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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
MSA Updates and Trend in Lump Sum Settlement
Using proposed workers’ compensation settlements whose MSAs have been reviewed by CMS, panelists will discuss:
1. Brief description, definitions and original expectations of MSAs impact on WC.
2. Demographics related to MSAs, such as:
a. The distributions of amounts of MSAs and total settlements that include MSAs.
b. The distributions of ages of claimants.
3. Aspects of the CMS review process, such as:
a. The length of time from submission to CMS approval.
b. The relation between submitted and CMS-approved MSA amounts.
4. Multistate perspective on the frequency and costs of lump-sum settlement in WC Claims, including some of the factors that influence interstate differences and trends.
5. The theoretical and practical implications in the world of increasing settlements.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Paddock
Panelists:
David Colon, Benjamin Witkowski, Christine Fleming, Carol Telles
ASOP 17: "Expert Testimony by Actuaries" and Proposed Revisions
The ASB recently approved an exposure draft of a revision of ASOP No. 17, "Expert Testimony by Actuaries." The proposed revised standard will apply to actuaries who are qualified as experts under the evidentiary rules applicable in a forum when they provide testimony in court hearings, dispute resolutions, depositions or other adversarial proceedings, and in rate hearings. This session will discuss the revision and also discuss how to present expert testimony.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Michael Toothman, Steven Schwartz, Margaret Sherwood
Company Specific Risk Factors for SAO Users
Through audience participation, this session will discuss company specific risk factors that might be significant to users of Statements of Actuarial Opinions (SAO). Panelists include a consulting actuary, an academic, a member of COPLFR and a state regulator, who will all provide a variety of perspectives to engage the audience.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
James Lynch
Panelists:
Kevin Ahlgrim, Erich Brandt, Gregory Fears, Julie Lederer
Establishing a Model Validation Framework
As companies are becoming increasingly reliant on complex insurance models, model Risk Management (MRM) and model validation, one of its key components, continues to receive increasing attention from regulators, rating agencies, senior managements, and ERM professionals. But before we establish best practices on model validation as an industry, it is useful to understand the approaches taken by other industries (e.g. bank models, software models) to validate their respective models.
The first part of the session discusses best practices that could be incorporated into a model validation framework.
The second part of the session discusses the use of benchmark capital factors and its potential applications.
Source:
2017 Enterprise Risk Management for the P&C Actuary
Type:
Concurrent session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
Jason Abril
Common Challenges to Implementing a Capital Modelling Framework
This technical session will discuss a number of common issues and their solutions to building an economic capital model and cover approaches to economic capital calculation and allocation. This will include example case studies on how to use the methods for common applications.
Source:
2017 Enterprise Risk Management for the P&C Actuary
Type:
Concurrent session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
Matthew Peters, Jason Abril
Balancing Risk, Growth and Capital
ERM should help to achieve strategic goals of the organization. With the help of ERM, insurers are also creating new goals that relate to the relationship between risk and capital. Keeping risk and capital in balance is a key goal that is then chosen by many insurers. This session will discuss ways that ERM can play a key role in planning and managing to achieve that goal. In planning, ERM can help management to recognize the constraints on growth and profitability that come with balancing risk and capital. In managing, ERM's role to keep risk taking to within planned risk tolerances is now seen to be supporting strategic goals, not just "business prevention."
Results from an extensive survey of ERM and Strategy within insurers will be used to show how insurer's ERM programs are (or are not) consistent with their strategy.
Source:
2017 Enterprise Risk Management for the P&C Actuary
Type:
Concurrent session
Panelists:
Barry Franklin, Robert Wolf, David Ingram
Comparing Fatness of Tails
ERM often concentrates on managing Tail Risk. But mathematical measures such as skew and kurtosis are not easy to explain. This session will demonstrate how a simple metric for measuring Fatness of Tails (Coefficient of Risk) can be used to compare the fatness of tails from a wide variety of risk models. Those comparisons will be discussed and the utility of this simple metric in discussing Tail Risk Fatness will be demonstrated. The participants will obtain from this session a burning desire to go back to their companies and compute the Coefficient of Risk for their own risk models.
Source:
2017 Enterprise Risk Management for the P&C Actuary
Type:
Concurrent session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
David Ingram
Useful Emerging Risk Workshop (Actuaries Climate Index)
Emerging risk "management" typically involves scary scenario generation but little to no useable output. We will show some examples of useful emerging risk modeling, focusing on the drivers of the problem, development of plausible ranges of outcomes, and key risk indicators which can be monitored over time.
Source:
2017 Enterprise Risk Management for the P&C Actuary
Type:
Concurrent session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
W. James MacGinnitie
Probabilistic Decision Making
This session will explore ways to help key opinion leaders become more comfortable and conversant with making decisions using output from economic capital models. We will discuss various risk and reward metrics and frameworks, discuss some behavioral finance concepts, and consider case studies. Audience is encouraged to participate.
Source:
2017 Enterprise Risk Management for the P&C Actuary
Type:
General session
Moderators:
Sarah Voit
Panelists:
Alietia Caughron, Tim Borst
Reinsurance Reserving Issues - Use of Benchmarks and Reflection of Individual Claims Data
The reinsurance reserving actuary is frequently confronted with sparse and erratic data, unusual claims and, for certain lines, accumulations of claims from one underlying cause. This session will explore best practices for using external benchmarks as supplements to company experience. It will also discuss how individual claim information can be incorporated within the reserving process.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
James Lynch
Panelists:
Christopher Bozman, Sarah Krutov, Chaim Markowitz
Collateralized Reinsurance Fair Valuation
Panelists will examine methods and techniques being developed in the collateralized reinsurance marketplace to produce fair values of P&C liabilities.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
James Lynch
Panelists:
David Third, Sina Thieme
Benchmarking Unpaid Claim Distributions
Unpaid claim distributions are a critical component of many different risk management applications. Prior research has suggested that commonly used models tend to underestimate the breadth of the distribution of possible outcomes so benchmarks to help gauge the quality of the distribution are needed. Extensive research based on over 30,000 triangles of industry data over a 10 year span has provided new insights into benchmarking all models, including deterministic ranges and correlation. These insights have important implications for all uses of reserve variability modeling, including capital modeling and enterprise risk management.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Joe Palmer
Panelists:
Mark Shapland
Pennsylvania Medical Professional Liability Alternative Risk Funding
This session will highlight current challenges and practices in the Pennsylvania medical malpractice area. Panelists will relate real-life application of alternate risk funding for two large Philadelphia health care systems and present two non-actuarial perspectives — a risk management executive’s and a broker’s. The learning objectives include the following topics:
• Medical malpractice coverage features unique to Pennsylvania and how they impact claims management, risk retention and loss reserving.
• How the ever-changing health care landscape is affecting risk management practices, funding programs and loss reserving.
• Issues and new approaches in the structure of overlying reinsurance.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Joe Palmer
Panelists:
Alice Edmondson, Dianne Salter, Roger Fell
Trends and Impacts of WC Attorney Involvement and Costs
The Workers Compensation Research Institute presents a multi-state perspective on recent trends in WC attorney incidence (both defense attorney and workers’ attorney incidence rates) and defense attorney payments per claim. A consulting firm claims manager will provide an overview of litigation management trends and common practices utilized by carriers and third-party administers to drive efficiencies and reduce litigation related costs. An actuarial consultant will present thoughts on the potential impact of recent court decisions in Florida affecting attorney fees on overall workers compensation costs, as well a case study of the impact of attorney activity on claim costs and claim frequency subsequent to a 75% reduction in workforce by a large self-insured employer.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Paddock
Panelists:
Scott Lefkowitz, Carol Telles, Kevin Sanjurjo
How to Effectively Use New and External Data
In this session, the first speaker will highlight the need to look at external data sources and how to connect to them. He will mention companies using external data sources to solve various business problems. He will also discuss the use of artificial intelligence or machine learning to digest unstructured data into structured data sets.
The second speaker will talk about the different data needs, how we can use this data, the benefits it can provide us, the elements to consider before acquiring new data and the best practices when analyzing it. He will also discuss how to properly use the data to learn and influence the customer's behavior (e.g. through usage based insurance).
Source:
2017 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Benoit Carrier, Gregory Gilbert, Maxime Lafleur-Forcier
Who Wants To be An Actuary?
Come and refresh your knowledge of actuarial professionalism in this lively and interactive session! A fun trivia game will cover a number of topics including a code of conduct and ASOPs, affirming the areas you know and challenging you to review the rest. Who said one can't have fun while learning about professionalism?
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Paddock
Panelists:
Peter Royek, Martin Menard
Lights! Camera! Professionalism!
Have you come across professional dilemmas that you wish you had seen in a skit before facing them? Could you benefit from such an exposure before you face such dilemmas? Come and see some fine acting by your fellow actuaries while they perform sketches and grapple with such issues. You will walk away from this session with a better understanding of ASOPs, codes of conduct and how to apply them when you face your own professional ethical dilemmas.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Paddock
Panelists:
Therese Klodnicki, Kristen Goodrich
Reserve Variability in Traditional Methods
The first half of the session will demonstrate the specific result that reserve risk is the sum of insurance risk and inflation risk. This example is used to demonstrate the important role of convolution equations in loss reserving. This portion of the session requires no specific knowledge of the subject. The second half of the session will discuss the role of transform analysis in loss reserving. While this subject is highly technical in nature, the session will provide an intuitive introduction.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
James Ely
Inflation Sensitive Loss Development Projections
This session will provide a concise method for reflecting changing inflation rates in loss development projections. The method finds a constant cost loss emergence pattern that is consistent with the loss emergence parameters in GLMs using convolution equations.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
James Ely
Rehabilitating Traditional Reserving Methods
Advances in statistical reserving have moved far beyond our algebraic theory. The session will reinterpret and extend the algebraic foundations of loss reserving to parallel the advances in GLMs. It will address the generally understood problems that traditional methods have no underlying mathematical basis, are deterministic, and do not address changes in severity trends.
The session will also explain how to describe the diagonals of a two dimensional system as a function of the basis vectors (using convulsion equations)
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
James Ely
The End of Triangles: Loss Reserves in the Digital Age
Big data, robotics, and cognitive computing are part of nearly every field today. While we like to consider actuaries “the original” data scientists, our profession isn’t immune to change, either. Should we stay on the beach enjoying the triangles, patterns and other traditional approaches that our profession has relied on for more than 50 years, or should we chase the thrilling tidal wave of all opportunities to modernize our methods and technologies?
Last year we discussed a first generation application of machine learning to actuarial analysis, which was at an aggregated triangular level. This year, Zurich and KPMG will jointly discuss more advanced cognitive reserving – at the claim, coverage, and policy level. Cognitive reserving is already offering actuaries deeper and quicker insights, faster reaction, more frequent review, increased efficiency, and improved communication.
We will begin with how cognitive reserving fits into reserve modernization, which includes three other core components: data visualization & reporting, robotic process automation and enterprise response. Then we will discuss what the model structures look like, how the model components blend together to predict the ultimate losses, how to validate the models, and how to evaluate model performance. We will show sample insights and results that cognitive reserving produces.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
James Heer
Panelists:
G. Nyce, Andrew Golfin, Alexander Laurie, Hongmei Li, Zachary Martin
Intermediate R
This workshop in intended for individuals that already have a familiarity with R. These individuals should already have conducted several data analyses in R. The Workshop Syllabus will include the following:
•Anonymous functions with *apply or purr::map functions.
•Package development using the roxygen2 package.
•Data access and data munging.
•Reporting via RMarkdown and Sweave.
•htmlwidgets.
•Version control using git.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
Tim Paddock
Panelists:
Brian Fannin
Reserving Bootcamp
What better way to jump start or refresh your loss reserving skills than in this one day loss reserving boot camp? This session will enhance your basic and intermediate skills and prepare you for the more advanced loss reserving topics to be presented in the CLRS. Participants will be part of a loss reserving team evaluating and estimating reserves from data organization to selecting the best estimate. Using hands-on learning, this session will divide participants into small teams of five to seven. The teams will work with experienced loss reserving professionals, using realistic loss and expense claims data. Sessions goals are to build triangles, compute and select loss development factors; perform a variety of loss and loss adjustment expense reserving methods; compare the results of various methods and their strengths and weaknesses; review additional information and take that into consideration in the methods and estimates; and make final reserve selections. The teams will compare and discuss their differences.
This workshop is appropriate for actuaries as well as non-actuaries. A laptop with wifi capabilities will be required.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
James Heer
Panelists:
Jane Taylor, D. Scott Lamb, Karin Rhoads, Peter Rauner
Imaginator: An R Package for Claim Simulation
For some years now, a publicly available data set of aggregate losses has existed —a boon to researchers who are able to test loss reserving methods against actual data. However, there is nothing comparable for individual claims. The R package presented in this session is a platform-independent simulation tool that is highly customizable and capable of generating data for virtually any practical scenario.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
James Heer
Panelists:
Brian Fannin
The Actuary and IBNR and IBNYR and IBNER
Actuaries have long understood that total reserve may be decomposed between claims which have not yet been reported (IBNYR) and development on claims which have already been reported (IBNER). However, to date, no algorithms have been widely adopted which feature the separation of those elements of total IBNR. This may be due to actuaries' tacit acceptance of how data is commonly stored and used for analysis. When aggregate loss data is divided into its IBNYR and IBNER components, standard methods may be easily used to form estimates for the individual and total components of reserve. This is a great boon to decision makers who are able to distinguish between distinct sources of reserve uncertainty and plan accordingly.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
James Heer
Panelists:
Brian Fannin
