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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
ST-8: Claims Analytics' Impact on Reserving in 2023
It’s been five years since a claims analytics model was implemented. How does this impact reserving practices? What challenges will you face next? How will your the claims adjusters skill set needs change over time? Will your model need to change over time? How might changes in privacy regulations change claim analytics? Will a claimant’s health data become an input for property-casualty claim analytics?
We will have a panel to discuss these questions and more.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Philip Borba, Abby Sternberg, Jinjie Duan, Thomas Veale
C-8-R: Latest Developments in US Flood Modeling, Rating, and Reinsurance
Last year’s Hurricane Harvey was almost entirely a precipitation event that had not been included in US flood models until recently, so this session will feature recent releases of US inland flood models that include hurricane precipitation modeling. The session will also feature ongoing NFIP initiatives that cover modeling, rating redesign, and the NFIP reinsurance program with implications for private market participation in the US residential flood market.
Source:
2018 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Stanislav Eratt
Panelists:
Guy Morrow, David Smith, Mitchell Waldner, John Kulik
C-24-R: Workers Compensation - Emerging Issues
This session will be an interactive discussion of various workers' compensation emerging issues and their potential impact on the workers' compensation system, including coverage, claims and premium. The emerging issues will include opioids, shared economy, marijuana and wearable technology.
Source:
2018 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Stanislav Eratt
Panelists:
Kevin Bingham, Sean Cooper, Patrick O'Dell, Kristen Tripp
C-20-R: The Evolution of Reinsurance Pricing in a Disrupted Environment (Livestream)
The entire insurance value chain is being disrupted by a combination of insurtech startups, digital, telematics, connected home, connected worker, connected everything, data science, unstructured data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. Based on their position at the top of the value chain, reinsurers actually have natural advantages for thriving in such an environment. To capitalize on these opportunities, however, reinsurance actuaries and underwriters will need to adapt their skills and mindset to the new realities. This session will discuss these adaptations from complementary outside and inside perspectives.
Source:
2018 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Stanislav Eratt
Panelists:
Donald Mango, Robert Weireter
C-19-R: Tax Reform and the Insurance/Reinsurance Industry
The current federal government administration has instituted tax reform. The tax reform act has a great impact on the reinsurance business. It affects both inter-company deals, as well as, where companies will operate its reinsurance business and hire its employers.
Source:
2018 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Bill Wilt
Panelists:
Scott Williamson, Paul Phillips
A-1-R: Advanced Track – Battlebots: Extreme Actuarial Pricing Challenge
Oh no! The pricing differential on my treaty across my reinsurers is HUGE! We all know that actuarial pricing for a reinsurance treaty is an imperfect science. We have limited data; Loss development is further delayed by the retentions; Historical and future portfolio shifts can change the answer; Accounting for the softer items is important but difficult to incorporate. And the list goes on.
Three actuaries from three different companies will be given the exact same underwriting submission and reinsurance structure. Our brave actuaries will battle it out and put reinsurance pricing to the test on a working Multi-Line layer.
What’s their loss pick? How different are the picks? What drove their selections? We will review how they got to their answers and compare / contrast the differences.
Source:
2018 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Ahmad Shadman
Panelists:
Sean Devlin, Stephanie Rabin, Christopher Swan, Lesley Bosniack
LOB-12: Using Unstructured Data to Better Manage Defense Costs
Defense costs have increased substantially over the past decade for many lines of business and many companies. In this session, we will discuss a new approach to better understand and manage these costs by unlocking the intelligence that is hidden inside attorney invoices. By extracting the information and properly converting it to structured data, companies are able to better evaluate their roster of defense firms and develop effective cost management and claims defense strategies. Included in this session will be commentary from a Senior Vice President of Claims from a large medical professional liability company on how his company was able to realize significant savings.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Chad Karls, Tim Smith
W-1: Intermediate R
This workshop is intended for individuals that already have a basic familiarity with R. These individuals should already have conducted several data analyses in R. The Workshop Syllabus will include some or all of the following:
• Anonymous functions with *apply or purr::map functions.
• Using the ChainLadder package
• Package development using the roxygen2 package.
• Data access and data munging.
• Reporting via RMarkdown
The workshop will conclude with a case study.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Louise Francis, Rajesh Sahasrabuddhe, Steven Berman
RM-6: Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017: Impact on Captives Insurers
Through reductions in tax rates, The Tax Cut and Jobs Acts of 2017 is generally thought of as being beneficial by the general business community. Many in the captive community have felt as though the insurance industry was singled out and the changes may have many negative consequences. Our panel will discuss the changes affecting the industry, what to expect and if indeed the industry's concerns are valid. We will review the changes in tax rates and interest rates used to discount losses resulting from the Tax Cut and Jobs Acts of 2017 and their impact on a case study single-parent captive insurance company taxed as a property and casualty insurer. In addition, the panel will discuss how the size of the captive, as well as its mix of business can influence the impact of the changes in tax law.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
A. Carver Roya
Panelists:
Arlene Richardson, Daniel Kusaila
LOB-11: Healthcare Reserving
Are you a reserving expert who is looking for a new challenge? Have you ever wondered why Healthcare is under the SOA umbrella in the United States but is considered General Insurance elsewhere? Is Health Insurance like Pension or Life Insurance which revolve around life contingencies? Or is health insurance more like a property damage or warranty policy for the human body?
Though the last comparison drastically oversimplifies the complexity and importance of our healthcare system, from a reserving perspective, there are a lot more similarities than there are differences between healthcare and property-casualty lines of business.
The session will start with a discussion of the similarities and some of the important distinctions that create unique challenges in health reserving. The goal will be to have an interesting discussion of these challenges and possible solutions. Please come prepared not only to ask questions, but to brainstorm solutions and contribute your own expertise to the discussion.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Kevin Donnelly
LOB-10: Mortgage Insurance Refresher: Loss Reserving and Other Goings On
This unique session will touch on three subtopics all centered on mortgage default risk. First, the session will cover the nuances of loss reserving for mortgage guaranty insurance. Second attendees will learn about the Government Sponsored Enterprises’ Credit Risk Transfer securities, first issued in 2013, which transfer a substantial portion of mortgage credit risk to the private sector to reduce risk to taxpayers. Third, there will be an overview of FASB’s new Current Expected Credit Loss Model, effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2019. FASB’s new model will improve financial reporting by requiring timelier recording of credit losses on loans and other financial instruments held by financial institutions and other organizations.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
A. Carver Roya
Panelists:
Kyle Mrotek, Benjamin Walker
AR-12: Triangles Reimagined
Well estimated loss development is critical to what we do as actuaries for reserving, pricing, ERM, and reinsurance. The problems with development triangles are well known, including changes in mix and changes in case reserve adequacy. There is considerable and growing interest in triangle-free approaches to reserving, but triangles still fill a valuable role, because they are easy to explain and understand. This presentation will describe a new approach to generating the very triangles themselves, through the use of “actuarial” case reserves that attempt to achieve a greater level of consistency than the actual booked case reserves. Whether they arise from a more detailed claim life cycle model, or a more basic predictive model of case reserves, these actuarial case reserves can help improve estimates, within the triangle framework that is well understood and accepted. Other triangles such as one based on policy emergence reserves will be discussed as well.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Christopher Gross
RM-5: Making Commutations Successful
The landscape regarding commutation of a reinsurance contract is changing. Third-party involvement, while not new, continues to become more prevalent due to increased portfolio transfers of cedent’s prior year portfolios. The addition of another party makes the commutation more challenging. To address this challenge, a close partnership among the ceding company, third-party and the reinsurer is essential to reaching a successful conclusion. This session will describe the challenges and how actuaries and commutation leaders from all parties work together to develop, propose and finalize commutations successfully.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
A. Carver Roya
Panelists:
Barbara Murray, Christopher Claus, Joseph Wallen, Steven Herman, Joseph Loggia
PD-2: ASOPs: New and Improved
The more things change, the more they change. As a professional body, we casualty actuaries are always looking to improve ourselves and to hold ourselves to higher and ever evolving Actuarial Standards of Practice. It’s important that we operate within acceptable guidelines, hence the promulgation of the ASOPs.
In this session you will have the opportunity to discuss various ASOPs, particularly those related to reserving. We will also be looking at some of the recent changes that have been made to the ASOPs and the purpose and status of proposed ASOPs. We will revisit the standard regarding Expert Testimony by Actuaries. In addition, we will include discussion on proposed standards for Capital Adequacy, Modelling, and Setting Assumptions. Finally, we will open the floor to discuss any questions you might have on any of the other ASOPs.
You can never know your Standards too well. This session should help you know them a little better.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
A. Carver Roya
Panelists:
Joshua Merck, Arthur Randolph, Christopher Holt
PD-1: Actuarial Humor: Oxymoron or Presentation Survival Technique - Making Your Presentations More Interesting
The session will provide some ideas for integrating a little humor into actuarial presentations to keep your audience alive! The session will also address the issue of translating actuarial jargon into meaningful concepts that all levels of audiences can grasp.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Michael Harrington, Nina Gau
ST-7: Phones, Drones and Disaster Zones
People who lose everything in a flood or a wildfire have their worlds turned upside down. If you haven’t experienced it, you can only imagine what it’s like to suddenly become homeless, unsure of where your next meal will come from or worried about whether friends and relatives are safe.
It’s important for insurers to quickly settle the claims for those who’ve been devastated. Getting a claim settled not only gets folks started on the road to recovery, but it can provide much-needed financial help as they scramble for living accommodations, transportation, meals, kids’ needs and more.
The good news is that insurers are using technology to speed the process of paying homeowners who are hit hard by destructive events like Hurricane Harvey and the California wildfires. Using a combination of drones and small aircraft to conduct aerial imaging surveys and analyzing the resulting imagery with machine learning and cloud analytics, insurers are able to assess damage and pay out compensation in hard-hit areas faster than ever.
Join us to learn more about this exciting technology, its impact on the claims process and how actuaries can appropriately leverage the results downstream.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Michael Nielsen, Jay Mullen
RM-4: Workers' Compensation Claim Closure Project — A Case Study
How many failed underwriting plans, marketing schemes, and claim closure projects must you be asked to "support" in your career before you give up altogether on them? Before you become too jaded you may want to learn more about a California workers' compensation claim closure project that is working as promised. A similar project may work for a self-insured in another state or a book of business across states for an insurance carrier. But one thing is clear: In the State of California, a properly thought out claim closure project can offer an enormous return on investment.
In this session a panel of actuaries, claims manager, and risk manager will draw the landscape for why California workers' compensation is fertile ground for a claim closure project, explain the investment of resources and effort required to launch and maintain the effort, demonstrate how results early on in the project are manifested in actuarial data (NOT good), and provide some parameters around how long one should expect to wait before seeing favorable results emerge in your reserve study.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
A. Carver Roya
Panelists:
Martin King, Beth Dupre, Ryan Purcell, Esther Becker
AR-11: Introducing the Individual-Claim Level Reserving Simulator 2.0
The Committee on Dynamic Risk Modeling, a CAS R&D committee, has engaged with ReservePrism, LLC to develop an individual-claim level simulator that is specifically designed for reserve analysis. The simulator is an open-source platform built with a new R package and an EXCEL API. It can develop distribution and copula assumptions from experience data and simulate open claim development, claim reopenings, IBNR and UPR (future claims) at the individual claim level. This session will introduce the methodology and process including claim data analysis, fitting, simulation and reporting. The new simulator will be demonstrated to help the audience understand how it can help their reserving work and how to use the simulator.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jing Liu
Panelists:
Hai You, Fernando Alvarado, Kailan Shang
AR-10: Looking through the Rear-View Mirror: Back-Testing Loss Reserve Methods
This session will outline an R package, reservetestr, that provides functionality to back-test loss reserve methods against the CAS loss reserve database (https://www.casact.org/research/index.cfm?fa=loss_reserves_data). Back-testing results will be shown for several traditional and advanced stochastic loss reserve methods.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jing Liu
Panelists:
Adam Troyer
AR-9: Frequency-Severity Stochastic Approach to Loss Development; Developing Individual Claims
Session Part 1 – Taming the Wild Burning Cost: Probability Distribution Development of Individual Claims for Unbiased Excess Reserving: The ultimate cost of an unpaid individual claim follows a probability distribution, and usually will not be the exact point resulting from use of a loss development factor. So, when actuaries apply loss development factors to individual claims, they often create biased estimates of excess loss costs. Methods for creating a loss development probability distribution are developed. It is shown that the results of those methods are unbiased not only in terms of developing losses overall, but also projecting the ultimate costs in any layer. Methods to adjust the probability distribution for other development maturities and different claim handling are provided.
Session Part 2 – Best Estimate Credibility for Link Ratios: Many reserving situations require supplementing a company’s or an insured’s own reserving data. This process uses the general credibility formula from “Credibility Based on Accuracy” to develop best estimate credibilities for the link ratios. It works with logarithms of the link ratios, producing a best geometric (power) credibility average.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Joseph Boor
ST-5: Intermediate Reserving Bootcamp: Part 1
This double concurrent session will expand on the basic methods used to determine ultimate losses looking at non-traditional / advanced methods beyond chain ladder.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Jane Taylor, D. Scott Lamb, Brian Clancy, Andrew Somers, Karin Rhoads
W-2: Triangles Reimagined
Creating alternative case reserves, based on predictive modeling from objective claim characteristics, in order to restate the case-incurred triangle (think Berquist-Sherman, but with a scalpel instead of a chainsaw). Also, the idea of creating a whole new type of detailed reserve: a policy IBNR reserve that reflects anticipated emergence. This policy level reserve, together with paid amounts and alternative case reserves would form the basis for a new triangle, one with considerably little if any development, but based on detailed data leading to the reserve. The advantage of the approach is to avoid issues with changing case reserve adequacy and changes in mix.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Christopher Gross, Bret Shroyer
LOB-9: Adjusting the Workers Compensation Paid Loss Development Method to Consider Effects of Lump sum Settlements
The paid loss development factor method is one of the most widely used actuarial methods. In the event that a company chooses to settle a claim with a lump sum settlement, the paid loss development method first over projects the ultimate losses for that accident year and for all subsequent accident years. Over time, the accident year with the settlement moves back towards the pre-settlement ultimate loss and ultimately ends up below the pre-settlement ultimate loss. The subsequent accident years will begin overstated but as future link ratios come in lower, these years will change to being understated. the Workers Compensation Settlement Adjustment corrects for these biases bringing additional accuracy to the reserve review.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Benjamin Witkowski
AR-8: The Shape of Uncertainty
This session will explore how the distributions that are generated by stochastic reserve uncertainty approaches are influenced by a range of factors. We will look at how distribution characteristics may be influenced by considerations such as: the line of business analyzed; how LoBs are consolidated; the volume of data used; the type of model upon which the analysis is based, etc. The session will focus on demonstrating this impact using real-world data and practical applications.
In addition, we will describe a new tail risk metric (Coefficient of Risk) applies to reserve volatility models, and what it shows about the relative fatness of Tails for different reserve volatility models and different lines of business at different companies. We will also show how the fatness of Tails for reserve volatility models compares to underwriting risk models.
By the of the session, users will know how to:
• Use their knowledge of the business written to assess an uncertainty model for reasonableness
• Identify key assumptions and selections in their reserve uncertainty models
• Qualify and select a model that is suitable for their application
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jing Liu
Panelists:
David Ingram, James Mackay
AR-7: Convolution in Reserving with a Focus on the Bornheutter-Ferguson Method
This session will re-imagine the Bornheutter-Ferguson (BF) method as a flexible process by recognizing that the BF formula is a convolution equation. Specific topics will include the additivity of error distributions, changing basis to isolate inflation, and modeling insurance cycles. Examples will be illustrated in triangles rather than by formulas. The presenter will show how to manipulate triangles to get results.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
James Ely
