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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Tesla vs. Google: What if Uber and ZipCar Had a Baby
Yes. Driverless cars are coming! So let's explore the potential benefits for highly automated cars and car services. How will on-demand autonomous cars propel us to switch from an ownership model to a streaming transportation model? What will be the impact of ownerless/driverless cars on risk management and insurance. This session will give you a peek into the not too distant future. It's not the Jetsons.....yet.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
David Snow, Jared Smollik, Martin Frappolli, David Aylor
Lights! Camera! Professionalism!
Come enjoy the acting of some fine fellow actuaries who will take on several skits involving professional dilemmas. The skits are updated for 2017, but as always they will lead to some lively and educational audience discussions. You will walk away from this session with a better understanding of the ASOPs, codes of conduct and how to apply them when you face your own professional ethical dilemmas. This session may provide attendees with Professionalism Continuing Education credits.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Peter Royek, Michael Chen, Kendall Williams
Who Wants To Be An Actuary?
Come refresh your knowledge of actuarial professionalism in this interactive session! This trivia game will cover a number of topics including a review of the code of conduct and ASOPs, helping you determine what you know and what you might want to review. Who said professionalism can’t be fun? This session may provide attendees with Professionalism Continuing Education credits.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Peter Royek, Michael Speedling, Brandon Shain
What iCAS is Up To? The Certified Specialist in Predictive Analytics (CSPA) Credential
Leaders of The CAS Institute will share the latest information on the Certified Specialist in Predictive Analytics (CSPA) credential being offered through The CAS Institute (iCAS), a subsidiary of the CAS.
This informative and interactive session will cover:
•The five requirements for earning the new credential.
•The knowledge, competencies and applications to business needs that have been incorporated into the credential's learning objectives, and how mastery will be assessed.
•The Experienced Practitioner Pathway, which will grant credentials to those working in data science and predictive analytics who are recognized as accomplished professionals in the field.
•The formation of a specialist practice community within iCAS for those interested in data science and predictive analytics.
•Any questions you may have about The CAS Institute and any of its credential offerings.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Doug Collins
Panelists:
Louise Francis, Bob Miccolis, Amy Brener, Lise Hasegawa
First Steps With Integrating R & RStudio Into Actuarial Workflow
This is a hands-on session during which we will walk through an individual claim simulation model implemented in R. No prior experience with R is assumed, but familiarity with basic programming concepts will be helpful. The goal of the session is to get actuarial practitioners started with integrating R into our workflow. To this end, participants will learn how to execute an R script from R Studio, read and write data from and to *.csv files, and generate pdf exhibits using an R Markdown template.
PLEASE NOTE: Participants are expected to bring a laptop, and install R, R Studio, and TeX Live PRIOR to attending the session (detailed instructions are provided with the attendee resource materials).
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Jean-Francois Greeff, Thomas Hartl
Evolution of the ORSA Summary Report
The presenters will use their knowledge of ORSAs across large, mid-sized and smaller companies (subject to the minimum premium threshold).
The session will particularly explore the significant variation in approach and content that continue to exist between companies in terms of:
- The level of detail given through the Sections I, II and III
- The maturity of Risk Management that is evidenced by ORSA reports
- The presentation of Risk Appetite and the consistency from appetite through into Sections II and III
- The meaning companies place on the concept of own solvency
- The application of stress testing how broad and how deep?
- The use of dynamic models and VaR / TVaR metrics
- Forward projection methods to produce a prospective view of own solvency
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Art Randolph
Panelists:
Barry Franklin, Elisabetta Russo, David Paul
Cyber and Data Security: Coverage and Compliance Considerations
Recent cybersecurity breaches of insurance and other entities have prompted insurance regulators to devote additional resources to the issue. Regulators are stepping up their evaluations of insurers cybersecurity measures, and are issuing additional guidance and creating new requirements that insurance entities must comply with. This session will consider the issues associated with some of these recent developments, as well as new cyber-related issues looming on the horizon.
The recently adopted New York cybersecurity regulation and proposed National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) cybersecurity model law will be discussed, including how its provisions would impact the insurance industry and some of the criticisms of the NAICs approach. Some of the best practices for avoiding breaches, mitigating breaches, and responding to the inevitable breach will be explored. Common concerns regarding cyber liability insurance policies will be discussed, such as some of the pitfalls to look out for when purchasing such products. Finally, the panelists will explore issues arising from the recent breach at Equifax, and what others can learn from the fallout.
This session will include live-polling and Q&A via the CAS app.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Thomas Wakefield
Panelists:
Fred Karlinsky, Wesley Griffiths, Lori Nugent, Karl Pedersen
Predictive Modeling of Property Risks
In this session, we examine property risks using a dependent modeling approach. We focus on the situation where risks are correlated in certain ways and the identification of such dependence among risks is essential to the prediction. We propose a dependence model that allows incorporating multiple sources of dependence into a single predictive modeling framework. We demonstrate the idea using a unique dataset on government property insurance from Wisconsin where property risks are detected to be correlated over time and across space. We emphasize the importance of such dependence in different actuarial applications.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Peng Shi, Erin Olson
The Future of Auto Insurance: A Vision from Japan
The business environment of auto insurance is changing dramatically. With the development of telematics technology, more data is now available to insurance companies. The expansion of mobility services such as car sharing and ride sharing will change the implication of auto insurance to drivers and vehicle owners. Also, AI technology is turning self-driving cars into reality, which can change the risks auto insurance covers.
In Japan, auto insurance has been not only a key product for non-life insurance companies which accounts for about half of written premiums but also an important safety net for Japanese society. It has been developed and adapted to Japan with several unique characteristics and is now facing the big challenges. In this session, we will introduce Japanese auto insurance market and the discussion on the future of auto insurance in Japan. Also, we will show our vision on its future.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Hirokazu Hirai, Keisuke Nakajima, Masashi Hiratsuka, Nana Kato, Shun Motegi, Tomohiro Itabashi
Modeling Hidden Costs of Infectious Diseases
Infectious diseases have impacted societies throughout history, with Zika and Ebola as recent examples. When evaluating infectious disease risk, the traditional focus has been on Life & Health insurance. However, our research shows that costs from non-physical damage business interruption, GDP deflation and other economic impacts can often exceed the magnitude of L&H insurance cost. We will begin by discussing industry expectations and emerging opportunities. Examples include airline/healthcare business interruption and building risk capacity programs for low/middle income countries.
The insurance industry will be disrupted by technology in the near future, and this will affect infectious disease as well. Risks are emerging, along with techniques to quantify them. Presenters will discuss the current state of infectious disease modeling and big data analytics to support novel insurance product development for mitigating against epidemics.
Recent news articles will also be distributed to facilitate discussions throughout the session.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Cody Webb, Cathine Lam
Using Statistical Modeling to Update NCCI's Table M
Primary Segments
a) Overview of Retro Rating
b) Overview of 2017 Changes to Retro Rating
i. Countrywide Table (Similar to Current)
ii. New On Demand live calculations
c) Ideas used to create the Table of Aggregate Loss Factors (formerly insurance charges) including pluses and minuses of alternative approaches
i. Building a Discrete Severity Distribution
ii. Choosing a Collective Risk Model
iii. Creating the Claim Count Distribution with emphasis on the variance of the claim count distribution
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Thomas Daley, Kirk Bitu, Yen-Chieh Tseng
Operations Research and Actuarial Science: Blending the Disciplines
Operations research develops optimal business processes within an organization. Actuarial science applies statistical concepts to quantify financial and insurance risk. How are these two mathematical disciplines related?
In this session, we will explore the connections between these fields within a P&C insurance context. Through a series of interactive case studies, we will explain how integrating actuarial science and predictive analytics into operations research problems can improve top-line growth, risk management, and the customer experience of an insurance company.
The handout for this session will include the slides from the session and code to help actuaries learn more about how to apply operations research.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Thomas Wakefield
Panelists:
Craig Sloss, Jeffrey Baer
Caution! Assigned Risk Plans: Changes Ahead
Personal auto Assigned Risk Plans have been relatively unchanged for decades. In many states, today's volumes are tiny, and have created significant challenges to the efficient management of the plans. The AIPSO Board of Directors distributed an industry communication this summer outlining a proposal to fundamentally change the mechanism in select states, and relieve companies of writing this business on their own paper. This session will explore the background behind why this proposal was made, review the industry input received, and lay a foundation for what the future may look like. Particular emphasis will be placed on how a company can manage through the potential future changes in how they fulfill their residual market obligations.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Charles Kwolek, Jim Rowland
The Actuary and IBNR and IBNYR and IBNER (2)
Actuaries have long understood that total reserve may be decomposed between claims which have not yet been reported (IBNYR) and development on claims which have already been reported (IBNER). However, to date, no algorithms have been widely adopted which feature the separation of those elements of total IBNR. This may be due to actuaries' tacit acceptance of how data is commonly stored and used for analysis. When aggregate loss data is divided into its IBNYR and IBNER components, standard methods may be easily used to form estimates for the individual and total components of reserve. This is a great boon to decision makers who are able to distinguish between distinct sources of reserve uncertainty and plan accordingly.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kim Kurban
Panelists:
Brian Fannin
Cluster Analysis in Loss Reserving (2)
P&C actuaries have used cluster analysis mostly in ratemaking applications (e.g. territorial segmentation and excess loss factor clustering), but not so much in loss reserving.
The traditional actuarial reserving techniques rely on the assumption that the analysis is performed on homogeneous groups of risks. Often, the reserve review will be done by line of business and contract type, with equal consideration given to the financial reporting needs and the homogeneity of risks. Once the analysis structure is established, it will be maintained for many years. The aggregation of data and the convenience of unchanged structure may mask changes in the mix of business or other factors that impact the homogeneity of the loss development patterns.
Cluster analysis is a tool that can be used by reserving actuaries to check for changes in the composition of the analyzed portfolio. Clustering techniques can group risks based on similar loss development patterns, reported loss ratios or other quantitative or qualitative attributes. It may also allow for better prediction of ultimate loss for recently written risks with limited or no historical loss development.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kim Kurban
Panelists:
David Clark, Diana Rangelova, Christina Oda
Strategies for Modeling Loss Development
LDFs are simple in theory but complicated in practice. How does one select LDFs with volatile data? What data should be used – broader and more stable data or finer but more volatile? How many years of data should be used? How do LDFs change when moving up retentions? These questions are posed within a statistical framework and some new methods are shown that help address these questions.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
Uri Korn
Making Commutations Successful (2)
The landscape regarding commutation of a reinsurance contract is changing. Third party “involvement” while not new continues to become more prevalent due to increased portfolio transfers of cedent’s prior year portfolios. The addition of another party makes the commutation more challenging. To address this challenge a close partnership among the ceding company, third party and the reinsurer is essential to reaching a successful conclusion . This session will describe the challenges and how actuaries and commutation leaders from all parties work together to develop, propose and finalize commutations successfully.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
Barbara Murray, Christopher Claus, Joseph Wallen, Joseph Loggia
Challenges in Estimating Self-Insured Development Patterns (2)
Actuaries encounter a number of issues when developing estimates for corporate self-insureds. The self-insured may change their retention, change their third party claim administrator (TPA), or establish their own case basis claim reserves using practices that differ from insurance industry standards. As a result, estimates using benchmark loss development factors or factors based on historical loss development limited to the self-insured retained limits may not be very accurate. This panel will demonstrate the potential errors in in the estimate using erroneous assumptions and offer tips on how to make adjustments to your estimates to account for these changes. A claims specialist will discuss TPA claims management practices for establishing proper case reserves and how working with the actuary to evaluate the claims data will ensure the validation of the case reserve adequacy.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
Lynne Bloom, Matthew Shockley, Ursula Merten
Basics of Medical Professional Liability Reserving
There are several issues that are specific to medical professional liability. This session is an introduction to issues that are relevant to developing unpaid claim estimates for medical professional liability. We will discuss exposure measurement, claim data and methodology.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
Jacob Roe, Stephen Koca
Behavioral Finance for Actuaries
Decision makers are often not rational which can lead to poor decision making as a result of behavioral bias. This is particularly important given the CAS’ Code of Professional Conduct. This session is based on the findings from primary research carried out with actuaries in 2016 and looks at:
• What biases actuaries demonstrate in practice
• Whether actuaries are more or less biased than the general population
• How actuaries can minimize the impact of biases in their work
• How actuaries can effectively communicate with users of actuarial work
The work has been undertaken by a cross-practice working party, which is reviewing the application of behavioral finance to actuarial work. The aim of the working party is to improve understanding and to provide recommendations of how behavioral finance can be incorporated into actuarial work to enhance the role of the actuary and lead to more effective decision making.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
James Guszcza, Kathy Byrne
Self Insured Medical Plan Accruals
Because of rising health coverage costs, many employers are self-insuring their active employee medical coverage. P&C actuaries have the skills and qualifications to determine the required reserves for active employee medical plans and should offer their services. This session will describe the difference between active employee medical plans and other postemployment benefits (OPEB) plans, which usually require a pension actuary to review. Speakers will describe the different types of self-insured medical plans and the actuarial techniques commonly used to estimate the reserves for these plans.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kim Kurban
Panelists:
Alan Hines, Kathlyn Herrick
ORSA: Year 1 and Beyond
ORSA requires insurers to assess their current and future risk via an internal process, which provides regulators an enhanced view of an insurer's ability to withstand financial stress. The NAIC ORSA model went into effect on January 1, 2015.
How has the market responded and what are the priorities going forward? This session provides a high level overview of ORSA requirements, and outlines regulatory and market feedback in connection with early ORSA summary report submissions on topics including:
• Alignment of risk and capital
• Forward looking capital assessments
• Integration with operational decision making
• Model validation
• Extreme scenario stress tests
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
Jed Isaman, Will Brown
Integrating Reserve Variability into ERM
The development of a wide variety of reserve variability models has been primarily driven by the need to quantify reserve uncertainty. This quantification can serve as the basis for satisfying a number of Solvency II requirements in Europe, can be used to enhance Own Risk Solvency Assessment (ORSA) reports, and is often used as an input to DFA or dynamic risk models, to name but a few. Moving beyond quantification, the purpose of this presentation is to explore other aspects of reserve variability which allow for a more complete integration of these key risk metrics into the larger enterprise risk management framework.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Mark Shapland
Linking Reserve Variability to Variability in Future Accident Year Loss Ratio Forecasts
Estimating the variability in the next new accident year’s loss ratio is common task when creating a model to estimate the risk from insurance operations for Enterprise Risk Management (ERM). A case study will outline how to link an estimated reserve distribution that, for a given coverage, captures the inherent variability in reserve estimates to a distribution that, for the next new accident year, describes the behavior of the forecast loss ratio. The session will focus on the logic behind linking the two estimated distribution functions via simulation and on how to shape the results of the reserve model and current accident year loss ratio model when merging the two. The case study will include a realistic example of the process showing the inputs as parameters from the two distributions and the results; the case will not, however, cover the statistical modeling theory employed to generate the two starting distribution functions.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Michael Larsen, Thomas Struppeck
The IFRS 17 Risk Adjustment Provision for Risk & Uncertainty Explained
This session will continue the discussion from the IFRS 17 Insurance Contracts session. Under IFRS 17, a risk adjustment liability will be estimated. Such a liability has never been an explicit part of financial reporting for US business or for business written in many other countries. While IFRS 17 risk adjustments are similar to reserve margins currently reported in Canada and Australia, IFRS 17 adds several new twists to this concept. The International Actuarial Association commissioned Deloitte Consulting to write an educational monograph concerning IFRS 17 risk adjustments. Deloitte has been working on the monograph for many months and is now finalizing the monograph to be published in the Fall of 2017. This session will explain the risk adjustment principles laid out in IFRS 17 and highlight several of the complexities involved in estimating IFRS risk adjustments. Using illustrations and case studies taken from the monograph, the presentation will address the main areas for actuaries who will be involved in estimating such risk adjustments, providing assistance to auditors, or analyzing the IFRS reports of companies who report under IFRS 17.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
Bob Miccolis, Brian O'Neill
