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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Insurance M&A: Current Trends and an Actuary's Role when Performing Due Diligence
In this session, the presenters will provide an update on P&C insurance M&A trends, the typical responsibilities of an actuary performing a due diligence, including Fair Value estimates, and an actuary's interaction with others on the transaction from both the acquirer and target.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Matt Frazier
Panelists:
John Narvell, Peter Tomopoulos, Daniel Leff, Doug Sweeney
What's Happening to Interest Rates?
As some of the world's largest central banks begin to emerge from a monetary and fiscal experiment on an unprecedented scale, now is the time to worry about tailflation (extreme inflation outcomes). What should we expect in future: a continuation of the low, stable inflation of recent experience, the Great Inflation of the 1970s or deflation "Japan-style"?
This session will explore: (1) the main drivers behind inflation and deflation, namely monetary and fiscal policy, inflation expectations, demographics, scarce resources and technology (2) using these drivers to consider worked examples for several countries and assess whether high inflation or deflation is more likely, (3) ways to measure and model inflation risk, in particular the magnitude and duration of tailflation scenarios, dependencies with other risk factors, historical benchmarks.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Matt Frazier
Panelists:
Andrew Smith
Bermuda Economic Balance Sheet
Following the best-efforts Bermuda Economic Balance Sheet (EBS) filing, this session will provide a practitioner's prospective on the EBS requirements and how the guidance is being interpreted and how companies are complying with the BMA's EBS provisions. This session will cover pitfalls, challenges and allow an open forum to discuss the various approaches taken to conform with the BMA's guidance.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Damon Lay
Panelists:
Alejandra Nolibos, Stuart Hayes, Ashley Wohler
Reserving War Stories
Have you faced a challenging or an almost impossible reserve situation? You are not alone! Hear from experienced actuaries and their real life stories on their challenging reserving situations and how they navigated the turbulent waters. Bring your challenges along and discover some possible ways to tackle them.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
William Ayscue
Panelists:
Michael Angelina, Patricia Teufel, Chandrakant Patel, Richard Lino
Catch the Mistakes a Witness Makes
This session will offer snippets of questions and testimony of an imaginary actuarial deposition. Some will be done well and some will be done poorly. Live polling along with commentary from volunteers in the audience will critique the performance of the witness and spark discussion with the expert panel. Audience participation is encouraged!
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
William Ayscue
Panelists:
Charles Cook, Joseph Herbers, Michael Toothman, Deborah King, Andrew Gifford
Operating Manual for a Witness Chair
An expert panel of actuaries and an attorney discuss guidelines for witnessing, including positive suggestions and warnings. Come away with valuable insights, such as 'never get sworn in without thorough preparation by your attorney'; 'keep your temper at all times, even when a lawyer tries to rile you up during cross examination'; 'give your attorney 5-10 seconds to object before answering'; 'just answer the question, never volunteer'; and many more. Practice your skills by critiquing the witness in the mock deposition immediately following this session.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
William Ayscue
Panelists:
Charles Cook, Joseph Herbers, Michael Toothman, Deborah King, Andrew Gifford
Guidance from the ABCD
What does The Actuarial Board for Counseling and Discipline (ABCD) do and how is it structured?
This session, presented by John Purple, a former ABCD member, will provide an overview of the ABCD and its two main roles: responding to actuaries' request for guidance on professional issues and considering complaints about possible violations of the actuarial Code(s) of Professional Conduct. John will review last year's report on the ABCD's activities and provide case studies.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
William Ayscue
Panelists:
John Purple, Eric Hornick
Keynote Address: Climate Change Risk and Insurance
The impact of climate change on the insurance sector is expected to be broad and deep, affecting companies' revenues, investments, overall profitability, and, for some insurers, their financial stability. Concerned about climate risks to insurers, regulatory oversight bodies, including the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) in the U.S. and the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority in the U.K. have outlined three major categories of climate-related threats to the sector:
Physical impact risks from climate change due to evolving weather patterns and sea-level rise resulting in economic damages and loss;
Legal liability risks from climate litigation as a result of a wide range of issues including environmental liability, directors and officers liability, physical damage and loss, and subrogation;
Transitional and investment risks from a broad group of impacts to assets and as the world moves away from fossil fuel energy sources including oil, gas, and coal.
Regarding physical impact risks, property insurers do not yet have a complete understanding of how climate change will likely drive higher claims, and possibly cause certain property and business interruption risks to become uninsurable. But the insurance sector, including catastrophe risk modeling firms, is making progress in how to effectively integrate changing weather patterns and sea-level rise into their models to better characterize the impact climate change may have on insured losses. With regard to legal liability risks (or the casualty side of property and casualty insurance), legal experts are monitoring and analyzing developments and the industries' collective understanding of climate litigation continues to evolve. Insurers appear to be paying close attention to this emerging risk category.
On the issue of investment risk, insurers and the industry's regulators are in the early stages of developing the expertise, insights, and strategies required to assess the threat of climate change to insurance company assets. Of great relevance to insurers' energy sector investments, the future direction of climate and energy policy is now clearer than ever before. In December 2015 the Paris Agreement--a break-through international climate change accord aimed at limiting warming to well below two degrees Celsius--was endorsed by 196 nations and is expected to significantly accelerate the worldwide energy transformation.
This keynote presentation will offer attendees insights relative to the:
History and latest developments on insurer climate risk regulation and disclosure;
Latest scientific information on climate change and its anticipated impacts;
Current and prospective risks of climate change to property/casualty insurers;
How the insurance industry is responding to climate risks; and
What the 2015 Paris Agreement means for the insurance sector.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Featured Speaker
Panelists:
Anthony Bustillo, Cynthia McHale
Setting Natural Catastrophe Reserves using Weather Forensic data
Immediately after a natural catastrophe event occurs, actuaries (along with claims staff) are often asked to set up an initial estimate of the ultimate claims from that event. With recent technological advances, weather forensic data, available shortly after the event occurs, can be used to help estimate the amount of damage at any location within a portfolio of in-force business. This session will explore the science underlying this process, and provide some examples of how this process has actually been used.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Hoi Leung
Panelists:
Howard Kunst, Curtis McDonald
Microinsurance: How it Works, and Ways to Become Involved
The session will provide an overview of what microinsurance is, the target market for microinsurance products, and the key players operating in the market. Josh will share his experiences working on insurance initiatives at the International NGO, Mercy Corps, including the creation of a specialized reinsurance company, "MiCRO", focusing on microinsurance products in Central America. Jeff will present an overview of the recently launched book "Actuaries in Microinsurance". The presentation will focus on one section of the book "How to find work and volunteer microinsurance opportunities".
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Hoi Leung
Panelists:
Josh Ling, Jeff Blacker
Actuarial Issues with Ride Sharing Exposure
Innovations such as Uber, Lyft, and other ride sharing businesses have changed the automobile insurance markets. Insurance exposure for ride sharing and home sharing needed to be evaluated, contract language modified, policies priced and other insurance regulatory requirements needed to be considered. During the early stage of business development the actuaries working with this exposure needed to be innovative in developing pricing programs to meet the needs of these new markets. Now loss experience from these programs are beginning to emerge and evaluating the unpaid claims related to this business will prove to be equally challenging. This panel will discuss the actuarial challenges related to this new category of exposure and the innovative ideas actuaries are using to evaluate the risk.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Frank Chang
Panelists:
Francois Morissette, Laura Maxwell, Christopher Walker
Trends in Medical Malpractice Insurance
Is medical professional liability the same as it was last year? In this session, we will explore qualitative characteristics that actuaries need to consider in the evolving health care market: providers service changes, entity coverage, loss ratio by specialty and other. Questions from the audience are strongly encouraged!
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Frank Chang
Panelists:
Jeremy Pecora, Sarah Krutov
Insurance and the Rise of the Drones
This session approaches the emerging topic of drone use from technical, operational, and insurance perspectives, and participants will learn about the following topics:
Past, present, potential future uses of drones
Drones accidents
Drone law and regulation in the United States
Potential legal issues arising from the operation of drones
Drones and insurance underwriting and coverage issues
The audience will come away with a well-rounded understanding of drones and insurance that will allow them to take their next steps in using and insuring drones.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Frank Chang
Panelists:
Rachel Dolsky, Anthony Mormino, Richard Wlezien
What to Do When the IRS Comes Knocking? Loss Reserve Deductions and Other Tax Issues for P&C Actuaries
This panel will focus on federal income tax issues that are of interest to P&C actuaries. In 2013, Acuity Insurance successfully defended its actuarially determined loss reserves as "fair and reasonable" against an IRS challenge, in an important case in the U.S. Tax Court. The session will include perspectives from a current IRS actuary, from an actuary who advised Acuity and an attorney who represented Acuity in the court case, as well as a former branch chief of insurance for the IRS who was central to the IRS's efforts in this area. The panel will also discuss recent cases regarding the definition of insurance for taxation purposes, and other current P&C insurance tax issues where actuarial issues are front and center.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Frank Chang
Panelists:
Lawrence White, Susan Forray, Richard Riley, Sheryl Flum
Setting the Uncollectible Reinsurance Reserve under the coming new FASB requirements
Current practice for uncollectible reinsurance reserve setting varies across the industry. Some companies set these reserves only for known impairments, i.e., only with regard to reinsurers known to be financially vulnerable. This is known in the accounting world as the "incurred loss" model. Others set theses reserves anticipating the ultimate amount to be uncollected (known as the "expected loss" model). New FASB guidance expected to be finalized 2Q2016 would require the expected loss model for all US GAAP filers, probably starting in 2019. This will require a change in practice for those currently using the incurred loss model.
This session will discuss various approaches that can be used to estimate ultimate uncollectible reinsurance amounts, including both credit amounts (inability to pay) and dispute amounts. It will also discuss the various data needs of the different methods so that those transitioning to the expected loss model can start collecting the needed data.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Frank Chang
Panelists:
Ralph Blanchard
RMAD Disclosures in the SAO: An Insightful Discussion
Speakers will present some results of their analysis of about 1000 SAOs from 2013. They reviewed data one year later and have interesting things to report about those companies that already breached their materiality threshold, etc. They plan to moderate this session and have recruited panelists from (a) academia (Kevin Ahlgrim, a Finance Professor from Illinois State University, (b) an insurance company auditor (Andrew Rouse, from Plante & Moran) and (c) an appointed actuary (Daniel Johnson, from COUNTRY Financial) to actively engage in discussion of key issues relevant to this topic.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Frank Chang
Panelists:
Kevin Ahlgrim, Erich Brandt, Gregory Fears, Daniel Johnson, Andrew Rouse
Living the Dream: Regulating Firms Under Solvency II
In this session, the speakers will look at how the they and their colleagues at the UK Regulator – the PRA – intend to monitor property and casualty reserves in the new, Solvency II, world. The reserving basis under SII is new, as is the reporting. This presentation will cover the quantitative metrics and qualitative information they will be using and also look more widely at the process of regulation in this brave new world.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Tucker
Panelists:
Stefan Claus, Cameron Heath
Embedded Value for Property and Casualty Companies
A supplementary financial reporting metric, has been popular with European (and Asian and to a certain extent Canadian) life insurers for a number of years. Many life companies disclose their embedded values (EV) and their analysis of change in EV annually. There are a number of other companies that calculate EV's for internal purposes only. EV's have been less popular with insurers headquartered in the US but recently some large US-based insurers have started to implement EV reporting. Some of these companies have extended or would like to extend EV to their P&C business.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Tucker
Panelists:
Dominique Lebel, Lise Hasegawa
Accounting for Large Deductible Programs — Changes on the Horizon
Increased scrutiny on carrier practices with respect to the treatment of large and mega deductible accounts is driven by insurers' uneven management and oversight of the collateral required in deductible programs, coupled with deteriorating underwriting results. The financial risk behind large deductible programs has been studied extensively by the industry and regulators. Currently there is debate as to whether or not insurance company accounting treatment for deductibles should change. This panel will discuss the common pitfalls to managing deductible programs, root causes, impacts and solutions, followed by an overview of the proposed changes to the accounting rules being discussed, with the associated pros and cons.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tim Tucker
Panelists:
Barbara Murray, Lisa Slotznick, Ralph Marinello
Reserves Call Paper Program: Session 1
Using the Hayne MLE Model: A Practitioner's Guide
The paper will illustrate the practical implementation of the Hayne MLE modeling framework as a powerful tool for estimating a distribution of unpaid claims by reviewing the Hayne MLE modeling framework using a standard notation. Then it covers a number of practical data issues and addresses the diagnostic testing of the model assumptions. Next it will explore a variety of enhancements to the basic framework to allow the models to address other issues related to reserving and pricing risk. Finally, since no single model is perfect, ways to combine or credibility weight the Hayne MLE model results with various other models are explored in order to arrive at a "best estimate" of the distribution. This is similar to how a deterministic best estimate is generally derived in practice, so ways for the practitioner to correlate models by segment in order to simulate aggregate results are discussed.
The Actuary & Enterprise Risk Management: Integrating Reserving Variability
The development of a wide variety of reserve variability models has been primarily driven by the need to quantify reserve uncertainty. This quantification can serve as the basis for satisfying a number of Solvency II requirements in Europe, can be used to enhance Own Risk Solvency Assessment (ORSA) reports, and is often used as an input to DFA or Dynamic Risk Models, to name but a few. Moving beyond quantification, the purpose of this paper is to explore other aspects of reserve variability which allow for a more complete integration of these key risk metrics into the larger Enterprise Risk Management framework. This paper will primarily use a case study to discuss and illustrate the process of integrating the output from periodic reserve and reserve variability analysis into the enterprise risk management process. Consequences of this approach include the production of valuable performance indicators and an increase in the lines of communication between the actuarial function and other insurance functional departments, both of which are valuable to management. By expanding the regular reserving process to include regular variability analysis and expanding the dialogue with management, the actuary can greatly contribute to the understanding of risks related to claim management within an enterprise.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Philip Borba
Panelists:
Louise Francis, Mark Shapland
The Economic Capital Conversation with Company Leadership
A robust risk capital model can be expensive and labor intensive. After it's run, what's the message to leaders of the organization? Does your reporting fall flat? Hone in on ways to discuss model output that encourage a meaningful risk conversation.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Philip Borba
Panelists:
Derek Freihaut, Blake Berman, Robert Zehr
Enterprise Risk Management in Mergers & Acquisitions
Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has been widely used in many aspects of company management, strategic planning, corporate governance etc. How is it incorporated in mergers and acquisitions? ERM can play vital roles at different phases and for different stakeholders. In the phase of due diligence, implementation or ongoing maintenance, ECM can potentially help acquiring companies avoid unexpected liability issues and assisting target companies maximize sale value, help keep control of newly acquired business, monitor and manage the risks. The speakers will present several examples, which may cover not only insurance companies but also other industries.
The effect of ECM in mergers and acquisitions are broadly threefold. First, it relates to the effect of the merger on the companies involved, in terms of the underlying reasons for the action taken by the companies; the policy followed in the aftermath of their operations being merged, or at least controlled by the new entity; the longer-term outcome, to see how far the initial expectations and the plans formulated were realised in practice, thus justifying, from the business perspective, at least the initial decision to merge. Secondly, the effect on employees is of concern, in terms of the extent to which the merger was accompanied by job losses because of the rationalisation of operations or a concentration of activities on particular markets; the extent to which employee representatives were involved in the decisions leading up to the merger and/or were consulted regarding the consequences for the workforce; the actions taken by the company to alleviate the effect of job losses on employees; how far the merger led ultimately to business expansion because of a strengthening of the operation concerned and the creation of additional jobs. Thirdly, the wider effects on the economy are of concern, with regard to the extent to which the merger led to an improvement of the performance of the sector concerned in the country, or region, in question, and how far this benefited the national or local economy.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Joseph Boor
Panelists:
Matthew Peters, Blake Berman, Michael McComis
Reinventing the Triangle: New Techniques in Advanced Reserving (Reserves Call Papers)
An Extension to the Cape Cod Method with Credibility Weighted Smoothing
This paper uses the Kalman Filter to automatically smooth the loss ratios based on the amount of credibility inherent in the data in a manner that is robust and that is consistent with the Cape Cod method. It is shown how this method can be thought of as a credibility weighting between the Cape Cod and Chain Ladder techniques, each of which are possible at the two extremes. It is then shown how external predictive information, such as the state of the economy or the insurance cycle, can be incorporated to help produce more accurate results. Simulation results are presented that illustrate the error reduction this method can provide to both historical years and to the latest year.
Hierarchical Compartmental Models for Loss Reserving
This paper proposes a triangle based stochastic reserving framework for parsimoniously describing insurance claims generation, reporting and settlement processes with intuitive parameters. Deterministic compartmental models are explored as extensible tools to describe and project the insurance claims process using a small number of parameters, including a measure of case reserve robustness. A Schedule-P reserving case study illustrates the application of a nonlinear hierarchical ("mixed-effects") framework to fit compartmental models to outstanding and cumulative paid claims development triangles, simultaneously. This allows one or more of the claims process parameters to vary by claims cohort in accordance with a statistical distribution. An optional Bayesian implementation facilitates the robust incorporation of external information and judgment into the projection of reserve uncertainty. The result is a flexible stochastic reserving framework, with benefits including the ability to explicitly account for reporting and/or settlement rate changes, make inferences about components of the claims process and scenario test future process changes using information gathered across the business.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Dale Yamamoto
Panelists:
Julie Lederer, Uri Korn, Jake Morris
What does the Bootstrap Trap?
The need to quantify reserving risk has driven renewed interest of stochastic loss prediction methods, specifically the over-dispersed-Poisson bootstrap method. Like all models, the ODPB relies on parameters to be estimated and assumptions about the structure of the loss development process. Failure to consider these deeper sources of uncertainty can result in prediction intervals that are too narrow, with subsequent losses too frequently exceeding stated percentiles. This workshop explores the chief limitations of the ODPB method and considers how prediction intervals can be refined more fully to capture the wide spectrum of uncertainty in reserving.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Patricia Guinn
Panelists:
Joshua Merck, Andrew Smith
Self-Assembling Loss Reserving Models
This presentation addresses the area of detailed stochastic claim modelling, in which the objective is to model all features of claim experience apparent in the data. These might include superimposed inflation, legislative changes, changing development patterns, etc. The modelling might be applied to many forms of data, e.g. incremental paid losses, counts of reported claims, settled claims, etc.
The formulation of such models typically requires the contribution of substantial amounts of time by skilled statisticians. It is therefore time-consuming and expensive. The session considers how the formulation process may be automated by the application of regularized regression modelling.
Source:
2016 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Bob Wolf
Panelists:
Greg Taylor, Gary Venter, Grainne McGuire
