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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Intermediate Track III — Case Study
Developed as a workshop, this session covers the concepts discussed in the preceding intermediate sessions. Audience members are encouraged to analyze and discuss the cases, and propose techniques to apply for estimating the loss reserves. Various techniques will be discussed and a calculator will be helpful. Laptop computers are not necessary, but if participants have them. Excel spreadsheets will be available to let participants test multiple scenarios. The spreadsheet will be available on the CAS Web Site following the seminar.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Nancy Arico, Kishen Patel
Intermediate Track II — Investigating and Detecting Change
This session will explore a variety of techniques to detect and address changes in mix of business, claim closing patterns, and case reserve adequacy. When changes in history are verified through discussion with claim, underwriting, reinsurance, and field staff, the actuary can pick the right tool for the job. Adjustments of loss reserve methodologies to account for each situation will also be discussed.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
D. Lamb, Susan Pino
Intermediate Track I — Considerations in Evaluating Changing Conditions
In an ideal situation, loss reserving would begin with a long, stable history of consistent claim experience with no significant environmental or operational changes affecting the mix of business, claim handling, or terms of coverage. However, that situation is often far from the reality. Changing conditions contribute to volatility and uncertainty in estimates that are mechanically produced. The intermediate track begins with a series of considerations that can help bring understanding of the volatility of initial estimates. These considerations lead us to diagnostic tools for clues. More complete understanding requires communication with other operating units.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Jane Taylor, Theodore Shalack
Innovation, Ideas, Teams: How to Harness the Collective IQ
Teams are frequently used to identify and implement ideas that drive important innovations in successful organizations. When leveraged correctly, teams bring together different experts, represent different perspectives inside and outside the firm, and provide exciting environments where knowledge professionals can maximize their potential. What do effective teams look like? What are the conditions for powerful team innovation? How does an organization create an idea-intensive team environment? How should such teams be led? In this workshop, we’ll carry the concepts from the IDEA HUNTER session into the team realm and study two teams using video case studies to answer these important questions.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Andy Boynton
How to Prepare for the Next "Asbestos"
Insurers bound by Solvency II will be required to explicitly estimate the potential impact of mass torts, casualty catastrophes or "binary events" as part of insurers' technical provisions. Even where it is not currently a regulatory requirement, many casualty insurers are already aware that understanding their potential exposures to mass torts is critical for continued financial integrity and an important consideration within a sophisticated enterprise risk management framework.
While natural catastrophes are normally the primary threat to a non-life insurer's short-term solvency, casualty catastrophes can also pose a risk too serious to ignore. The increased sophistication of natural catastrophe modeling over the past 20 years has allowed property insurers to better measure and manage their catastrophic exposure. Now, recently developed models are available to help casualty business writers exposed to mass torts evaluate and understand their risks. Approaches used to model these risks and some interesting results from case studies are described in this session.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kevin Mahoney
Panelists:
Yi Jing, Matthew Ball
GLM’s for Incomplete Development Triangles (Part II – Reserve Projections and Ranges)
Part II of this two session series is an interactive tutorial exploring issues encountered when using GLM’s for (incomplete) development triangles to project reserves and to simulate ranges of possible reserve outcomes. As with Part I, this session does touch on some advanced stochastic reserving topics, but it is not a presentation of a technical paper: the focus is on exploring concepts by directly working with data. Participants will be provided with a spreadsheet application that supports various model structures and that can produce a range of possible reserve outcomes using bootstrapping.
Part II is motivated by the three considerations. Firstly, practitioners are mainly interested in stochastic models for development triangles because they can be used to derive ranges of possible reserve outcomes. Hence, Part II is simply taking the topics discussed in Part I to their conclusion. Secondly, stochastic models that include the payment year dimension can be tricky: it is important that practitioners understand that projections of future payment year parameters necessarily involve an extrapolation step. Thirdly, while bootstrapping methods are widely used, their results are not always correctly interpreted.
For each learning objective there will be a brief introduction followed by hands-on exercises allowing the participants to explore the concepts on their own laptops. The learning objectives for Part II are:
1) Extending loss development methods using GLM’s with development and exposure parameters
2) Projecting reserves using GLM’s that include payment period parameters
3) Using bootstrapping to simulate the distribution of possible reserve outcomes
4) Interpreting the distribution of possible reserve outcomes and derived reserve ranges
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kevin Mahoney
Panelists:
Thomas Hartl
GLM’s for Incomplete Development Triangles (Part I – Model Design)
Part I of this two session series is an interactive tutorial exploring issues encountered when fitting GLM’s to (incomplete) development triangles. This session does touch on some advanced stochastic reserving topics, but it is not a presentation of a technical paper: the focus is on exploring concepts by directly working with data. Participants will be provided with a spreadsheet application that supports various model structures and that can produce a range of possible reserve outcomes using bootstrapping.
For each learning objective there will be a brief introduction followed by hands-on exercises allowing the participants to explore the concepts on their own laptops. The learning objectives for Part I are:
1) Setting up a model with parameters for each development and exposure period
2) Adding payment period parameters
3) Reducing the number of parameters by forming trend groups
4) Dealing with missing data points
5) Knowing how many data points are needed for a reserve projection model
The follow-up session (Part II), will explore issues encountered when projecting reserves and simulating distributions of reserve outcomes based on the models discussed during this session.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Kevin Mahoney
Panelists:
Thomas Hartl
Finalization Counts: Do They Improve Loss Reserves?
This session will present evidence to help answer the question if loss reserving models that rely on claim count data can produce better forecasts than the chain ladder model (which does not rely on counts); better in the sense of being subject to a lesser prediction error. The question at issue has been tested empirically by reference to the Meyers-Shi data set. Conclusions can be drawn on the basis the emerging numerical evidence.
The chain ladder is shown as susceptible to forecast error when applied to a portfolio characterized by material changes over time in rates of claim finalization. For this reason, emphasis is placed on the selection of such portfolios for testing. The chain ladder model is applied to a number of portfolios, and so are two other models, the Payments Per Claim Incurred (PPCI) and Payments Per Claim Finalized (PPCF), that rely on claim count data. The latter model in particular is intended to control for changes in finalization rates. Each model is used to estimate loss reserve and the associated prediction error.
A compelling narrative emerges. The chain ladder rarely performs well. Either PPCI or PPCF model produces, or both produce, superior performance, in terms of prediction error, 80% of the time. When the chain ladder produces the best performance of the three models, this appears to be accounted for by either erratic count data or rates of claim finalization that show comparatively little variation over time.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Lenard Llaguno
Panelists:
Greg Taylor
Evaluating Legislative and Administrative Reforms
This session will address the evaluation of reforms using both actuarially objective methods and subjective methods requiring knowledge and experience beyond that of actuaries. The impact on both current liabilities and prospective costs will be addressed, with examples from state and federal (Black Lung) workers’ compensation programs.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Lenard Llaguno
Panelists:
Arthur Cohen, Ian Sterling, Alex Swedlow
Economic Scenario Generator and Portfolio Management in a Low Interest Rate Environment
In the aftermath of 2008 financial crisis and the endurance of the Great Recession, the insurance industry has found itself increasingly challenged by the extended period of low interest rates. Insurance companies must take balancing efforts to prepare for both further declines in investment income and the possible rising of interest rates in the context of continued uncertainty of their insurance business. Such efforts are complicated by the dynamic relationship between assets and liabilities. Both the appropriate investment strategies and sound portfolio management are required for insurance companies to navigate through these uncharted waters.
In this session, you will learn:
What is an Economic Scenario Generator (ESG)? What are the key features of a good ESG?
How is ESG used in setting investment strategies in the current interest rate environment?
Will the low interest rates continue or increase soon? Will the challenges insurance companies are having get better or worse?
What are the best practices to manage investment portfolios across the range of economic scenarios?
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Lenard Llaguno
Panelists:
Edward Yao, Christopher Glaser
Does Your Actuarial Report Measure Up?
Actuarial Reports supporting Statements of Actuarial Opinion vary from actuary to actuary but should share common traits. Practice Notes, Actuarial Standards of Practice, and common sense can guide you through writing a report. After a quick overview / refresher of relevant Standards of Practice, join an interactive discussion to be able to assess how your reports measure up.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Shan Lin
Panelists:
Joseph Herbers, Lela Patrik, Scott Anderson
Determining the Impact of Climate Change on the Insurance Risk and the Global Community
How climate change will affect society is a complex question, and the answer depends on the temporal and spatial scales over which one is concerned, the entities of interest, judgment criteria, and the desired level of certainty. Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on insurance is similarly complex. In addition, climate change—given its potential for systemic impact—can dramatically alter the risk management landscape.
The CAS, CIA, SOA, and the AAA's Property/Casualty Extreme Events Committee have responded to this emerging risk by collaboratively commissioning committees to recommend, support, and perform research on climate change and assess the potential risk management implications for the insurance industry.
The Casualty Actuarial Society’s Climate Change Committee is the parent committee of the Climate Index Working Group (CIWG). The report, “Determining the Impact of Climate Change on Insurance Risk and the Global Community” is the product of Phase I of a multi-phase project, which was commissioned by the actuarial organizations and prepared by Solterra Solutions, with input from the CIWG.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Shan Lin
Panelists:
Nicole Homeier
Current Trends in Medical Professional Liability
Practitioners in medical professional liability are challenged by the low frequency / high severity nature of professional liability claims and the relative lack of standardized data in the industry. This session will describe the collection and analysis of claim and exposure databases. There will also be a discussion regarding current trends in claim frequency and severity, and the impact such trends would have on reserve and funding studies being prepared by actuaries.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Shan Lin
Panelists:
Christian Coleianne, Alison Milford
Current Issues in Managing Asbestos Liabilities
Panelists will discuss current issues affecting asbestos claim litigation and the management of asbestos claim liabilities. Topics will include the shifting legal landscape, discrepant epidemiological indications and continued reserve strengthening by insurers.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Shan Lin
Panelists:
Kara Raiguel, Steven Lin, Christopher Makuc
Convergence of Reinsurance and the Capital Markets: Continuing Innovation in Reinsurance Risk Transfer
Insurance-linked securities (ILS) play a prominent role in a rapidly growing alternative risk transfer market. Insurance-linked securities enable insurers, reinsurers, governments, and corporations to efficiently transfer insurance risk to the global capital markets through a variety of different structures. In this session, you will hear the perspectives of several different ILS market participants, including a primary carrier, a reinsurer, and a broker.
This session will begin with a basic introduction of insurance-linked securities, so no prior knowledge or experience is required. After explaining the basic concept and types of products, the presenters will describe several specific situations in which insurance-linked securities have provided solutions where traditional reinsurance products were not able to.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Shan Lin
Panelists:
Alex Korb, Larry McClure, William Dubinsky, James Doona
Construction Defects Overview
A construction defect can be defined as “the failure of the building or any building component to be erected in a reasonably workman like manner or to perform in the manner intended by the manufacturer or reasonably expected by the buyer, which proximately causes damage to the structure.” Because of the nature of construction defects exposure and the fact that the claims tend to be extremely litigious, it is often difficult to estimate the ultimate value of construction defects losses.
This session will provide an overview of construction defects exposure, loss reserving techniques, discuss relevant historical and recent court cases, and describe current construction defects trends and impacts of the economic downturn.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Shan Lin
Panelists:
Ronald Kozlowski, Cedric Williams
Changes to the ASOP's: ASOP 25 on Credibility and the Introductory to the Actuarial Standards of Practice
Join us and find out about recent changes to the ASOP's that will affect your work. The session panelists were a part of the committees that drafted these recent changes. These drafts are not yet finalized.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Komiskey
Panelists:
Pat Teufel
Captive Insurance: Another View
Join a pair of long-time captive practitioners for a discussion of the actuary’s role in the captive insurance market. We’ll cover some captive basics, and focus on the actuary’s interactions with regulators and captive owners throughout the captive life cycle. We’ll look at requirements for feasibility, pro-formas, funding and reserving for group and single parent captives, and review options when there is insufficient relevant data. We'll examine capital levels and reinsurance in conjunction with reserving. We'll discuss the actuary’s role in the examination process; and issues related to the various Standards of Practice.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Komiskey
Panelists:
Jeffrey Kadison, David Provost
Captive Basics and Trends for Casualty Actuaries
The objectives of this session will be to orient actuaries to what a captive is and why companies form them. Participants will learn about current captive trends and hot topics, captive structures, and the risk management, economic and tax benefits captives can bring to companies. This session will also address the captive feasibility process, the role of the actuary (both at captive formation and then annually), captive cost considerations, capitalization, benchmarking, and captive domiciles.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Komiskey
Panelists:
Kyle Mrotek, Michael Serricchio, Eric Bishop
California Workers' Compensation: Understanding the New Reform
Over the past several years, developments in the California workers compensation system including liens, dissatisfaction with permanent disability rating system and rising medical costs created a call for action. In January 2013, California began implementation of the most comprehensive workers compensation reforms in almost 10 years. The Governor’s mandate to pay for every $1 in benefit increases with $2 in system savings challenged some long-standing incentives and cost drivers. This session will dissect the issues and present new research and trends that show the challenges in monitoring and controlling the largest workers compensation jurisdiction in the country.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Komiskey
Panelists:
Alex Swedlow, Joshua Youdovin
Black Lung Liabilities – Latest Developments After Health Care Reform
This session revisits the incidence and cost of black lung claims three years after the 2010 passage the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA). The examination utilizes an approach based on commonly applied property casualty actuarial techniques to estimate the unpaid cost of losses and allocated claim expenses due to coal worker pneumoconiosis (black lung) for coal mining operations that either self-insure or retain a significant portion of the financial cost of these claims. Discussion will include use of United States Department of Labor data, how it was used, and the observed impact to date of the PPACA on these costs.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Komiskey
Panelists:
Scott Lefkowitz
Basic Track III — You Set the Reserve!
During this last session within the Basic Track, participants will receive three sets of data and will be asked to develop reserve estimates using the basic methods presented. A calculator will be helpful. Laptop computers are not necessary, but if participants have them, Excel spreadsheets will be available to let participants test multiple scenarios. The spreadsheet will also be available online following the seminar.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Christopher Lattin, Jason Kurtz
Basic Track II — Comparison of Techniques
Building on Basic Track session I, this session will present basic questions surrounding a reserve estimate: “Is it reasonable?” and “How sensitive is the estimate to alternative assumptions?” Participants will then walk through basic expected loss ratio methods, comparing them with the loss development method. Advantages and disadvantages of methods will be presented. The session will conclude by describing the Annual Statement Schedule P, with terminology and data available from that schedule.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
Marc Oberholtzer, Kurt Johnson
Basic Track I — Considerations In Evaluating Reserves
Basic understanding begins with the “CAS Statement of Principles Regarding Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves,” including the definitions and considerations that guide the actuary. Following the discussion for the “Statement of Principles,” participants will walk through, step-by-step, the most basic of reserving techniques – the loss development method. The presentation will include examples of data organization, link ratios, key assumptions, and potential problems.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Panelists:
N. Godbold, Patrick Hayden
Avoiding Malpractice Litigation
Actuaries provide professional opinions, including loss reserves feasibilities and rate levels. That makes you a prime target if things go bad. Opining that loss reserves are reasonable may look very suspicious to the receiver or liquidator of an insolvent insurer. A veteran Expert Witness on Malpractice Issues, who is a member of the ASB, will discuss Actuarial Standards of Practice, practice errors and omissions, and how to avoid similar problems, or mitigate the damage if you do get sued. Each situation will be illustrated by an actual case history, modified to protect confidentiality and embarrassment.
Source:
2013 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
concurrent
Moderators:
Mark Komiskey
Panelists:
Charles Cook
