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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
C-39: Workers' Compensation - Emerging Issues
Workers' compensation industry research organizations NCCI and CWCI will provide an update on some current emerging issues.
Excess Ratio Simulation and Variability of Observed Results
Classifying risks into meaningful hazard groups presents several challenges, process variance being one of the most significant. This presentation will illustrate how many claims are needed before one can do that with some confidence.
Efficacy of Workers Compensation Medical Networks
This presentation will address questions such as: Are in-network price departures greater in states with more generous fee schedules and how does utilization of medical services compare in-network vs. out of network.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
D. Lee Barclay
Panelists:
Martin King, Barry Lipton, Leigh Halliwell, Alex Swedlow
C-28: Opioid Epidemic: Who is Responsible? Doctors - Pharmaceutical Companies - Attorneys - Insurance Companies?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that more than 42,000 Americans died from opioid-related drug overdoses in 2016 – five times the rate in 1999. In this session experts in the insurance and healthcare industries share their insights into the cause of this epidemic, provide an update on recent improvements, and prognosticate on where we are headed.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
D. Lee Barclay
Panelists:
Martin King, Alex Swedlow, John Ruser, Mark Pew, Sara Hunt
C-11: Battle of the Statement of Actuarial Opinion
Two experienced actuaries will engage with each other and attendees about considerations for several case studies, when they have been asked to opine on companies with unusual situations. For example, knowing that you are expected to sign an SAO for the company, what are your biggest questions? Biggest concerns? What do you need to investigate on your own vs through the company? What aspects of ASOP compliance do you need to pay special attention to?
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Joseph Herbers, Ann Conway
C-13: Captive Insurance Hot Topics
A number of recent trends and developments in the captive industry have substantially increased both the role of the actuary in captive operations and the scrutiny they face. This session will explore the hot topics and their impact on actuaries.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
William Von Seggern
Panelists:
Joseph Herbers, Gennady Stolyarov, Victoria Fimea
C-10: Asbestos and Environmental Update - What Have We Learned?
Every year A.M. Bests updates it's estimate of the Insurance Industry's Ultimate Losses from Asbestos and Environmental exposures.
As of year-end 2016 the asbestos estimate was raised to $100 Billion and this means that the Insurance Industry reserves were still more than 25% inadequate at the end of 2017. When will Asbestos claim filings begin to show a decline? What is causing the Industry to continue to be surprised by what appear to be unending exposures. How will the recent talc-related asbestos verdicts affect the Industry?
The environmental loss estimate continues to be high. How have recent large lean-up site activity affect the Industry's reserve level? How will the current administration's EPA regulatory changes impact the future of environmental exposures?
This panel will provide an update on these never-ending exposures that continue to plague the Insurance Industry.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Christopher Gross
Panelists:
Sandra Santomenno, Rita Zona, Beverly Phillips, Rachel Dolsky
C-6: America First : Update of TCJA Impact on the Worldwide P&C Industry
To give treats is a powerful way to change dog behaviors. Are the treats from the Dec 22nd, 2017 Tax Cuts and Job Acts (TCJA) changing how the P&C Industry behaves?
The speakers will discuss the following:
* Overview of the TCJA
* Industry Changes and Opinions
* Base Erosion and anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT)
* Discounting, NOL and Life Impacts
* Role of Actuaries in light of Tax Reform.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
D. Lee Barclay
Panelists:
Leslie Marlo, Benoit Carrier, Lynne Bloom, John Peel
G-3: Brain Injuries/CTE Impact
There has been an increasing focus on the effects of repetitive head impacts on individuals later in life. One disease process thought to be caused by these repeated hits to the head is chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). By studying athletes, military veterans and other individuals with high exposure to repetitive head impacts, researchers have begun to understand the risk factors and exposures responsible for the development and progression of CTE.
While the exact incidence and prevalence of CTE remain unknown, there is increasing evidence that CTE affects amateur athletes as well as professional athletes and military veterans. The NFL currently has over 20,000 potential claimants and the pool of defendants is expanding into schools and other sports
groups.
This panel will explore what medical research knows about the long-term effects of repetitive head impacts, including risk factors and epidemiology of chronic traumatic encephalopathy. They will also define the target defendants, key theories of liability, potential defenses and recent rulings, as well as discuss the various coverage issues these claims present.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
D. Lee Barclay
Panelists:
Heather Schenker, William Primps
G-1: A Tale of 2 Analytics Tribes – Actuary vs. Data Scientist
In 2014 Chris Dixon Tweeted that "A data scientist is a statistician who lives in San Francisco." Dixon went on to say that a data scientist is someone who is better at statistics than any software engineer and better at software engineering than any statistician. So much for statisticians. How do actuaries compare to data scientists? Is insurance acumen the only difference? Which profession has the best prognosis for a thriving future? As actuaries develop broader and deeper predictive modeling and Big Data skills will more work in alternative careers outside mainstream insurance? Join our panel as they discuss the past, present and future of these two analytics tribes.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
William Von Seggern
Panelists:
Claudine Modlin, Stephen Mildenhall, Frank Palmer, Shane Barnes
C-16: Counterfactual Disaster Risk Analysis
The statistical foundation of disaster risk analysis is actual loss experience. The past cannot be changed and is treated by actuaries as fixed. But from a scientific perspective, history is just one realization of what might have happened, given the randomness and chaotic dynamics of nature. Stochastic analysis of the past is an exploratory exercise in counterfactual history, considering alternative possible scenarios. In particular, the dynamic perturbations that might transition a system to a disaster state are considered. The value of counterfactual disaster risk analysis is illustrated with examples from a diverse range of natural and man-made perils.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
William Von Seggern
Panelists:
Gordon Woo
ST-14: What iCAS is Up To: Introducing our New Credentials in Catastrophe Risk Management
At this session, leaders of The CAS Institute (iCAS) will provide a quick update on the Certified Specialist in Predictive Analytics (CSPA) credential and then jump into our new two-tier Cat Risk Management credentials being offered through iCAS, a subsidiary of the CAS.
This informative and interactive session will cover:
• What the Certified Specialist in Predictive Analytics (CSPA) credential is and how it will benefit your career.
• The five requirements for earning the credential.
• The knowledge, competencies and applications to business needs that have been incorporated into the credential's learning objectives, and how mastery will be assessed.
• The formation of a specialist practice community within iCAS for those interested in data science and predictive analytics.
• The outline of the soon to be offered two-tier Catastrophe Risk Management credentials.
• The relationship between iCAS and the International Society of Catastrophe Managers, which will be facilitating a specialist practice community for those interested in Catastrophe risk.
• Any questions you may have about The CAS Institute and any of its credential offerings.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Amy Brener, Stephen Stone
G-2: Private Flood Insurance
The market for flood insurance is changing. Historically, nearly all flood insurance in the United States was offered through the National Flood Insurance Program. Recently there was been rapid growth in interest in private flood insurance and in some states there is now an active private flood insurance market. What are the risks of entering this market or staying on the sidelines? What are the opportunities? This session will demonstrate how private companies can evaluate the feasibility of offering flood insurance and describe different methods of pricing flood insurance in the private market including their advantages and disadvantages.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
D. Lee Barclay
Panelists:
Matthew Chamberlain, James Watje, Mitchell Waldner
ST-13: Reserves Call Paper Program: DeepTriangle - A Deep Learning Approach to Loss Reserving
We propose a novel approach for loss reserving based on deep neural networks. The approach allows for jointly modeling of paid losses and claims outstanding, and incorporation of heterogenous inputs. We validate the models on loss reserving data across lines of business, and show that they attain or exceed the predictive accuracy of existing stochastic methods. The models require minimal feature engineering and expert input, and can be automated to produce forecasts at a high frequency.
Slides and code available at: https://kevinykuo.com/talk/2018/09/clrs/
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Nicholas Alicea
Panelists:
Kevin Kuo
C-34: University Actuarial Programs and the P&C Industry – CAS University Award Winners Share Insights and Best Practices
In June 2018, three universities were selected as recipients of the 2018 CAS University Award, an honor created to recognize schools doing exemplary work in preparing students for a career in the property and casualty insurance industry.
The schools honored include Arizona State University, and Renmin University of China,The University of Texas at Austin.
A representative from each university will discuss how they are incorporating property and casualty into their curriculum, research, industry engagement initiatives, and innovations.
Attendees will hear best practices on how companies can partner with universities and work together to prepare the next generation of property and casualty actuaries.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Jelena Milovanovic, Alisa Walch, Guangyuan Gao
C-5: Actuaries RMAD: Reviewing Disclosures in the Statement of Actuarial Opinion
We review the statements of actuarial opinion (SAOs) for the largest property and casualty insurers in the US and examine required disclosures that are tied to the risk of material adverse deviation (RMAD). This session gives actuaries an understanding of the required disclosures, the choice of materiality thresholds, and examines SAOs from the past 5 years. The aim of this study is to provide guidance specific factors that may be considered when selecting an RMAD threshold for a specific insurer.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
D. Lee Barclay
Panelists:
Greg Fears, Kevin Ahlgrim
C-35: US Regulatory Landscape for P&C Actuaries: Don't Roll the Dice
This session will focus on the P&C actuarial “hot topics” that are top of mind for US state regulators. These topics include:
• Big data/predictive modeling
• Recent enhancements to risk-focused examinations
• ORSA implementation
• Changes to ACA and impact on P&C coverages
• Qualification attestation (Note: Is there another session at the meeting devoted to this topic?)
• Statement of Actuarial Opinion (SAO) changes for year-end 2018 (brief)
• Climate Change (possible)
Understanding these regulatory developments will help actuaries and their employers interact most constructively with regulators.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Lisa Chanzit, Kevin Dyke, Mary Hosford, Gennady Stolyarov, Julie Lederer
C-8: Analytical Data Stores: Should I Really Use a Database?
Analysts have many choices for data storage besides databases, which often are selected for convenience or perceived benefits.
In our session, we will share information about the current state of databases and the new database types (NoSQL databases). After our session, participants will be able to choose the right database for his/her use cases and model traditional table data into a Document database.
After each micro-lesson, we will engage the audience with either:
1. Q&A via mobile app polling or Kahoot
2. 5-minute dialogue session with participants
Our choice will be made in session after determining the knowledge and experience of the participants.
After our micro-lesson on Document databases, we will engage the audience by having them model table data into document data.
Our handouts will be organized by topic (not reprint of slides) and include graphics, use cases for each database type, reference weblinks, and bios.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
D. Lee Barclay
Panelists:
Michael Thyen, Jeffrey White, Francis Gribbon
C-9B: Applications of Vehicle History in Auto Insurance Rating and Underwriting
To evaluate the risk associated with personal auto coverage, insurers have traditionally relied primarily on information about the driver, such as age, gender and marital status; location, such as territory or ZIP code; the intended use of the vehicle, such as business or pleasure; and information about the vehicle when new, such as original cost new. Insurers then added detail to driver information using sophisticated credit scoring and demographic models. They added detail to vehicle use information with telematics and usage-based insurance pricing. Now, insurers have begun to add detail about the vehicle itself using vehicle history.
This session will discuss how carriers use vehicle history to more accurately price and underwrite risks. We will discuss obvious data elements, such as salvage title brands, verified average annual mileage, and severe damage. We'll also discuss data that may not be as obvious but has proven predictive of loss in the past.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Matthew Moore, Don Hendriks
C-19: Examining Auto Insurance Loss Trends
In a project jointly sponsored by the CAS, PCI, and the SOA, we examine the state by state trends in auto insurance losses. We look both at the covariates which drive those losses and the temporal trends in those losses. This work culminated in a few reports available on the CAS website.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Marcela Granados
Panelists:
Brian Hartman, Elijah Harmon, Cason Wight, Trevor Johnson, Sarah Jane Hansen
C-33: UBI & Telematics Innovations
Section 1: UBI Technology & Driving Bureaus
- Overview of UBI technology landscape including OBD, apps, OEM, Bluetooth, odometer, and NFC.
- Driving bureaus for both personal and commercial auto.
Section 2: Applications and Analytics
- Commercial auto case study.
- Telematics applications beyond UBI.
- Refinements to top 4 UBI variables: speed, braking, time of day, and mileage.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Marcela Granados
Panelists:
Ryan Morrison, Chris Carver, Joseph Griffin
C-1: A Cost of Capital Risk Margin Formula for Non-Life Insurance Liabilities- A Historical Perspective
This paper has been awarded the Charles A. Hachemeister Prize for a paper published in the ASTIN Bulletin or presented at an ASTIN/AFIR Colloquium the previous year. As this paper was also presented at the 2017 CAS Annual Meeting, this session will differ from that presented last year. The session will discuss the paper from a historical perspective. The session will start by describing a presentation given by the CAS Committee on the Theory or Risk in 1984. It will continue through the CAPM debates in the early 1990’s, then to DFA/ERM in the early 2000’s and get us to the risk margins required by IRFS 17. The cost of capital risk margin formula presented in this paper will make use of a Bayesian MCMC loss reserve model.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Marcela Granados
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers
PD-7: Business Skills and our ASOPs
Effective business skills are essential for a successful actuarial career but may also be required for maintaining our professional standards. This panel will discuss how the changing business environment, electronic communications and social media is requiring actuaries to enhance their business skills and their awareness on how failing to adhere to best practices may result in a violation of the ASOPs. A speaker from the AAA will highlight some of the business skills and ASOPs that actuaries should consider in their everyday work. Other panelists will present business situations that may violate our ASOPs. The audience will be asked to share their perspective on the situation and offer recommendations on best practices to avoid these situations.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jonathan Sappington
Panelists:
Lynne Bloom, Matthew Shockley, Mark Littmann, Chad Wischmeyer
AR-13: Improving Actuarial Reserve Analysis Through Predictive Analytics
Actuaries are replacing the chain ladder framework with advanced modeling techniques. Generalized linear modeling (GLM) employing aggregate data expands beyond the chain-ladder framework by modeling also trends in the development, accident and calendar year dimensions. The session will describe the GLM modeling framework and walk the audience through a simple example.
The second part of the session will focus on GLM employing claim level detail data. The introduction of additional variables beyond “year” and “lag” enable us to identify patterns and trends that otherwise would be hidden in aggregate data. Examples of various predictors that are employed in claim level detail modeling will be provided. Various individual claim level models, including the Incremental Paid method, the Taylor McGuire method, the Open claim method and the Frequency/Severity method will be presented. Advantages and associated challenges for each of these models will be also discussed.
Additionally, there is much to be gained by analyzing claims experience with analytics. Advances in predictive modeling are allowing companies to detect patterns in data which were not able to be detected in the past. In this session, the presenters will illustrate some of the approaches and the benefits of using predictive modeling techniques in actuarial reserving.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Stephen Stone, Paul Bailey, Manolis Bardis
C-36: Viva Las Vegas, Actuarial Style
The quantitative analysis of casino gaming odds and strategies shares many common roots with actuarial science, so what better place to bring the two disciplines together than Las Vegas? The session will include a beginner's guide to rules and basic strategies for some of the most popular casino games. Along the way the speakers will be highlighting the insurance parallels by discussing topics such as risk selection, the house edge, and competitive advantage. This session aims to improve your odds of success, both at the tables and in your business!
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
D. Lee Barclay
Panelists:
Matthew Buchalter, Julie Walker, Alexander Alimi
C-32: The Newest P&C ASOP - Estimating Future Costs
The Actuarial Standards Board recently adopted a Actuarial Standard of Practice (ASOP) #53 entitled “Estimating Future Costs for Prospective Property/Casualty Risk Transfer and Risk Funding”.
This ASOP covers the traditional actuarial efforts in estimating the future costs for prospective property/casualty risk transfer and does not include the preparation of rate filings and issues related to the interactions between ratemaking, pricing decisions and rate regulation.
The panelists will cover the key components of the newest ASOP. The areas covered in the ASOP include all of the items currently listed in the Considerations Section of the Statement of Principles Regarding Property-Casualty Insurance Ratemaking adopted by the Casualty Actuarial Society in 1988.
Source:
2018 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Christopher Gross
Panelists:
Patrick Woods, Christopher Carlson
ST-12: Reserves Call Paper Program: Enhancements to the “Shane-Morelli” Approach to Provide Technical Guidance in Implementation, and Proposed Solutions for Challenges Encountered in Application
Authors will present their paper from the 2018 Reserves Call Paper Program.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Dawn Fowle, Shon Yim, Dolph Zielinski
