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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Using Actuarial Methods to Minimize Chronic Disease
The healthcare sector is the largest risk facing first-world and developing nations. Cost, lack of patient motivation and political risk make implementing any changes very difficult. Population demographics and modern lifestyles are expected to increase the incidence and prevalence of chronic and other diseases across all age strata. Traditionally, it is post-diagnosis when action is taken, though the ability to reverse losses then may be almost impossible.
Especially in a public-funded healthcare system, integrating actuarial and clinical practice we have the opportunity to achieve the triple aim: improving the individual experience of care; improving the health of populations; and reducing the per capita costs of care for populations. A triple win: patients do not want to become very ill with a life full of appointments, prescription protocols, etc.; providers would be more satisfied helping patients avoid expected health decline; and the system can save resources. Reduced utilization occurs by improving the health status and quality of life of citizens.
With the use of actuarial tools – in particular, predictive modeling – high-risk citizens may be identified very accurately and early so expected future utilization and costs may be minimized or avoided. This is possible well before diagnosis/incidence, so these high risk patients may be assisted to change their expected trajectory. Cost savings occur because those identified do not need the amount or intensity of interventions expected.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Esther Becker
Panelists:
Keith Allen, Ella Young, Ian Duncan
Update on iCAS and the Coming of New Specialist Credentials
Bob Miccolis, Wayne Fisher, and Ann Conway will provide an overview of how the CAS sees iCAS as an innovative approach to blend together the skills of actuaries and data scientists to address complex business challenges. Rather than perpetuate the perception that there is a "great divide" between actuaries and data scientists, iCAS envisions a collaborative, multi-disciplinary approach of complementary skill sets.
Peter Wu, Steve Mildenhall and Jim Guzscza will delve into the specific body of knowledge, technical skills and methodologies identified to qualify for a certified specialist credential in predictive analytics. This certification will include a requirement for insurance domain as well as data science and predictive modeling knowledge, including data concepts and data skills (structured/unstructured, sampling, classifying, and queries), data exploration and visualization tools, programming tools, predictive models using OLS and GLM, machine/statistical learning and other techniques and methodologies.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
David Terne
Panelists:
James Guszcza, Stephen Mildenhall, Robert Miccolis, Wayne Fisher, Ann Conway, Cheng-Sheng Peter Wu
Surprise, Surprise - The Next “Big One” Might Just Be a Casualty Catastrophe!
Although casualty catastrophes represent two of the three most costly insurance events ever experienced, the industry devotes relatively little attention to these risks, especially in comparison with property cats. Even those insurance managers who recognize the casualty cat exposure tend to think that the unpredictability of these losses makes them too hard to describe and quantify. This session will introduce how casualty cats are being modeled and that reasonable estimates of the dimensions, magnitude and even the likely drivers of these losses can be developed. The goal of this session is to encourage greater focus on this critical risk.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
David Terne
Panelists:
Stefan Holzberger, Stephen D'Arcy, Jessica Schular, Rachel Abramovitz, James Blinn
Strategies to Manage Reputational and Conduct Risk Around the World
The challenges around managing reputational and conduct risk around the world keep increasing. Insurers deal with pressures from NGOs, the press, regulators and other government authorities. In light of numerous product failures, regulatory attitudes, particularly in Europe, are changing and practices that were accepted are now being challenged. Via interactive case studies this session will look at some strategies that insurers can employ to help manage these risks with a focus on property casualty insurance products and underwriting. Sessions will focus on:
Evaluating product characteristics (design and distribution) for reputational risk: how does one understand the reputational risk inherent in a product?
Managing reputational risk as part of the underwriting process: how does one evaluate who one should do business with, and on what terms.
Reducing reputational risk through improvements in customer experience: how does one improve profits and reduce risk by focusing on customer centricity?
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
David Terne
Panelists:
Daniel Roth, William Von Seggern, Stephen Wilcox
RMAD disclosures in the statement of actuarial opinion: An analysis of the evidence
We review the statements of actuarial opinion (SAOs) for the largest property and casualty insurers in the US and examine the required disclosures that are tied to the risk of material adverse deviation (RMAD). This session gives actuaries an understanding of the actual disclosures, thresholds and bases used by actuaries in the 2013 SAOs. The aim of this study is to begin a discussion on what factors should be considered when selecting an RMAD threshold for a specific insurer.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
David Terne
Panelists:
Kevin Ahlgrim, Erich Brandt, Greg Fears
Reserving in Uncertain Economic Conditions - Compare and contrast California WC and Argentina Auto
"Reserving during changing economic conditions, such as high inflation, is particularly complicated when there is a lag to pay claims. We investigate two markets that have both features - and compare and contrast the environment and methods applied in both markets to estimate unpaid losses. We show that the standard development factor method does not work under changing economic conditions, and explore methods used in 2 jurisdictions that initially appear to be very different, but in fact have a lot in common.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
David Terne
Panelists:
Alejandro Ortega, Marcela Granados, Tony Milano
Incorporating Predictive Analytics in Reserving: Why and How?
Increased use of predictive analytics in pricing is a widely accepted practice, with accepted and recognized value. This is not necessarily the case in reserving, however. In this session, we point out how potential problems in reserving could be flagged by better analytics, which could avoid real business problems. We show this in the context of workers' compensation and pension funding, noting surprising similarities, despite these two being substantially different lines of actuarial work. Specifically, we note that workers' compensation policies with high deductibles reserving practices should take into account credit standing of the insured firm, and that there is similarity to public pensions, where a plan sponsor not funding the plan fully is a negative credit event, but the balance sheet is not adjusted for it. These similar phenomena could be viewed as "shadow reinsurance" arrangements, where reinsurers' credit standing is not shown in the balance sheet to the detriment of the economic performance of the business entity.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Aaron Koch
Panelists:
Gary Wang, Krzysztof Ostaszewski, James Jones
Recognizing Trends and Managing Risk in Tomorrow's Insurance Market
Increased use of predictive analytics in pricing is a widely accepted practice, with accepted and recognized value. This is not necessarily the case in reserving, however. In this session, we point out how potential problems in reserving could be flagged by better analytics, which could avoid real business problems. We show this in the context of workers' compensation and pension funding, noting surprising similarities, despite these two being substantially different lines of actuarial work. Specifically, we note that workers' compensation policies with high deductibles reserving practices should take into account credit standing of the insured firm, and that there is similarity to public pensions, where a plan sponsor not funding the plan fully is a negative credit event, but the balance sheet is not adjusted for it. These similar phenomena could be viewed as "shadow reinsurance" arrangements, where reinsurers' credit standing is not shown in the balance sheet to the detriment of the economic performance of the business entity.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Nataliya Loboda
Panelists:
Jessica Leong, Blake Berman, Jerry Theodorou, Susan Bermender
Actuarial Lone Rangers: What to Do When the Nearest Fellow is (Hundreds of) Miles Away
Working as a solo company actuary and wondering if there are others in a similar position who perhaps face similar issues? Don't want to work for yourself but thinking it might be interesting to find an employer who valued your services more highly? Wondering what it would be like to get away from a big, bureaucratic environment? Come hear from others who have made the leap and learn from their experiences.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Josh Fishman
Panelists:
Brant Wipperman, Melanie Pennington, Meyer Lehman
Purple Haze: Marijuana Legalization and the Impacts on Insurance
This session will discuss the impact of marijuana legalization in Washington and other states on the insurance industry. The session will start with a brief history of prohibition/legalization of marijuana. This will be followed by the interaction between Federal and State authorities. The session will then discuss how legal marijuana and its effects are currently insured in the marketplace. Next, a discussion on the impacts to workers compensation medical costs will be discussed. This will be followed by Q&A from the audience.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Josh Fishman
Panelists:
Carl Ashenbrenner, Paul Ruiz, Marshall Gilinsky
Presenting Your Data Graphically
Presenting data graphically can help to more effectively communicate your message. The physical layout of the graphics can enhance or inhibit your ability to communicate, or can even mislead your audience. In this session, we will cover best practices for representing data graphically, showing both good and bad examples, and discussing why the good examples are superior.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Josh Fishman
Panelists:
Brian Mullen, Aaron Hillebrandt
Predictive Modeling: Tips for Data Scientists and Actuaries and How to Implement a Predictive Model
In this session we explore two key issues. First, Kevin Bingham and Michael Green will provide helpful tips on how actuaries and data scientists can apply data analytics to solve their toughest business challenges. Tips include framing the business problem, explain ability vs. "the perfect model lift", choosing the right variables, data wrangling, bringing models to life, getting outside your comfort zone, red flags and warning signs, and more.
Next, Ridhima Handa and Jessica Leong will talk about one of the most important things to consider when you're building a model - implementation. Do you ascribe to the ""If you build it, they will come"" theory of model building? What have your experiences been with IT, claims, underwriters and actuaries when trying to build and deploy a model? This session will look past the statistics and discuss ways to ensure that models are effectively deployed, accepted and executed.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Chris Najim
Panelists:
Kevin Bingham, Michael Greene, Jessica Leong, Erin Olson, Ridhima Handa
Modelling Tail Variance
Variance
Estimating the Distribution in the Tail
Estimating the parameters of a loss distribution is handled well using the MLE method.
In insurance we find that most empirical loss distributions have a fatter tail then indicated by the MLE method.
A solution from Extreme Value Theory is very useful here. We fit the losses to a distribution, and then select a different distribution for the tail.
The proposed method is useful for 1) identifying where the tail begins and 2) selecting parameters for the tail.
In practice, this method is useful when estimating economic capital for different reinsurance structures, a component in the capital calculation under Solvency II regulations, and also for adjusting losses for individual account pricing.
The Weighted CoTVaR Method of Capital Allocation: A practical approach for using capital models to drive decision making within your organization
This presentation will serve as a practitioners guide for turning an existing capital model into an engine for analyzing business decisions. The speaker will discuss the theory and practice behind the weighted CoTVaR approach to capital allocation – including selecting Co-TVaR points, scenario testing, and comparing strategic options in a RORAC framework.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rachel Abramovitz
Panelists:
Martin King, Alejandro Ortega, Blake Berman
Looking for the Next Earthquake Surprise: The Unknowns of Earthquakes
The past decade illustrates how unpredictable earthquake events can be. While earthquakes may defy attempts at prediction, we can look at earthquake hazards that can give rise to unanticipated events. Earthquakes can occur in surprising locations, generate larger ground motions than expected, or be foreshocks to a larger event. Earthquakes can also result in surprising secondary hazards, such as landslide, fire-following and tsunami, as well as unexpected infrastructure impacts. This panel examines where the awareness of earthquake hazards is low in the U.S., and importantly, where the economic risk of these events is poorly managed.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rachel Abramovitz
Panelists:
Michael Henk, Thomas Heaton
Integrating ERM for Maximum ROI
Come hear about a continuing journey in realizing the true value of ERM! What made this ERM program successful can be applied to other jurisdictions and countries.
ERM programs are developed for a variety of reasons, most notably legislation and/or regulatory requirements. Most organizations started from a place where risks are distributed across various portfolios, leading to a divergence of processes and masking the overall understanding of risks to the organization.
The literature suggests that ERM used to coordinate an organizational risk program reduces uncertainty and, over time, improves the prospects of success in terms of addressing financial and insurable hazards, as well as guiding strategy, operations and technology, reputation, and regulatory compliance within the organization.
Despite the absence of legislation and regulation, the public sector health in Canada has taken the horns of ERM. From a starting point of clinical adverse event management only a few years ago, Vancouver Coastal Health's ERM program is now integrated with strategic planning, corporate policy development, and Board prioritization setting processes.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rachel Abramovitz
Panelists:
Benoit Carrier, Ella Young
Health Care Reform - Where it's all Going
The Affordable Care Act was signed into effect in 2010 and while it has had significant impact on the number of ""uninsured"" Americans, its full impact on the property/casualty industry has not yet been felt. This session will discuss the implications of this legislation on both the P//C industry and its customers, both corporate and personal.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rachel Abramovitz
Panelists:
Ann Conway, John Ruser
Actuarial Involvement in Program Business
The intent for the presentation is to discuss the role actuaries can play in program business. It's a growing sector within the industry, more actuaries are being employed at MGAs, and carriers continue to increase emphasis on program business. This presentation will provide an overview of the program market, present challenges an actuary may face when analyzing new programs, as well as guidance for how to price a program.
Source:
2016 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Rachel Abramovitz
Panelists:
Isaac Mashitz, Art Zaremba
Intermediate Track 2: Fun With Bayes
In pricing reinsurance treaties, an actuary often works with loss development triangles from a client company. The client development data may not be fully credible, and needs to be blended with benchmark patterns. Bayesian models are an ideal tool for this blending problem. This session will discuss a conjugate family that can be easily implemented and interpreted for blending development patterns; a spreadsheet example will show how the calculations can be performed by the actuary.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Pascal Madiba
Panelists:
Raju Bohra, David Clark
Intermediate Track 1: Forensics of the Commercial Auto Cycle...And Where to Now
This session will tackle the anatomy of the Commercial Auto results over the last underwriting cycle, including analyzing the components underlying the loss ratio rises and reserve strengthening in the last few years. A look back, ex-ante, review of what we knew and how we might have known it earlier. The session will include both a quantitative and qualitative review of what happened, lessons learned, and what might happen in the current market.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Pascal Madiba
Panelists:
John Buchanan, Kevin Hilferty, Michael Mahoney
Understand and Quantify Systemic Risks in Casualty Reserves
What drives the reported loss development for the P&C industry? Where is the industry now with regards to factors that drive reserve position? This session will give an update on market cycle and reserve cycle statistics, focused on the Specialty Carrier segment. A detailed analysis on Commercial Auto Liability will serve as an example. The panel will discuss current issues affecting industry reserves including loss trend and price changes. This panel will also share a reinsurance underwriter’s perspective on the anticipation of the systemic risks to avoid large or continuous reserve increases as well as the implications on risk selection/portfolio management and pricing.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Pascal Madiba
Panelists:
William Wilt, David Clark, Christian Wirtz
Umbrella
The panelists will provide both underwriting and actuarial perspectives for evaluating an umbrella portfolio. The panelists will discuss coverage issues, ceding company pricing, rate monitoring and various loss evaluation techniques. The panel will also comment on data requirements for submissions and discuss underwriting, actuarial and claims audits.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Pascal Madiba
Panelists:
Ya Jia, Joshua Fishman, Gerald Deneen
Run-Off Business (Going, Going, and Still Going)
As insurance companies continue to refine their focus and strategy, this important aspect of the market provides an important outlet for providing finality to companies. Hear the latest on what is going on in the run-off business and how actuaries are involved.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Pascal Madiba
Panelists:
Bruce Fell, John Narvell, Leah Spivey
Research Corner
Hosted by the CAS Reinsurance Research Committee, the Research Corner is a forum to present preliminary reports on works in progress or recently completed. Research Corner participants can pose new problems and demonstrate innovative practical approaches. Individual investigators as well as representatives of research working parties and other groups are encouraged to participate. There is no need to preregister—“walk-in” speakers are most welcome, though advance notice is appreciated whenever possible. Speakers should plan on having ten to fifteen minutes to make their presentation. Attendees who would like to present their work during this session are invited to contact the moderator.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Pascal Madiba
Panelists:
Gerald Palisi
Presentation about Presentations: Creating the Dynamic Actuary
Most actuaries are regularly called upon to present complex concepts to an audience. The more that actuaries can improve upon their presentation skills, the more their visibility within an organization (primary company, reinsurer, consulting firm, brokerage house) increases accordingly. Today, actuaries are counted on to present actionable information to CEOs, CFOs, and board of directors, in addition to clients and peers at industry conferences.
Like many business people in general, some actuaries are averse to making presentations, or lack the experience or confidence to be effective speakers. This session will help actuaries devise a game plan for confronting the fear of "performing" in front of an audience. The goal is to help presenters build confidence by identifying individual strengths in communication skills and capitalizing on them for future presentations.
Specifically, this session will help individuals identify and meld their personal and professional strengths and traits to create themselves into the "Dynamic Actuary."
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Pascal Madiba
Panelists:
Bruce Fell, Robert Morand
Pardon the (Business) Interruption
Business income protection is of utmost importance for any insured suffering a catastrophic property loss. To fully understand business income coverage and the protection the policy extends, four key business income definitions and concepts must be covered up front: Business income; Period of restoration; Operational capability; and Dependent Property (CBI). This session will provide a thorough overview of these key concepts, and demystifying this coverage which is growing in importance and complexity. Additionally, the session will review several case studies highlighting specific issues relating to BI / CBI from a reinsurance perspective.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Pascal Madiba
Panelists:
Mark Westmoreland, Christopher Boggs, Rui Min
