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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Influential Public Speaking: How to Be A More Effective Technical Communicator.
More than ever, property and casualty actuaries need to speak with clarity and confidence. Communication is the top non-quantitative skill that actuaries need to succeed, according to a recent Casualty Actuarial Society survey. As former Chrysler Chairman Lee Iacocca said: "You can have brilliant ideas, but if you can't get them across, your ideas won't get you anywhere."
Participants will discover how to communicate technical content more effectively so that diverse audiences will understand and pay attention. This engaging and interactive session will assist junior actuaries who want proven public speaking tactics, and veterans who want a practical refresher on becoming a more engaging speaker.
Source:
2017 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Ron Tsang
Lights! Camera! Professionalism!
Come enjoy the acting of some fine fellow actuaries who will take on several skits involving professional dilemmas. The skits are updated for 2017, but as always they will lead to some lively and educational audience discussions. You will walk away from this session with a better understanding of the ASOPs, codes of conduct and how to apply them when you face your own professional ethical dilemmas. This session may provide attendees with Professionalism Continuing Education credits.
Source:
2017 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Patricia Teufel, Michael Chen, Kimberly Guerriero
Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Actuaries
This session will explore how climate change risks are measured scientifically, and in what ways the insurance industry could play a larger role in managing these risks. In an accessible manner and assuming no scientific background from the audience, we will review and discuss some recent results from climate science presented in the Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). In particular, we will look at both observed, documented changes in the climate, as well as projected future changes based on climate models. Next, we will turn our attention to the three potential responses -- mitigation, adaptation, and geoengineering -- and ask which provides the largest opportunity for the insurance industry. Finally, we will explore a relatively new financial product known as a weather derivative, and discuss how it can be used to manage weather risk. This last part of this session is based on the 2015 Variance paper "Incorporating Spatial Dependence and Climate Change Trends for Measuring Long-Term Temperature Derivative Risk.
Source:
2017 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Robert Erhardt
Influential Public Speaking: How to Be A More Effective Technical Communicator.
More than ever, property and casualty actuaries need to speak with clarity and confidence. Communication is the top non-quantitative skill that actuaries need to succeed, according to a recent Casualty Actuarial Society survey. As former Chrysler Chairman Lee Iacocca said: "You can have brilliant ideas, but if you can't get them across, your ideas won't get you anywhere."
Participants will discover how to communicate technical content more effectively so that diverse audiences will understand and pay attention. This engaging and interactive session will assist junior actuaries who want proven public speaking tactics, and veterans who want a practical refresher on becoming a more engaging speaker.
Source:
2017 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Ron Tsang
Stochastic Models Beyond the Bootstrap: Deploying a Stochastic Modeling Framework
This session will consist of two halves: a ‘ground-up’ introduction to Bayesian stochastic models followed by a ‘top-down’ view of what a stochastic reserving analysis might look like in practice.
The first half of this session will cover Bayesian stochastic models, highlighting the evolution from prior distribution assumptions to posterior distributions that employ likelihood functions calculated from the GLM model and reflect the specific characteristics of the empirical loss patterns
The second half of the session will focus on the practical deployment of stochastic analyses (regardless of the models/methods used). A case study will be presented showing what type of information can be gleaned from the analysis, and how this information may be presented.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alejandro Ortega
Panelists:
Emmanuel Bardis, James Mackay
Homing in on a Range: What the ASOPs Don't Tell You About Ranges and Variability
ASOPs appear more focused on actuarial central estimates (ACE) than ranges. Ranges are mentioned in ASOP 37, yet little guidance is given in how to formulate them. The CAS examination syllabus teaches many methods to calculate a central estimate, but barely mentions ranges. Yet in many contexts the range is more important than the ACE.
One speaker will use industry data to illustrate many different ways ranges can be selected in practice, and how they compare in large and small companies. He will further discuss his experience in reviewing over one hundred actuarial reports for state regulators.
Another speaker will explain how the courts and IRS have viewed ranges in determining whether loss reserves are “fair and reasonable” under federal tax regulations.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alejandro Ortega
Panelists:
Michael Solomon, Richard Riley
Distributions of Possible Losses in Each Cell of a Triangle
Most models used to fit development triangles assume distributions in each cell that imply the variance is proportional to a specific power of the mean, with only a few powers being available this way. For instance, open distributed processing (ODP) fixes the power at 1, and lognormal at 2. Often the cell variances do not conform to this assumption, creating a type of heteroscedasticity.
One practical way to address this problem is to specify the power as one more parameter to be fit. This creates greater flexibility in reserve distributions and in particular gives better estimates of the variability of the cells later in the triangle, whose variance can be understated by standard methods. Then the choice of distribution becomes about overall shape, not the variance relationship.
This can provide more accurate estimates of runoff distributions. Heavier tailed distributions like the lognormal appear to better capture other shape characteristics, like the skewness, once the variance is under control. Failing to fit this part of the triangle in distribution can be a significant contributor to mis-stated runoff probabilities.
In fact, for incremental paid triangles, the power will often be less than one, due to the severity of the small cells at the end being greater and more volatile.
A related issue in distributions within the triangle is correlation. One common assumption made is that payments across a row are strongly negatively correlated, which can make the incremental payment residuals independent. The opposite assumption is that the incremental residuals are independent, which could make the cumulative residuals positively correlated. This will be reviewed with empirical data.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jennifer Middough
Panelists:
Gary Venter
Overview of Reserve Ranges and their Practical Applications
This practical session on ranges will cover the following topics:
1) Theoretical background for ranges — Range of possible outcomes versus range of reasonable estimates and sources of uncertainty that are reflected in each of them.
2) Practicable uses of ranges — Business application of ranges and target audience.
3) ASOP guidance on uses of ranges.
4) Deterministic approaches to setting reserve ranges — Standard percentage, range formed via a variety of methods, range formed by varying assumptions.
5) Diagnostics available for assessing the reasonability of range while using deterministic methods and stochastic methods.
6) Methods for creating aggregate ranges.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jennifer Middough
Panelists:
Jeremy Smith, Cullen Maricque
Strategies for Modeling Loss Development (2)
LDFs are simple in theory but complicated in practice. How does one select LDFs with volatile data? What data should be used – broader and more stable data or finer but more volatile? How many years of data should be used? How do LDFs change when moving up retentions? These questions are posed within a statistical framework and some new methods are shown that help address these questions.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alejandro Ortega
Panelists:
Uri Korn
Individual Claims Reserving Made Easy
The session will provide an overview of a GLM reserving methodology applied to individual claims, based on a 2004 paper by Taylor and McGuire. More advanced than traditional triangle-based methods, it has the power to allow for changes in claims closure rates while also providing useful management insight to closure trends at a granular level.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alejandro Ortega
Panelists:
Patrick Yu, Paul Bailey
Making Commutations Successful
The landscape regarding commutation of a reinsurance contract is changing. Third party “involvement” while not new continues to become more prevalent due to increased portfolio transfers of cedent’s prior year portfolios. The addition of another party makes the commutation more challenging. To address this challenge a close partnership among the ceding company, third party and the reinsurer is essential to reaching a successful conclusion . This session will describe the challenges and how actuaries and commutation leaders from all parties work together to develop, propose and finalize commutations successfully.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alejandro Ortega
Panelists:
Barbara Murray, Christopher Claus, Joseph Wallen, Joseph Loggia
A Primer on Mass Tort Reserving (Live Streaming)
This will be a high level session providing background on mass tort reserving issues and why traditional methods are typically not appropriate for such claims. It is meant as an introduction to mass tort reserving for those familiar with reserving in general, but with little to no exposure to mass tort issues.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alejandro Ortega
Panelists:
Ralph Blanchard
Improved Efficiencies Through Automation and Robotics Process Automation Can Lead to Innovative Solutions
The role of the actuary has evolved quickly in the last couple of years. Margin pressure has companies looking for ways to maintain/gain a competitive advantage. Along with improved data and technology capabilities management has increased expectations of the actuarial function to provide more information, sooner. Intellectual capital needed to perform deeper dives is primarily tied up with repetitive and manual tasks. Investment in transforming the actuarial process can free up current talent, through automation and actuarial Robotics, and provide a structure for deeper dive reserve analyses, including claim-level actuarial reserving.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jennifer Middough
Panelists:
Ian Sterling, Marcela Granados, Jeffrey Drew
Rating Agency Update: Focus on Reinsurance
This session will provide an update from the major rating agencies regarding the U.S. P&C industry and global reinsurance market. This will include views on their sector outlooks, changes to their rating criteria, and updates to their capital adequacy models. In particular, we will cover how a company’s reinsurance program is considered in the rating evaluation process. Reinsurance is a significant rating criteria with respect to risk management and has quantitative implications in capital adequacy metrics and models.
Source:
2017 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Raju Bohra, Hardeep Manku
U.S. P&C Regulatory Outlook - Changes on the Horizon
The U.S. insurance industry is facing multiple regulatory influences at state, federal and international levels. These changes will have a significant impact on how (re)insurance is transacted and the financial frameworks within which companies operate. Several intersecting policy topics are being debated that will affect the balance of federal-versus-state regulatory authority as well international regulatory regimes, the evaluation of company solvency and group supervision, credit for reinsurance and requirements for collateral, and accounting frameworks and tax policy.
This session will bring together regulatory experts from the State and Federal levels as well as speakers familiar with U.S. insurance companies as well as the global reinsurance market. Specific topics to be discussed are the U.S.-EU “Covered Agreement,” Solvency II impact for the U.S., state-level reduced collateral initiatives, changes to solvency regulation, and potential changes to corporate and border taxes.
Source:
2017 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
General Session
Panelists:
Raju Bohra
An Update from Admissions
Topics will include how CAS Admissions is addressing restructuring Basic Education to reflect changes from the SOA and IAA ; specific suggestions from our candidate working group survey; incorporating technology into the examination process; related volunteer opportunities; and other priorities for the coming year.
Source:
2017 Spring Meeting
Type:
Roundtable Discussion
Panelists:
Steven Armstrong, Michelle Iarkowski
The New Associates Perspective: Advancing Your Career through the CAS
New Associates are invited to participate in this roundtable discussion about the decision to pursue a career as a property casualty actuary. The CAS has implemented an aggressive marketing strategy to attract students and new ACAS input is invaluable. We will discuss how the CAS can position itself as the best career path for aspiring actuaries. In addition, we will discuss how the CAS can improve its connection to candidates sitting for exams and better engage new members in the CAS community. This roundtable is limited to New Associates only.
Source:
2017 Spring Meeting
Type:
Roundtable Discussion
Panelists:
Kimberly Guerriero, Matthew Caruso
Hot Issues in Medical Professional Liability
The healthcare marketplace is in constant flux. In many ways, healthcare discussion cannot take place without considering the effects on the medical professional liability (MPL) arena. Our panelists will be discussing topical issues that insurers and self-insurers currently face for their MPL exposures. Topics include a state of the industry on prices, reserves, emerging risks, and innovations. Our panelists will also lead an interactive discussion on actual and perceived trends in MPL costs, risk management initiatives, and the ever-popular tort reforms.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alejandro Ortega
Panelists:
William Burns, Erik Johnson
Reserving War Stories
Have you encountered problems in doing your reserve analysis or presenting your reserve numbers to your boss or regulator? Did you over reserve or under reserve last year? Engage in a discussion with the experts on these topics.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Arthur Randolph, Camille Minogue, John Tierney
U.K. Auto/GTPL Large Claims Since 2005 — A Rollercoaster Ride of Reinsurance Rating
Announced on February 27, 2017, the change in the Ogden Discount Rate has had a dramatic affect upon the way bodily injury large claims are valued in the U.K.; it’s impact may even be felt beyond the U.K.’s Motor/GTPL XL reinsurance market.
The U.K’s. Ogden Discount Rate unexpectedly was reduced from +2.5% to -0.75%. The result is essentially an inflation shock to all open large claims across all years. Estimated deterioration in U.K. gross reserves are around $10 billion U.S., of which over half will be ceded to reinsurers, all of which will occur in H1 2017.
This rate change can be considered a real-world example of a “casualty cat.” The largest single-claimant case reserves are now reaching above $50 Million U.S. The U.K. is not alone in reducing discount rates, as real interest rates have reduced through time. Hong Kong, Bermuda and Ireland have also reduced discount rates. Which territories will be next?
Source:
2017 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Paul Silberbush, Andrew Staudt, Maryam Abdullah
Workers' Compensation Research Institute Current Studies
Studies covered in this session include:
“Recent Trends in Workers’ Compensation Claim Costs: Medical, Indemnity, and Expenses” — Benchmarking studies provide meaningful interstate comparisons for more than 60 system performance measures across 18 states, including costs per claim and cost components, timeliness of injury reporting and first indemnity payments and litigation-related expenses.
“Recent Trends in Opioid Utilization” — Frequency trends and interstate comparisons of opioid utilization across 26 states will be examined.
“Predictors of Worker Outcomes” — WCRI worker outcomes studies from 6,000 injured workers across 15 states will be presented. The body of work WCRI has accumulated from these surveys over the years and for numerous states is unique in WC research.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Alejandro Ortega
Panelists:
Vennela Thumula, Carol Telles
Introduction to R, Part Two
INTRODUCTION TO R, PART TWO
Get ready to immerse yourself in a double-concurrrent session on the single most important technological advance for actuaries since the invention of the pocket calculator.
In this double concurrent session:
• You'll know how to install R, R Studio and any of the many thousands of R packages.
• No longer will you be intimidated by the phrase "familiarity with R is assumed" that you see in descriptions for fancy-schmancy predictive modeling workshops.
• You'll be able to fetch your data, visualize your data, model your data, save your data.
Requirements for this workshop:
• A functioning laptop (PC or Mac)
• Installation of R and R Studio in advance of the workshop (instructions and support for this will be provided)
• Patience, enthusiasm and a sense of humor
Source:
2017 Spring Meeting
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Rajesh Sahasrabuddhe, Alexandra Taggart
Bayesian Loss Development: Creating An Informative Prior
Bayesian approaches to loss development are attractive because they provide a means for benchmark patterns and other prior beliefs to be incorporated. A challenge in using these models is that the prior knowledge must be explicitly quantified in the form of an informative prior distribution. In this session we will investigate how prior knowledge can be translated into a usable form. We will focus on conjugate families that allow the prior knowledge to take a form that is easy to interpret and that can be blended with new data in a simple calculation.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jennifer Middough
Panelists:
David Clark
Easy as ABCD
This session focuses on the workings of the Actuarial Board for Counseling and Discipline (ABCD) and its role in promoting good actuarial practice.
Source:
2017 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar (CLRS)
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Jennifer Middough
Panelists:
Eric Hornick, John Tierney
Making The Most Of Your Data
The ability to analyze data and communicate information has enabled actuaries to become thought leaders within their companies. But are we taking full advantage of all the data and tools at our disposal? In this session, we will establish a framework for extracting greater value out of a company's existing data sources, while also demonstrating new ways of communicating insight through visualization tools and techniques.
Source:
2017 Seminar on Reinsurance
Type:
Concurrent Session
Panelists:
Stephanie Rabin, Adam Troyer, Albert Zhou, Isaac Mashitz
