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What Actuaries and Product Managers Will Be Talking About in 2017

A scan of Insurance Journal's 'top 12 insurance trends and news stories of 2016' reveals topics such as climate change, commercial lines disintermediation, cyber, drones, ?insurtech,? opioids, presidential politics, and the sharing economy. Are these still the topics actuaries and product managers are debating a quarter into 2017 and beyond? What other major trends or developments may be bubbling beneath the surface? This roundtable aspires to help attendees and moderator better know what they are talking about.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Roundtable
Panelists: Jim Weiss

Auto Loss Cost Trends

Auto losses have been increasing lately due to a variety of likely factors. The CAS, PCI, and SOA have joined forces to explore and quantify the underlying causes of these changes. Please join us to hear about what variables we are attempting to consider and which data sources we have been able to tap in an effort to find these potential predictors. We also welcome your feedback and suggestions regarding your opinions about loss trend drivers.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Roundtable
Panelists: Jared Smollik

Update on Predictive Modeling: Usage and Applications

Predictive modeling applications have increased significantly in recent years. While continuing to explore ways to improve on the accuracy of rating structures, many carriers are now deploying predictive modeling applications across their organizations. This roundtable will explore the current usage of predictive modeling, including non-pricing applications in areas such as fraud monitoring, claims triage and target marketing. We will also explore topics such as Big Data and usage-based insurance.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Roundtable
Panelists: Klayton Southwood

How Will the IoT Impact Auto Insurance?

Connected cars, Internet of Things (IoT) and other new data sources pose challenges and opportunities to make car insurance more precise, personalized and convenient. In this roundtable, we will discuss the data sources available and the path to integration in auto insurance.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Roundtable
Panelists: Katie DeGraaf

Workers' Compensation Game Changers

Any significant new issue is fair game for this workers compensation discussion, whether favorable or unfavorable. There are environmental shifts like opt-out provisions and constitutionality challenges, but also potential innovations like the use of drones in claims investigation, medical marijuana for pain management, and prosthetics for amputation injuries. We also expect to hear opinions on current issues that may have intensified recently like the effects of inflation and the ACA. And, if the group is up for it, we will brainstorm on how the new presidential administration might impact the WC market.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Roundtable
Panelists: Timothy Mosler

Using Predictive Modeling Beyond Ratemaking

We will explore some ways insurance companies are using predictive modeling beyond ratemaking. Some examples include in the product management, underwriting, and agency/sales management spaces. If you are using predictive modeling in interesting ways beyond ratemaking, and would like to talk about it, or explore how to do it, please come join us for this engaging discussion.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Roundtable
Panelists: Peggy Brinkmann

The CAS Institute

Come explore The CAS Institute’s Certified Specialist in Predictive Analytics (CSPA) credential and find out about membership in iCAS. Learn how to achieve the credential through the Experience Practitioner Pathway. Take advantage of the opportunity to ask questions of representatives of the Leadership Advisory Council and Subject Matter Expert groups and to meet The CAS Institute’s director.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Roundtable
Panelists: Amy Brener

What Actuaries Should Know About Nonparametric Regression With Missing Data

What Actuaries Should Know About Nonparametric Regression With Missing Data by Sam Efromovich To predict one variable, called the response, given another variable, called the predictor, nonparametric regression solves this problem without any assumption about the relationship between these two random variables. Traditional data, used in nonparametric regression, is a sample from the two variables; that is, it is a matrix with two complete columns. In practical applications some observations in that matrix may be missed, and what can be done in this case is the subject of this paper. Three possible scenarios are considered. First, if the probability of missing an observation depends on its value, then no consistent estimation is possible. Second, if all predictors are available and the probability of missing the response depends on value of the predictor, then a nonparametric regression, based on complete cases, is optimal. Third, if all responses are available and the probability of missing the predictor depends on value of the response, then a special estimation procedure, based on all available observations, is optimal. The results are illustrated via examples, and possible extensions are discussed.
Source: 2017 Spring Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Peter Latshaw, Sam Efromovich

Internet of Things for International P&C Business (Live Streaming)

In the last few years, we are seeing more and more digital disruption to the global insurance industry. Technology often disrupts mature industries and profoundly changes the business models for those who choose to evolve. In this session, we will briefly discuss lessons from other industries on how disruptive technologies changes the nature of competition and business models, provide an overview of the three core digital technologies (Internet of Things, blockchain and machine learning) and how these technologies will shake the insurance industry in an unprecedented fashion. Actual examples will be shown to explain their application in customer data aggregation (entity resolution), product development and product pricing. Furthermore, we will discuss how actuaries can reinvent themselves to play a key role in the innovation process.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Lijuan Zhang, Yuxiang Lei, James Dodge

Claims Level Analytics

The natural progression of technology has made it possible to accumulate very granular data about policies, claims, exposures, and other related data. At the moment, actuarial literature regarding how to analyze such data and integrate the results into insurers’ processes is quite sparse. As a result, P&C actuaries are insufficiently prepared to take advantage of this opportunity or even to support the assumption that investment in technology, software, and research is justified. The CAS Claims Level Analytics Working Party has been charged with investigating existing actuarial literature regarding claims level analytics and the tools and methods necessary for analyzing claim level data. In this session, we will present findings of the working party, including a discussion of the benefits and challenges of using claim level analytics for claims departments, pricing, reserving, ERM and reinsurance. We will also present a variety of claims level models, and discuss how those models can be integrated into insurers' processes, as well as discuss a unified model that could underlie both pricing and reserving and provide useful inputs for claim departments.
Source: 2017 Spring Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Christopher Gross, Michael Henk, Ronald Lettofsky

Focus on New Fellows: Volunteering, Millennials, and the Growing CAS

The CAS provided New Fellows with development and learning opportunities through the examinations process. Now that you’re finished with exams, do you know services are available to you? Do you wish there were additional services available? New members make up over 1/3 of CAS membership and will guide CAS success into the future. In this interactive session, the CAS New Members Committee will discuss their role in the CAS as millennials and volunteers, and ask what CAS membership means to you. Please come to share your thoughts and ideas on the future of the CAS. New Fellows are encouraged to attend.
Source: 2017 Spring Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Kathryn Walker, Kimberly Guerriero, Matthew Caruso, Pammi Yeung

Wildfire and Flood Situation in North America

North America has experienced significant wildfire and flood catastrophes in recent years. The May 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire in Alberta will be the costliest insured disaster in Canadian history and the August 2016 Louisiana Flood, the worst US disaster since the October 2012 Hurricane Sandy. Multiple wildfires occurred on the West Coast in 2015, Toronto went through a large storm and flash flooding in July 2013. In the US, there has also been an ongoing political and insurance industry debate over how to provide more affordable and robust flood coverage than currently provided by FEMA. Some Canadian companies recently started to provide private flood insurance. The first speaker will talk about Flood modeling in the US and Canada. He will also discuss the issues around Wildfire modeling. The second speaker will discuss how flood insurance could be privatized and the challenges to overcome for privatization.
Source: 2017 Spring Meeting
Type: General Session
Panelists: Steven Jakubowski, Benoit Carrier, Ned Dolese

Current Applications of Microinsurance Innovations

Members of the CAS Working Party researching micro-insurance will present selected findings. Description: P&C micro-insurance products range from on-demand coverage for personal articles to sensor-based drought coverage in Zimbabwe. In this session members of the CAS Microinsurance Working Party will present why organizations may want to consider micro-insurance in their strategies and how actuaries can get involved. Specific areas considered will be market selection, measuring impact, developing products, and understanding micro coverage needs in mature markets.
Source: 2017 Spring Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Tom Johansmeyer, Jim Weiss, Scott Swanay, Barbara Chabbaga

Increase Precision in Auto Territory Rating (2)

Territorial rating is one of the key elements in auto insurance ratemaking. A territory is defined as a cohort of zip codes or adjacent geographic units with similar loss experience. Auto insurers analyze historical loss experience by garaging location to calculate territorial relativities. Often times, insurers are not allowed to use the indicated relativities due to regulatory constraints governing a territorial plan. This study examines the accident information, and related claim frequency, severity and loss cost by loss location as well as garaging location to calculate a score that can potentially be used in conjunction with insurer's existing territorial plan to improve rate adequacy for individual territories.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Hicham Elhassani, Prince Kohli, Joy Tang

Price Optimization: Regulatory Overview and Permitted Practices (2)

This session will provide an overview of the price optimization debate, including how price optimization is defined, the historical development of price optimization in insurance, NAIC and state activity, and other ongoing developments. The presenters will also discuss the development of price optimization ratemaking practices, how the practice has evolved, and some fundamentals of how price optimization works from a non-technical perspective, as well as regulators' reactions to this modern practice. Understand the current state of the price optimization debate. Know what price optimization is (and is not). Understand the mechanics of price optimization.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Fred Karlinsky, Ryan Purdy

Lights! Camera! Professionalism! (2)

Come enjoy the acting of some fine fellow actuaries who will take on several skits involving professional dilemmas. The skits are new for 2017, but as always they will lead to some lively and educational audience discussions. You will walk away from this session with a better understanding of the ASOPs, codes of conduct and how to apply them when you face your own professional ethical dilemmas. This session may provide attendees with Professionalism Continuing Education credits.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Jennifer Vincent, Michael Chen, Brandon Shain

Easy Tree-sy: Everyday Applications for Decision Trees (2)

This session will cover the background/theory behind decision trees, their benefits and drawbacks, a demonstration of fitting decision trees with free software, and example applications of decision trees for data exploration, GLM residual analysis, and underwriting analysis.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Daniel Murphy, Linda Brobeck, Peggy Brinkmann

Evolution in Technology and Demographics: An Impact on the Insurance Industry (Live Streaming)

Homeowners and Auto insurance are evolving in response to technological advancements and demographic changes. We will start with an overview of the evolution of insurance including how technology impacts the way we capture insurance exposure for homeowners and auto and how it impacts rates. We will then shift to the impact of the autonomous vehicle on insurance, then latest advancements in connected home products and potential impacts for insurance companies.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Sheri Scott, Thomas Smith

Evolution in Business Models for Insurance

InsureTech companies are flooding the landscape of the insurance industry. These innovators seek to challenge traditional business models for insurance, leveraging advancements in technology and creative thinking to deliver new products and differentiated levels of service to customers. In this session we will hear from InsureTech companies who are shaking up the insurance landscape, exploring new business models for the sharing economy and peer to peer insurance, and consider the implications of these innovations on the actuarial community.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Kelly Cusick, Michael Fitzgibbon, John Peters

Rogue Actuary: A Professionalism and Predictive Modeling Story (2)

During the past decade, predictive modeling has increasingly become part of many actuaries' job descriptions. Whether building predictive models, inserting them as inputs to the pricing decision-making and implementation process with business partners, or supporting them in rate filings, actuaries are often asked for their opinions on issues that relate to the ethics of the profession. This session has been given at several previous RPM seminars and the interactive format will remain the same, although the scenarios have been refreshed. Scenarios that touch on common issues around predictive modeling will be presented, including how those issues relate to the Code of Conduct, Statement of Principles, and Standard of Practice. Audience participation is highly encouraged. May the Professionalism be with you.
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Nathan Hubbell, Brent Petzoldt

Multi-Product Optimization: Challenges and Opportunities (2)

"When trying to understand the customer decision making process it is easiest for us to break the customer decisions into independent, discrete choices: “Will I renew my auto policy?”, “Will I add my motorcycle this year?”, “Will I cancel my homeowners policy before renewal?”. These decisions are not made in a vacuum, even though that is the easiest way for us to model them. The real decision making process is a highly complex one which takes information across multiple products into account. In this session we will dive into the complexity of multi-product optimization. We will begin by discussing the advantages of a holistic view for customer decision modeling and then analyze the barriers to adopting a multi-product optimization strategy. Attendees will leave with a practical roadmap of steps they can follow in order pave the way for multi-term optimization. "
Source: 2017 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Drew Lawyer, Bruno Tremblay, Adi Bar-Lev

An Update from Admissions

Topics will include how CAS Admissions is addressing specific suggestions from a candidate working group session; incorporating technology into the examination process; restructuring the Admissions department and related volunteer opportunities; and other priorities for the coming year. Candidates are welcome to attend to interact with the presenters.
Source: 2017 Spring Meeting
Type: Concurrent Session
Panelists: Steven Armstrong, Michelle Iarkowski

W3 - Model Governance: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Source: 2016 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Workshop
Panelists: David Paul,David Payne,Chad Runchey,Dwayne Husbands

W1 - Master Class: Managing Value and Capital in Insurance

Source: 2016 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: Workshop
Panelists: Thomas Wilson

G4 - Generational Diversity and the Impact on Strategic Risk

Source: 2016 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium
Type: General Session
Moderators: Elaine Lajeunesse
Panelists: Nora Spinks,Elaine Lajeunesse