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Session 4C: Model Governance: What Could Possibly Go Wrong? (Part I)

Participants in this session will work through a hypothetical insurance company 'case study' and interactive role-play activities to gain a better understanding of the importance of model risk governance. This presentation will be split into two separate sessions. Part one will focus on what could go wrong in the absence of sound model risk governance practices and introduce a model risk management framework for insurers. Part two will focus on model validation techniques and tailored approaches for insurers. Participants are welcome to join either or both sessions. Attendance will be limited to facilitate discussion.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Dwayne Allen Husbands, FSA, MAAA
Panelists: James Russell Collingwood, ASA, MAAA; David Paul, FCAS, MAAA; Chad R. Runchey, FSA, MAAA

Session 4B: Systemic Risk

This session will review the current status of systemic risk as it applies to financial institutions. It builds off a white paper developed for the SOA that peer reviews existing literature and how the insurance industry fits into the current definition. Suggestions will be made to improve industry risk and the role of the National Organization of Life and Health Guaranty Associations (NOLHGA) in that process.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Max J. Rudolph, FSA, CERA, MAAA
Panelists: Christopher David Bohn, ASA, CERA, FCAS, MAAA; Max J. Rudolph, FSA, CERA, MAAA

Session 4A: Operationalizing Third Party Risk Management

Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Randi Woods Webber, FSA, CERA, MAAA
Panelists: Dana N. Hunt, FSA, MAAA; Charlie Miller; Randi Woods Webber, FSA, CERA, MAAA

Session 3C: First Line, Second Line, Third Line? Whose Line is it Anyway?

Whose line it is anyway? Should the second line do any work? This session will discuss governance issues and how to demonstrate the business value brought by the second line beyond oversight while still respecting the three lines of defense model.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Matthew John Stahl, ASA, CERA, MAAA

Session 3B: Stress Testing: From Macro-environment, to Scenario to Impacts and Decision

Baseline and stressed projections of financial statements, capital position, and cash flows are critical inputs to a wide range of business purposes: financial planning and analysis; risk appetite measurement; capital and liquidity management; pro-forma analysis of management actions; and regulatory reporting. The first half of this session will focus on converting current and potential macro-economic environments, including market and non-market risk factors, into inner and outer loop risk scenarios for stress testing. The second half of the session will focus on making stress testing an efficient/repeatable process that encompasses a multitude of business uses and functional areas. We will discuss the opportunities, challenges, and key decisions of a financial planning and stress testing transformation.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Dariush A. Akhtari, FSA, MAAA, FCIA
Panelists: Ricky Power; David Wicklund, FSA

Session 3A: Value Creation through ERM

This session will demonstrate tools and techniques to ensure the enterprise risk management adds value, with both qualitative and quantitative risk measures as well as communication of the results to the board of directors and senior management. From primarily defensive to increasingly offensive and strategic in nature, the risk measures function in capital preservation and capital allocation to grow business and strategic decision.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: John G. Di Meo, FSA, CERA, MAAA
Panelists: Christopher David Bohn, ASA, CERA, FCAS, MAAA; Hui Shan, FSA, MAAA

Session 2B: Model Validation

Attendees will be presented with case studies and lessons learned with respect to the effectiveness and cost of model validations. Considerations for the second and later validations of a model will be discussed, as well as stakeholder expectations.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Dariush A. Akhtari, FSA, MAAA, FCIA
Panelists: Henry Essert, FSA, FCIA, MAAA; Trevor Howes, FSA, FCIA, MAAA

Session 2A: Risk Management Perspective in Predictive Modeling

This session will explore the risk management perspective on predictive modeling and will answer questions like: What questions should a risk manager ask? How should the model be validate initially? How should the model be validated on an on-going basis? What data considerations should be taken into account? Please come and share success stories and cautionary tales.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Mark W. Griffin, FSA, CERA
Panelists: Lloyd D. Milani, FSA, MAAA, FCIA; Serhat Guven, MAAA, FCAS

Session 1C: From Quantification to Decision Making

From decimal point to SO WHAT - How to go from quantification of risk to move the decision making forward; buy-in and adoption of performing action based on risk information.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Mark Stephen Mennemeyer, FSA, MAAA
Panelists: Alessandro Papa; Thomas Edward Weist, MAAA, FCAS, CERA

Session 1B: Introduction to Predictive Analytics

What is predictive analytics? Old statistic techniques applied on larger datasets? New techniques? And what does that mean in a life/P&C insurance context? This session will provide an introduction to predictive modeling in the insurance context.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Dariush A. Akhtari, FSA, MAAA, FCIA
Panelists: Mark William Birdsall, FSA, MAAA, FCA; Matthew Forrest Gabriel, FSA, MAAA

Session 1A: Best Practices in Model Risk Management by the CRO Council

This table-top exercise will illustrate how the Risk and Control Self-Assessment can support the strategic plan and build the appropriate monitoring structure. Attendance will be limited to facilitate discussion.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Tyson Robert Mohr, FSA, MAAA
Panelists: Alietia Caughron; Sean Keenan

RED Session 4.1: ORSA Process Implementation for Internal Stakeholders

In this session results of a survey sponsored by the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS), Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA), and the Society of Actuaries' (SOA) Joint Risk Management Section are presented. Performed by Milliman, the survey tries to uncover what insurers understand and expect from an ORSA, the effort required to complete an ORSA, and the benefits from doing so. The information provided can help companies enhance current practice and meet the needs of internal stakeholders in cost-effectively conducting and implementing an ORSA process.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Ronald J. Harasym, FSA, CERA, FCIA, MAAA

RED Session 3.1: Parameter Uncertainty

Understanding the uncertainty associated with model estimates is essential to properly quantifying risk. In this session, a new research report on parameter uncertainty sponsored by the Joint Risk Management Section Research Committee is presented. The report defines parameter uncertainty, reviews the latest literature on this topic, and through a series of case studies examines parameter uncertainty. The report provides a new resource for risk management professionals to enhance current practice for evaluating and measuring parameter uncertainty.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Brian Matthew Hartman, ASA

RED Session 2.1: Quantifying Risk Exposure for ORSA

This 20-minute quick hit session is an interactive panel discussion session. Panel of experts will introduce to the audience to the ERM/ORSA Committee of the American Academy of Actuaries' Quantifying Risk Exposures for Own Risk and Solvency Assessment Reports practice note, published in June 2016. This practice note provides the current industry practices for section two of ORSA summary report: Insurer's Assessment of Risk Exposures. During the session, the panel will discuss with the attendees the current industry approaches and processes for quantifying risk exposures or challenges. Some examples of the topics of interest are: risk categories, quantification vs. qualification of risks, risk quantification methodologies commonly used, and application of stress test for risk quantification.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Lesley R. Bosniack, MAAA, FCAS, CERA
Panelists: Lesley R. Bosniack, MAAA, FCAS, CERA; William Robert Wilkins, ASA, CERA, FCAS, MAAA

RED Session 1.2: Emerging Risks

This session will review the 10th Annual Survey of Emerging Risks and share new information learned and comments from risk practitioners. This survey has produced revealing comments about the current status of ERM and how it has evolved. Cognitive biases and practitioner comments of what parts of ERM work and what doesn't work can be incorporated into future developments. We also will do a deeper dive into the emerging risk of climate change.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Max J. Rudolph, FSA, CERA, MAAA

RED Session 1.1: Cognitive Bias and Behavioral Mitigation

While there is no shortage of articles, white papers, books and model frameworks for enterprise risk management (ERM) the majority of them share a common omission in their discussion of key risk categories: cognitive bias. The very fact that ERM is driven by risk assessments created by the human mind means that bias is naturally embedded into estimates of risk impact and likelihood. At a deep Level:, inconsistency and fallacy are hardwired into our brains. This session provides an overview of those cognitive biases most often responsible for flawed risk assessments and provides practical techniques to mitigate them.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Damon Levine

General Session II: Chief Risk Officer Panel

Are there really any common elements of risk management for firms in different sectors? Are we all just using the same name for totally different sets of activities? Is it just the details that are different? This session will explore similarities and differences between ERM programs. Large company chief risk officers will come together in a panel discussion, highlighting common challenges, success stories and expectations for the future. Based on their experiences overseeing risk management activities at very different organizations, these professionals will bring a broad perspective applicable to many practitioners today. At the end of this session, we will ask attendees to decide which it is.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: General Session
Moderators: Mark W. Griffin, FSA, CERA
Panelists: Joe Celentano; Alessandrea Quane; Robert Rupp

General Session I: Algorithms, Data and Their Impact on the World

Professor at the MIT Media Lab, and serial entrepreneur, Kevin Slavin has built renowned projects and companies at the intersections of entertainment, games, big data, next-generation technologies, and design. Weaving metaphors and anecdotes seamlessly together, he will provide the big picture on where technology is going and how it's shaping every aspect of our lives and business.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: General Session
Moderators: Mark W. Griffin, FSA, CERA
Panelists: Kevin Slavin, Assistant Professor & Founder, Playful Systems at MIT Media Lab

General Luncheon

Stephen Boyer CTO, Co-founder, and Board Member of BitSight which has provided evidence-based ratings of security effectiveness to help organizations manage their security risk. Previously, Stephen was president and co-founder of Saperix. He also led R&D programs at MIT Lincoln Laboratory, and he designed, developed, and tested products at Caldera Systems. Stephen holds a bachelor's in computer science from BYU and master of science in engineering and management from MIT. The luncheon is included in your registration fee. You may register your guest(s) for the luncheon by including $75 per person with your registration fee. Admission tickets are available for purchase at the meeting as space permits. Refunds will not be given.
Source: 2017 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: General Session
Panelists: Stephen Boyer

Focus on New Fellows: Volunteering, Millennials and the Growing CAS

Now that you’re finished with exams, do you know services are available to you? Do you wish there were additional services available? New members make up over 1/3 of CAS membership and will guide CAS success into the future. In this interactive session, the CAS New Members Committee will discuss their role in the CAS as millennials and volunteers, and ask what CAS membership means to you. Please come to share your thoughts and ideas on the future of the CAS. New Fellows are encouraged to attend.
Source: 2017 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Moderators: Gary Vadnais
Panelists: Kimberly Guerriero, Rebecca Reich, Bryan Takvorian, Jennifer Aschenbrenner

Professionalism in the Age of Trump

Great effort has been expended in politics analyzing what went right and wrong in predicting outcomes of recent votes such as the ‘Brexit referendum’ and 2016 US presidential election. At the heart of these debates are issues such as validity and transparency of assumptions, quality of data, and relevance of the past in predicting the future. Such considerations could easily be discussed in the context of actuarial professionalism. In this interactive session we analyze political prediction processes, draw insurance analogies, and debate appropriate professional considerations for actuaries.
Source: 2017 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Jim Weiss, Daniel Moskala

Easy Tree-sy: An Overview of Decision Trees

This introductory session will illustrate the fundamentals of decision trees. The presenters will cover the mechanics and some high level theory behind decision trees including their benefits and drawbacks, ways to assess model fit and improve predictive power. A demonstration of fitting a decision tree using real data and free software (R) will allow the audience to see the concepts discussed in action. No prior knowledge of modeling or R software necessary.
Source: 2017 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Kudakwashe Chibanda, Linda Brobeck

They Just Don’t Understand! Getting through without Giving up, or Giving in

This energetic presentation will challenge participants to examine their approach to communication and leadership. Through this session Ron will guide participants in how to understand their own communication style and how others receive us. You will see how your personality sometimes can obstruct effective communication. Armed with this knowledge participants can begin the process of making meaningful connections with others and gain agreement, negotiate outcomes and create team alignment.
Source: 2017 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Ron Hurst

What is iCAS Up To? The Certified Specialist in Predictive Analytics (CSPA) Credential

Leaders of The CAS Institute will share the latest information on the Certified Specialist in Predictive Analytics (CSPA) credential being offered through The CAS Institute (iCAS), a subsidiary of the CAS. This informative and interactive session will cover: •The five requirements for earning the new credential. •The knowledge, competencies and applications to business needs that have been incorporated into the credential's learning objectives, and how mastery will be assessed. •The Experienced Practitioner Pathway, which will grant credentials to those working in data science and predictive analytics who are recognized as accomplished professionals in the field. •The formation of a specialist practice community within iCAS for those interested in data science and predictive analytics. •Any questions you may have about the CAS Institute and any of its credential offerings.
Source: 2017 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session

A Cost of Capital Risk Margin Formula for Non-Life Insurance Liabilities

A Bayesian MCMC stochastic loss reserve model provides an arbitrarily large number of equally likely parameter sets that enable one to simulate future cash flows of the liability. Using these parameter sets to represent all future outcomes, it is possible to describe any future state in the model’s time horizon including those states necessary to calculate a cost of capital risk margin.
Source: 2017 Annual Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Glenn Meyers