Not so Black & White - Grey Swans in Our Cat Modeling World
The insurance industry uses Gray Swan events (very extreme, but foreseeable, events) in catastrophe models to manage several aspects of their property portfolio. But since we have never witnessed a Gray Swan event, statistical modelers must generate these types of events for their catalogs using extrapolation from historical data. Do our models accurately represent these types of events? This presentation will examine whether statistically modeled Gray Swan events make sense from a meteorological perspective in terms of intensity, geographic size, and other key tropical cyclone parameters.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Pascal Madiba
Panelists:
Mark Westmoreland, Mark Bove
Marine & Energy Reinsurance
This session will discuss developments and considerations in the Marine and Energy markets from both primary and reinsurance perspectives. It will also feature an exploration into the Tianjin Explosions, a multifaceted loss event that highlights many elements of Marine business.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Pascal Madiba
Panelists:
Helen Bradley, Daniel Jaeger, Andreas Graham
I'm a Cat Model: You Know What I Mean...
In our data-driven world, the accelerated evolution of catastrophe models is dynamically impacting a company’s ever-changing view of risk. In this light, it is imperative to stay up-to-date on the goings-on in the Catastrophe Modeling world and the interconnection to a reinsurance actuary’s pricing, reserving, and risk management practices. In this session, we’ll review current developments in the natural catastrophe market including specific changes incorporated in vendor models given new data sources. Additionally, we’ll examine new advances in international cat modeling with a specific emphasis on revised data quality considerations. Lastly, we’ll present a fresh perspective on the systemic risk within catastrophe models and the changing impact of further model uncertainty on the risk management framework.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Pascal Madiba
Panelists:
Krista Lienau, Mark Westmoreland, Brandie Andrews, HongTao Wang, Adam Champion
Global Emerging/Evolving Risk
Early recognition and assessment of potential loss exposures from emerging risks can help carriers anticipate and prepare for underwriting and claims pitfalls, disruptive financial consequences, negative customer reaction, and other downstream ramifications. Understanding the loss potential as well as growth opportunity of emerging risks is critical and successfully doing so will better position insurers to meet the needs of today's policyholders and the changing marketplace for years to come. In this session, we will explore the strategic context of global emerging risks and provide commentary and guidelines for ongoing risk monitoring and integration into enterprise planning by insurers. This session will also focus on potential exposures of several of the emerging issues of interest to the insurance industry including drones, marijuana, and the sharing economy.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Michael Brown
Panelists:
Barbara Russo, Trevor Leitch, Gerald Finley, Gerald Deneen
Property Risk Pricing: Changing the World, one Valuation at a Time
This session will describe the main takeaways from the recently jointly released IFoA/CAS GIRO white paper. This paper is being used as a reference document by primary companies, brokers, and reinsurers to highlight the need for capturing the most important data elements used by reinsurers and a deeper understanding of how each of the elements fit together. A case study approach will be taken to highlight the main takeaways, including the critical importance of properly assessing the valuations of the properties and various related rating variables.
We will also discuss the extension of these concepts to other lines of business.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Katie DeGraaf
Panelists:
John Buchanan, Christopher Boggs
NFIP Update: Initial Steps Toward Sharing US Flood Risk with the Private Sector
This panel will discuss recent and current FEMA activities related to sharing flood risk with the private sector. The panelists will present some of the modeling and analysis in the recently completed Flood Insurance Risk Studies mandated by the 2012 Biggert-Waters Act, as well as current FEMA plans and activities in pursuit of their first NFIP reinsurance placement.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Katie DeGraaf
Panelists:
Andy Neal, John Kulik, Raulina Wojtkiewicz
Economic Capital Modeling
A panel discussion on economic capital modeling from the perspectives of practitioners at an insurance company, a reinsurance company and a reinsurance broker.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Katie DeGraaf
Panelists:
Catherine Eska, Paul Silberbush, Ronald Wilkins, Subhayu Bose
Visualize It! Data and Analytics Visualization in Insurance
The visual representation of data, metrics and results can be a powerful communication device. A well-constructed graphic will emphasize key takeaways or influence business decisions. This session will cover visualization best practices and their application to actuarial concepts. In addition, the session will highlight Geographic Information System (“GIS”)'s ability to present spatial or geographic data. Finally, the session will consider technologies that exist for visualization and their respective merits.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Katie DeGraaf
Panelists:
Alice Underwood, Garrett Bradford, Daniel Jaeger
Casualty Risk - An Extreme Problem
One of the problems identified with Solvency II capital modelling are the extreme results: the modelled tails being consistently too “thin”. This session will cover two alternative methods of estimating more realistic tail scenarios. One method proposes modelling "events" rather than individual losses in order to properly capture correlation within an event. The other will introduce a science-based method of identifying emerging risks and estimating casualty tail losses.
Source:
2016 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Katie DeGraaf
Panelists:
Michael Cane, Albert Zhou, Neil Hyatt, Jessica Schular
Long-term Sustainable Value as Complement of Market Value
Source:
2016 Regional Affiliate - ARECA
Type:
Affiliate Meeting
Panelists:
Shaun Wang
Insurance Rating from S&P Perspective
Source:
2016 Regional Affiliate - ARECA
Type:
Affiliate Meeting
Panelists:
Philip Chung
Modeling Typhoon with Japan as an Example
Source:
2016 Regional Affiliate - ARECA
Type:
Affiliate Meeting
Panelists:
Margaret Joseph
Overview of APAC CAT Perils and Management
Source:
2016 Regional Affiliate - ARECA
Type:
Affiliate Meeting
Panelists:
Nigel Winspear
De-Tariffication: Lessons from across the Pacific and the English Channel
Source:
2016 Regional Affiliate - ARECA
Type:
Affiliate Meeting
Panelists:
Roger Hayne
Emerging Analytical Toolset: Applications in Reinsurance
Source:
2016 Regional Affiliate - ARECA
Type:
Affiliate Meeting
Panelists:
Devin Tey, Fui Shiah
The Role of Non-life Actuaries
Source:
2016 Regional Affiliate - ARECA
Type:
Affiliate Meeting
Panelists:
Matthew Maguire
Capital Modeling
Source:
2016 Regional Affiliate - ARECA
Type:
Affiliate Meeting
Panelists:
Michael Owen
ARECA Update
Source:
2016 Regional Affiliate - ARECA
Type:
Affiliate Meeting
Panelists:
Tony Gu
What’s Happening at the CAS
Source:
2016 Regional Affiliate - ARECA
Type:
Affiliate Meeting
Panelists:
Roger Hayne
Master Class: Managing Value and Capital in Insurance
Creating value is challenging in any highly competitive industry: a daily battle to capture market share, defend margins and improve expenses. Managing value in insurance and banking is even more challenging due to the unique role that risk and capital play in the economics of the business. Whereas most industrial corporations actively avoid risk, there can be no return to shareholders – and no satisfied customers – if insurers avoid risk, and taking risks requires capital. In insurance and banking, risk and capital management and value management are synonymous.
The role of the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) and Chief Risk Officer (CRO) have evolved and adapted to this economic reality. Modern finance and risk functions now have substantial influence on strategy and operations and, through these, the value of their firms. This influence comes in part from being a business partner and in part through the activities directly within their responsibility.
This Masterclass is intended as a practical but theoretically grounded overview for how finance and risk professionals can better manage capital and value in insurance and banking. The course itself is structured around three broad themes in four sessions: Better Information – Measuring Value; Better Insights – Managing Value; and Better Decisions – Capital, Balance Sheet and Risk Management.
Seminar participants will received a signed copy of Tom’s book, Value and Capital Management
Source:
2016 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
Workshop
Panelists:
Thomas Wilson
Applying ERM Techniques to Enhance Cyber Security: Twitter Case Study
Enterprise Risk Management programs are commonly used to enhance the sophistication of risk-reward decision making at the highest levels of an organization, using an integrated approach to sort out key threats from all sources. However, leading organizations are also using ERM tools and techniques to enhance decision making at the traditional silo risk management level. In this session, we explore a case study of how Twitter successfully applied an advanced yet practical ERM approach to enhance its cyber security. We begin with an introduction on global cyber security, followed by a discussion of Twitter’s approach to cyber threat management and investigations. We then discuss three key advantages of the value-based ERM approach, how Twitter applied value-based ERM tools and techniques to its cyber security risk management, and the results of this case study.
Source:
2016 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Katie DeGraaf
Panelists:
Sim Segal, Jed Isaman, Ross Graber
SIFI or Not, Here They Come: Impacts of New Fed Regulatory Scrutiny
In this session, attendees will hear first-hand accounts from three insurers – AIG, Prudential, and MetLife – who have recently been designated as Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) by the new Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), established by the Dodd-Frank Act in the wake of the financial crisis. Each insurer will describe their experience to date, including (a) initial gap analysis comparing current state to expected regulatory requirements; (b) steps put in place to remediate any identified gaps; (c) insurer reaction/approach to addressing the SIFI designation, which range from acceptance to litigation; (d) nature and extent of the actual regulatory requirements imposed; (d) challenges of educating regulators on the inappropriateness of applying banking rules to insurers; and (e) costs (and some benefits) to the business. Insurers will also share their thoughts on how Fed regulation is likely to filter down from SIFIs to smaller insurers, and the implications.
Source:
2016 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Katie DeGraaf
Panelists:
Jing Huang, Robert Boyle, Brian Peters, Michael Bohm, Paul Cardon
ERM at Non-Corporate Entities: U.N. Case Study
Implementing ERM at a typical corporate entity has its challenges. However, for an organization that is a non-corporate entity, large, global, or complex, ERM becomes even more difficult. In this session, we explore a case study of how the United Nations – arguably one of the most complex, large, global non-corporate entities – addressed the challenge of implementing an ERM program. Stefano Losi of the U.N. will give an overview of the U.N. culture and organizational structure, discuss the special challenges it faced in designing and launching its ERM program, and report on progress to date, including a list of key risks the U.N. faces (as shown in its latest public report).
Source:
2016 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
General Session
Moderators:
Tamar Gertner
Panelists:
Stefano Losi
Operational Risk Scenarios Analysis: A Structured Approach
Quantifying operational risk has always been a challenge for risk management professionals. Even with the availability of good quality data, modelers and risk management professionals have struggled with this activity. Scenario Analysis has been the approach used by some to overcome the limitations posed by data driven approaches by incorporating sound business judgment in quantifying risk exposures. Structured Scenario Analysis (SSA) attempts to make the estimation process more objective and transparent and thus represents an advancement over the traditional approach to conducting scenario analysis.
This session will outline the approach used to create a Structured Scenario Analysis program at TIAA. The session will cover the following topics:
? Operational risk overview.
? Quantifying operational risk: approaches and supervisory guidance.
? Scenario analysis: traditional vs. structured.
? Structured scenario analysis: approach, illustration, lessons learned.
Source:
2016 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Tamar Gertner
Panelists:
David Paul, Andrew Kramer, Karthik Ramakrishnan
Connective Tissue: Linking Enterprise-Level Risk Appetite and Day-to-Day Risk Management
As insurers have embarked on the implementation of ERM programs, they have recognized the need for clarity around the organization’s appetite for taking risks. This presentation will articulate the concepts of the risk appetite framework, defining risk in the context of the mission statement of the company. In addition a link between risk tolerances and risk limits will be provided through the introduction of the risk budget concept. A case study that illustrates how risk tolerances, defined at the enterprise risk level, are connected to risk limits employed for day-to-day local management decisions through a near-real-time risk monitoring framework will be also described.
Source:
2016 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Peter Tomopoulos
Panelists:
Emmanuel Bardis, Peter Schwanke, Sandra Ross