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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
ST-5: Process Mining & Process Simulation
Insurers are continuously expanding their data analytics toolkits. One new technique is process mining, which evolved to better measure industrial processes. Today, leading insurers are using this technique to improve measurement of and provide transparency into difficult to quantify human costs, such as Underwriting overhead, ULAE/ALAE, and service costs. This session provides an overview of the technique and applications.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
August Chow
Panelists:
John Wade, Anthony Beirne, Nathaniel Loughin
ST-4: Opioid Issues Affecting Risk Decisions
This session will be led by two seasoned attorneys who are considered leading legal experts on Prescription Drug Diversion issues, signs, effects and strategies. In this presentation, we will describe relevant opioid investigations/lawsuits and federal opioid legislation and their potential impact on risk decisions. Additionally, we will describe the current status of State "caps" on damages and the risk posed by opioid litigation.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
August Chow
Panelists:
Alix Michel, David Ward
ST-3: NextWave Actuarial: Achieving Actuarial Excellence
There is much disruption and innovation in the insurance industry and, as a result, the actuarial group is being asked to do more, all while needing to overcome a common set of underlying internal challenges. This interactive panel discussion brings together actuaries and industry experts to explore the vision of achieving actuarial excellence through the lenses of people, process, data, and technology. As part of the discussion on technology, we will look at a real-world example of how machine learning can transform and drive actuarial excellence in the reserving process. This session anticipates a high degree of audience participation.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
August Chow
Panelists:
William Miller, Ian Sterling, Angela Burgess, Len Llaguno
ST-2: Asbestos and Environmental Update: What Have We Learned?
Every year A.M. Bests updates its estimate of the Insurance Industry's Ultimate Losses from Asbestos and Environmental exposures.
As of year-end 2016, the asbestos estimate was raised to $100 billion and this means that the Insurance Industry reserves were still more than 25% inadequate at the end of 2017. When will Asbestos claim filings begin to show a decline? What is causing the Industry to continue to be surprised by what appear to be unending exposures? How will the recent talc-related asbestos verdicts affect the Industry?
In 2018 AM Best increased their estimate of environmental ultimate losses by $4 billion, from $42 billion to $46 billion. Why do the environmental liabilities continue to chug along at such a rapid pace? How will the current administration's EPA regulatory changes impact the future of environmental exposures?
This panel will provide an update on these never-ending exposures that continue to plague the Insurance Industry and how companies are addressing these issues.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
August Chow
Panelists:
Sandra Santomenno, Rita Zona, Rachel Dolsky
AR-3: Stochastic Loss Reserving with Bayesian MCMC – A Case Study
Bayesian MCMC model enable a wide variety of models to be applied to a loss triangle. The output from those models enable one to calculate ranges of actuarial estimates or even a cost of capital risk margin. A problem with this ability to fit a wide variety of models is that one has to choose which one to use.
This session takes two loss triangles, based on paid and incurred data from a real company, with the following characteristics: (1) rapid premium growth; (2) changing claim settlement rates; and (3) changing loss reserving practices. It illustrates goodness of fit and graphic diagnostics that identify these problems. It then proposes a Bayesian MCMC model to use to obtain the best estimate of the loss liability and its range of possible estimates under these conditions.
Zip file: https://www.casact.org/education/clrs/2019/AR-3.zip
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jason Harland
Panelists:
Robert Wolf, Glenn Meyers
AR-2: A Hands-On Introduction to Stochastic Loss Reserving with Bayesian MCMC Models
The session will start with a high-level introduction to the theory underlying Bayesian MCMC Models. It will then describe Stan, a currently popular software package for implementing MCMC (see https://mc-stan.org). Participants will then move on to a simple stochastic loss reserve model. The session will cover convergence diagnostics, model selection statistics and graphical fit diagnostics.
Prerequisites to the course are some familiarity with R and RStudio. Registrants will be asked to bring their laptops and install R, RStudio with the “rstan." "loo," "data.table" and "ChainLadder" packages in advance of the class. (Go to https://github.com/stan-dev/rstan/wiki/RStan-Getting-Started to install "rstan.") There will be a zip archive containing some pre-written scripts available before the start of the course.
Zip File: https://www.casact.org/education/clrs/2019/AR-2.zip
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jason Harland
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers
AR-1: Beyond Numerology: A Practical Theory of LDF Interpolation
Many reserving actuaries use interpolation techniques to derive LDF at quarterly evaluation ages. The quarterly evaluation LDF are then used to update IBNR indications each quarter. There are different LDF interpolation techniques and they give rise to different answers. Is there any reason to prefer one over another? As will be explained in this session, the answer is yes.
Going beyond numerology, this session explores properties of LDF interpolation methods. One, called inherited monotonicity, states that beyond a given age, the indicated IBNR runoff pattern by quarter should be monotonically decreasing if the indicated IBNR runoff pattern by year is monotonically decreasing. Interpolation methods that fail to obey this property could produce IBNR indications that suffer from “algorithm-induced seasonality”. Several commonly used interpolates are vulnerable to this malady. This session will present other desirable properties of LDF interpolation techniques. It will feature a set of simple examples and graphs that illustrate what can happen when a property fails to hold. The goal is to provide participants with conceptual insights and practical tools for evaluating LDF interpolation methods.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jason Harland
Panelists:
Ira Robbin
LOB-8: Herding Cats: Practical and Effective Methods for Estimating Catastrophes
This session will provide participants with suggestions and recommendations for enhancing catastrophe estimating methods and techniques. The session will include discussion of data, assessing exposure both pre and post-event, methods and techniques for estimating ultimate losses, and recognizing and reflecting difference among different types of catastrophes. Interaction with the audience will include polling participants on current methods used, discussing greatest areas of challenge, and encouraging sharing of other methods and techniques proven to be effective. Content in the handouts will include illustrations of exposure determination and the various loss estimating methods discussed.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
August Chow
Panelists:
Kenneth Kasner
LOB-7: Assessing the Impact of Natural Catastrophes Using Cat Models
Refinements in Catastrophe models have made it quicker and more efficient to use specific models to estimate the impact of events that are about to occur, or that have recently occurred. In this session, we will focus on the impact of storms, hurricanes and/or severe convective storms.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Dana Hunt
Panelists:
Kevin Donnelly, Howard Kunst
C-56: Voice Analytics : Creating a Virtual Assistant Actuary
The session will cover how we can create a Virtual assistant, using voice based interface, who can communicate with our systems using a natural language such as English. The device will be able to understand, process and respond based upon the commands used by a P&C Actuary. We will show few videos to demonstrate the real time analytics performed with this idea. This can also help an Actuary to expand his/her horizon and be a part of the major technological changes in the industry. The handouts will include what all online resources are needed to adequately perform voice based analytics.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Nikita Sharma, Rishabh Chhabra
W-5: Bayesian Inference and Reserving Models
This workshop is designed for actuaries who want a hands-on practical introduction to building reserving models using Bayesian inference. We will start with an approachable introduction to Bayesian inference. Next, we will review the underlying assumptions behind several popular reserving methods then use a combination of R and Stan (http://mc-stan.org open source Bayesian estimation and simulation software) to build these and new reserving models using Bayesian techniques. This is not a mathematically intensive session. The focus will be on understanding, testing and changing the underlying model assumptions. Optional pre-work will be made available before the workshop.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
Dana Hunt
Panelists:
Stephen Lienhard
AR-15: Clustering: Endgame!
Cluster analysis is a collection of statistical tools designed to group similar data objects. In this session, we will look at these tools applied to grouping similar loss development patterns.
The difficulty in grouping loss development patterns comes from their multi-dimensional aspect. Outliers and noise points create additional challenges. This session will discuss some useful ways to visualize clusters and share some practical successes and challenges in applying clustering on loss development triangles. Topics include “hard” clustering such as k-means and “soft” or “fuzzy” clustering with similarities to traditional credibility theory.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Chris Suchar
Panelists:
David Clark, Diana Rangelova
LOB-6: Cash Flow Case Reserving and Triangle Restatements
This session will present a formulaic cash flow approach for setting individual case reserves for long-tail lines such as workers’ compensation. This approach incorporates claim adjuster estimates of short-term costs along with key assumptions (e.g. medical inflation, discount rate, mortality tables) that impact those costs over time. Also introduced is a reserving method that creates more consistent triangles by restating individual case reserves from prior diagonals to reflect the key assumptions that underlie the current diagonal. This is similar to an extension of exposures technique but for claims in a loss triangle.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Bill Miller
Panelists:
Lynn Carroll
RM-3: Ceded Reserving: It is Not as Simple as Subtraction
This session will be a discussion of the pros and cons of various approaches to estimating ceded loss reserves. We will cover various data organization approaches as well as various actuarial techniques and what potential shortfalls may come from utilizing these methods. Finally, this session will help you tackle some of the more "difficult-to-quantify" loss sensitive features of reinsurance including aggregate deductibles
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jason Harland
Panelists:
Joseph Milicia, Rachel Dolsky, David Foley
C-11: Reinsurance from the Ceded Re Perspective
This session will include insight from senior professionals on the (re)insurance market, issues and lessons learned from designing an effective reinsurance strategy including the placement process.
Source:
2019 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
John Pierce
Panelists:
Christopher Rabley, Sam Ralston, James Fiore, Jeffrey Preston
C-23: GLMs, Machine Learning, & More, oh my!
The presentation is introductory for those not familiar with modeling techniques. Even actuaries involved in predictive modeling should find this topic interesting and new. It walks through the terminology and deconstructs various modeling methods in a clear and easy to understand way. Additionally this presentation will look at the actual results and examples of how other analytic and machine learning methods are used to enhance the GLM used in pricing. This presentation will also discuss examples on how the analytic and machine learning methods can be implemented within the current GLM based pricing structures.
Source:
2019 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Gary Wang, Michael Chen, Kenneth Hsu, Donald Hendriks
LOB-5: Navigating Unknowns in Aviation Liability
Aviation insurance is a unique line of business with many complicated issues. This session will discuss the current state of the market for aviation insurance. A plaintiff attorney will discuss the complicated legal framework between airline and products liability as well as insights on the Boeing 737 Max events and issues related to these. These unique characteristics will be discussed with relation to reserving for this line of business.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jason Harland
Panelists:
Brian Brown, Carl Ashenbrenner, John Gagliano
LOB-4: Medical Professional Liability: Current Challenges; Future Opportunity
The MPL market has faced the challenges of a soft market combined with high defense cost trends for several years. Actuaries have seen inadequate rates in several market segments. Nonetheless, the market has been buoyed by strong capital levels, historically low frequency, favorable indemnity trends, and continued reserve releases. There are signs of increasing claim severity and rates have recently started to increase in certain segments of the line of business. Opportunities are available for companies who can appropriately deploy capital and manage defense costs while maintaining low indemnity trends.
The panelists will explore the current state of the MPL market, underwriting challenges presented by various segments, approaches to assessing current market trends, and strategies employed in defense cost management, as well as other opportunities and challenges. Discussion of defense cost management will include data-driven decision-making in the selection of defense counsel and settlement strategy. While the panelists have relied on current and historical data in their analyses, they will emphasize prospective opportunities in presentation. The panelists encourage audience participation.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Bill Miller
Panelists:
Susan Forray, Howard Friedman, Jeffery Smith, Timothy Smith
ST-1: The Change in Mobility Landscape: How Cities, Technology, Companies, and Regulators Will Adapt to Improve Safety on Our Streets & Roads
The pace of change in the new and emerging modes of transportation is quite astounding given the increasing convenience of ride sharing companies (including cars, bicycles and e-scooters), the change in pace of the technological advancements, and the ongoing testing and piloting of autonomous vehicles (AV). A new (and smart) mobility ecosystem is emerging with the promise to deliver seamless intermodal transportation faster, cheaper, safer and cleaner than today.
Our speakers will talk about the changing public perception and reaction to the changing mobility ecosystem. Johanna will discuss what the public really things about automated vehicles based on evidence and key findings collected from various research and surveys that will draw a picture on consumer demand for this emerging mode of transportation.
Jason will discuss how Austin and other cities are currently handling new mobility technologies (i.e. e-scooters, ridesharing) and what they need to do to prepare for future changes in the mobility landscape (i.e. connected and automated vehicles). Jason will also touch on how insurance plays into this ecosystem as well.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Bill Miller
Panelists:
Jason JonMichael, Joshua Merck, johanna zmud
W-2: Triangles Reimagined
Creating alternative case reserves, based on predictive modeling from objective claim characteristics, in order to restate the case-incurred triangle (think Berquist-Sherman, but with a scalpel instead of a chainsaw). Also, the idea of creating a whole new type of detailed reserve: a policy IBNR reserve that reflects anticipated emergence. This policy level reserve, together with paid amounts and alternative case reserves would form the basis for a new triangle, one with considerably little if any development, but based on detailed data leading to the reserve. The advantage of the approach is to avoid issues with changing case reserve adequacy and changes in mix.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Workshop
Panelists:
Steven Lacke, Bret Shroyer
C-19: Investments - Optimizing The Other Side of the Balance Sheet
P&C companies face a number of constraints with regard to how their assets are invested. This session will explore the asset side of the balance sheet and explore how companies can optimize their investments.
Source:
2019 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Don Hendriks
Panelists:
Stephen Smith, Eric Nilles
RM-2: The Collateral Battle – Lies, Damn Lies and Collateral Calculation
A discussion of insurance carriers’ collateral requirements for large deductible or other loss sensitive primary casualty programs by actuaries representing both the insurer’s and the policyholder’s points of view. The speakers will provide a background of collateral and why it is needed, as well as colorful commentary relating to collateral estimation and negotiation. The insurance company and consulting actuary will provide points and counterpoints relating to the key drivers of collateral and strategies and common fallacies used in negotiations.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Allen Jacobson
Panelists:
Rose Barrett, Ron Fowler
LOB-3: Reserving Challenges for the Sharing Economy
Is reserving for the Sharing Economy different than traditional reserving? If so, how? May it be Ride Sharing, Car Sharing, Home Sharing or others, there are many similarities with traditional insurance markets, but there remain important distinctions. This presentation aims to explore some of the specifics of the sharing economy and their consideration when estimating reserves for these risks. Further, the presentation aims to invoke a dialogue to identify key differences. As we kick off, the presentation will focus on the following key elements: 1) aggressive growth and capacity to handle claims properly, 2) emerging risk with little history and lack of fully relevant industry data, 3) the impact of growth on loss development factors and increased limit factors, 4) differences in the regulatory environment, and 5) exposure mix changes, to name a few. I hope to empower the audience to achieve an improved understanding of the pitfalls of traditional reserving and walk forward new ideas on how to better address them in their reviews.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jason Harland
Panelists:
Francois Morissette
RM-1: Primer on Bayesian MCMC
This session is intended for actuaries who want background on the Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods. While there is software that implements the methods, it is useful to have an understanding of what is happening under the hood. The session will start with an introduction to how we can use Bayes rule to consider expert opinion when estimating our parameters, and specifically the distribution of the parameters. We start with a case that we can solve mathematically; and then show a case that is not solvable; and thus requires simulations using MCMC to estimate the distribution of the parameters, and then the distribution of the underlying variable.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rachel Bardon
Panelists:
Alejandro Ortega, Arthur Randolph
PD-2: The ABCs of the ABCD
Presentation will include functions and structure of the ABCD with case studies.
Source:
2019 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rachel Bardon
Panelists:
Deborah Rosenberg
