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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Risk and Return Considerations in Ratemaking: Calculating the Profit Provision
After you have the projected loss costs and expenses, the final step in deriving the indicated premium is to load in the underwriting profit provision. But what is the right number? This session will supply not one, but several answers to that question. It will survey different approaches, from those mandated by regulators to those used by corporate pricing actuaries for internal profitability analysis. The assumptions and parameter selections for each method will be discussed and the sensitivity of results to key parameters will also be explored. The session will have a practical focus with an emphasis on clarifying basic concepts and highlighting key distinctions between different methods.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Zack Schmiesing
Panelists:
Robert Wolf, Ira Robbin
Ratemaking, Predictive Modeling and Product Management: How Does it all Fit Within an ERM Framework?
Ratemaking, Predictive Modeling, and Product Management all require holistic collaboration to optimize rewards. Ineffective treatment in any of the three disciplines carry with it risk, both in silos and in collaboration. How does management of this process fit within the entire ERM structure of a company?
Join us for a discussion as we address the concept.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Zack Schmiesing
Panelists:
Peter Wu, Rita Zona
Allocating/Attributing Capital- A Hands-on Exercise- Part 2
A laptop is recommended for participation in this session.
Join us for part 2 of a hands-on, two-part technical session where the audience will be charged with an exercise in allocating capital to lines of business considering various methods. Participants will work in groups to make strategic recommendations based on their respective results from the exercise completed in part 1. This session will be a focus on role playing and discussion.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Zack Schmiesing
Panelists:
Robert Wolf
Allocating/Attributing Capital- A Hands-on Exercise- Part 1
A laptop is recommended for participation in this session.
Join us for part 1 of a hands-on, two-part technical session where the audience will be charged with an exercise in allocating capital to lines of business considering various methods. Participants will work in groups to make strategic recommendations based on their respective results. This session, part 1, will focus on the various methodologies discussed in the "Evolving History of Thought" session.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Zack Schmiesing
Panelists:
Robert Wolf
Cost of Capital and Capital Attribution - An Evolving History of Thought
This session will provide a historical primer on the subject and address past and current research of the practical ways in reflecting the cost of capital in ratemaking. This primer will discuss aspects as developed by Merton-Perold, Myers-Read, Mango's asset share model, and the RMK procedures. Also considered will be current research as it relates to how actual capital should perhaps be considered in percentile layers and/or traunches, based on the risk metrics considered. We have come a long way in ratemaking since using premium to surplus ratios of 30 years ago. Let's continue the evolution.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Zack Schmiesing
Panelists:
Robert Wolf, Glenn Meyers, Neil Bodoff
Augmenting Data Capture through Web and Document Scraping
Web-based data sources such as Yelp, Glassdoor.com, Better Business Bureau, and publicly available court records can used to draw insights about businesses and individuals. Insurers can systematically supplement the data collected through traditional methods with data collected via web scraping. These nontraditional sources can complement existing pricing and underwriting frameworks via the implementation of business rules. Alternate applications include using financial statement data to prepopulate new and renewal applications and to automate parts of the premium audit process. During this session we will provide an introduction to web and document scraping methods, review some common challenges and discuss application areas within the insurance industry.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Zack Schmiesing
Panelists:
Zubair Shams
Effectively Evaluating External Data
Data is at the core of the ratemaking process. By effectively leveraging new and innovative data sources, companies can out segment the competition and gain competitive advantage. However, anyone who has been through a data evaluation process knows that it is typically as simple as reading the label on the package, tossing it into the cart, and heading to checkout. It is not uncommon for data evaluations to take months and ultimately yielding results that are difficult to interpret.
In this session we will share some tips and tricks to make sure you have an efficient and effective data evaluation. There will be a focus on different statistical methods to quantify the business value of adding new data assets. This session will also use live polling so companies can better understand how they compare to their peers on topics like:
• How many new data sources do you typically evaluate in a year?
• How long does the typical evaluation last?
• What business lines benefit the most from the inclusion of external data?
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Drew Lawyer, Phil Hatfield, Adi Bar-lev
Actuarial Science vs. Data Science: Competing for Relevance
Data is the life blood of actuarial analysis. Today's technology is revolutionizing the amount of data available and the ways we can analyze it. Yet there is no material on the CAS syllabus on either data or the technology that supports it. For actuaries to participate in the Data Science revolution, they must become more data literate and tech savvy. The Data and Technology Working Party has researched what we think an actuary should know in four areas: 1. Data Science 2. Business Intelligence 3. Data Quality 4. Data Structures. This session will provide an overview of that material and make the case that actuaries need to understand it or risk being left in the new world of data and technology.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alice Yang
Panelists:
Louise Francis, Stephen Lowe, Christopher Monsour, Peter Bothwell, Mary Jo Kannon
Demystifying Data Quality Tools
Data quality is a primary concern when you perform an actuarial analysis or undertake a predictive modeling project. Top among your concerns would be to review the data for accuracy, reasonability, completeness and consistency. A valid question is: when you write programs to perform data quality checks, are you reinventing the wheel? Perhaps your organization has a commercially acquired data quality tool that can aid you, or perhaps acquiring one may be worth considering. This session provides explanations and examples of data quality functions such as data profiling, entity resolution, pattern analysis, etc., that commercially available data quality tools perform. Even if you or your employer choose not to purchase a data quality tool from a vendor, knowing the kinds of tasks these tools perform can increase your awareness of things to look for with regards to data quality.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alice Yang
Panelists:
Tracy Spadola, Hernan Medina, Joseph Izzo
Applying “Big Data” Analytics in the Insurance Sector
As the hype subsides and expectations begin to settle, leading insurers are now discovering tangible value from their big data analytics projects. During this presentation we will set out the tools and processes companies should have in place to expedite value discovery and minimize investment cost in their big data analytics capabilities.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alice Yang
Panelists:
Claudine Modlin, Lu Li, Rachael McNaughton
GIS for Actuaries: Hands-on Application
This two-part session is intended to introduce actuaries to the wonderful world of geographic information science (GIS). GIS can be used to visualize insurance data at a range of scales all the way down to the policy or location level. Additional applications include appending third-party data, enhancing analysis using geographic relationships, and the creation of customized or granular rating territories. This session will be a hands-on tutorial taught in ArcGIS for Desktop.
It is highly suggested that you attend DM-1 if you plan to attend DM-2. Sample datasets will be provided between DM-1 and DM-2 during lunch.
If you plan to attend the Hands-on session, you should bring a laptop running Window 7 or higher running ArcGIS for Desktop. The full software download and installation can take up-to an hour depending on your internet connection and the speed of your machine. Please follow the instructions below to download and install a trial copy of ArcGIS for Desktop. If you already have the latest version of ArcGIS Desktop, you are good to go!
In order to complete this process you will need Admin access your machine. The full system requirements can be found here:
http://desktop.arcgis.com/en/desktop/latest/get-started/system-requirements/arcgis-desktop-system-requirements.htm.
1. To begin your free 60-day trial and start the installation process, go here:
http://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/free-trial
2. Enter your information and create an account. Wait for a confirmation email to continue and follow the link in that email.
3. Once you log in, you should see the dialog box below. Select “GET THE APPS”.
4. On the next page, select the “DOWNLOAD” link under ArcMap. The full download is 860 MB. Copy the Authorization number to a text document for later use.
5. Run the installation file and follow the steps. It’s best to just select the default installation locations and install the “Complete” version with all software extensions.
6. When the installation is complete, the ArcGIS Administrator Wizard will appear. Select “Advanced (ArcInfo) Single Use” and then click on “Authorize Now”.
7. Select “I have installed my software and need to authorize it” and follow the instruction to authorize using the Internet. Enter your information and the authorization number when prompted. You do not need to authorize any extensions.
If you have any problems with these instruction or have additional questions, please contact me directly: Garrett Bradford (garrett.bradford@milliman.com)
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alice Yang
Panelists:
Garrett Bradford
GIS for Actuaries: Introduction to Geographic Information Systems
This two-part session is intended to introduce actuaries to the wonderful world of geographic information science (GIS). GIS can be used to visualize insurance data at a range of scales all the way down to the policy or location level. Additional applications include appending third-party data, enhancing analysis using geographic relationships, and the creation of customized or granular rating territories. This session will be a lecture on GIS basics such as data types, geocoding addresses, locating and using third-party data, cartographic representation, and simple geoprocessing workflows.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alice Yang
Panelists:
Garrett Bradford
State of Analytics for Commercial Lines Carriers
Now that most commercial carriers are utilizing predictive modeling for pricing and underwriting, this session will share other ways companies are leveraging their data assets across the organization. This session will also talk about some of the recent challenges in doing business that have led to this.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Anita Sathe
Panelists:
Brett Nunes, David Otto, Jamison Ihrke
Public Directors and Officers Predictive Modeling
The rapidly evolving pricing and claims environment for public company D&O insurance amplifies the value of flexibility in the development and maintenance of models for risk evaluation, pricing and reserving. To address this need, we have partnered to develop an industry predictive model for public directors and officers insurance. This session will provide an overview of the off-the-shelf model and the ability to customize for individual portfolios.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Vinu Kuriakose
Panelists:
Alejandra Nolibos, Will Frierson
The Cost of Misclassification in Commercial Lines
The current downward pressure in pricing of Commercial Insurance presents challenges for insurers to achieve their internal Return on Equity goals. Key to maximizing returns is to ensure accurate pricing at an individual account level which is achievable through accurate classification. This session will demonstrate how high quality data assists companies in meeting their ROE targets on a sustained basis. Topics include the impacts of misclassification in the following areas: exposure measures, ratemaking and modeling, workflows, reinsurance, regulation, and effective business processes.
We will present empirical evidence of the wide spread and significant degree of misclassification in the Commercial Insurance marketplace and demonstrate how this leads to Adverse Selection and/or Lost Market Share. A discussion of the solutions which have been successfully implemented and our views of emerging trends will ensue.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jeff DeTurris
Panelists:
Kristen Dardia Turner, Peter De Freitas
Flying Into the New World of Drones (Live Streaming)
Drones are everywhere in the news these days. And they will only become more common – and challenging! We'll start with a brief overview of what they are and why we use them, then move into the grey and evolving area of legislation and regulation. That will lead us into the insurance side of drones – underwriting issues and claims scenarios. We'll finish with a glimpse into the future and see if we can tell where the drones will take us.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
James Hollman
Panelists:
Anthony Mormino, Tim McCarthy, Laura Doherty
Small Business Rating Plans: Challenges and Innovations
While the small business insurance market is trending towards more automation and sophisticated rating, many insurers are not using the best tools to tap its potential, and are still relying heavily on underwriters' rating adjustments on most risks, which sap company resources and are often not consistently applied across policies. Further, many companies have been increasing the complexity of their BOP rating plans as they move away from heavy reliance on underwriters' schedule rating adjustments and put more emphasis on the manually derived rate when rating policies. This concurrent session will combine the expertise of two experts in small business rating to discuss their innovative approaches to addressing the challenges of the evolving small business market.
Christopher McKenna, Consulting Actuary with Towers Watson, will explore industry best practices for performing competitive analysis for BOP. Examples of rating plan enhancements that will be discussed include refined classification rating and exposure bases, and complex tier formulas. The current competitive environment and the industry shift to more sophisticated rating plans and away from behind-the-scenes adjustments has also put the importance of sound competitive analysis in the spotlight.
Su (Liu) Wash, Actuarial Analyst of Analytic Solutions at ISO, will discuss methods that take a more refined look at BOP risks, including pricing by peril or at a high level of geographic resolution. Furthermore, she will evaluate how the “Internet of Things” technologies used in personal lines could potentially enhance pricing and underwriting of BOP policies.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Brad Drew
Panelists:
Chris McKenna, Su Wash
Integrated Commercial Lines Predictive Modeling: Merging Qualitative and Quantitative Views
The interplay of models, rules, risk appetite, and field personnel knowledge is critical for a successful deployment of a predictive model to any part of the value chain. This is particularly true for commercial lines underwriting due to the latitude given to underwriters in applying schedule debits and credits and the resulting impact on premium.
In our session we will discuss typical challenges with an emphasis on active field involvement and participation throughout the process. The qualitative side will be illustrated with an industry case study narrative that speaks directly to the advantage of creating alignment of model scores, firing of rules, and quality of account knowledge as defined by the field. The quantitative side will illustrate the challenges of knowledge engineering and how to blend with data-driven decision making. The discussion will highlight choices made to incorporate field input and achieve "last mile" success.
The session is designed to feature a moderated dialog with the participation of an industry leading executive who is wrestling first-hand with the challenges of commercial lines modernization. Audience participation and active question & answer are encouraged.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Karin Rhoads
Panelists:
Gary Ciardiello, Pamela Sealand Reale, Christine Heiderich
Verisk's Commercial Lines Program Initiatives: Emerging Issues and Predictive Models from ISO and AIR
This session will explore several emerging issues as well as recent and proposed enhancements that Insurance Services Office "ISO" and AIR are making to their commercial lines insurance offerings. These enhancements General Sessionly fall into two broad categories: evaluation of emerging risk exposures, or applications of modeling to current or new rating plans.
Topics that may be covered include the following:
• Initiatives related to the development of private market solutions for Flood insurance including potential data sources, AIR’s probabilistic model for Flood, and potential market offerings
• Continuing developments related to Cyber insurance
• Drone-related exposures and coverage responses by the property-casualty insurance industry
• Developments in the Miscellaneous Professional Lines product space (Travel Agents and Salon Services for example)
• Update on the Optional Commercial Auto Class Plan developed using advanced predictive modeling
Verisk’s modeling and actuarial professionals will review these topics thoroughly: the underlying research, the rating impacts, and the considerations during product development.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jennifer Blackmore
Panelists:
John Elbl, Tim McCarthy
What Does Behavioral Economics Say about Selling Insurance?
The standard economic model assumes that consumers take a simple approach to insurance choices: They form beliefs about the likelihood of a loss (typically assumed to be relatively accurate), and then combine those beliefs with a simple risk tolerance to determine which insurance product to purchase. Behavioral economists have questioned this simple approach. This talk will describe the issues raised. How accurate are people’s beliefs? Do people use their beliefs correctly? How do consumers think about the role of deductibles. To what extent do consumers take an integrated approach to their broader insurance portfolio? What sort of idiosyncratic factors cause transient shifts in the demand for insurance?
Later during this session we will also cover how in recent years, a number of economists have studied consumers’ beliefs and risk preferences using data on consumers’ choices of insurance deductibles. We will focus on some of the lessons learned from this literature. The data seem to clearly reject the standard economic model for how people should choose their deductibles. In particular, the demand for insurance seems not to be driven by risk aversion as usually conceived by economists. Rather, it appears people are acting as if they face much larger claim rates than they actually do (while still seeming to understand how their risk compares to others). In addition, there clearly seems to be some link between consumers’ choices on different insurance coverages, but the nature of this link is not straightforward.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jennifer Blackmore
Panelists:
James Guszcza, Levon Barseghyan
Customer Centricity Beyond P&C - How Banks Transform Customer Data Into Insights, Predictions and Smarter Decisions
The information age has increased the availability of data and reduced the cost to store it. At the same time, consumers have more choices and are more informed than ever. Almost no one is short of customer information and everyone recognizes the need to change the way they interact with their customers and the need to adopt a customer centric approach. But why is it easier said than done? What are the necessary steps to get to a “true” customer centric approach?
In this session, we will demonstrate how predictive analytics is being used by banks to effectively transform structured and unstructured data from multiple channels into actionable insights for customer engagement strategies and decisioning. We will present a customer centric analytical framework roadmap that can be useful for financial services organizations, and insurance companies in particular, as they consider ways to collect and respond to changing customer expectations.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Reuven Shnaps, Adi Bar-lev
Wellness Data: The Next UBI?
Sleeping on the job has never been a fast track to success, but sleeping on the way to the job may lead to an early and unscheduled retirement. Research found that more than one-in-five fatal car accidents in the United States involves a drowsy driver. P&C insurers have long offered discounts to policyholders who attend defensive-driving courses or submit to telemetric examination of their driving habits with usage-based insurance (UBI) devices. Unfortunately, those approaches achieve only limited success because they focus on behaviors surrounding the insured asset, and not a policyholder’s larger decisions about wellness. A more effective approach might address how to minimize underlying risk factors that cause or contribute to P&C losses. This session will bring various perspectives on the relationship between “Wellness Data” and property and casualty risk, and illustrate how P&C insurers may take a nod from life insurers and potentially apply modeling to new data sources such as wearables to help improve underwriting and marketing.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jennifer Blackmore
Panelists:
Kelly Cusick, Lin Xing, Chris Stehno
How Technology and Demographic Changes Will Impact the Insurance Industry
Usage-based insurance, telematics technology and new data sources are disrupting the insurance industry in profound ways. Insurers planning for the future must also rethink product strategies for tech-savvy Millennials, who now outnumber baby boomers in the U.S. This session will provide an overview of the evolving technologies impacting auto insurance, including connected cars, driverless cars and car sharing services. We’ll also discuss Millennial preferences towards technology and insurance.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jennifer Blackmore
Panelists:
Sheri Scott, Tammy Chen
Innovative Credit Risk Opportunities
The field of credit risk is ripe with opportunities for innovative actuaries with credit risk expertise to provide valuable insights! This session will give an overview of the “actuarial advantage” we can bring to the field as well as highlight some of the most promising opportunities where this expertise will be most highly valued beyond the insurance industry. FASB’s proposed conversion to the Current Expected Credit Loss framework would fundamentally reshape the way banks and other institutions recognize credit losses and actuaries can play a pivotal role to assist in this much as they already do for insurance loss reserves. A second opportunity involves the expansion of mortgage credit risk sharing structures being utilized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae’s Connecticut Avenue Securities (CAS) and Freddie Mac’s Structured Agency Credit Risk (STACR) bonds open up a breadth of potential market players that would benefit from the deep industry knowledge brought by credit risk actuaries.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jennifer Blackmore
Panelists:
Michael Schmitz
Cybersecurity: Recent Regulatory Developments and Compliance Pitfalls
This session will focus on recent regulatory developments in the insurance industry related to cybersecurity, as well as some potential new cyber-related issues looming on the horizon. Recent activities at the National Association of Insurance Commissioners ("NAIC") will be discussed, including the Principles for Effective Cybersecurity Guidance and the Consumer Cybersecurity Bill of Rights, and how the issues surrounding these initiatives affect compliance. Activity at the state and federal level will also be discussed, including some of the most recent guidance developed by the insurance departments. Tips for working with regulators to avoid compliance pitfalls will also be shared. The last fifteen minutes of the session will be an update from the CAS task force on Cyber risk.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Fred Karlinsky, Alex Krutov
