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STAY TUNED! If you are anticipating additional search filters by attribute and level to align with the CAS Capability Model, it is coming later this Summer. As the CAS begins to code recorded sessions by specific attributes and levels (starting with the 2023 Annual Meeting), these will be tagged in the CAS database of presentations going forward and should be searchable.
But you may use the Capability Model now to help you identify topics. For example, if you want to move up one level under the content area “Functional Expertise,” you may search topics in the particular functional area to expand your knowledge.
Recorded content is searchable by Capability Model attribute and level in the CAS Online Library.
Predictive Modeling - Advanced
A Laptop is required for this workshop.
Although the General Sessionized Linear Model (GLM) is a natural foundation for much actuarial work, it is best viewed as a starting point, not the last word on the subject. This day-long, hands-on, R-based workshop will discuss a variety of statistical learning methods that either refine or serve as complements to the GLM framework. General Sessionized Additive Models [GAM] will be discussed as a means to capture potentially complex nonlinear relationships.
Multilevel/hierarchical models, ridge regression, and lasso regression will be discussed as a way of achieving shrinkage ("credibility weighting") effects within linear models.
Various forms of tree-based modeling (CART, random forests, boosted trees) will be used to exemplify the use of non-parametric, machine learning, and ensemble methods. Time permitting, other machine learning methods such as support vector machines [SVM] and artificial neural networks [ANN] will also be discussed. Core themes such as the bias-variance tradeoff and cross-validation will be woven throughout the presentation. The workshop will assume a working knowledge of the R statistical computing environment and GLM modeling.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Workshop
Panelists:
James Guszcza, Brian Hartman, Steven Berman
Basic Ratemaking
Basic Ratemaking Part I - Exploring the Fundamental Insurance Equation
The fundamental insurance equation is the foundation of the ratemaking process. This session will include techniques for adjusting historical data to estimate its various components, premiums, losses, expenses, and profit, in the relevant pricing time period. The session will conclude by briefly exploring other considerations company management should make, along with the cost-based rate indication derived from the fundamental insurance equation, to determine what rates to charge in practice.
Basic Ratemaking Part II - Ratemaking
This session will examine the various methods that actuaries use to allocate overall average rates to various subdivisions of a line of business, including territories, classifications, and tiers. Some of the methods discussed will consist of univariate, multivariate, and General Sessionized linear modeling techniques.
Basic Ratemaking Part III - Estimating Claim Liabilities
This session will focus on estimating claim liabilities including development factor techniques, advantages and disadvantages of different methods, diagnostics of the various methods, and practical considerations.
Basic Ratemaking Part IV - Large Account Pricing
This session will examine the differences between large accounts and small accounts, and how they can and should be treated differently from an insurance pricing perspective. Participants will be introduced to pricing methods that both utilize the increased credibility of large account experience and recognize the uniqueness of each risk. Specifically, this session will serve as an introduction to experience rating, schedule rating, and retrospective rating.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
Brian Hartman
Panelists:
Christopher Cooksey, Alejandro Ortega, Josh Taub, Patrick Stapleton
Introduction to R
A Laptop is required for this workshop.
Are you one of the millions of actuaries around the world who wish they could draw maps showing the progress of hurricanes, fit General Sessionized linear models to predict sporting events, create complex Monte Carlo simulations, or fit loss distributions? Or maybe you're the sort of person who wants to fit a stochastic reserving model and have a computer display stacks of pretty pictures for you. Do you want one point of access for all of your Excel, text, database and web-based data? Are you fascinated by programmers whose first names begin with the letter "R"?
If that's the sort of person you are, this is the workshop for you. And if none of those people is you, maybe all you want is to be able to get R to work for your computer. We can take care of that too.
R is the single most important technological advance for actuaries since the invention of the pocket calculator. Come see what all the fuss is about.
Requirements for this workshop:
• A functioning laptop (PC or Mac)
• Installation of R and RStudio in advance of the workshop (instructions and support for this will be provided)
• Patience, enthusiasm and a sense of humor (instructions for this are available upon request)
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
Brian Hartman
Panelists:
Gary Wang, Brian Fannin, Ran Li
Product Development
This workshop will explore the different stages of product development with hands on exercises for the attendee. Industry leaders will serve as facilitators to review historical processes and to help guide the attendees throughout the day. Attendees will work in teams to develop fictitious products that will be discussed and integrated into the facilitator's lesson plans.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
Brian Hartman
Panelists:
Brett Nunes, Robin Harbage, Damon Lay, Donald Hendriks, Kelly Cusick, Thomas Hess
Predictive Modeling - Basic
A Laptop is required for this workshop.
This popular, hands-on, interactive predictive modeling workshop has been offered at the RPM seminar now for several years. It will be conducted exclusively in the R statistical computing language, which is widely adopted by statisticians and data scientists.
The course will provide a refresher of regression theory before proceeding to a variety of practical modeling applications and case studies. The focus will be on General Sessionized linear models (GLMs) — their specification, interpretation, and validation. A variety of distributions will be covered, including classical, Poisson, logistic, gamma, and Tweedie. Other topics will be discussed and illustrated as time permits. All datasets will be distributed to attendees prior to the seminar.
Important note: familiarity with R is assumed. An "introduction to R" presentation will be distributed before the seminar which will contain a primer on basic features and statistical functions, as well as installation instructions, that will enable beginners to get up to speed. While R beginners are encouraged to attend, they should make some attempt to become comfortable with the language prior to the workshop. This workshop has been designed for beginning predictive modelers, but more experienced modelers seeking a refresher or a deeper working knowledge of R have attended past workshops and expressed satisfaction with the coverage of topics.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Workshop
Panelists:
Jason Russ, Mark Goldburd
Severe Weather
Severe Weather Part I - Science Behind the Models - AIR
In this Science session, the presenter from AIR will speak about the science behind their Hurricane models.
Severe Weather Part II - Science Behind the Models - RMS
In this Science session, the presenter from RMS will speak about the science behind the various Convective Storm models provided.
Severe Weather Part III - Science Behind the Models - CoreLogic
In this Science session, the presenter from CoreLogic will speak about the science behind the various Flood models provided.
Severe Weather Part IV - Mapping the Weather
In this session, we will learn how companies can use mapping techniques/software to help them better understand their risks to Natural Catastrophes.
Severe Weather Part V - Climate Change Panel
In this session, we will have a panel of actuaries from the Climate Change Committee discuss the work they have done with Climate change, and the Actuarial Climate Risk Index.
Severe Weather Part VI - A Regulatory Perspective
This session will highlight a viewpoint on the use of actual and modeled weather data from a regulatory perspective.
Severe Weather Part VII - A Pricing Example
In this session, we will highlight how weather data, more specifically modeled flood data, can be used do develop a rating plan.
Severe Weather Part VIII - Alternative Uses of Weather Models
In this session, our speaker will present information as to how weather models are used in some alternative models and processes within the Insurance Industry.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Workshop
Moderators:
Brian Hartman
Panelists:
Thomas Larsen, Ira Robbin, Rita Zona, Robert Lee, Nancy Watkins, Garrett Bradford, Stephen Kolk, Kevin Van Leer, Karthik Ramanathan
Assessing the Damage: Medicare’s Impact on Claims Handling and Settlement
Medicare Secondary Payer (MSP) compliance issues continue to complicate claims handling and settlement practices. From rising Medicare set-aside allocation amounts to new renewed emphasis on conditional payment recovery, Medicare is clearly taking a more active role in the claims arena. When the dust settles, claims payers are left to battle increasing claims costs and new areas of risk. This session breaks down the major MSP compliance issues and how they impact claims payers’ bottom line.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Brian Hartman
Panelists:
Mark Popolizio
Politics and the Future of the Affordable Care Act
Please join Michael Walters and Jerry Frye as they discuss the current positions of the presidential candidates regarding health care and the repeal or refinement of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). Their presentations will be followed by an open discussion of the implications of changes to the ACA on property-casualty lines of business as well as opportunities for property-casualty actuaries.
Michael Walters is a Fellow and past president of the Casualty Actuarial Society. Mr. Walters has spent five years designing and publishing a system to replace the ACA with one that achieves the original goals of the ACA without a massive federal intrusion in America's health care systems. A key aspect of his system is to let states innovate so the best ultimate plans can emerge at the state level. Frankly, the federal government may not even have the authority under Article I Section 8 of the Constitution to force a single plan onto the states - even if one single plan emerged as the best one. He has also spent considerable effort in advising candidates and their staff on ways to replace the ACA while still using state-level authority.
Jerry Frye is president and owner of BSG Analytics, a subsidiary of the benefits consulting firm he co-founded in 1987. BSG Analytics provides data analytics consulting to integrated health care systems in the Midwest. A close advisor on health care to politicians on a local and national level, Jerry will give insight into the political reality facing our next President should he or she attempt to repeal or change the ACA.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Lynne Wehmueller
Panelists:
Michael Walters, Kevin Donnelly, Gerald Frye
Extracting Information from Workers Compensation Claim Adjusters’ Notes to Improve Predictive Modeling Results
Workers compensation claim adjusters’ notes often contain a significant amount of information on major medical treatments, attorney involvement, comorbidities, and pre-existing conditions. This information often appears in the adjusters’ notes prior to capture in structured data and often is not captured in the structured data. For example, comments in adjusters’ notes that the injured worker “needs surgery” is often found several weeks prior to a payment appearing in the payment or detailed medical data. Further, comments on comorbidities, such as “has a heart condition” or “is diabetic”, may not be captured in the structured data. This session will describe how this information can be extracted from adjusters’ notes and incorporated in workers compensation predictive models. The results from prior work have found that information from adjusters’ notes improves modeling results, with favorable results on improved claim triage and lower claim costs.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Lynne Wehmueller
Panelists:
Philip Borba, Sheri Scott
Using Predictive Modeling for Workers Compensation Ratemaking
During the session, we will demonstrate how to design the predictive model to refine both policy level and class level rates, develop a tiering structure, and how to create highly predictive variables from data you did not even know you had.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Lynne Wehmueller
Panelists:
Philip Borba, Sheri Scott
Workers Compensation—State of the Market
An overview of the current state of the workers compensation line will be presented, including a review of financial results, recent trends, legislative activity, and a discussion of where the line might be headed.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Lynne Wehmueller
Panelists:
Angela McGhee, Cary Ginter
Nontraditional Usage-Based Insurance
Usage-based auto insurance (UBI) is beginning to be defined by new data sources and business models. An increased understanding is developing of UBI's potential for commercial lines in areas ranging from risk assessment to loss control. Government and industry are exploring rich driving data sources such as the NHTSA's Naturalistic Driving Study. This session will offer perspectives from inside and outside the industry regarding the future of UBI.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mathew Stordy
Panelists:
Allen Greenberg
Modeling and Analytics in a UBI Setting
This session will discuss considerations related to data handling, variable selection, predictive modeling, performance measurement, and program implementation in usage-based auto insurance (UBI). The session will include a carrier perspective as well as content from the UBI chapter of the upcoming textbook Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science (Volume 2).
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mathew Stordy
Panelists:
Greg Hayward, Jim Weiss, Udi Makov
Technologies and Methods Competing for Dominance Over UBI
The red hot UBI space had been inundated with a variety of technological approaches in recent years including Cellular OBD Devices, Smart Phone Apps, OEM Embedded Telematics, Hybrid & Alternative OBD Devices, and Verified Odometer Readings. This session will include discussion of the pros and cons of the various approaches covering topics such as: Cost, Reliability, Privacy, and Marginal Services and Functions. Many challenges also exist regarding how to harness the large quantities of data collected by UBI devices -- particularly with respect to storage, computation, aggregation and modelling, as well as how to bridge this new concept with current GLM modelling practices.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mathew Stordy
Panelists:
Margaret Brinkmann, Ryan Morrison, Chris Carver
Data Analytics Provider/Automaker Partnerships: Paving the Way for Better Telematics Data and Analytics
A telematics data exchange, based on a data analytics provider/automaker partnership, gives insurers access to connected-car information in an easily usable format. This can help pave the way for new and innovative UBI programs.
• What are the constraints of typical telematics data collection methods?
• How does a telematics data exchange help auto manufacturers capitalize on connected-car data without all the strategic and operational challenges of multiple insurer relationships?
• How does a data exchange improve the quality of telematics data and analytics?
• How can it benefit automakers, insurers, and consumers?
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Mathew Stordy
Panelists:
Jim Levendusky
How Does The Small Company Play in the Big UBI Pond?
The use of telematics data is revolutionizing the auto insurance industry. Implementing a successful UBI product—as opposed to a pilot test--requires significant resources from across the organization and a sizable data pool and special techniques to build and effective score, giving large companies a sizable advantage in this evolving area. This advantage will only get more pronounced as companies begin to need to leverage data from multiple sources (e.g., various OEMs) rather than a single telematics service provider (TSP).
This session will highlight important things for small companies should consider to implement a UBI program that will be effective in the short- and long-run.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Marcus Yamashiro
Panelists:
Chester Szczepanski, Geoff Werner, Ben Dailey
UBI: How To Make the U Stand for Ubiquitous
Usage-based insurance is growing rapidly for the early adopters who have learned the ropes. This session will focus on what are the next steps to create wide adoption of UBI through access to telematics data from multiple technology sources.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Concurrent Session
Moderators:
Marcus Yamashiro
Panelists:
Robin Harbage
Future of Small Commercial Lines Distribution
As carriers increase their level of rate refinement and seek to more efficiently allocate resources, “straight-through processing” has become the common buzzword in the small commercial market. Many companies have moved to a distribution model where most risks are processed exclusively by agents but what will the future model look like? Will a direct-to-consumer web-based approach eventually make the independent agent obsolete for small commercial and how long will it take to get there?
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Roundtable
Panelists:
Chris McKenna
“Big Data” in the Insurance Sector
Presently, genuine “big” data is less prevalent in the insurance sector than in some other industries. But there is significant value in “smart” analytics via data set linkage and penetration. External data enrichment, telematics, the IoT and clever insurance customer apps will shift the paradigm. Smart analytics will then shift towards what data to keep and how to remove the noise. Let’s share and discuss your experiences and insights.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Roundtable
Panelists:
Lu Li
Emergence of Driver Behavior Data
UBI data sources for driving behavior is emerging from multiple data providers; OEM's, telecoms, app providers, etc. Questions to be answered include who controls the data, how do insurers receive fair access to this data for marketing, sales, underwriting, pricing and how are the consumer privacy rights protected?
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Roundtable
Panelists:
Robin Harbage
Around the Property and Casualty Insurance World
This is an opportunity for those with practical experience in different countries around the world to share their unique and distinctive features of different markets they have worked in.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Roundtable
Panelists:
Nicholas Chee Lek Yeo
Advanced Aspects of Territory Modeling
This session will focus on two aspects of territory modeling: 1.) the underlying statistical methods to support granular territory segmentation and 2.) external geo-centric data which enhances the understanding of loss.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Roundtable
Panelists:
Drew Lawyer
Updates on Automated Vehicles:  The Latest Industry News and CAS Research
Autonomous Vehicle Technology offers the possibility to change transportation fundamentally. In this roundtable, we will discuss the latest industry news and developments surrounding this technology as well as CAS research on the topic. Participants are encouraged to share their thoughts and any potential insight on the risks and potential opportunities Autonomous Vehicles bring to the insurance industry.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Roundtable
Panelists:
Allen Greenberg
Predictive Modeling: Current Usage and Applications
Predictive modeling applications have increased significantly in recent years and evidence of value and improvements in performance are clear. This roundtable will explore the current usage of predictive modeling, including non-pricing applications in areas such as fraud monitoring, claims triage and target marketing. We will also explore topics such as Big Data and usage-based insurance.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Roundtable
Panelists:
Klayton Southwood
CAS Institute
The CAS Institute, iCAS for short, was created by the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) as an organization to promote expertise for quantitative professionals in certain specialty areas. One of the first objectives for iCAS is offering new credentials that recognize the professional abilities and skills of quantitative specialists. The CAS Institute will develop a curriculum for each of its offered specialty areas, initially covering advanced quantitative topics such as predictive analytics and data science. Members of the iCAS Council and Expert Panel will share information and answer questions regarding The CAS Institute during this roundtable discussion.
Source:
2016 Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Type:
Roundtable
Panelists:
Robert Miccolis
