost and disability days.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Martin King, Alex Swedlow, Mary Smith
C-15: Driving Excellent Customer Experience in UBI Programs
Mobile telematics is fueling the use of driving behavior and feedback in Usage-Based Insurance programs. Coachable scoring features like phone distraction, speeding, and reckless maneuvering can improve segmentation and reduce the risk of collision. While this is beneficial to the insurer from a price perspective, one important question remains: how can a positive customer experience be maintained?
During this session, actuaries from telematics provider Cambridge Mobile Telematics and insurer Liberty Mutual will use distracted driving as a case study in implementing telematics scoring features without negatively impacting the customer experience. They will investigate the impact different phone distraction features have on a driver’s risk profile; demonstrate the effectiveness of feedback in improving distracted driving; and outline techniques and best practices to ensure the quality of the customer experience.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Katherine Dalis, Whitney Sykora
FR-5: Three Perspectives on Peer Review
Peer review of the actuarial work of others is an important part of ensuring the integrity of a final work product. Quality peer review is a particularly essential tool in loss reserving. This panel will explore peer review with respect to insurers unpaid liabilities from the actuarial perspectives of professional standards as well as reviewing the final calculations and selections for reasonability. Finally, an auditor who reviews financial statements will offer her comments on the peer review process from the non-actuarial point of view. The panel will engage the audience with several examples and solicit their opinions with respect to prudent practice.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gregory Chrin
Panelists:
Erich Brandt, Kathleen Odomirok, Carolyn (Carrie) Rice, Darcie Truttmann
R-4: Rebalancing the Off-Balance Factor with the Complement of Credibility
Many actuarial formulas have an off-balance correction. In some cases it is explicit and obvious, in some it is more subtle.Although in some cases it is immaterial, in some others it may change the rates significantly. This session offers an easy-to-implement method that provides both a more reasonable and often a best estimate set of rates
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Joseph Boor, Jeffery Smith
FR-4: Company-Specific Risk Factors and Other RMAD Disclosures
This session will explore the company-specific risk factor disclosures in the Statement of Actuarial Opinion (SAO). The disclosures in the SAO may only take up a paragraph or two, but they have an important influence on multiple parties. They’re used by various stakeholders, including company management, members of the board, and regulators. They guide regulatory analysis procedures, may be reviewed by third-party consulting actuaries during regulatory financial exams, and play a role in the company’s enterprise risk management. Panelists provide a variety of perspectives to engage the audience including a consulting actuary, an academic, and a faculty member for the Opinion Seminar subcommittee. This session will also present some original research into the SAO and the company-specific risk factor and other RMAD disclosures. The audience will be asked to share their experiences (and challenges) in writing and reviewing the risk factor disclosures in the SAO.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Kevin Ahlgrim, Erich Brandt, Gregory Fears, Dawn Fowle
C-41: Recession Likely: Expect a Bend in Trend Lines
It has been roughly 11 years since the last recession. Memory fades regarding the impact it had at that time. There seems to be a substantial chance that the world will head into another major recession in the near term. This time will be different; it will be the result of shrinking globalization and of energy prices that are chronically too low for producers. Last time, spiking oil prices played a major role. This session will explain some of the mechanisms involved and the likely impacts on insurance companies.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Gail Tverberg
LOB-1: Healthcare Technology and Medical Professional Liability
Discussion of the impact of new technology on healthcare from a provider and insurer perspective
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Lingang Zhang
Panelists:
Gregory Chrin
FS-2: The Future of Automobiles and Automobile Insurance: Separating Scientific Fact from Fiction
Collision avoidance systems and automated vehicles have the potential to revolutionize mobility and significantly impact the insurance industry. Headlines are full of hype and it can be hard to separate science from fiction. This presentation will discuss and answer key questions using data, scientific studies and engineering evaluations. Participants will leave with a better understanding about how these technologies will impact the insurance industry.
We will discuss the following questions about collision avoidance systems and automated vehicles:
•Are the technologies associated with reductions in claims?
•Do drivers disable the technologies?
•Do the technologies change the way drivers operate their vehicles?
•Are drivers comfortable with the way these systems operate?
•How many vehicles are fitted with these systems?
Bring your opinions, knowledge and questions about these new technologies and be prepared to engage in a thoughtful conversation about their impact on our industry.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Featured Speaker
Moderators:
Gregory Chrin
Panelists:
Matthew Moore
FS-1: The Essential Role of the Actuary in Innovation
Please join us in a presentation that will examine the future of the actuary amongst innovations in insurance.
This presentation will cover:
•The forces influencing the future of the insurance industry,
•How those forces and trends can be used to formulate a road map for the future of the industry
•The challenges and opportunities for actuarial science in the context of innovation
Actual case studies will be provided during this presentation. This presentation will be relevant from insurance carrier “C-level” positions to the typical mid-management ranks. This is equally true for Risk Managers in organizations that self-manage risk.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Featured Speaker
Moderators:
Gregory Chrin
Panelists:
Anthony Bustillo, Guy Fraker
GS-1: A Recent History of the Statement of Actuarial Opinion, Solvency Regulation and the Actuarial Profession in the United States
The first property/casualty Statement of Actuarial Opinion (SAO) requirement related to loss reserving was adopted by the NAIC in 1980. This led to a surge in the demand for casualty actuaries generally and consulting actuaries in particular. Developments in the SAO, solvency regulation and the actuarial profession itself have been astounding when viewed in retrospect. This session provides a history of the evolution of the SAO and solvency regulation in the United States, providing commentary and perspective on how actuaries have been challenged and contributed to solvency regulation. In addition, the periodic confrontations from legislators and rating agencies are highlighted. Lastly, panelists will prognosticate on future developments in the SAO and solvency regulation.
We begin the journey in 1979.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Lingang Zhang
Panelists:
Joseph Herbers, Patricia Teufel, Aaron Hillebrandt
AR-7: Reserve Developments, New Technologies and Higher Demands: Exploring the Evolution of the Reserving Team
This session will look at how financial transformations are being applied in the reserving world. We’ll explore how the demands for more control and quicker closing interact with the availability of more data and the desire for greater insight. Attendees will learn how new technologies, use of robotic automation, and implementation of new approaches will change how the reserving team deploys resources. We’ll discuss the changing skills required and some of the challenges that this may introduce. The audience will be asked to contribute their own experiences and provide observations for how they see their work evolving. They will leave with a greater understanding of how reserving teams are balancing the statutory and compliance side of their work with access to greater analytics and – ultimately - with some ideas on how to take their reserving to the strategic level.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Lingang Zhang
Panelists:
Timothy Pratt, Joseph Milicia, James Mackay
C-1: Actuarial Approaches for Measuring & Managing Non-Traditional Risks
This presentation will provide the theoretical construct for, and practical applications of, applied actuarial and risk analytic techniques in order to analyze several emerging risk areas, namely; interest rates, investment risk (stocks and bonds), foreign exchange, financial guaranty, recession risk, commodity price, warranty, mortgage and current expected credit loss (CECL).
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Michael Schmitz, James McNichols, James Ely
ST-8: An FBI View of Cybercrime and Cyber Security Threats
The 21st century brings new challenges in which criminal security threats strike from near and afar through computer networks, with potentially devastating consequences and large financial impacts to commercial entities.
A special agent from the FBI’s computer intrusion section will discuss the emerging threats in cyber-crime, both domestically and internationally. The FBI will present the most common cyber security threats and the methodology behind them. Ways to protect computer networks will be explained.
In addition, we will discuss the latest trends as insurance companies build and price cyber insurance products to protect commercial entities and there valuable computer and customer information.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jason Harland
Panelists:
Kendall Williams, Duncan Edwards, Aaron Hillebrandt
C-33: Natural Catastrophes: Low risk does not mean NO risk
Recent natural catastrophes, like the flooding from Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Florence, along with Wildfires like the 2017 Tubbs fire, have shown that areas thought to be low risk were susceptible to damage. Did the catastrophe models get the risk correct? Can we define an Extreme event? This session will examine some of the statistics around these recent events, and the show some examples illustrating the difference in risk profiles between frequent/less severe events and the less frequent/extreme events. We will also look at how these type of events can affect the US economy at large.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
James Lynch, Howard Kunst
