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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Actuaries in Non-Traditional Roles
As actuaries, we are all trained and raised in long-standing, time tested methods. We are all deeply ingrained with the intricacies of legacy methods like Bornheutter-Ferguson, chain-ladder for reserving, and univariate pricing methods. Many of us have very successful careers by mastering these core actuarial methods. However, for some in our profession, they take their training and knowledge gained through the CAS exam process, as well as skills learned on the job, and use that to catapult them to a role that you may not generally associate as something an Actuary would do. Today, we will hear from three Actuaries that are now working in what many of us would consider to be non-traditional roles. They will discuss their career path, steps taken to get to where they are and how their actuarial training and knowledge aids them in their current role.
Speakers include Howard Kunst of CoreLogic, a financial / economic scenario modeling firm; Stacey Gotham of AIR-Worldwide, a well known and accepted catastrophe modeling firm; Susan Bermender of USAA and Dustin Loeffler of Aon Benfield. Howard and Stacey will discuss the role of an actuary at modeling firms, Susan will discuss how she is utilizing her actuarial skills and training in a non-traditional way at USAA and Dustin will discuss his role as a structured / technical reinsurance broker.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Dustin Loeffler, Howard Kunst, Susan Bermender, Stacey Gotham
The Actuarial Climate (and Climate Risk) Indices: Uses for Modeling
This session will provide the latest information on the Actuarial Climate Index, which was launched in November 2016, and its companion index, the Actuarial Climate Risk Index. Session will focus on activity on the climate risk indices website: actuariesclimateindex.org. How much activity has been on the site? What are the highlights of published index values over the past year? What is the timetable for the ACRI launch? What types of research can be done with the ACI data? Research ideas will be explored through Nominal Group Techniques.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
Douglas Collins, Dustin Loeffler
Is It Time to Revisit How to Address Natural Hazard Risks?
Flood and natural hazard risks in general are a growing problem in the Western world, and three major parties are impacted: property owners, governments and insurers. Are these parties doing enough to proactively mitigate the risk before disaster strikes? Property owners often assume that government and insurance will take care of them after natural disaster strikes. Governments are typically reactive rather than proactive. The insurance industry, although a little better, often focuses on simply pricing the risk, which may force many properties out of the insurance market. The insurance industry in general, and Casualty Actuaries in particular, are uniquely poised to be on the leading edge of developing a new, more comprehensive approach to address this problem.
The government deals with the majority of the flood risk while the private insurance industry addresses most of the other natural hazards. How has that worked? Global warming and sea level rise are the newest factors to impact some of the risks.
Risk mitigation should be a major component in addressing natural hazard risks. The U.S. domestic industry seems to have done a decent job of addressing the fire risk over the years. Its efforts with the wind risk seem to be less so however. Even with the positive actions taken by property insurers following Hurricane Andrew regarding the strengthening of the focus on building code enforcement at the local level, some insurers have chosen however to either reduce their market share or withdraw from it altogether in some areas, which is not a solution.
Perhaps it is time to revisit how the risk from natural hazards are addressed by the government and private sector!
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Jason Harger, Peter Dailey, H. Joseph Coughlin Jr.
Addressing Unconscious Bias in the Workplace
The financial case for diversity is strong. However, diversity efforts often fail if there is no culture of inclusion. A key barrier to creating a truly inclusive culture is unconscious bias.
In this session, we will cover the four basic types of unconscious biases common to the workplace that affect us and the way that we interact with others. The session will include examples that apply to actuaries in the work force.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Keith Allen, Alejandro Ortega, Kezia Charles
Data Science and Behavioral Science- A Cognitive Collaboration
This session will explore the “last mile problem” of data science where algorithms can, but may not always, point us in the right direction. Data Science rarely ever becomes the complete solution. Judgement and decision-making follow. Whether we have the appropriate models and algorithms in the era of “Big Data” or not, we are all still human beings with our respective psychologies, experience, and human biases. Some have voiced fears that artificial intelligence could replace humans altogether. But is that likely? A more valuable approach may be to view machine and human intelligence as complementary, with each bringing its own strengths to the table.
Join us in an interactive session with the audience in discussing some of these questions and explore how data science and behavioral science can work together in our continued evolution and collaboration of artificial intelligence and human decision-making.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Patrick Gihool
Panelists:
James Guszcza, David Ingram, Kudakwashe Chibanda
Reserve Risk and Benchmarking Unpaid Claim Distributions
This first speaker will present the implicit actuarial perspective on reserve risk as the potential variability in the ultimate unpaid due to variability in both the ultimate loss and the development pattern That part of the session will also consider more broadly other sources of reserve risk; including structural drivers, correlation, and the reserves such as CAT and mass tort reserves that are not well-modeled by triangle analysis.
The second speaker will discuss unpaid claim distributions. Prior research has suggested that commonly used models tend to underestimate the breadth of the distribution of possible outcomes so benchmarks to help gauge the quality of the distribution are needed. Extensive research based on over 30,000 triangles of industry data over a 10 year span has provided new insights into benchmarking all models, including deterministic ranges and correlation. These insights have important implications for all uses of reserve variability modeling, including capital modeling and enterprise risk management.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kyle Reed
Panelists:
Mark Shapland, Ira Robbin
Individual Claims Reserving Made Easy (Livestreaming)
The session will provide an overview of a GLM reserving methodology applied to individual claims, based on a 2004 paper by Taylor and McGuire. More advanced than traditional triangle-based methods, it has the power to allow for changes in claims closure rates while also providing useful management insight to closure trends at a granular level.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
Patrick Yu, Paul Bailey
Presenting Your Data Graphically
Presenting data graphically can help to more effectively communicate your message. The physical layout of the graphics can enhance or inhibit your ability to communicate, or can even mislead your audience. In this session, we will cover best practices for representing data graphically, showing both good and bad examples, and discussing why the good examples are superior.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Aaron Hillebrandt, Meyer Lehman
IFRS 17 Insurance Contracts - the Final Standard is Here!
In May 2017, after 20 years in the making, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) adopted International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 17 - Insurance Contracts, effective for IFRS reporting beginning in 2021. As most countries outside the US have or will adopt IFRS as their basis of financial reporting, IFRS 17 will transform financial reporting standards for many companies. IFRS 17 will rely on actuarial expertise much more than under existing financial reporting standards today: Requirements will include discounting for nearly all unpaid claim liabilities, a provision for uncertainty and a complex model for certain contracts with terms longer than one year. This session will provide a summary of IFRS 17 and its related impacts in particular as it affects property and casualty insurance and reinsurance companies.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael McKnight
Panelists:
Lela Patrik, Dawn Fowle, Keith Palmer, Adam Kallin
Cyber for Small to Midsize Enterprises
An overview of some of the specialized coverage needs for cyber for small to midsize enterprises (SMEs) as well as some of the pricing and underwriting challenges. SMEs demand a simplified and quick application process and a low price point, which creates unique considerations when pricing/underwriting this growing market segment.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
Beth Fitzgerald, Nicholas Irwin, Annamaria Landaverde, RPLU
Capital Allocation: Concepts and Controversies
How much risk capital does a company need and how should it be allocated to cover reserve, cat, and underwriting risk by line of business? This session will examine how regulatory, rating agency, and management perspectives can give rise to different answers. The presenters will cover basic concepts, illustrate alternative formulas, and compare results for an example that has both underwriting and reserve risk for two LOBs. The speakers will then discuss pros and cons for several specific areas of controversy, for example, should risk be measured on a one-year or ultimate basis and then electronically poll the audience on these questions.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
Nicholas Pastor, Ira Robbin, Daniel Bauer
The Importance of Actuaries in Captive Insurance
Captive insurance companies have been around since the 1950s and are currently a popular alternative vehicle for insuring risks associated with businesses. Various types of captives are available. This session will give an overview of the types of captives, where they are most commonly used, and the most common reasons why captives are formed. The panelists will discuss the role of the actuary in formation, pricing, and reserving for a captive. Additionally the panelists will review funding models, enterprise risk captives, risk distribution and discuss ongoing tax concerns.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Rob Walling, Chris Nash, David Liptz
Ogden Rates: Issues/Concerns to Consider when moving to a Negative Long Term Discount Rate
In February 2017, the long-term discount rate in UK, known as the Ogden Rate, was reduced to -.75% from 2.5% of lump sum payments in personal injury cases. This session will explore the impacts of this change as well as the industry's response.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Keith Allen, Peter Cordell
University Actuarial Programs and the Property and Casualty Industry – CAS University Award Winners Share Their Insights and Best Practices
In June 2017, three universities were selected as recipients of the 2017 CAS University Award, an honor created to recognize schools doing exemplary work in preparing students for a career in the property and casualty insurance industry.
The schools honored include Ball State University, St. John’s University, and University of Wisconsin-Madison.
A representative from St. John’s University and University of Wisconsin-Madison will discuss how they are incorporating property and casualty into their curriculum, research, industry engagement initiatives, and innovations. Attendees will hear best practices on how companies can partner with universities and work together to prepare the next generation of property and casualty actuaries.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Gary Vadnais
Panelists:
Raju Bohra, Albert Beer
Introducing Technology-Based Examination Session
The CAS has announced that it is transitioning its exams to a computer-based environment called Technology-Based Examination (TBE), beginning with Exam 5 in spring 2018. Leaders from the Admissions area of the CAS will provide an overview and discuss various aspects of TBE, with a focus on how this innovative approach will better prepare future actuaries. Come to this interactive session prepared with your questions about this exciting evolution of the CAS Basic Education system.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Thomas Wakefield
Panelists:
Steven Armstrong, Michelle Iarkowski
Answers and Questions about the California Workers’ Compensation System
The answer is: ALAE, Claim Frequency and Rate.
Question: What does California’s workers’ compensation system lead the nation in?
Mark Priven and Alex Swedlow will offer a detailed primer on unique issues and current events driving the California WC system. Their presentation will be followed by a spirited audience participation round of “Jeoparody”. No cash prizes, but knowledge gained makes a great parting gift.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Mark Priven, Alex Swedlow
Correlations between Lines of Business - Are They Real or Illusionary?
1) Correlations Between Insurance Lines of Business: An Illusion or a Real Phenomenon? Some Methodological Considerations, by Avanzi, Taylor, Wong
Winner – 2017 Hachemeister Prize. This paper is concerned with dependency between business segments in the Property & Casualty industry. When considering the business of an insurance company at the aggregate level, dependence structures can have a major impact in several areas of Enterprise Risk Management, such as in claims reserving and capital modelling. The accurate estimation of the diversification benefits related to the dependence structures between lines of business ("LoBs") is crucial for (i) capital efficiency, as one should avoid holding unnecessarily high levels of capital, and (ii) solvency of the insurance company, as an underestimation, on the other hand, may lead to insufficient capitalisation and safety.
2) Dependencies in Stochastic Loss Reserve Models, by Meyers
Given a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic loss reserve model for two separate lines of insurance, this paper describes how to fit a bivariate stochastic model that captures the dependencies between the two lines of insurance. A Bayesian MCMC model similar to the Changing Settlement Rate (CSR) model, as described in Meyers (2015), is initially fit to each line of insurance. Then taking a sample from the posterior distribution of parameters from each line, this paper shows how to produce a sample that represents a bivariate distribution that maintains the original univariate distributions as its marginal distributions. This paper goes on to compare the predicted distribution of outcomes by this model with the actual outcomes, and a bivariate model predicted under the assumption that the lines are independent. It then applies two Bayesian model selection statistics to compare the fits of the two models.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Chen
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers, Greg Taylor, Benjamin Avanzi
UBI Data Possibilities
Rates of UBI adoption continue to creep up slowly but can tech and the infrastructure now form the basis for an entire suite of new auto insurance possibilities?
• Get to grips with the power of UBI data in the claims resolution process, from accident reconstruction and accident management to repairs, FNOL, and tackling fraud.
• Debate how to deliver new products that utilize advanced analytics and new data sets provided by the data exchange to enhance insurer’s value proposition and consumer engagement.
• As more driving assistance tech is added to vehicles, assess what data sets will best determine pricing models (car vs. human braking to measure risk effectively, etc.)
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kyle Reed
Panelists:
Geoffrey Werner, Gary Wang, Kathryn Walker, Russell Lee
Emerging Claim Issues and How to Price & Underwrite Them
Insurance risks evolve with society and technology. There was no cyber insurance exposure before the internet; no social media exposure before the likes of Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and those 140 characters called Tweets; no marijuana exposure before you could legally smoke it; and no widespread, short-term rental and ridesharing exposure before the rise of the sharing economy.
The first speaker will describe emerging claim issues for cyber, social media, marijuana and the sharing economy. He will also mention how they are evolving from a legal standpoint. The second speaker will discuss how to price these emerging risks and which approaches can be taken when there is not much data to rely on.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
General Session
Panelists:
Benoit Carrier, Karen Landrum, Eric Voigt
Innovation in Commercial Lines: An Oxymoron?
Commercial insurers have not fully benefited from the advent of data analytics and the connected economy. With loss, expense and combined ratios trending up across many lines such as excess casualty, commercial auto and medical malpractice, the industry needs to innovate. To that end, reassessing the way we conduct business to underwrite with better insight and more precision and in an operationally efficient manner is a must.
Discussion Points:
• Do you differentiate between customer segment (small versus mid-market) when deciding on an automated data and analytics-driven strategy?
• Can you share a success story where the use of digitization and data helped you accelerate profitable growth?
• What will the growing impact of machine learning and automation be on your ability to attract and retain talent and preserve your corporate culture?
• What role will actuaries play in the required innovation?
• What is the overall impact these changes will have on the industry and by when?
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Paul Kinson
Panelists:
Greg Massey, Elizabeth Casas Leano, Marya Propis
Are We Ready For the Future of Hail?
U.S. insurers paid almost 2.6 million claims for hail losses from 2014 to 2016. Most of those losses — 40 percent — came in 2016 alone. In fact, insurance claims for hail damage jumped 56 percent from 2015 to 2016, with Texas, Colorado and Nebraska ranking highest, respectively, for the number of hail damage claims filed, according to an analysis of data from ISO ClaimSearch. Hail is a highly localized peril, so every insurer will have a different loss experience. The highly localized nature of hailstorms makes them one of the most challenging risks to manage. Even in the “traditional” hail states, losses can fluctuate dramatically from one year to the next. Outlier states are the scenarios that keep underwriting executives up at night. Understanding the effects of hail at the industry level can provide a wealth of insights to enhance future underwriting and rating decisions.
In this session we will discuss the future for hail losses and the impact of climate change, as well as methods to reduce property losses. We will also discuss examples of volatility in both the frequency and severity of hail losses and the changes in hail loss experience.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Thomas Wakefield
Panelists:
Arindam Samanta, John Allen
The Trust Edge™: How Top Leaders and Organizations Drive Business Results Through Trust
Trust is a fundamental, bottom line issue. Without it, leaders lose teams, salespeople lose sales, and organizations lose reputation, good employees, relationships and revenue. But with trust, individuals and organizations enjoy greater creativity, productivity, freedom and results. Through his industry-leading research, The Trust Outlook™, and his firsthand experience working with the world’s highest-performing organizations, Horsager reveals how top leaders and organizations drive business results to become the most trusted in their industry.
Key Takeaways:
• The actionable framework you can use immediately to build trust and solve your biggest challenges.
• The HOW-HOW-HOW process to spark momentum, see immediate results and inspire trust.
• The newest research on how to develop trust individually, in your team and in your organization – or go extinct in the new economy.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Featured Speaker
Panelists:
David Horsager
Applying Brain Rules for Effective Presentations
Got PowerPoint? Got numbers? Got cool charts? Check! Check! Check! Ready to give an effective presentation? …maybe not. More and more resources are available to us to put our numbers into more effectively designed graphs and charts. The next step is to put all of this information into effective presentations. Applying adult learning theory, specifically "Brain Rules", this interactive session will both explore specific rules that apply to presentations and collaboratively diagnose enhancements to a number of sample slides.
Problem slides? Send your slide to us in advance of the session and we will try to use it in our session. Want some private support and not to be shared? Let us know that too. Email to: stephanier@holborn.com
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Beverly Phillips, Stephanie Rabin
Rising Auto Insurance Costs : What and Why
We all see the ads on TV : better cars, which brake by themselves before you react to prevent a terrible collision. And the use of telematics (“big brother is watching you”) is increasing in truck fleets. With all these technological advances, why are the auto insurance costs rising?
The first speaker will shed light on which personal auto costs are rising and describe the general trends affecting this industry.
The second speaker will talk about commercial auto and drill down a step further into nonstandard versus standard personal auto. What is nonstandard auto? Are their results also deteriorating? Better or worse than standard auto, and why?
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
James Lynch, Benoit Carrier, David Blades
What does the updated AM Best Rating System Mean for the Insurance Industry?
A.M. Best has recently implemented substantial updates to the Best's Credit Rating Methodology (BCRM) -- its global rating methodology for insurers and reinsurers. In addition, a new version of Best's capital model (BCAR), which measures risk-adjusted capital adequacy at different confidence intervals, has also been released into production. This session will examine the credit fundamentals of the U.S. Property Casualty sector, identify the critical rating drivers, and highlight the impact of the new BCRM on Financial Strength Ratings. In addition, there will be an in-depth review of the enhancements to the BCAR model -- focusing specifically on the core risk categories of underwriting, reserving, investment and credit.
Source:
2017 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Thomas Wakefield
Panelists:
Stefan Holzberger, Raju Bohra, James Gillard
