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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Accounting Changes on the Horizon that Affect P&C Reserving
After many years in development, the FASB and IASB released new proposals of Insurance Contracts accounting standards in June 2013, with a comment deadline in late October 2013. The proposals are likely to change how P&C loss and LAE reserves are established and described in disclosures. Discounting and risk margins have been key elements of the Boards' discussions. Members of the CAS Accounting Changes task force will describe the latest proposals, the outlook for timing, and potential effects on P&C reserving. Whether the ultimate parent of your insurance company employer or client is based in the US or elsewhere, you should attend this session to understand how the proposals may affect your work.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Komiskey
Panelists:
Marc Oberholtzer, Gareth Kennedy
A Range Of Opinion Topics
Are you qualified to sign an opinion? Come find out!! Also learn how your opinion measures up to others. By the numbers: how many actuaries sign opinions, how many produce a range, where do companies book in relation to the actuary's estimate and are we seeing a change in this metric, and more stats. Are disclosures changing? Do regulators view use of ranges and the techniques used to derive ranges as improving or increasing? Is RMAD discussion all it could be? Are you complying with the new Actuarial Report requirements? Also learn about the Academy's Practice note on P&C Actuarial Opinions.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Komiskey
Panelists:
Mary Miller, Nicole Elliott, Lisa Slotznick
A Proposed Revision to the ASOP on Modeling
ASOP 38 “Using Models Outside the Actuaries Expertise” was adopted in June 2000, is currently the only ASOP that specifically addresses modeling, and currently applies only to Property and Casualty. A new ASOP that will deal with all forms of modeling in all practice areas was recently constructed and is currently in exposure period. In addition, a revision to ASOP 38 is currently underway, the objective being to refocus it specifically to the selection and use of catastrophe models that deal with natural perils such as hurricanes and earthquakes as well as man-made perils such as terrorism and pandemics, and will also now apply to all practice areas. Come join a lively discussion with panelists who have been involved with the creation of these two new ASOPs. Both are still in proposal phase so your feedback is encouraged as well as important.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Komiskey
Panelists:
David Otto, Kenneth Kasner
The Market Cycle and Its Impact on Reserves
We know that the market cycle impacts reserve levels as well as pricing, but does it also impact the results of actuarial methods themselves? Are certain methods better than others at different points in the cycle, or at avoiding this cyclical impact? Should we be adjusting our traditional methods for these cyclical effects?
These issues and more will be examined using historical data at various points in the market cycle. Over 30 methods will be considered and applied to historical data from multiple lines of business. The effect of using data from shorter and longer time periods on method results will be examined. Emphasis will be given to the practical results of this analysis and to what we can do in our reserve analyses today to reduce the cycle’s impact.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Komiskey
Panelists:
Susan Forray, Zach Ballweg
Global Regulation is Coming to Get You: from the IAIS Supervisors, to SII, to SII Equivalence and How This Affects the U.S.A.
This session will start by looking at the role of the IAIS and the steps it has taken in recent years to develop and harmonise global insurance regulatory standards and practices. These range from development of ICPs to the more recent development of ComFrame and the possible designation of G-SII groups.
It will then look at the development of Solvency II in Europe, and the concept of SII equivalence as it affects those countries in the first wave of assessment (Switzerland, Bermuda and Japan) and the possible implications for other countries such as US.
Finally the session will look at the development of insurance regulation and solvency standards in Bermuda and consider how this has been influenced by the IAIS and the stated desire to achieve Solvency II equivalence.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kelleen Arquette
Panelists:
David Payne, David Theaker, David Lister
Loss Sensitivity Treaty Terms
Source:
2013 CARe LAS - Reinsurance Boot Camp on Pricing Techniques
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Chuck Thayer
Experience Rating
Source:
2013 CARe LAS - Reinsurance Boot Camp on Pricing Techniques
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Dawn Happ
Catastrophe Modeling
Source:
2013 CARe LAS - Reinsurance Boot Camp on Pricing Techniques
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Ephraim Ames
Workers Compensation Excess of Loss Pricing
Source:
2013 CARe LAS - Reinsurance Boot Camp on Pricing Techniques
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Chris Svendsgaard
Reinsurance Structures and Pricing Prorata Treaties
Source:
2013 CARe LAS - Reinsurance Boot Camp on Pricing Techniques
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Josh Fishman
Property and Casualty Exposure Rating
Source:
2013 CARe LAS - Reinsurance Boot Camp on Pricing Techniques
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Kevin Hilferty
Professional Liability Pricing
Source:
2013 CARe LAS - Reinsurance Boot Camp on Pricing Techniques
Type:
affiliate
Panelists:
Jason Israel
Catastrophe Reinsurance - Traditional vs Collaterized vs Cat Bonds
Non-traditional reinsurance (collaterized, cat bonds) have been gaining popularity in the catastrophe reinsurance market in recent years.
The first speaker will explain the differences between traditional reinsurance, collaterized reinsurance and cat bonds.
The second speaker will discuss the pros and cons of each reinsurance method from a cedant's point of view.
Source:
2013 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Benoit Carrier
Calibration of Non-Life Underwriting Risk Charges and Dependency Structure from U.S. “Annual Statement” Data with Applications to Risk-Based Capital (Standard Formulas), ORSA and ERM
In this session the report authors will present highlights from the work done by the CAS Risk-Based Capital Dependency and Calibration Working Parties (DCWP). DCWP research activity was initiated because of NAIC interest in reviewing the RBC formula related to its Solvency Modernization Initiative. Some DCWP results are already published in the CAS E-Forum. One report is submitted, but not yet published. Several others are in various stages of drafting. For some, the research is underway but the write-ups have not reached draft status. The body of work described in this outline should be completed by December 2013. DCWP efforts are extensive. They will describe the DCWP approach, identify the research papers, and focus on the most interesting results and refer the audience to the underlying Reports for details.
Source:
2013 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kelleen Arquette
Panelists:
Ashley Reller
Brace Yourself for Direct Sales to Small-business Insurance Consumers!
Direct online distribution has already revolutionized personal lines insurance. The next wave of direct sales has arrived in the small-commercial market, and carriers need to be prepared regardless of whether or not they intend to take the plunge. Speakers will present new research documenting buyer appetite, needs and concerns, while addressing operational implications for analytics, underwriting, pricing and agency distribution. This session is designed both for carriers considering a direct strategy as well as those looking to develop a defensive strategy against competitors that make the move.
Source:
2013 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kelleen Arquette
Avoiding Knee Jerk Reactions to Short Term Natural Catastrophes
While Insurance companies need to be mindful of current natural catastrophe events and trends, long term weather patterns should not be ignored. Underwriters and Actuaries need to understand the long term patterns of where the events are most likely to occur, even if those events have not occurred in the short term history. This session will examine how Insurance companies can use available Natural Peril historical information to make better decisions; focusing on how to assess the full history of catastrophic events, without overreacting.
Source:
2013 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Cummings
Panelists:
Howard Kunst, Matthew Nielsen, Scott Jean
Autonomous Vehicles and the Impact on the Insurance Industry
The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration estimates that, of the crashes that result in over 30,000 fatalities each year in the US, over 90% are due at least in part to human error. Consequently, the opportunity offered by self-driving cars, to "remove" the human from that equation, represents an incredible opportunity to improve the safety of our nation's highways.
However, such a change also represents a significant challenge to the way we regulate our highways, as nearly all laws and regulations presume a human is responsible for the safe operation of the vehicle. As we move from operation based upon a human responding the an environment they observe to operation where a machine responds to data it records, how that data will be handled and used is a large and currently unresolved question. For the insurance industry, this data provides an opportunity improve the fairness and accuracy of rate setting and liability determination, but questions regarding location tracking and secondary markets for this data could prevent realization of this benefit. This panel will discuss these technical opportunities, the political and legal risks, and suggest some guidelines for moving forward in this "brave new transportation world."
Source:
2013 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Robert Peterson, Michael Stienstra, Frank Douma
ARIA Prize-Winning Paper Presentation: “Are Underwriting Cycles Real or Forecastable?” and 2013 Hachemeister Prize Presentation: "A Game-Theoretic Approach to Non-Life Insurance Markets."
Martin Boyer of the 2013 ARIA Prize will give a presentation of his and his co-authors' winning paper entitled “Are Underwriting Cycles Real or Forecastable?”
Speculative efficiency often requires that future changes in a series cannot be forecast. In contrast, series with a cyclical component would seem to be forecastable with decreases, possibly relative to a trend, during the upper part of the cycle and increases during the lower part. On the basis of autoregressive model (AR) estimates, it is now considered that there is strong evidence of cycles in insurance underwriting performance as measured by the premium-to-loss ratio. Indeed, a large literature attempts to explain this documented cyclicality. First we show that the parameter estimates from AR models do not lead to any such inference and that in the contrary, the evidence in the data is consistent with no cyclicality at all. Second, we show that a number of different filters lead to the same conclusion, that there is no evidence of in-sample or out-of-sample predictability in annual insurance underwriting performance in the United States. This means that firm profitability in the property and casualty insurance industry is not cyclical; we only observe profitability going up or down with no meaningful pattern. It consequently follows that pricing in the property and casualty insurance industry is not incompatible with that of a competitive market.
Also Christophe Dutang of the 2013 Hachemeister Prize will present his and his co-authors' paper on "A Game-Theoretic Approach to Non-Life Insurance Markets."
In this paper, we formulate a noncooperative game to model a non-life insurance market. The aim is to analyze the effects of competition between insurers through different indicators: the market premium, the solvency level, the market share and the underwriting results. Resulting premium Nash equilibria are discussed and numerically illustrated.
Source:
2013 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Cummings
Panelists:
M. Boyer, Christophe Dutang
An Introduction to Predictive Modeling
Learn about the basic steps of building, validating, and implementing a predictive model from 3 important viewpoints:
The practitioner -- how does one specify, refine, and validate a predictive model.
The manager/executive -- for an actuary managing a modeling project, what are the important questions to ask and important considerations to keep in mind when embarking on a modeling project and evaluating results.
The regulator -- what do regulators typically look for when evaluating a plan that was constructed using predictive models.
Learn about the basic steps of building, validating, and implementing a predictive model from 3 important viewpoints:
The practitioner -- how does one specify, refine, and validate a predictive model.
The manager/executive -- for an actuary managing a modeling project, what are the important questions to ask and important considerations to keep in mind when embarking on a modeling project and evaluating results.
The regulator -- what do regulators typically look for when evaluating a plan that was constructed using predictive models.
Source:
2013 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
David Cummings
Panelists:
Linda Brobeck, Dan Tevet, Anand Khare
Allocating Economic Capital to Drive Business Decisions
A methodology for allocating capital based to business segments will be presented and discussed, with broad application across P&C insurance products. In addition, specific examples of applications of the methodology will be presented, with discussion around business decision making impact and executive level acceptance.
Source:
2013 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Donald Mango, Terri Dalenta, Tim Borst
Advances in Predictive Crime Risk Analytics for Ratemaking and Fraud
Many insurers today are focused on mitigating Adverse Selection. Actuaries now have reliable, address-specific risk ratings available for hazards such as flood and earthquake, but not for crime. In this session, learn about the advances in predictive crime risk analytics from which a new, address-specific crime hazard layer has been developed with improved predictive accuracy. Discover applications in underwriting, ratemaking and fraud detection. See the data firsthand through visually engaging maps of various US locations.
Source:
2013 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Jonathan Zabek
Panelists:
Andrew Schiller, Jonathan Glick
2011 Thai Floods: Impact and Lessons Learned for Japanese Non-Life Insurers
Japan is one of the most hazardous countries in the world. Japanese non-life insurers have experienced lots of natural catastrophe losses such as earthquakes or typhoons, and most notably, the Great Tohoku Earthquake in March 2011. However, Japanese non-life insurers unexpectedly suffered their greatest insured losses from a natural catastrophe that happened outside of Japan: Thailand Floods in 2011. This presentation will first describe the impact of the Floods on Japanese insurers, the background and causes, the lessons learned from the event finally the actions taken.
Source:
2013 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Jonathan Zabek
Panelists:
Kenichi Horie, Tomohiro Yokota, Tomomi Kawakami
Variance Papers: Capital Tranching and Sufficient Initial Capital
These papers will be presented:
"Ruin Probability-Based Initial Capital of the Discrete-Time Surplus Process"
by Pairote Sattayatham, Kiat Sangaroon, and Watcharin Klongdee
This paper studies an insurance model under the regulation that the insurance company has to reserve sufficient initial capital to ensure that ruin probability does not exceed the given quantity ?. We prove the existence of the minimum initial capital. To illustrate our results, we give an example in approximating the minimum initial capital for exponential claims.
"Capital Tranching: A RAROC Approach to Assessing Reinsurance Cost Effectiveness"
by Donald Mango, John Major, Avraham Adler, and Claude Bunick
The current industry standard approach evaluates reinsurance effectiveness by calculating capital cost savings as the product of a fixed capital cost rate and the required capital that is released. Reinsurance is deemed “value-creating” if the resulting capital cost savings is more than the profit margin ceded to support the purchase—a return on risk-adjusted capital (RORAC) approach. In reality, however, insurers do not typically release capital as a result of a reinsurance purchase. Rather, capital is generally fixed for the planning cycle. Capital cannot be simultaneously fixed and risk-adjusted. Instead of a RORAC measure, a risk-adjusted return on capital (RAROC) can be calculated using fixed capital.
Source:
2013 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Steve Lehmann
Panelists:
Donald Mango, Watcharin Klongdee
Variance Paper: Reinsurance Credit Risk
Property-casualty insurance companies tend to buy reinsurance; when they do, they must address reinsurance credit risk. This paper advocates that companies should evaluate reinsurance credit risk with a market-consistent paradigm, which manifests two salient features: a probabilistic view of credit risk that assigns costs to low probability events, and a willingness to use market-based instruments for the purpose of quantifying the cost of risk. The proposed market-consistent paradigm facilitates a company’s ability and willingness to measure, hedge, and optimize reinsurance credit risk.
Source:
2013 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Neil Bodoff
Topics in Personal Lines Modeling
Panelists discuss modeling as it pertains to Homeowners Building Characteristics, the Chinese Personal Auto market, and Motorcycles.
Source:
2013 Annual Meeting
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Steve DiCenso
Panelists:
Dan Tevet, Anand Khare, Cheng-sheng Wu
