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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
C-21: The Reinsurance Industry: An Equity Analyst View
The reinsurance industry continues to evolve in how its capital is financed. Capital from a variety of sources now support the operation of reinsurance companies, including Wall Street, hedge funds, and private equity. How financial analysts outside the actuarial community view the industry is critically important to understand.
During this session, key questions will be considered by our panel of analysts:
•What metrics do they use to analyze results?
•What key performance levels are analysts and investors looking for?
•Where do these analysts and their clients see the industry headed?
•What will be the impact of recent catastrophes that have hit the industry?
•Are they forecasting a hard market or continued softening?
•And maybe most importantly, is the short-term focus for which Wall Street is famous, compatible with an industry that requires a long-term perspective?
Source:
2018 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Bill Wilt
Panelists:
William Wilt, Meyer Shields, James Naklicki
C-15: Rating Agency Update: A Reinsurance Focus
This session will provide an update from the major rating agencies regarding the US P&C Industry and Global Reinsurance Market. The reinsurance sector has faced major challenges and changes this past year including major catastrophe activity, M&A, and regulatory changes. This session will include views on their sector outlooks, changes to their rating criteria, and updates to their capital adequacy models. Also, we will cover how a company’s reinsurance program is considered in the rating evaluation process.
Source:
2018 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Bill Wilt
Panelists:
Steven Chirico, Hardeep Manku, Stanislas Rouyer
LOB-8: Construction Defects: Learning from A Deep Dive
Insurance companies are continuously trying to get a better understanding of their construction defect exposure and losses. In this session two companies will talk about lessons learned in performing a Deep Dive on their construction defect losses. Our first speaker will address some of the challenges faced when looking at data and data segmentation including geography, residential vs commercial, practice vs wraps, primary vs excess, etc. Our second speaker will talk about using advanced techniques common in other CLRS sessions to overcome CD reserving problems. For example, using text mining to increase data availability (identifying AI claims or residential claims) or developing a claim level model to assist in determining IBNER.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Ronald Kozlowski, Emily Allen
ST-4: Technology and Disruption: Leveraging Innovation to Enhance Productivity
Many jobs across the economy are quickly becoming disrupted as a result of advanced technologies like cognitive automation and artificial intelligence. Are actuaries next? Using a process called Pixelation, this session will explore the many tasks that actuaries perform and what parts of our roles could be disrupted or replaced. At the same time, we will discuss how this disruption can have a positive impact on the actuarial role and how we can leverage these technologies to provide even more value to our constituents.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Bruce Fell, Stefan Peterson
ST-3: Tracing a 3rd Party Liability Claim — Applying Analytics to Improve Claims Risk Management
The “80/20” rule is commonly applied to third party liability claims: namely, that 80 percent of the cost comes from 20 percent of the claims. What if you could consistently predict whether a claim would fall in that costliest 20 percent so you could handle it in a way that mitigates the risk?
The session will provide a view on using analytics and predictive modeling to enhance the claims handling process for 3rd party liability claims. First, the session will discuss the design considerations for a 3rd party liability claims modeling solution. Second, there will be a review of how the model results can be effectively implemented into the day-to-day claims handling process to drive organizational value.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rajesh Sahasrabuddhe
Panelists:
Cheng-Sheng Wu, Matthew Carrier
AR-6: Mack and ODP Bootstrap - Part 2
The Mack and ODP Bootstrap models are commonly used in the industry to estimate a distribution of unpaid claims, but if you are not confident in your ability to use these models in practice these training sessions are for you. During these back-to-back sessions, the instructors will walk you through the theory underlying each model and challenge you to master the calculations. By doing the hands on exercises you will gain confidence in your mastery of these models. Due to the nature of the training, the attendance will be strictly limited to the first 40 people to sign up, each participant will be expected to bring their own laptop, and the instructors will distribute files to be used during the training just prior to the CLRS.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Mark Shapland, Michael Henk
LOB-7: Recent Industry Trends in Reserving
The session will cover:
-Assessment of reserve runoff by major line of business, with historical trends and cycles
-Loss ratio trends by major line of business, including current and development over time - interplay of such trends with sector pricing
-Discussion of the key factors driving unfavorable or favorable development in major lines - work comp, commercial auto, general liability, financial lines, etc.
-Brief history, analysis and findings from the new US GAAP short duration disclosures
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Timothy Landick, Matthew Shockley, Dorothy Woodrum
AR-5: Mack and ODP Bootstrap - Part 1
The Mack and ODP Bootstrap models are commonly used in the industry to estimate a distribution of unpaid claims, but if you are not confident in your ability to use these models in practice these training sessions are for you. During these back-to-back sessions, the instructors will walk you through the theory underlying each model and challenge you to master the calculations. By doing the hands on exercises you will gain confidence in your mastery of these models. Due to the nature of the training, the attendance will be strictly limited to the first 40 people to sign up, each participant will be expected to bring their own laptop, and the instructors will distribute files to be used during the training just prior to the CLRS.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Mark Shapland, Michael Henk
GS-1: A Taxing Challenge for the Global (Re)Insurance Industry
The new US Tax and Jobs Act could potentially reshape the global (re)insurance marketplace. The speakers will outline the key provisions of the Act and explores the potential impacts for (re)insurers on earnings and the balance sheet, as well as investment and capital management strategies. Speakers from two insurers will share their experiences and the actions they have taken in response to the Act. This includes describing how the Act impacted the company’s expected return, required return, and available capital and required a partnership among actuarial, investments, ERM, and controllership to determine the course moving forward.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Rajesh Sahasrabuddhe
Panelists:
A. Cummings, Terri Dalenta, Christina Gwilliam
AR-4: A Quantum Leap in Benchmarking Unpaid Claims
Unpaid claim distributions are a critical component of many different risk management applications. Prior research has suggested that commonly used models tend to underestimate the breadth of the distribution of possible outcomes so benchmarks to help gauge the quality of the distribution are needed. Extensive research based on over 30,000 triangles of industry data over a 10 year span has provided new insights into benchmarking all models, including deterministic ranges and correlation. These insights have important implications for all uses of reserve variability modeling, including capital modeling and enterprise risk management that will be illustrated by comparing actual results from common methods and models with new benchmarks derived from the research.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Mark Shapland
FS-2: The Actuarial Value – A Risk Manager’s Point of View
The Walt Disney Company’s Director of Risk Management, Tim East will provide an insight on his approach to Risk Management and his work with actuaries in the insurance industry. An actuarial analysis can and should deliver more than just projections and a loss pick; the process should be an opportunity for actuarial professionals, risk managers and the end-user’s management team to work together and add value to the organization’s success. To achieve this, all parties must seek to go beyond the analysis alone to understand each other’s business, the sources of valuable information and the underlying drivers of the trends – to add real value to each other’s success.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Featured Speaker
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Anthony Bustillo, Tim East
AR-3: Reserve Ranges - Expected Outcomes, Possible Outcomes and the Application of Bayesian Reserve Estimation Models
Many of the models commonly used to assess reserve variability are best characterized as producing an indication of variability in future loss development by extrapolating the variability observed in the historical data triangles. While such models can provide useful insight, they generally do not provide for the impact of any risks that are not included in the historical data, and they are unlikely to capture the full potential for variability in actual outcomes. It is also unclear how (or whether) these models can be used as support for a range of reasonable actuarial central estimates. A well-designed Bayesian reserve estimation model has the potential to address both of these concerns if the model is based on parameters that align with the expert knowledge actuaries bring to the table (such as expected loss ratios, loss development patterns, trend rates, etc.). The prior distributions for these parameters provide an opportunity to build in provisions for systemic risks, and the posterior distributions could be useful in selecting ranges of reasonable estimates. We will use a sample model to illustrate how this can work in practice.
The session will combine the concepts outlined above with a discussion on the range of expected outcomes, the range of possible outcomes and incorporating into the range of expected outcomes events that may not be in the historical data set. The discussion should help the actuary capture a reasonable expectation from risks that are not included in historical data.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Paul Struzzieri, Matthew Killough
AR-2: Improving MLE and GLM: New Statistical Methods
MLE provides the minimum variance unbiased estimator for a model given a data set, but there are lower variance estimates if you drop the unbiased requirement. These are much like credibility where the individual means are shrunk towards the overall mean, giving greater predictive accuracy overall. These methods carry the barely informative name “regularization.” This session will discuss frequentist and Bayesian versions and show how to apply them to triangle models. The distributional restrictions of GLM are not required, and this allows for greater modeling flexibility. Examples and code will be included.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Gary Venter
C-8: Latest Developments in US Flood Modeling, Rating, and Reinsurance (Livestream)
Last year’s Hurricane Harvey was almost entirely a precipitation event that had not been included in US flood models until recently, so this session will feature recent releases of US inland flood models that include hurricane precipitation modeling. The session will also feature ongoing NFIP initiatives that cover modeling, rating redesign, and the NFIP reinsurance program with implications for private market participation in the US residential flood market.
Source:
2018 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Stanislav Eratt
Panelists:
Guy Morrow, David Smith, Mitchell Waldner, John Kulik
LOB-6: Setting Reserves for Cyber Lines: Traditional Actuarial Method vs. Accumulation Risk Quantification
Traditional actuarial reserving methods for cyber liability. Current challenges of applying traditional methods to cyber (thin loss experience, first-party losses, systemic cat, implicit cyber). Alternative approach to setting reserves on a company's holistic cyber exposure.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Michael Solomon, Daniel Bar-Yaacov
RM-3: Run-Off as a Business
This session will discuss the growth in the insurance liability runoff space as more companies are moving into this niche business. The panelists will discuss why companies are moving into this area and will discuss restructuring options, including the RI Insurance Business Transfer (IBT) legislation and the recently passed OK IBT legislation that will make it easier for companies looking to create runoff solutions for books of business that are lingering on their balance sheets.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rajesh Sahasrabuddhe
Panelists:
Barbara Murray, James Votta, Luann Petrellis, William Barbagallo
RM-2: Hot Topics in the Captive World
Explore what’s hot in the captive insurance world! This session will discuss the current hot topics that to keep in mind if you’re thinking of forming a new captive, have one already in existence, or are in closure. This includes a focus on recent tax court cases, domiciles explosion, actuarial guidelines, advanced captive program placements, capital issues, BEAT and BEPS, etc. etc. Critical to the session is an interactive and open discussion on how changes in the captive landscape is affecting insureds, managers, actuaries, providers, brokers, and others in the marketplace.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rajesh Sahasrabuddhe
Panelists:
Jim Bulkowski, John Ferrara, Kathryn Christensen
RM-1: Ceded Reserving: It is Not as Simple as Subtraction
This session will be a discussion of the pros and cons of various approaches to estimating ceded loss reserves. We will cover various data organization approaches as well as various actuarial techniques and what potential shortfalls may come from utilizing these methods. Finally, this session will help you tackle some of the more "difficult-to-quantify" loss sensitive features of reinsurance including aggregate deductibles.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
R. Scott Cederburg
Panelists:
Bruce Fell, Jeffrey Casaday
FR-2: IFRS 17 for Insurance Contracts
This session will provide an overview of the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 17 – Insurance Contracts, effective for IFRS reporting beginning in 2021. The issues discussed will include the basics of the general model and the premium allocation approach (PPA) (along with a comparison of these to US GAAP), a deeper look at discounting, risk adjustments, investment components and other common features. Additional discussion with highlight some of the challenges anticipated.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rajesh Sahasrabuddhe
Panelists:
Ralph Blanchard, G. Nyce, Marc Oberholtzer
FR-1: Company Specific Risk Factors for SAO Users
This session will explore the company-specific risk factor disclosures in the Statement of Actuarial Opinion (SAO). The disclosures in the SAO may only take up a paragraph or two, but they have an important influence on multiple parties. They’re used by various stakeholders, including company management, members of the board, and regulators. They guide regulatory analysis procedures, may be reviewed by third-party consulting actuaries during regulatory financial exams, and play a role in the company’s enterprise risk management. The session’s panelists include a consulting actuary, an opining actuary for a single-state multi-line insurer, and a state regulator, so a variety of perspectives will be presented. The audience will be asked to share their experiences (and challenges) in writing and reviewing the risk factor disclosures in the SAO.
Source:
2018 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rajesh Sahasrabuddhe
Panelists:
Erich Brandt, Gregory Fears, Julie Lederer, Matthew Moran
C-3: Bridging Insurtech and Reinsurance (Livestream)
What is “Insurtech” and what does it mean to the variety of players in the market looking to get involved? Hear the perspective from investors, reinsurers, and the CEO of an insurtech. They will speak to the challenges on both sides of the equation and their experiences in this evolving and dynamic marketplace.
Source:
2018 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
James Ramenda
Panelists:
Kara Owens, Andrew Lerner, Sean Harper, Vikas Singhal
C-20: The Evolution of Reinsurance Pricing in a Disrupted Environment
The entire insurance value chain is being disrupted by a combination of insurtech startups, digital, telematics, connected home, connected worker, connected everything, data science, unstructured data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. Based on their position at the top of the value chain, reinsurers actually have natural advantages for thriving in such an environment. To capitalize on these opportunities, however, reinsurance actuaries and underwriters will need to adapt their skills and mindset to the new realities. This session will discuss these adaptations from complementary outside and inside perspectives.
Source:
2018 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Stanislav Eratt
Panelists:
Donald Mango, Robert Weireter
Workers' Compensation Claim Closure Project - A Case Study
How many failed underwriting plans, marketing schemes, and claim closure projects must you be asked to "support" in your career before you give up altogether on them? Before you become too jaded you may want to learn more about a California workers' compensation claim closure project that is working as promised. A similar project may work for a self-insured in another state or a book of business across states for an insurance carrier. But one thing is clear: In the State of California, a properly thought out claim closure project can offer an enormous return on investment.
In this session a panel of actuaries, claims manager, and risk manager will draw the landscape for why California workers' compensation is fertile ground for a claim closure project, explain the investment of resources and effort required to launch and maintain the effort, demonstrate how results early on in the project are manifested in actuarial data (NOT good), and provide some parameters around how long one should expect to wait before seeing favorable results emerge in your reserve study.
Source:
2018 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Peter Tomopoulos
Panelists:
Martin King, Beth Dupre, Ryan Purcell, Esther Becker
C-7-R: Lights! Camera! Professionalism!
Come enjoy the acting of some fine fellow actuaries who will take on several skits involving professional dilemmas. These new skits for 2018 will lead to some lively and educational audience discussions. You will walk away from this session with a better understanding of the ASOPs, codes of conduct and how to apply them when you face your own professional ethical dilemmas.
This session may provide attendees with Professionalism Continuing Education credits.
Source:
2018 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Stanislav Eratt
Panelists:
George Levine, Zilan Shen, Daniel Jaeger
C-7: Lights! Camera! Professionalism!
Come enjoy the acting of some fine fellow actuaries who will take on several skits involving professional dilemmas. These new skits for 2018 will lead to some lively and educational audience discussions. You will walk away from this session with a better understanding of the ASOPs, codes of conduct and how to apply them when you face your own professional ethical dilemmas.
This session may provide attendees with Professionalism Continuing Education credits.
Source:
2018 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Stanislav Eratt
Panelists:
George Levine, Zilan Shen, Daniel Jaeger
