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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
WC Trends in New York
Following a period of accelerating workers compensation (WC) costs in New York from 2000 to 2007, the state enacted legislation in 2007 with the expectation of materially reducing costs. Rather than decreasing costs, the 2007 legislation ultimately led to costs that exceeded pre-legislation levels. During the period from 2007 through 2012 the incidence of permanent partial disability (PPD) claims increased by ~30%, the average cost of PPD claims increased by ~20%, and the average benefit cost of a lost time claim increased by ~45%. Additionally, claim related expenses and assessments increased materially as well. The discussion will present the state of the New York system in 2007, briefly discuss the changes enacted in 2007, illustrate what actually occurred, and discuss the impact of 2013 legislation on future risks.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kenneth Kim
Panelists:
Scott Lefkowitz, Mark Grosso
Variance Paper: Credibility
“Recursive Credibility: Using Credibility to Blend Reserve Assumptions” by Yamashiro
When estimating loss reserves, actuaries usually give varying weights to multiple indications to arrive at their final selected indication. The common practice is to give weight to indications that have been developed to their ultimate expected amount. Alternatively, weight could be given to each recursive indication of paid and incurred losses, essentially averaging assumptions iteratively rather than waiting until the final estimate before selecting weights.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Panelists:
Marcus Yamashiro
Stress Testing – Making the Most of this Risk Management Tool
Stress tests can enable risk managers to forecast how specific scenarios affect a company, with results showing vulnerabilities, and how to avoid or mitigate unfavorable outcomes. Regulators are relying upon stress tests in lieu of complex models for assessing risks. This panel will discuss the importance of risk capital modeling with regard to regulatory requirements. Can a stress test determine what level of capital will be required contemplating all areas of risk (economic and even unforeseen areas of risk)? How can companies integrate stress tests into a capital modeling program and ensure that they are meeting regulatory requirements and best representing the interests of all their stakeholders?
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kenneth Kim
Panelists:
Michael Angelina, Sandra Santomenno, Matthew Peters
Social and Insurance Perspectives and Your Online Persona
Every day, every moment we are creating our on-line persona. Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr, credit and debit cards, paying bills, what we buy; what we sell; our eBay rating -- all these help create our on-line persona. Monitoring social media, credit card histories, on-line behavior, and spending habits augments the traditional data collected by insurance companies. Will insurers that fail to embrace this new technology survive? As their ability to identify the riskiest insureds becomes more accurate and in-real time, will their still be an insurance market for the riskiest insureds?
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kenneth Kim
Panelists:
James Weiss, Matt Hogan, Juan Cartagena
Price Optimization – Regulatory and Consumer Concerns
A defining moment seems to be looming on the price optimization front as it continues to gain traction in the US insurance market. As more carriers begin to reflect price optimization into their rating plans -- either informally or formally -- some regulators and consumer groups are pushing back. Recent regulatory action has ranged from simple inquiries to outright bans, and consumer groups have issued statements that are highly critical of the practice. The panel will discuss different perspectives on the appropriateness of price optimization within a regulated insurance environment.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Kenneth Kim
Panelists:
Claudine Modlin, Birny Birnbaum, Wesley Griffiths, Charles Angell
Lessons from Auto Insurance Reforms
Beginning with a brief history of the Ontario automobile insurance plans and reforms in Canada, the first speaker will then go over the lessons learned from these reforms and why we have another reform shortly after 2010. These lessons learned may also be relevant in other jurisdictions. The second speaker will explain the general approaches to reserving and some challenges and considerations using Ontario auto insurance as a case study.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
John Ferrara
Panelists:
Benoit Carrier, Todd Orrett, Joseph Cheng
Non-Technical Reserves Call Paper Program Session #3
Paper #1 Title: “Interpolation Hacks and Their Efficacy”
Abstract: Actuaries are consistently faced with the decision of how to interpolate loss development factors. Methods vary from linear to more theoretical. This paper explores how various methods hold up to actual data and each other by estimating errors in reserve prediction when using paid loss development, incurred loss development and Bornhuetter Ferguson methods. It also lays out a variety of methods for actuaries to use. Lastly, this paper adds an additional process to account for unique situations such as seasonal fluctuations in claims activity and features a practical tool programmed with interpolation formulae and the seasonal method.
Paper #2 Title: “Bornhuetter-Ferguson Initial Expected Losses Working Party Report”
Description: The goal of this working party was to produce a paper regarding the initial expected loss assumption in the Bornhuetter-Ferguson reserving method by leveraging initial expected loss approaches already in use. With many competent actuaries using the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method, there are probably many very good initial expected loss approaches already in use, but not documented.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
John Ferrara
Panelists:
Chandrakant Patel, Brian Brown, Lynne Bloom
Non-Technical Reserves Call Paper Program Session #2
Paper #1 Title: “Premium Deficiency Reserve Evaluation for Mortgage Insurers”
Abstract: This paper provides practical guidance for the actuary evaluating premium deficiency reserves for mortgage insurers, including a brief discussion of the premium deficiency accounting considerations for mortgage insurance, and introduces a practical deterministic approach for evaluating whether a premium deficiency reserve is necessary for mortgage insurers
AND
Paper #2 Title: “Accident Year/Development Year Interactions” (2015 Ronald Bornhuetter Loss Reserve Prize Winners)
Abstract: While traditional actuarial reserving methods assume that development patterns are stable over time, changes are often observed in practice. This paper explores the reasons for these changes and surveys the most relevant literature on methods that address the changes in development patterns. Finally, the paper suggests possible research for further improvements in reserving techniques.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
John Ferrara
Panelists:
David Clark, Diana Rangelova, David Kaye, Kenneth Easlon
Non-Technical Reserves Call Paper Program Session #1
Paper #1 “The Actuary’s Role in a Risk-Focused Statutory Examination” by Hines
Abstract: This paper is being written for the benefit of company actuaries to help them prepare for their statutory financial examination and for consulting actuaries who assist state regulators with the examination of actuarial areas. By gaining a better understanding of how examiners assess risk, company actuaries will be better prepared for the examination and be more effective at demonstrating that company controls mitigate risk. This may result in a more efficient examination process by reducing the testing procedures required by the examination team. The information presented in this paper will prepare actuaries to expand their role assisting the examiner-in-charge with all phases of the examination. An enhanced understanding of the risk-focused examination process will allow actuaries to assist with the risk assessment process, develop risk-focused testing plans for loss reserves, and add value in other actuarial areas of the examination.
AND
Paper #2 “Reserving Styles – Are Actuaries In-Sync with their Stakeholders?” by Littman
Abstract: Reserving actuaries are constantly faced with forming estimates that inherently reflect consideration of data and information that spans from initial expectations to actual claims experience. The actuaries and their stakeholders (e.g., members of management) may implicitly or explicitly apply different perspectives on the relative merits of projections based on actual experience or initial expectations, or projections that reflect a blending of the two. Apparently subtle differences in perspectives among actuaries and among various stakeholders when actual experience diverges from expectations (generating divergent projections of unpaid claim estimates) can generate substantial dialogue. The paper presents an exploration of historical progressions of recognizing accident year losses, casts light on certain implications of common actuarial methods, and provides insight on the notion of a reserving cycle akin to an underwriting cycle. The investigation provides a framework for dialogue among stakeholders to the reserving process, as well as identifies areas where actuaries may be able to enhance the technical aspects of, and their communications from, their work processes.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Paper
Moderators:
Jerry Theodorou
Panelists:
Alan Hines, Mark Littmann, Ernest Wilson
Aging Infrastructure of Transportation and Utilities
In May 2015, an Amtrak train derailment in Philadelphia killed eight people and injured more than 200. Officials say that an updated speed-limitation system could have prevented this accident.
Public transportation, utilities, roads and bridges usage continues to increase around the world, but the infrastructure needed to supply these services is not being maintained at a fast enough pace to keep up with demand. Roads and bridges are collapsing, trains are derailing, and our demand for energy and water is rising. The problem is compounded by natural catastrophes and a changing climate, which place added burdens on our infrastructure.
Can these problems be solved? Our panelists will discuss the current state of our aging infrastructure and propose ways actuaries and other risk managers can be proactive in quantifying and mitigating the associated risks.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jerry Theodorou
Panelists:
Steven Berman, Robert Beck, Brian Pallasch
CAS & You for New Fellows
The CAS is the organization that has provided New Fellows with development and learning opportunities through the examination process. Do you know the mission of the CAS, its history, or governance structure? Are you familiar with the member services available from the CAS? Members of the New Members Committee will provide this information and more. Here you will find information about the additional personal development and enrichment available through the many CAS volunteer opportunities.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jerry Theodorou
Panelists:
Shane Barnes, Kimberly Guerriero, Adina Erdfarb, Rebecca Reich, Matthew Caruso
The Promise, Peril and Threat of Big Data
Big data is rightly viewed as a means to breakthrough technological and business innovations. The “smart” technologies that increasingly surround us testify to the power of machine learning algorithms applied to massive data sets. At the same time, actuarial and social science research requires a commitment to methodological principles that currently play little role in many big data applications. These principles include understanding the data-generating process, avoiding multiple comparisons, and incorporating prior knowledge and judgment in one's statistical analysis or model design. We will discuss the promise and peril of big data and offer suggestions on the role of the data science-minded actuary in the age of big data.
We will then explore whether big data represents a threat with the potential to undermine the risk-sharing basis of insurance. Going back to the foundations of Buhlmann credibility, we will determine conditions under which an insurance market could fail as a result of affordability issues, driving a growing, and eventually unsustainably large, residual market. The flood insurance market and health insurance market are two examples where we can potentially “underwrite too well.” Will there be other lines which are currently viable, but which potentially collapse through big data-driven, granular underwriting? What are the distinguishing characteristics of such lines?
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jerry Theodorou
An Actuary's Guide on How to Present Information
An actuaries job: (1) quantify risk (2) tell someone else your findings, so they can execute. We spend a lot of time learning on (1) but not (2). But the analysis is wasted if you can't communicate effectively. The good news is, it's not hard. Come to this presentation and we'll give you some tips that you can practice in groups.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Automated Vehicles
Autonomous Vehicle Technology offers possibility to change transportation fundamentally. Autonomous cars has the potential to reduce crashes, decrease congestion, and remove constraints on occupants. In spite of the benefits, some foreseeable challenges also persist, such as liability of damage, software safety and terrorism risk. In this roundtable, we will discuss the development, benefits and obstacles of AV. Participants will be invited to share thoughts on the risks and potential opportunities AV brings to the insurance industry.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jerry Theodorou
Overview and Outlook for the P&C Insurance Industry: Trends Challenges and Opportunities
Bob Hartwig of the Insurance Information Institute will present industry financial performance in 2015 with an outlook to 2016 and beyond. He will explore the impact of recent mergers and acquisitions, alternative capital and industry performance by segment. Additional areas covered are commercial/personal pricing trends, a U.S.- insured catastrophe loss update, inflation impacts and the overall U.S. economy strength. Discussions regarding the upcoming 2016 elections and possible impacts on the industry will also be explored.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
General Session
Panelists:
Robert Hartwig
Take 3: Lights! Camera! Professionalism!
Come enjoy the acting of some fine fellow actuaries who will take on several skits involving professional dilemmas. The skits are new for 2015, but as always they will lead to some lively and educational audience discussions. You will walk away from this session with a better understanding of the ASOPs, codes of conduct and how to apply them when you face your own professional ethical dilemmas. This session may provide attendees with Professionalism Continuing Education credits.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Terry Broom
An Update from Admissions
Topics will include how CAS Admissions is addressing specific suggestions from a candidate working group session; incorporating technology into the examination process; restructuring the Admissions department and related volunteer opportunities; and other priorities for the coming year.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Christopher McKenna
Contagious: Why Things Catch On
Dr. Berger is a marketing professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and author of the recent New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestseller, Contagious: Why Things Catch On. His address will focus on key findings in his book and how they apply to the world of actuarial science. In Contagious, Berger reveals the secret science behind word-of-mouth and social transmission. He explains how six basic principles drive all sorts of things to become contagious, from consumer products and policy initiatives to workplace rumors and YouTube videos. Contagious combines groundbreaking research with powerful stories.
If you have wondered why certain stories get shared, emails get forwarded or videos go viral, Contagious explains why and shows how to leverage these concepts to craft contagious content.
Berger has spent over 15 years studying how social influence works and how it drives products and ideas to catch on. He has published dozens of articles in top-tier academic journals, has consulted for a variety of Fortune 500 companies, and had his work covered by popular outlets like the New York Times and Harvard Business Review.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
What is the Next UBI?
Usage-based insurance (UBI) has occasionally been billed as the next insurance scoring in terms of its disruptive potential and pricing accuracy. With vehicle telematics representing just one connection to the broader Internet of Things, actuaries are rightfully considering what might be the next UBI. This session will discuss how wearables, social media, genetics and other alternative data sources may help shape future predictions.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Christopher McKenna
Business Storytelling for Actuaries
Business storytelling helps actuaries focus on the larger picture in which the actuary performs a technical analysis, and helps actuaries better understand how others view the business issue at hand and how the solution meets the business challenge. Business storytelling focuses on how to present complex risk analyses in a way that is as engaging as a story, considering situations and scenarios in how the actuarial analysis would apply to an audience of decision-makers who are not actuaries. This is distinct from personal storytelling.
Beginning the week of September 28, those who register for this ½-day workshop will begin their work through email, an online community, and required webinars. The in-person session at the Annual Meeting will be the opportunity for attendees to practice what they will have learned. Separate registration required ($75). Registration closes: September 25.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Technical Session
Panelists:
Michael Larsen, Nicholas Metaxas, Jim Klann, Frederic Potvin, Ariel Chiu, Christine Luthi
Diversity in the Actuarial Profession
The CAS promotes involvement in the property/casualty profession regardless of race, ethnicity, gender, religion, age, sexual orientation, nationality, disability, appearance, military service or geographic location. The demographics of society are changing quickly, both within the US and internationally. Employers are increasingly seeing the need to have a diverse workforce to address the needs of an increasingly diverse customer base. This roundtable will expand on the diversity panel session and discuss how can the CAS become a destination for talent that represents the entire spectrum of society and help address the needs of employers and other stakeholders in the insurance marketplace.
Source:
2015 Annual Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Christopher McKenna
Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change
The long-term economic impacts of climate change are complex and uncertain. Nevertheless, reinsurers have significant incentives to understand the effects of climate change on insurance profitability, both now and in the future. This panel will discuss current research on climate change's impacts (or non-impacts) on loss experience to date. In addition, it will expand the discussion of climate change research and adaptation to consider the impacts of climate variability, as well as climate change impacts on product development and underwriting.
Source:
2014 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Donna Schlegel
Panelists:
Rick Thomas, Rita Zona, Mark Bove
The State of the Casualty Reinsurance Market
Discuss the casualty reinsurance market from three different perspectives: Reinsurer, Reinsurance Broker and the Ceding Company.
Source:
2014 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Yves Colomb
Panelists:
Will Garland, Robert Barnett, Mark James
The (Re)Insurance Industry — An Analyst View
The (re)insurance industry has evolved in how its capital has been financed. Capital from a variety of sources now supports the operation of (re)insurance companies, including Wall Street, hedge funds, and private equity. How financial analysts outside the actuarial community view the industry is critically important to understand. During this General Session session key questions will be considered by our panel of analysts: What metrics do they use to analyze results? What key performance levels are analysts and investors looking for? Where do these analysts and their clients see the industry headed? How will new capital investors respond to catastrophe losses that industry will face? And maybe most importantly, is the short-term focus for which Wall Street is famous compatible with an industry that requires a long-term perspective?
This panel will be comprised of a variety of top analysts representing a variety of viewpoints of the industry including the investor perspective, rating agency perspective, as well as overall industry perspective.
Source:
2014 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Yves Colomb
Panelists:
Matthew Mosher, Meyer Shields, Alan Zimmerman
Terrorism
TBD
Source:
2014 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Yves Colomb
Panelists:
Chris Folkman, Patricia Henry
