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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Resilience: How Societies Recover from Crisis and Its Application to Risk Management and Forecasting
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Guntram Werther
Property Cat: Own Your "Own View of Risk"
Property catastrophe models are filled with valuable insight in respect of cat underwriting and portfolio aggregation. Still, as recent events have shown, portfolios can perform differently than as modeled "out of the box".
This session will discuss the reasons that outsourcing completely "own view of risk" may not be prudent and explore ways, from simple to complex, that informed judgment and outside expertise can be brought to bare to use cat models to inform a truer and company-specific "own view of risk".
Panelists are both experts in this field, one a research meteorologist heavily involved guiding companies in greater understanding of cat models and shaping cat model results, the other a CEO and risk-taker at capital markets entrant in the property cat space who previously developed the multi-model adjusted view of risk in place at one of the largest cat reinsurers in the world.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Guntram Werther
Panelists:
Lixin Zeng, James Waller
Perils All Around – An Overview of WC Earthquake and Hazardous Facility Exposure
The risk of a catastrophic workers’ compensation loss arising from a large earthquake is not well understood, or even recognized. This session will provide an overview of the science, experience, and risk mitigation of these extreme events. Also touched upon will be the risk associated with proximity to hazardous facilities, and the potential for industrial accidents that reach beyond the confines of the source facility.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Guntram Werther
Panelists:
Christopher Ramarui
Oil Prices and the Great Recession: Round 2
There is considerable evidence that the Great Recession in 2008-2009 was connected with the impact of high oil prices on oil importing economies. This presentation will present evidence of how this happened, and why we could see a recurrence of this problem that will quite possibly be much worse.
Most people focus on "running out" when it comes to resource limits, such as oil limits. In fact, history seems to suggest that the impact of resource limits is financial, so keeps reappearing. Ultra low interest rates and quantitative easing seem to be hiding the impact of high oil prices now. What will happen when low interest rates rise?
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Guntram Werther
Panelists:
Gail Tverberg
Mortgage Insurance Crisis - What Have We Learned?
This session will provide a historical summary of the Mortgage Insurance line of business, including discussions of previous crises, and lessons learned from them. From there, the recent crisis will be discussed, including causes, fallout and industry reaction. Finally, the session will touch on proposed legislation, the current state of the industry, and what the future may hold.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
David McLaughry, Michael Henk
Killer Risks: Torpedoes in the Water
There are several killer risks that most organizations commonly overlook. Killer risks typically have three common characteristics: (1) they are politically difficult to discuss; (2) everyone is aware of them; and (3) they are often leading indicators of high-severity risk events. In this presentation, we identify these killer risks, discuss their root causes and characteristics, and offer suggestions on how to mitigate them. Several case studies will be discussed.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Guntram Werther
Kidnap & Ransom: Understanding the Risk
While a rare occurrence in the US, for explainable reasons, Kidnap & Ransom is very much of a headline-grabbing activity. In 1997, a $600m ransom was offered for the safe return of an industrialist's child.
This session will introduce attendees to the line of business: How big is the line? Where does on find the insurance? What does it take to be successful? What does a policy cover? The panelist will also take a deeper dive into some of the more important details: How does one "adjust a claim"? How does one fail financially in the line of business? What are current hot spots and why? How does one handicap rising hotspots? And of importance to attendees of this conference: How should one think about contagion risk in K&R? And what is available in terms of data to help understand and price the line of business?
As much as possible within a 75-minute session, we want attendees to have a working knowledge of the K&R market, its underwriting, pricing and claims practices by the end of the session.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Guntram Werther
Panelists:
Christopher Arehart, Fritz Barjon
Insuring Segments of the Aviation Market
The aviation market, while generally blessed with a good safety record, is exposed to $100m+ hull losses and $2b+ liability losses.
This session will give an overview of the main segments (airline, products, GA and Space), and review what it takes to insure these segments (limits, coverage, underwriting, pricing) including touching on some recent high profile claims. The session will also get a reinsurer perspective on pricing, modeling extreme events and exposure management/aggregation. Additionally there will be discussion around "white elephants" associated with technology, nat cat, deep vein thrombosis as well as emerging trends around increase airplane safety.
Panelists are actuaries with deep and longstanding expertise in the aviation line of business.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Guntram Werther
Panelists:
Michael Falcone, Junning Shi
Improving the Forecasting and Management of Extreme Events
This general session builds off of research by Dr. Guntram Werther. It considers and contrasts with thinkers like Nassim Taleb (The Black Swan) and Nate Silver (The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t). The discussion will focus on best practices to help better identify leading indicators for emerging rare, outlier events, and to assess behavioral and methodological capabilities in rare event forecasting. The purpose of this session is to build up a comparative advantage in participants to help them better recognize, assess and manage rare event emergences impacting their fields.
http://www.soa.org/files/research/projects/research-2013-black-swan.pdf
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Max Rudolph, Guntram Werther
Healthcare Reform and Implications on P&C
The upcoming implementation of various aspects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (or ACA) will have significant effects on the healthcare industry. This session will discuss possible repercussions in the workers compensation and professional liability lines of business, where expanded patient treatment under health insurance may have significant impacts on claimant behavior for these two lines.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Timothy Quinn, Edward Lionberger
Government Cost Projections: What Could Go Wrong?
The federal Government projects costs for Social Security and Medicare and much more. This session will consider what could go wrong as government projections are realized over time, and what would be the resultant impacts on industry and society. The session will be interactive, in that audience input will be solicited in the construction of alternative scenarios for review.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Guntram Werther
Panelists:
Frederick Kilbourne
Flood and Surge Risk in the U.S.: Modeling Approaches, Climate Change Impacts and Market Implications
On July 6, 2012 President Obama signed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act into law removing longstanding flood insurance discounts and subsidies and promoting privatization of flood insurance. On October 29, 2013 Superstorm Sandy made landfall causing tremendous flooding in New York, New Jersey and beyond. Whether or not an insurer covers the flood peril, flooding is having an increasing effect on an insurer’s book of business. Flood risk models are evolving for both inland precipitation flooding and coastal surge. Come and hear a panel discussion of on-the ground practitioners about flood insurance models, federal flood insurance, and developments in private flood insurance.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Andy Neal, Patricia Templeton-Jones, Thomas Jeffery
ERM: Rating Agencies' Perspective
This session will provide an overview of rating agencies' evaluation of insurer's enterprise risk management (ERM) program and the importance of ERM evaluation to the overall ratings of the company. It will highlight key observations of the insurance industry's ERM practices, including noted trends and developments and emerging risks, etc. This session will also discuss the use of stress scenarios testing, management’s ability to quantify risk exposure and development of economic capital model.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Li Cheng, Robert Raber
Environmental Emerging Risks and Contaminants
Pharmaceuticals, Legionella pneumophila, perfluorinated compounds, hydraulic fracturing, and endocrine disruptors are some of the emerging risks or contaminants which may be of concern for human health and the environment. Research is showing there are increases in many chemicals and microbial constituents from municipal, agricultural, and industrial sources that are being dispersed into the environment through domestic, commercial, and industrial uses. Increased attention by regulatory agencies and public awareness of emerging risks and contaminants and their impacts is causing companies to re-examine their risk management strategies to address these environmental exposures. The presentation will discuss current emerging risks and contaminants and their potential impacts on environmental insurance.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Thomas Wendling
Panelists:
Shirleen Laubenthal
Dynamic Factor Analysis to Estimate Common Trends in the Global Underwriting Cycle
The global underwriting cycle is analyzed using multivariate DFA (Dynamic Factor Analysis). The ratio of GL (General Liability) premium to (nominal) GDP is studied for 33 countries over the period 1987-2011. It is shown that the global underwriting cycle is driven primarily by the real interest rate. Further, DFA identifies a single global common trend, although the signs of the loadings on this trend vary across countries. It is discussed how to employ DFA for the analysis of risk, including scenario analysis.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Thomas Wendling
Panelists:
Frank Schmid
Data Privacy vs. Insurance Discount: Which Will Policyholders Choose?
Usage-Based insurance is quickly gaining traction in the auto marketplace and is positioned as an “everybody wins” scenario for insurers and insureds. Policyholders enrolling in programs must be willing to share detailed driving data with their insurance company in order to qualify for a discount. Terabytes of potentially sensitive telematics data amass quickly. This session will discuss a full range of topics related to data privacy of telematics data, including the insured’s perspective, how programs in the marketplace address data privacy concerns, best practices for securing data, case studies and sample response scenarios if a security breach were to occur.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Thomas Wendling
Panelists:
Jim Weiss, Kelleen Arquette
Comparative Risk Assessment of Terrorism and National Hazards
Even though risk analysts have limited predictive capability in the precise timing of catastrophe events, there is substantial capability in understanding their overall frequency, geography, size, and loss impact. With the Boston marathon bombing used as a topical illustration, the methodology of quantitative terrorism risk assessment will be presented, and compared with the risk assessment of earthquakes and hurricanes. The relative uncertainties in modeling terrorism and natural hazards will be explained.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Thomas Wendling
Panelists:
Gordon Woo
Casualty Catastrophes: Preparing for the 'Next Asbestos'
The increased sophistication of natural catastrophe modelling over the past 20 years has allowed property insurers to better measure and manage their catastrophic exposure. Now, recently developed models are available to help casualty business writers exposed to mass torts evaluate and understand their risks. These models are especially timely as many insurers develop their own internal models and desire to explicitly estimate the potential impact of casualty catastrophes. Even where it is not currently a regulatory requirement, many casualty insurers are already aware that understanding their potential exposures to mass torts is critical for continued financial integrity and an important consideration within a sophisticated enterprise risk management framework.
In this session we will define mass torts, examine the challenges insurers face when trying to model casualty catastrophes and describes approaches used to model these risks. It includes a detailed case study that illustrates how casualty catastrophe modelling can work, insights insurers can gain from the analysis, and use of embedding casualty catastrophe modelling in the underwriting process.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Thomas Wendling
Panelists:
Matthew Ball, Allan Cohen
Bounds for VaR Probabilities of Extreme Events
This session will illustrate how to compute the “best” semiparametric upper and lower bounds on value-at-risk (VaR) probabilities by solving one-dimensional and two-dimensional moment problems. We call them the “best” bounds since any distributions with the same moments will fall in the bounds with 100% certainty. These bounds can be narrowed if more information about distribution classes (e.g., unimodality) is added. The ideas to be discussed come from two papers that Dr. Ruilin Tian coauthored.
The session will start by illustrating this best approach by beginning with two simple examples: insurance losses and asset returns. Then the session will go on to discuss more involved problems, namely, calculating “best” bounds for joint extreme events when two correlated random variables are considered.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Edward Friend
Panelists:
Ruilin Tian
Big Data: Key Opportunities and Issues
Big Data is the latest catch phrase that inspires insurers to look for value out of all possible information that can be collected about their customers. This is different from classical data mining exercises because the volume of data requires one to start thinking strategically about how to capture and analyze this information.
In the first half of our session we will define and discuss the notion of Big Data. Big Data can help you better understand the risk since ignoring information collected about your customers could create adverse selection. However using Big Data has challenges such as mistaking correlation for causation and creating product risk. In addition there are operational concerns such as having your customers personal data leaked. This session will help establish key opportunities and issues with Big Data analysis. It will then focus on common strategies for working with Big Data and conclude with emerging trends in this exciting area.
In the second half of our session we will focus on a case study in the application of data analytics and predictive modeling in China’s auto insurance market. Data analytics and predictive modeling have been well adopted in China’s auto insurance business in the last 10 years. Various applications are developed for actuarial rating, underwriting, marketing and fraud detection.
In this session, the panelists will talk about some predictive modeling development projects in China according to their experiences in the fast growing market. Specifically, the presentation will cover some major differences between the US auto insurance market and the China’s auto insurance market regarding data, regulatory environment and market competitions. The panelists will also show, with real life stories, how to apply different predictive modeling techniques to address business specifics in China’s auto business.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Nihil Patel
Panelists:
Serhat Guven, Hua Lin, Jun Yan
ASOPs #46 and #47: Risk Evaluation and Treatment in ERM
This session will review the two new Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOPs) effective May 1, 2103: ASOP #46 Risk Evaluation in Enterprise Risk Management and ASOP #47 Risk Treatment in Enterprise Risk Management. Enterprise Risk Management is an emerging area of practice and as such, many actuaries may be unaware of what is and is it not considered "Enterprise Risk Management" as defined by the new ASOPs. To help give some guidance, the focus of the presentation will be on the scope of the new ASOPs. The presenter will first review key sections of the ASOPs that define or clarify the scope and then, as an experienced ERM practitioner, will outline some case studies for discussion in an attempt to clarify the applicability. Discussion will be welcome.
Source:
2013 In Focus Seminar
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Rebecca Scotchie
Panelists:
Jeffrey Pfluger
You’re Fired! – The Impact of Workforce Reductions on Evaluating Workers Compensation Reserves
A concern of risk management professionals when faced with workforce reductions is the likelihood of a surge in the number of workers compensation claims. For employers that retain substantial risk, either through self-insurance or large deductible programs, a claim surge would occur when the employer is likely least able to manage the additional cost. This discussion will examine and discuss the observed impact of a 40% workforce reduction over a three year period to the claims experience of a high hazard employer. Numerous metrics will be discussed, including, but not limited to, claim incidence, average claim cost, attorney involvement, and claim mix. The financial impact of long term latent occupational disease associated with terminated employees will be explored, as well as issues related to cumulative trauma claims filed at the time of the work force reduction. Considerations with respect to jurisdiction will also be discussed. In addition, long term changes to employee demographics will be discussed, including, but not limited to, average age at injury, compensation rate, and hazard mix. The combined impact of all of these items on estimating the cost of prior claims as well as the estimating the cost of future claim years will be addressed from an actuarial perspective.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Rebecca Scotchie
Panelists:
Scott Lefkowitz
The One Year View of Reserving Risk: Actuary in a Box vs. Emergence Patterns
This session, which was originally presented at the 2012 GIRO seminar in the UK, will compare and contrast two approaches of for estimating 1-year reserving risk: the "actuary in the box" and emergence patterns. The strengths and weaknesses or both methods will be discussed, and practical examples will also be provided. This in-depth technical session will be informative to actuaries who have encountered the need to estimate 1-year reserve risk, particularly in the context of Solvency 2.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Rebecca Scotchie
Panelists:
Peter England
The Medical Professional Liability Tort Environment
This session will discuss the medical professional liability tort environment - current, proposed and newly emergent. A diversified panel of experts will discuss where we are today and where we may be heading.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Rebecca Scotchie
Panelists:
Susan Forray, Linda Grand, Maureen Stazinski
The Impact of Changing Economic Conditions on Reserves and Reserve Variability
An investigation of the use of regression models and economic scenario generators to quantify the impact of inflation and other economic conditions on the reserving risk of P&C insurers
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kailan Shang
Panelists:
Thomas Conway, Loic Grandchamp
