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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
The Idea Hunter: The Real Story of How Innovation Happens
Innovation, when does it matter and what can be done about it? Faced with threats from disruptive competitors armed with big data, new analytics, new technologies and the like, the actuarial profession is faced with a choice, to change and adapts, or hold on and stick to one’s knitting. Strategy is choice, so if the choice is to change and adapt, then innovation – process, product, or service – matters a lot and it starts with us. The Idea Hunter describes a key element of any successful innovation effort – preparing knowledge professionals – all of us – to provide the necessary leadership and energy in our innovation journey. This session discusses the real story of how innovation happens, and it starts with professionals realizing that great ideas drive progress, and systematically immersing themselves in the world of ideas all around them--finding the most important ideas, shaping, testing, and combining them, and ultimately applying them to our most pressing problems or biggest opportunities. In short, innovation doesn’t start in the lab or some eureka moment or typically, revolutionary breakthrough. It starts with, in Thomas Edison’s words, the day to day, relentless “The Hunt” for ideas. In this session you’ll be infected with the mindset and skills to become an idea hunter, and lead through ideas, and innovation.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
general, keynote
Panelists:
Andy Boynton
The Changing Face of Solvency Regulation and the Actuarial Contribution
The financial examination of an insurance company by its domestic insurance regulator has changed in the last few years. The regulators now carry out risk-focused, on-site exams (at least every 5 years) in which the insurer's corporate governance, management oversight and financial strength are evaluated, including the system of risk identification and mitigation. Find out your role as either the company actuary or the individual acting on the behalf of the regulator. What are the issues in either performing the exam or receiving the exam?
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kailan Shang
Panelists:
Kris DeFrain, Melissa Greiner, Craig Moore
The ABCD's of Counseling and Professionalism
Mike Toothman, a former member of the Actuarial Board for Counseling and Discipline (ABCD), will provide an overview of the ABCD's role and its importance to our profession. He will review ABCD processes and discuss the two primary functions of responding to requests for guidance on professional issues and considering complaints about possible violations of the of Code of Professional Conduct. Mike will lead us through hypothetical case studies similar to cases the ABCD has addressed. Lively audience participation is encouraged!
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Sharon Giffen
Panelists:
Michael Toothman
Tail Factor and Bornhuetter Ferguson Initial Expected Loss Ratio Working Parties Report
CASCOR is pleased to finally present the work of these parties. The Tail Factor Working Party has finished an exhaustive paper on tail estimation method and will present an overview of its contents. The Bornhuetter Ferguson working party is proud to announce the results of the Survey from last fall along with conclusions regarding the pros and cons of several alternatives options for initial expected loss ratio.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Sharon Giffen
Panelists:
Nancy Arico, Lynne Bloom
Structured Tools for Analyzing Another Actuary's Reserve Analysis
We are often called upon to review reserve analyses prepared by other actuaries. This course will define a set of structured tools for reviewing another actuary's work product. We will examine various methods for tracking actual emergence vs. expectations, identify the drivers of change in analyses performed at different periods in time, and compare LDFs and other assumptions to the indications from the underlying data.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Douglas Webster
Panelists:
Gerry Kirschner, Jennifer Balester
Strategic Reserving: How to Add More Value Beyond Your Traditional Reserve Review
Claims reserves are the most relevant item of the Balance Sheet of a Property and Casualty insurer. Reserving techniques are evolving at an increasing speed in response to the desire for greater transparency from Boards and Senior Management and the changing of the solvency regulatory environment around the world. Estimating claims reserve, variability and the capital adequacy implication continues to be a challenge and getting it right is key to the success of an insurance company.
We will explore ways to extract greater strategic advantage from reserve reviews:
• Importance of getting a robust reserve variability analysis and implications for capital allocation decisions
• Integrating reserving in the overall ERM and regulatory framework improves efficiency and the decision making process
• Understanding spaces for improvements in the Reinsurance program
• Hindsight performance testing to improve the whole reserving process
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Douglas Webster
Panelists:
Timothy Pratt, Alessandro Santoni, Peter Brinck
Stochastic Reserving Today and (Mostly) Tomorrow
Generally speaking, stochastic methods have been absent from the toolkit used by most actuaries. There are a number of reasons for this, including the limitations of linear methods being applied in a non-linear world. Rather than looking at such linear methods, this session will look at stochastic approaches applied to non-linear models. In one case, maximum likelihood (the same technique underlying linear regression) is used to directly estimate parameters of several non-linear models currently in common use in loss reserving, including the traditional Chain Ladder and the Cape Cod. In the other case, Bayesian approaches are presented, further freeing the reserving actuary from restrictions presented by most traditional stochastic approaches.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Douglas Webster
Panelists:
Roger Hayne, James Guszcza
Stochastic Loss Reserving with Bayesian MCMC Models
The emergence of Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) models has provided actuaries with an unprecedented flexibility in stochastic model development. Another recent development has been the posting of a database on the CAS website that consists of hundreds of loss development triangles with outcomes. This session begins by first testing the performance of the Mack model on incurred data, and the Bootstrap Overdispersed Poisson model on paid data. It then will discuss features of Bayesian MCMC models that improve the performance over the above models. These features include (1) allowing for correlation between accident years; (2) introducing a skewed distribution defined over the entire real line to deal with negative incremental paid data; and (3) allowing for a payment year trend on paid data.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Douglas Webster
Panelists:
Glenn Meyers
Reserving Methods Using Individual Claim-Level Detail
Aggregate reserving techniques such as triangle analysis dominate current actuarial practice. However, there is much to be gained by analyzing the detail that is otherwise lost when triangles are created.
Chris Gross will illustrate some of the approaches and the benefits of using predictive modeling techniques in actuarial reserving. His work ranges from adding additional insight to traditional reserving techniques by analyzing changes in case reserve adequacy or assisting with reserve segmentation, to a full reserve development model based on individual claim development and emergence behavior over the life of a claim.
Katrien Antonio will provide an overview of ongoing research, as well as practical work, related to loss reserving methods using the development of individual claims. She has two recent publications in this area that apply the technical methodology to a real data set from practice; Antonio & Plat in Scandinavian Actuarial Journal (in press), and Pigeon, Antonio & Denuit (working paper, under revision).
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Douglas Webster
Panelists:
Chris Gross, Katrien Antonio
Reserving for Medicare Set-Asides
The Medicare Secondary Payer (MSP) Act is constantly changing and impacting the industry with new regulations, guidelines, and clarifications. With the January 10thsigning of the Strengthening Medicare and Repaying Taxpayers Act (SMART Act), implications for the workers’ compensation industry are further undetermined. Questions about how CMS will implement recent reforms and decisions by CMS on the application of AWP vs. claim pricing, off-label drugs, weaning of acute medications and inclusion of denied or non-compensable injuries remain unanswered.
The Medicare Set-Aside (MSA) process—which allocates funds for future medicals for Medicare beneficiaries—remains strife with operational challenges that include long delays for CMS and contractors to review and approve an MSA, no formal appeals process, and a general lack of response by CMS. As a result, medical paid severities are increasing, claims are remaining open longer, and payers’ pending case inventories are growing at a time when payrolls have declined, the market is soft, and interest rates are miniscule.
This presentation will first examine the major issues impacting and complicating the Medicare Secondary Payer Act process, the possibility for potential change, and the associated expected outcomes.
The MSA process also brings a challenge to actuaries who have to reserve for these claims. The second part of this presentation will explore various methods that companies are using to account for these future payments.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Douglas Webster
Panelists:
Timothy Wisecarver, Robert Miccolis, Jeff Gurtcheff
Products Liability for Pharmaceuticals
The pharmaceutical industry presents many complicated issues for insurers. The volatility of these claims presents a challenge for reserving actuaries trying to predict future claims. Companies that sell products manufactured by other producers can be held liable. Other issues, such as over-the-counter medications and uncertainty of jurisdictions, also have an impact on liability claims. The recent meningitis outbreak from compounded medications will result in significant costs to insurers.
The first part of this session will give an overview of pharmaceutical claims, and legal trends that have impacted cases and the size of awards. The second part will then explore an actuarial model that can address these complex issues and help actuaries in their estimation of claims.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Douglas Webster
Panelists:
Jeremy Smith, Paul Williams
Predictive Analytics in Medical Professional Liability
The measurement of a claim's actual cost against its target cost - known as "claims leakage" - is a big concern to medical professional liability insurers that often deal with complex cases. As physicians continue to move from private practice to hospitals, the need to minimize claims leakage intensifies. By demonstrating both techniques and case studies, we will show how predictive modeling and a review of the claims management processes can help insurers identify the primary drivers of claims leakage and therefore reduce loss costs.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Douglas Webster
Panelists:
Ronald Kuehn, Lauren Cavanaugh
Practical Enterprise Risk Management
This sesion will begin with an overview of the basic principles of ERM. We will then describe a practical, step by step approach to ERM implementation based upon leading practices we have observed across the industry, including a discussion of lessons learned from less successful implementations. We will conclude with a real-world case study.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Daniel Post
Panelists:
Jeremy Smith
Workshop 2:Part IV — Multivariate Regression Models for Reserving: An R Package for Loss Reserving
This afternoon workshop session will explore the treatment of loss reserving as a multivariate regression problem. We will discuss how to properly structure the data, use of statistical diagnostics to assess the goodness of fit and model selection and how to use the model to predict future realizations. The model is presented using R. All of the underlying code is publicly available for use. Examples using publicly available data will be shown.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
workshop
Moderators:
Gary Ciardiello
Panelists:
Brian Fannin
Workshop 3:Part I — Bayesian Concepts, Computation, and Software
This first session briefly reviews fundamental concepts of the Bayesian data analysis paradigm and then introduces the MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) simulation technique. Participants will solve a simple motivating example first using only R, then by using the JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) software.
Basic familiarity with R is a prerequisite. Participants must bring their own laptops with R, RStudio and JAGS installed. Within R, the "rjags" and "ChainLadder" packages should be installed. Attendance will be limited to the first 25 registrants. A waiting list will be maintained.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
workshop
Moderators:
Gary Ciardiello
Panelists:
James Guszcza
Workshop 1:Part I — Basics of Loss Reserving
The basics of loss reserving begins with the “CAS Statement of Principles Regarding Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves,” including the definitions and considerations that guide the actuary. Following the discussion for the “Statement of Principles,” participants will work through, step-by-step, data collection and segregation, the organization of data for loss reserving, and the calculating and selectiion of loss development factors. Guided by experienced loss reserving actuaries, each participant will work independently and within a small group using Excel with realistic sets of data.
A laptop, with Excel 2007 or newer will be required for the workshop.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
workshop
Moderators:
Therese Klodnicki
Panelists:
Leslie Marlo, Peter Rauner, Michael McKnight, Donna Bono
ORSA and SII: Challenges and Opportunities for the Industry
An increasing number of countries are in the process of implementing revised Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA) regulation. The approach to arriving at an agreed set of rules for the industry has differed between Europe and US and in both cases will require significant efforts. The new solvency regimes will have an impact on the way we will do business going forward. We will provide an overview of the US and EU regimes discussing impact on:
Benefits to the Business and Markets
Products
Reinsurance structures and other forms of capital
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Stuart Hayes, Alessandro Santoni, Christian Kortebein
ORSA - Linking Risk Management, Capital Management and Strategic Planning
The requirement for companies to prepare an Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA) is intended to link an insurer’s risk profile to its capital needs and to provide a more effective way for insurers and their regulators to monitor capital requirements on a more prospective basis. This session will discuss the building blocks of a successful ORSA process, key deliverables, and practical considerations. In addition, we will review lessons learned from NAIC’s 2012 and 2013 ORSA Pilot Program.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Scott Drab
Panelists:
Maryellen Coggins, Adam Walter, Elisabetta Russo
Moving Targets: Financial Statements and Reinsurance
Reinsurance can be used as a tuning mechanism to achieve certain financial results for the primary writer, whether it be to increase underwriting capacity, improve return on capital, limit the variability of underwriting results, or limit the damage from a catastrophic event. Tuning a financial sheet is not one-size-fits-all nor is it a one-time exercise. Rather, it is a moving target that depends on aspects such as the underlying book of business, company risk appetite, cost of reinsurance, and regulatory environment.
Here, the panelists will explore a variety of reinsurance programs and what effect they have on key financial and operating metrics. They will show how these amounts and metrics change as the underlying business moves from no reinsurance to heavily reinsured, exploring the pros and cons of each scenarios from perspectives of various audiences. They will also discuss complexities and realities of achieving the desired reinsurance structure, considering changes in reinsurance cost and capacity.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Stan Smith
Panelists:
Susan Witcraft, Paul Silberbush, Kevin Downs
Modeling Variability of the Chain-Ladder Method when Factors are Selected
A practical disadvantage of the Mack Method is the requirement that the estimated link ratios conform to a set of “standard” averages, e.g., simple or volume weighted. When actuaries use judgment to select link ratios other than those standard choices, Mack’s standard error formulas are not directly applicable. A common work-around – “scaling” – understates the true uncertainty of the estimated ultimates determined by the actuary’s selections. By broadening the model underlying the Mack Method, analytical models exist that are consistent with the actuary’s selected factors, subject to certain conditions, so that the standard error estimates are directly applicable. Examples will be demonstrated using Excel and the R ChainLadder package.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Daniel Murphy, Manolis Bardis
Mixed Model Application to Reserving for Enterprise Risk Management
This session will demonstrate the application of Linear Mixed Model concepts to modeling loss reserves. The loss reserve models were built to parameterize a financial simulation model used to estimate capital requirements. The financial simulation model requires a number of inputs related to reserving to create the simulated results. The simulation model inputs related to reserving include: a reserve distribution, parameters that link loss cost changes to input from the economic scenario input file and a reserve development correlation matrix. The reserve development correlation matrix links variation from expected development for a given line of business to the deviation from expected development for other lines of business.
The Linear Mixed Models were constructed in SAS and the intent of the session is to illustrate how those techniques can be applied in practice with commonly available software to develop reserve models and estimate the correlation effect between lines. The session will also cover, briefly, why one would choose to use some form of a Mixed Model vs. Generalized Linear Model to square a triangle.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Stan Smith
Panelists:
Michael Larsen
Measuring Cats
Earnings of P&C insurance companies in recent years have been substantially affected by the occurrence of various natural catastrophes. Management has been faced with quantifying the claims costs arising from tornados, hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and winter snow and ice storms. While computer modeling of such events has advanced over time, they generally do not form the basis of an ultimate loss estimate for a specific company and event. A combination of underwriting, claims, and actuarial analyses often contribute to the estimate.
In this session, panelists will share practical approaches and insights gained from dealing with a variety of events in recent years. Topics will include recognition of premiums, interactions among underwriting, claims, and actuarial, and perspectives on the drivers of claim costs, considering the specific nature of the exposures from the different types of events.
No need to bring your protective outdoor clothing; our session will be in climate-controlled comfort!
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Stan Smith
Panelists:
Robert Bennett, Kevin Burns, Kristen Bessette
Luncheon Address: The P&C Reserving Cycle: Analysts Perspective on Recent Reserve Changes, and Where They May Be Headed
Following years of reserve releases from Property & Casualty insurers, recent trends and analyses of insurance company reserves suggest that the tide may be turning, and we may be heading into a period of reserve shortfalls. Our panelists, from their perspective of rating analyst and equity analyst of the P&C insurance industry, will offer insight on:
(1) Their overall observations on the changes in reserves held by P&C insurers
(2) Specific lines of business that are driving these trends
(3) New methods or approaches they have observed that companies are using to determine reserves or surplus
(4) How they use regulatory and/or statutory information to assess the financial strength of P&C insurance industry, and the companies they analyze
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
general
Moderators:
Stan Smith
Panelists:
Meyer Shields, Pano Karambelas
Loss Reserve Variability and Reserve Ranges
Actuaries have become accustomed to using reserve ranges to express the uncertainty in the value of loss reserves. A range can be more intuitively accessible than other more technical statistical measurements of uncertainty, and it can be a useful way to communicate uncertainty to the various stakeholders who have an interest in an insurer’s loss reserve and the risk associated with it. The price paid for this ease, however, is a lack of precision and a danger of misunderstanding and miscommunication; the phrase “range of reserves” can have many different interpretations. This session will consider some of the most common interpretations and discuss appropriate methods for estimating ranges for different audiences and in different contexts. We will look at the strengths, weaknesses, and underlying assumptions of commonly used approaches, both deterministic and stochastic.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Stan Smith
Panelists:
Matthew Killough, Heidi Sullivan
It’s January 1: Do You Know Your Reinsurer?
Two areas not easily identified when analyzing reinsurance reserves are uncollectible reinsurance and the evaluation of reinsurer security. Reinsurance has come a long way from the arcane practice that "followed the fortunes" of primary insurers. Today, reinsurance is a prime ingredient in the nature of the financial transactions that protect insurer capital and corporate risk management programs. The evaluation of the reinsurer is a key to a soundly functioning insurance mechanism. The security of a reinsurer is important not only in selecting reinsurance, but must also be monitored continuously to assure continued collectability.
Panelists will discuss what reinsurance buyers focus on in reviewing reinsurer security, tools cedants use to mitigate credit risk from reinsurers (collateral, contract language, etc.), key issues that influence the choice of reinsurance partners, and the marketplace evaluation of the financial strength of the reinsurers. This panel will provide an introduction to concepts and methods for developing estimates of uncollectible reinsurance reserves. Such reserves may be required if an insurance or reinsurance company has ceded reinsurance losses recoverable that have become uncollectible. Topics covered include sources and potential measures of uncollectible reinsurance, insolvency issues, data sources, relevant legal concepts, financial reporting issues, reinsurer ratings, contract termination issues, reserve estimation methods, and federal income tax matters.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kevin Mahoney
Panelists:
Brian Ingle, Mundia Mubyana
